18 July 2007

1. "Kurd rebels to Turkey: avoid "strategic mistake", with Turkey massing troops on its border with Iraq, a key leader of Kurdish rebels said a cross-border attack would be a "strategic mistake" and called for talks to end more than two decades of fighting.

2. "Kurds wield hand in vote", a leader of about 2,000 Kurdish rebels with a presence in Iraq that threatens to spark a Turkish invasion says his group seeks greater democratic representation in Turkey and not an independent state.

3. "Turkey: Kurds, Iran and Prodding the United States", Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 17 defended a preliminary natural gas deal with Iran to carry natural gas to Europe following strong criticism of the agreement from the White House. With U.S.-Turkish relations taking a serious hit from the Iraq war and its aftermath, Turkey is clearly sending a political message to the United States that it still has a number of ways to pressure Washington into cracking down on Kurdistan Workers' Party rebels in northern Iraq.

4. "Turkish PM will 'quit politics' if he cannot rule alone", Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday that he would quit politics if his Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to get enough votes to run the country on its own in Sunday's election.

5. "Turkey in turmoil as snap poll nears", Turkey heads to the polls on Sunday for a snap election called to end a dangerous political crisis, but many analysts believe that whatever the outcome the root causes are likely to remain.

6. "The Dream of a Civil Constitution", when one looks at pre-election promises, mainstream political parties are suddenly keen to promise a new, more democratic constitution. The track record of the current government and other parties suggests that many of these promises will not be kept.

7. "Two soldiers, Kurdish rebel killed in fighting in southeastern Turkey", two Turkish soldiers and a Kurdish rebel were killed in a clash in the country's restive southeast, the army said Tuesday.

8. "Turkey must step up reforms after election", Turkey needs to accelerate its reforms after Sunday's general election to kick-start its stalled effort to join the European Union, the EU's enlargement chief said in a newspaper interview on Tuesday.

1. - Reuters - "Kurd rebels to Turkey: avoid "strategic mistake":

ARBIL / 17 July 2007 / by Shamal Aqrawi

With Turkey massing troops on its border with Iraq, a key leader of Kurdish rebels said a cross-border attack would be a "strategic mistake" and called for talks to end more than two decades of fighting.

Abdul Rahman Chaderchi, a senior official of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), said a strike into northern Iraq would unite Kurds on either side of the border against Turkey and bring Turkish troops face-to-face with U.S. forces stationed in northern Iraq.

Rumours of a possible Turkish incursion into neighbouring, mainly Kurdish northern Iraq have rattled financial markets and have drawn warnings from the United States, Ankara's NATO ally, to stay out.

"This would be a strategic mistake with profound implications for the Middle East," Chaderchi told Reuters by telephone from a mountain base in northern Iraq on Monday.

"An attack (into northern Iraq) would unite all the Kurds in the Middle East and elsewhere."

Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria all have sizeable Kurdish minorities.

"Turkey has failed in the past to crush the PKK. We have made an offer of a ceasefire and we stand by that. But the Turkish government is not interested in peace," Chaderchi said.

Turkey's armed forces have urged its government to allow an incursion to crush up to 4,000 PKK militants who use the region as a base to attack security and civilian targets inside Turkey.

The PKK, outlawed in Turkey and considered a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union, has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984 in a struggle for autonomy that has killed more than 30,000 people.

Clashes have continued despite a PKK unilateral ceasefire first declared in September 2006 and renewed several times since. Last week, a Turkish human rights organisation said 225 people had been killed in fighting between the PKK and Turkish security forces in the first half of this year alone.

Two more Turkish soldiers died in a clash with Kurdish separatist rebels during a military offensive in southeast Turkey, a regional governor's office said on Tuesday.

Chaderchi described Turkey's military build-up along the border with Iraq as unprecedented in the number of men and heavy weapons, including tanks, artillery and aircraft.

Last week, security sources in the Turkish city of Diyarbakir, just across the border, told Reuters the Turkish army had boosted troop levels in the area to more than 200,000. Iraq's government, which has urged dialogue to resolve the growing tension, has put the number at 140,000.

The Turkish troop movements come against the backdrop of a bitterly contested campaign for parliamentary elections on Sunday which has triggered an upsurge in nationalism and could strengthen those who demand stronger action against the PKK.

Turkey has launched several major anti-guerrilla operations into Iraq since the conflict with the PKK began.

2. - The Washington Times - "Kurds wield hand in vote":

KORTEK / 17 July 2007 / by Nicholas Birch

A leader of about 2,000 Kurdish rebels with a presence in Iraq that threatens to spark a Turkish invasion says his group seeks greater democratic representation in Turkey and not an independent state.

With Turkish parliamentary elections scheduled for Sunday, "Turkey is faced with a choice between democracy and authoritarianism," said Cemil Bayik, one of the two most powerful figures in the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

"This debate about secularism and the Kurds is political maneuvering — just a means for the powers that be to hold on to their influence," Mr. Bayik said.

Based in towering mountains on Iraq's border with Iran, he said, his fighters are only exercising their "right of self-defense."

Since the start of the year, 167 Turkish soldiers have died fighting the PKK. The wave of violence at one stage threatened to prevent elections this month.

Talk of delays has subsided, but campaign speeches focus on the threat of Kurdish "terrorism," not the economy or reforms for the European Union.

The 140,000 Turkish soldiers massed on Iraq's border since late April are giving rise to rumors that Ankara might permit military operations before the elections.

"A Turkish invasion of Iraq would lead to the division of Turkey," Mr. Bayik said. "They won't just have us in opposition; they'll have the world."

Nabi Sensoy, the Turkish ambassador in Washington, told the Associated Press this month that U.S. weapons have been turning up in the hands of Kurdish guerrillas staging attacks in Turkey. He did not suggest that the United States has been supplying the weapons directly, but he said Washington is not doing enough to influence Kurdish politicians in the Iraqi government to crack down on the PKK.

Turkey, a member of NATO, remains a key ally of the United States.

The PKK says it has been fighting since 1995 for democratic rights in a nation that has long oppressed the Kurdish minority in its southeast.

In April, a court ruled that four policemen who shot a 12-year-old Kurdish boy nine times in the back at close range had acted in self-defense and acquitted them.

In May, a mayor and his assistants in a majority Kurdish city were fired for offering multilingual municipal services. Before 1991, speaking Kurdish in public was a crime that could land the speaker in jail.

Now, said Orhan Miroglu, a senior member of a pro-Kurdish party that many Turks see as a front for the PKK, "nobody questions our right to have political representation."

Mr. Bayik, the PKK leader, acknowledges that the situation has improved, but points to the refusal of the Turkish military and civilian leaders to take the PKK's cease-fires seriously as evidence that the EU-backed democratization process in Ankara is a sham.

"We're not fighting because we are in love with war. We're fighting because we have been given no alternative," he said. "It's the army that feeds on war."

3. - Stratfor - "Turkey: Kurds, Iran and Prodding the United States":

17 July 2007

Summary

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 17 defended a preliminary natural gas deal with Iran to carry natural gas to Europe following strong criticism of the agreement from the White House. With U.S.-Turkish relations taking a serious hit from the Iraq war and its aftermath, Turkey is clearly sending a political message to the United States that it still has a number of ways to pressure Washington into cracking down on Kurdistan Workers' Party rebels in northern Iraq.

Analysis

Iran and Turkey have signed a preliminary agreement to pump Iranian natural gas to Europe via Turkey, a senior Turkish energy official who requested anonymity said July 16. A U.S. State Department spokesman criticized the agreement the same day, saying now is not the right time to invest in Iran's energy sector, and that Iran has not necessarily proved itself to be the most reliable partner in this regard. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded by defending the agreement, saying Iran had made an attractive offer. He added, "Should we not think of our country's interests at this point? Is the United States going to ask why we did not seek their permission? I believe [the United States] will understand."

Turkey signed a deal with Tehran in 2001 to ship 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Iranian natural gas from Tabriz to Europe via Turkey. Washington greatly disapproved of the deal at the time, not liking the idea of a NATO ally defying its sanction strategy against the Islamic republic. Iran and Turkey now apparently have decided to take their energy cooperation a step further by signing an agreement to pump 30 bcm of natural gas per year to Europe via Turkey, leaving no need for alternative supplies to feed the Nabucco pipeline project.

The European Union designed Nabucco to reduce its dependence on Russia for natural gas. Though clearly Europe will fund Nabucco, and Turkey makes the most sense as the primary transit point into Europe, there is still the question of which country actually will fill the pipeline with natural gas. In no particular order, the prospective suppliers for Nabucco are Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Complications attend each of these suppliers.

Turkmenistan, for example, would have to violate existing energy agreements with Russia to become a dedicated supplier for this project. Iraq remains an incoherent mess. Egypt and Saudi Arabia would require infrastructure largely built from scratch to do the job. Finally, Iran has a wall of political sanctions that would have to be broken down through a U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. In spite of this, Iran is probably best positioned to supply Nabucco. The 2001 Iranian-Turkish deal already allows about 10 bcm to be shipped into Turkey, and unlike Saudi Arabia or Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey share a border. Moreover, Iran also has larger natural gas reserves than all the other prospective suppliers combined.

Turkey previously has talked about getting Russia to supply natural gas for the pipeline, which defeats the Europeans' original purpose of building it. By now saying Iran will be a major partner in Nabucco, Turkey appears to be sending a clear political message to Washington that Ankara is unhappy with the U.S. handling of Iraq and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a Kurdish rebel group that focuses its attacks on Turkey -- using bases in northern Iraq as its refuge and a staging ground for operations.

Turkey harbors deep reservoirs of resentment toward the United States. Turks at practically every level of society argue that the United States has done nothing to contain the PKK, while Washington hypocritically expects full compliance from Ankara to help calm the situation in Iraq. Ankara also fears that any political settlement the United States attempts to push through in Baghdad will allow Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to make considerable progress toward greater political and economic autonomy -- something that could encourage Kurdish separatism inside Turkey. As a result, Turkey has spent the past few months engaged in heavy military posturing to convince the KRG and Washington that Ankara will not hesitate to send troops into northern Iraq to take care of the PKK, even if this ends up derailing Washington's political negotiations over Iraq.

Meanwhile, the Iranians are eager to take advantage of this deterioration in U.S.-Turkish relations by forming a strategic partnership with Ankara. Turkey also steadily has improved relations with Syria and has sought to assume the role of mediator between Israel and Syria, despite Washington's wish to keep Damascus isolated.

Iran, Turkey and Syria all find common cause in ensuring that Iraqi Kurdistan is boxed in by its neighbors. Iran also sees itself and Turkey as the rightful powerhouses of the Middle East -- as non-Arabs and as successors to the Ottoman and Safavid empires, respectively. Of course, plenty of divisive issues hamper such a partnership, including Turkey's secularist and Iran's Islamist ideology, as well as their opposing stances toward the West. But with the U.S.-Turkish relationship taking a beating, Iran sees a gap that it very much wants to fill. In fact, the Iranians already have begun to prove their worth to the Turks by launching cross-border operations against PKK rebels in northeastern Iraq.

This explains why Erdogan rather cheekily ridiculed Washington's expectation that Ankara ask for the U.S. position before signing this deal with Iran. Erdogan's comments also come just five days before the July 22 Turkish parliamentary polls. The ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party wants to extract maximum electoral mileage by tapping the growing anti-U.S. sentiment within the Turkish public. Though Erdogan is relatively confident that the AK Party will hold onto its parliamentary majority, he also knows his party will lose some seats, and he is trying to minimize this loss as much as possible.

This obvious political jab by the Turks intended to apply greater pressure on Washington to give into Turkish demands and crack down on PKK rebels in northern Iraq is sure to grab Washington's attention. The only way to break Turkey out of this growing strategic partnership with Iran and Syria will be through action against the PKK. In the interest of gluing Iraq back together, Washington does not appear prepared to take such action just yet -- meaning U.S.-Turkish relations are bound to suffer further as a result.

4. - AFP - "Turkish PM will 'quit politics' if he cannot rule alone":

ANKARA / 17 July 2007

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday that he would quit politics if his Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to get enough votes to run the country on its own in Sunday's election.

"I will withdraw from politics if we cannot come to power alone," the Anatolia news agency quoted Erdogan as telling a party campaign rally in the southwestern city of Isparta.

Opinion polls say the AKP is the most popular party in Turkey, leading its rivals by a wide margin.

Some polls have said the party could garner 40 percent or more of the votes in the July 22 elections, but under the country's proportional election sytem, it may still fail to get the necessary majority to govern on its own.

The Islamist-rooted AKP stormed to power with a nearly two-thirds parliamentary majority in 2002, ending more than a decade of weak coalition governments wrecked by squabbling between the governing partners.

Since then, Turkey has staged an impressive economic recovery, achieved its four-decade dream of starting EU membership talks and enacted several democracy reforms to ease its entry into the 27-nation club.

Erdogan, 53, challenged his rivals, main opposition leader Deniz Baykal and ultra-nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, to follow his example and pledge to stand down if their parties failed to win power on their own.

"Come on then, you withdraw as well so as to clear the way for those coming after you. I dare you!" Erdogan said.

Opinion polls say Baykal's Republican People's Party (CHP) will come in second place.

Bahceli's Nationalist Action Party (MHP), which has been out of parliament since 2002, is expected to overcome the 10-percent national threshold for parliamentary representation.

Both the CHP and the MHP immediately dismissed Erdogan's call.

"This is a statement that is only binding to him," CHP deputy chairman Mustafa Ozyurek told the NTV news channel. "It is wrong to demote politics to betting."

Baykal briefly left the CHP helm after the party failed to enter parliament for the first time in its history in the 1999 elections, but he found his way back to the top in 2000 after out-manoeuvring his opponents.

In an interview with the popular Vatan daily last week, the CHP leader said that he would swim to the Greek island of Rhodes, some 2O kilometres (12 miles) off Turkey's southwestern coast, if he loses the elections.

MHP deputy chairman Mehmet Sandir shrugged off Erdogan's call as nonsense.

"This is not something that a person in his right mind would say. It shows that some people are in politics only for the seat," he said.

The July 22 elections were called after political turmoil blocked the election of the next president in a parliamentary vote.

Erdogan was forced to bring the elections forward from November after the AKP twice failed to get its presidential candidate elected because of an opposition boycott of the vote.

The presidential election was called off after the Constitutional Court said voting could not be held without a two-third majority quorum, which the AKP could not muster.

The crisis came to a head with a stiff warning from the military that it was ready to defend the secular system amid mass rallies against the prospect of an AKP president.

The AKP, the moderate offshoot of a now-banned Islamist movement, has disowned its radical roots, but many believe it still has ambitions to increase Islam's role in politics and daily life in Turkey.

5. - The Age - "Turkey in turmoil as snap poll nears":

ANKARA / 18 July 2007 / by Burak Akinci

TURKEY heads to the polls on Sunday for a snap election called to end a dangerous political crisis, but many analysts believe that whatever the outcome the root causes are likely to remain.

Polarisations that sparked the snap election, between the Islamist-rooted governing party and the secular opposition, is likely to continue, analysts say.

The vote was brought forward by four months when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to get its presidential candidate elected in a parliamentary vote boycotted by the secular opposition.

The election has provoked tension between the Government and secularists, who took to the streets in their millions, as well as the army, which threatened to take action if the Government failed to ensure the separation of religion and state.

Mr Erdogan's AKP, which denies any Islamist agenda, has presided over strong economic growth, falling inflation and the historic launch of European Union accession talks since sweeping to power in November 2002. But the secularist establishment, including powerful army generals, remains distrustful of the party's intentions.

Opinion polls agree that the AKP will remain the country's top party, followed by the social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP).

But surveys say other parties may now join the fray and the AKP may not be able to form a government on its own.

Pro-Kurdish politicians are also poised to enter Turkey's parliament for the first time in more than a decade, bringing hope to many Kurds that their rights will be addressed.

Turkey's poor, restive south-east has not been represented in parliament by pro-Kurdish parties since the early 1990s, when several MPs were kicked out of the chamber and later jailed for speaking the Kurdish language while taking their oath of office.

Kurds hope these elections will be a turning point for the poorest region in Turkey, a country otherwise experiencing an economic boom, and ultimately end armed conflict between Kurdish rebels and the army.

Whatever the outcome, once a government is formed, parliament will have to try again to elect a president with the possibility of yet another general election late this year, according to some predictions.

6. - Bianet - "The Dream of a Civil Constitution":

When one looks at pre-election promises, mainstream political parties are suddenly keen to promise a new, more democratic constitution. The track record of the current government and other parties suggests that many of these promises will not be kept.

ISTANBUL / 17 July 2007 / by Tolga Korkut

One of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) election promises is "a new constitution". In the ambiguous text, there is only one paragraph which offers promise:

"A new constitution must fully apply the unchanging Republican values of a democratic, laicist and social state ruled by law, must protect the rights of individuals in the most effective way, must protect the principles and standards of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights".

Prof. Dr. Zafer Üskül, a constitution expert who has transferred to the AKP, expressed the need for a new constitution in an interview in the "Radikal" newspaper:

"The current constitution cannot be ameliorated. The soul of that constitution [which was written by the military junta after the 1980 coup] cannot be destroyed. The soul of the coup is everywhere."

"The [new] constitution will be a "reconciliation constitution" with all political parties, and NGOs participating in the discussion."

This sounds nice, but is it practicable?

Pre-election party promises

Both the AKP and the Republican People's Party (CHP) are promising the strengthening of basic rights and freedoms in their pre-election memoranda.
The AKP says, "Applying a universal understanding of law and freedom, reformulated rights to life and property, and freedoms of thought, expression, belief, enterprise and organisation will be fully applied."

The CHP emphasizes that the right to life and freedom of expression are the basis of democracy and promises to protect the rights of the press and the freedom of communication to the last. The party says that it aims to develop basic rights such as "the rights of children, the right to work, trade union rights, the right to education, the right to shelter and accommodation, the right to an environment and urban rights" and overcome problems in their application.

Even the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) speaks of the necessity of a new constitution and the protection of human rights. Ironically, its leader Devlet Bahceli feels no qualms about calling for a return of the death penalty at the same time.

The Democratic Party (DP, formerly the True Path Party) says that a general assembly throughout the country should prepare a civil constitution which respects human rights.

In theory, and in practice...

To be frank, all parties have caught on to the wisdom of speaking of human rights, but when it comes to practice, it is very different. A few points will suffice to show how little human rights are respected:

* The disgraceful Article 301 was ratified by the AKP. AKP's Minister of Justice Cemil Cicek has defended the article. When the AKP finally approached the CHP in order to change the article, CHP leader Deniz Baykal refused to cooperate. The worst is that although the EU is aware of Article 301, there are 14 other articles of the Penal Code which urgently need changing.

Legal amendments ratified in parliament under the leadership of the AKP have restricted the rights of defendants; the new Law on Terror openly invites torture and impunity, another amendment means that the police force has unprecedented authority.

* In order to decrease the chances of independent candidates to enter parliament, there was rarely-seen cooperation between the AKP and the CHP when they changed the format of the ballot paper. In addition, both AKP leader Erdogan and CHP leader Baykal called on people not to vote for independent candidates.

* When it comes to the right to organise, there has been no evidence of change in trade union law, or the laws on meeting and marching. On the contrary, the European Social Charter was only ratified with annotations.

* As far as the environment is concerned, this government's time in office has been characterised by an insistence on ignoring laws to protect the environment.

What kind of constitution can be designed by political parties who are competing in the accumulation of capital and in supporting the General Staff and American war policies?

Practical suggestions

While the political parties are making vague promises, which, looking at their track record, are not likely to be fulfilled after the elections, NGOs have long campaigned for concrete change in the constitution.

The Human Rights Association's General Committee, for instance, met in November 2006 and the then president Yusuf Alatas listed what was needed for a constitution based on social agreement, plurality, participation and human rights:

* The constitution must not allow for the violation of basic human rights in any case

* The duties and the limits of authority of the military must be made clear and be controlled by civil powers. Administration must be controlled by the judiciary. There must be an end to the division of the judiciary into civil and military.

* Parliament must represent the pluralist nature of society and this must be guaranteed by the constitution.

* Regional and local government must be strengthened and the constitution developed accordingly.

* Citizenship must be defined without applying ethnic terms

* Education in one's mother tongue must be accepted as a basic right. It must be possible for people to present and use public services in the language of the region.

* The constitution must be the basis on which independent human rights commissions, based on the Paris Principles, are formed.

* Equality of women, men and people with different sexual orientations must be safeguarded and the scope well-defined.

* Conscientious objection must be a basic right guaranteed by the constitution.

The Human Rights Association has called on parties to include the following in a new constitution:

Environmental rights, the right of benefiting from shared property, the right to development, the right to peace, the right to solidarity.

The right to peace in the constitution! Will they manage it?

7. - AFP - "Two soldiers, Kurdish rebel killed in fighting in southeastern Turkey":

DIYARBAKIR / 17 July 2007

Two Turkish soldiers and a Kurdish rebel were killed in a clash in the country's restive southeast, the army said Tuesday.

Fighting erupted Monday between soldiers on patrol and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels in the mountainous Bestler region of Sirnak province on the border with Iraq and Syria.

The local governor's office initially said two soldiers lost their lives in the clash.

The general staff added on a statement posted on its Internet site that a PKK rebel was also shot dead.

PKK rebels who use bases in neighbouring northern Iraq to stage attacks on Turkish territory are known to be active in Bestler.

The PKK notably stepped up violence this year.

The army has launched a large-scale operation against the group in eastern and southeastern Turkey and massed troops on the border with Iraq, fuelling talk of a cross-border operation to strike at rebels camps there.

According to a tally compiled by human rights activists from official and independent sources, 111 members of the security forces, 109 PKK rebels and five civilians were killed in the first six months of the year in eascalating violence in the region.

The PKK took up arms for self-rule in Turkey's mainly Kurdish east and southeast in 1984. The conflict has claimed more than 37,000 lives.

8. - Reuters - "Turkey must step up reforms after election":

BERLIN / 17 July 2007

Turkey needs to accelerate its reforms after Sunday's general election to kick-start its stalled effort to join the European Union, the EU's enlargement chief said in a newspaper interview on Tuesday.

Turkey began EU membership talks in 2005 but the bloc has frozen talks in eight of 35 policy areas over Ankara's Cyprus policy. Nicolas Sarkozy's election as French president has also strained ties because he is opposed to Turkey joining the EU.

"Last year the reform process slowed down," EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn told Germany's Die Welt daily. "After the parliamentary elections we expect Turkey to step up its reform push again and to make progress in the direction of the EU."
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"Progress is needed with regard to freedom of belief and religion. Only then can the membership negotiations get a new thrust," he said, comparing the current situation to half time at a sports game.

"Both teams are rather tired, we need new blood and must revive the spirit on both sides. After the parliamentary elections we will go into the second half," Rehn said.

The EU suspended accession talks in the eight policy areas because Turkey refused to open its ports and airports to traffic from EU-member Cyprus, a country Ankara does not recognise.

"Negotiations on the (eight) individual chapters cannot be concluded until Turkey opens its ports," Rehn said.

Turkey's ruling centre-right AK Party, which denies any Islamist agenda, is widely expected to win the July 22 election but possibly with a reduced majority.

The AK Party has presided over strong economic growth, falling inflation and the historic launch of the EU accession talks since sweeping to power in November 2002.