27 November 2006

1. "Turkish soldier, Kurdish rebel killed in fighting", a Turkish soldier and a Kurdish rebel were killed Friday in the southeast of the country in a security operation despite a ceasefire the militants called last month, officials said.

2. "Iranian forces clash with Kurd rebels on Iraq border", Iranian forces attacked a Kurdish rebel post at the Iraqi border and clashed with guerrillas early Saturday, before pulling back, Kurdish officials and rebels reported.

3. "BIA² Media Report: Army Shadow on Press", 59 years imprisonment demanded for 7 reporters covering conscientious objection and the Kurdish issue during the last three months. Number of 301 victims has reached 65. 5 people are on trailed under charges of violating the Law to Protect Ataturk.

4. "Daily Gundem Suspended by Court Order", a 16 November Istanbul High Criminal Court order to suspend the print of pro-Kurdish Ulkede Ozgur Gundem (Free Agenda in the Country) newspaper for 15 days is "a blow to democratization" in Turkey which shows the country's agenda is still determined by military authority, according to the daily's news editor Nurettin Firat.

5. "A tense time for a papal visit", Turkey, which doesn't recognize the Roman Catholic Church, is still rankled by Benedict's comments on Islam.

6. "Finding Peace in the North", in Iraq’s Kurdish region, violence is rare but disputes remain.


1. - AFP - "Turkish soldier, Kurdish rebel killed in fighting":

DIYARBAKIR / 24 November 2006

A Turkish soldier and a Kurdish rebel were killed Friday in the southeast of the country in a security operation despite a ceasefire the militants called last month, officials said.

The fighting took place in mountains in Sirnak province, which borders Iraq and Syria, where the army launched an operation against the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) earlier in the week.

The Sirnak governor's office had announced the death of a PKK militant on Wednesday and two others on Thursday.

The PKK, which has been battling the Turkish army since 1984, ordered a unilateral ceasefire from October 1, saying it hoped this would pave the way for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

But the truce, like previous ones called by the rebels, was rejected by Turkey.

Fighting has nonetheless decreased markedly since then.

More than 37,000 people have died since the PKK took up arms for self-rule in the mainly Kurdish southeast of the country.


2. - AFP - "Iranian forces clash with Kurd rebels on Iraq border":

SULAIMANIYAH / 25 November 2006

Iranian forces attacked a Kurdish rebel post at the Iraqi border and clashed with guerrillas early Saturday, before pulling back, Kurdish officials and rebels reported.

Mustafa Sayyed Qader, deputy commander of the Kurdish militia of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told AFP that Iranian forces attacked a customs post of the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), without crossing the border.

The PKK, however, maintained that Iranian forces actually entered Iraq in the course of its attack.

"A number of Iranian forces crossed into Iraqi territory Saturday morning in the Nowzang border area," said Jingawr, a PKK leader who goes by a single name.

The PKK, waging a guerrilla war against Turkey, is based in northern Iraq's Mount Qandil area, together with the anti-Iranian Party of Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK).

"A force of PJAK attacked them and the clashes continued for an hour until Iranian forces withdrew to their posts inside their own territory," said Jingawr.

Iran, which has its own Kurdish minority, has been battling infiltrations by the PJAK for more than a year.

Iran is bound by treaty with Turkey to fight the PKK.

In return, Turkey is under a pledge to fight the Iranian armed opposition group, the Iraq-based People's Mujahedeen.

That group was effectively neutralised when it surrendered its arms to US forces following the 2003 invasion to unseat Saddam Hussein.

PJAK, which has close ties with the PKK, was formed in the late 1990s and describes itself as struggling for the Kurdish identity in Iran as well as for democracy.

Jingawr said there were no PJAK casualties, nor was he aware of any Iranian casualties.


3. - Bianet - "BIA² Media Report: Army Shadow on Press":

59 years imprisonment demanded for 7 reporters covering conscientious objection and the Kurdish issue during the last three months. Number of 301 victims has reached 65. 5 people are on trailed under charges of violating the Law to Protect Ataturk.

ISTANBUL / 20 November 2006 / by Erol Onderoglu

The 2006 3rd Quarterly Media Monitoring Report prepared by the BIA² Media Monitoring Desk and covering the months of July, August and September has been released.

The 14-page report discloses factual details on the situation of the media in relation to rights and freedoms showing the growing burden on the Turkish press under the new Anti-Terror Law which has expanded the scope of offenses. The media also suffers from the debate around a possible peaceful solution to Turkey's Kurdish problem.

The "normalization" and "democratization" processes under the European Union reforms are subject to about-turn with military strategies and practices being enforced.

Interviewing representatives of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), allowing a voice to opposition Kurdish politicians, defending the right of being against war and conscientious objection are all regarded as offenses punishable with prison terms. The situation in its most recent form has turned journalism into a more dangerous occupation.

The 3rd Quarterly Media Monitoring Report attracts attention not only to the destructive effects on the media of the conflict environment but also to the plight of 65 people who, in the past year alone, have been put on trial under controversial penal code article 301 just for expressing their opinions. 25 of these 301 cases were launched in the past three months.

Back to the DGM days!

With the recent amendment to Turkey's Anti-Terror Law (TMY), the punishment of journalists covering conscientious objection and/or the non-violent aspects of armed organizations has been increased.

The cases are being heard not at courts of first instance but at "Specialized High Criminal Courts" that have replaced the State Security Courts (DGM) that were abolished in 2004 under the EU reforms.

Sebati Karakurt, Hasan Kilic and Necdet Tatlican of the mass circulation "Hurriyet" newspaper, "Milliyet" newspaper reporter Namik Durukan, "Birgun" newspaper employees Gokhan Gencay and Ibrahim Cesmecioglu and "Ulkede Ozgur Gundem" newspaper reporter Birgul Ozbaris are those now facing the resurrected "DGM days". A total of 59 years imprisonment is being demanded for them.

No change in a year

The BIA² Media Monitoring Desk which had previously disclosed that as of July 1, 2006, a total of 40 people faced charges under article 301, now states that the figure has increased to 65 defendants as of October 1. An increase of 25 new suspects charged under this controversial article in 3 months alone.

According to the Desk, there is no change in the situation compared to the same period of last year and pressures on the freedom of expression still continue.

163 people appear at courts, 77 of them journalists

The report focused on the situation of 163 people of which 77 are journalists and 84 are publishers. The remaining include mayors, writers, unionists and activists under trial as well as two people who have applied to the European Court of Human Rights.

The desk's previous report contained information on 56 cases launched against 67 individuals and the increase in the number of cases is attributed to the "aiding and abetting the PKK" charges brought forth against 56 mayors. There is also an increase in the number of trials.

The 3rd Quarterly Media Monitoring Report covers current issues under the titles "attacks and threat", "detentions and arrests", "trials and attempts", "European Court of Human Rights", "RTUK practices", "regulations and seeking rights" and "reaction to censorship".

According to the report, there are attempts to exert pressure on the Turkish media through high compensation demands coming from various circles including the Koza Gold Company, OYAK, MOPAK Paper Company, politicians and local authorities.

A total of 6 million 396 thousand YTL in damages is being demanded in cases filed against 30 journalists while 4 journalists have been put on trial charged with "insult" and threatened with prison terms, one of whom has already been sentenced.

Fate of arrested unknown under TMY secrecy

* In three months a total of 12 attacks took place against journalists and media institutions out of which 3 were against the www.ihdist.org , www.solgazete.net and www.bianet.org Internet sites and 3 others targeted local journalists.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's unfounded allegations against the media were also referred to as attacks in the recent report. The number of attacks in this year's 3rd Quarterly Media Monitoring Report reflect a drop compared to the same period of last year where there were 23 attacks but an increase compared to the previous three months in 2006 where only 10 attacks were listed.

* While no detention incident was reported, there have been a number of arrests. "Ozgur Radyo" Broadcast Director Fusun Erdogan and "Atilim" newspaper Editor in Chief Ibrahim Cicek were among 6 journalists who were placed under arrest on charges of "having relationships with the Marxist Leninist Communist Party (MLKP) organization.

But because the Anti-Terror Law has imposed a six month secrecy on the case file, details of the allegations are not known.

* While "Isci Koylu" (Workers Peasants) magazine Editor in Chief Memik Horuz who was arrested in 2001 was the "only journalist held in prison in the capacity of press freedoms", the arrest and imprisonment of Dicle News Agency (DIHA) reporters Evrim Dengiz, Nesrin Yazar and Rustu Demirkaya has increased this figure to 4 in the past six months.

Increase in "Organization Cases"

* There is an increase in the number of cases opened against journalists and other political and civil society representatives who focus on the Kurdish issue. The increase is reflective in trials based on "aiding and abetting the PKK" charges.

"Ulkede Ozgur Gundem" newspaper Editor in Chief Huseyin Aykol is subject to a trial where a prosecutor demands 10 years imprisonment for him on allegations of "organizational membership" based on his interviews with PKK leaders on Kandil mountains. 56 mayors, on the other hand, are on trial for sending a letter to Danish Prime Minister Rassmusen urging him not to close down the Kurdish "Roj TV" under Turkish pressure.

301 targets associations

* In the past three months not only journalists but association members have also been charged under article 301. 25 new cases under this article include charges against Mersin 78's Foundation member Ethem Dincer and Ozgur Der official Burhan Kurbanoglu.

* Article 216 of the Penal Code which covers the offense of "incitement to hatred and enmity" was used in court cases launched against 6 people in the same period.

Again, in the same three months, Ankara Public Prosecutor Huseyin Boyrazoglu filed an appeal to overturned the previous acquittal decision for Professor Dr. Ibrahim Kaboglu, the former head of the Human Rights Advisory Board of the Prime Ministry and board member Prof. Dr. Baskin Oran on grounds that their views in the "minority report" subject to trial were not in the scope of freedom of expression.

"Ataturk" cases against five

* Prosecutions launched under the "Insulting the memory of Ataturk" law are targeting not only publishers and journalists but also translators.

Journalist-writer Ipek Calislar is on trial for interviews related to her bestseller book "Latife Hanim" together with "Hurriyet" newspaper editor Necdet Tatlican.

Publisher Fatih Tas, translators Lutfi Taylan Tosun and Aysel Yildirim are on trial and face 4.5 years imprisonment each for the Turkish language version of John Tirman's "Spoils of War: The Human Cost of America's Arms Trade".

12 "Intervention in Justice" cases

* Allegations made against journalists and activists under Penal Code articles 277 and 288 as well as Press Law article 19 charging them with "intervention in justice" have increased in the past three months.

12 journalists are still on trial under this allegation including Milliyet's Lube Ayar, Yeni Asya's Faruk Cakir, Agos's Hrant Dink and Aydin Engin.

Censorship and bans

* "Legal censorship" against newspapers and magazines continued between July and October 2006. "Ulkede Ozgur Gundem" newspaper was banned from print for 15 days on grounds of "continuously giving room to PKK statements".

A court ordered the seizure of Kaos GL magazine's summer issue on the theme of pornography ruling that it was against "general public moral" and Kaos GL is now taking the verdict to the ECHR.

* Ozgur Der member Bahadir Kurbanoglu, Mersin 78's Association Chairman Ethem Dincer, "Agos" newspaper Editor in Chief Hrant Dink and Sarkis Seropyan, editor Arat Dink were subject to new charges alongside the "Birgun" newspaper for a report on Saudi businessman Yasin El Kadi and "Leman" magazine as well as its cartoonist Mehmet Cagdag.

The number of court cases which was three last year in the same period was recorded as 7 in 2006.

* Long-term pressure related to published cartoons also reached its conclusion with the "Penguen" magazine fined 5,000 YTL in damages in a suit filed against it by Culture and Tourism Minister Atilla Koc.

And now the good news...

* The Beyoglu 2nd Criminal Court of First Instance acquitted "Father and Bastard" novel author Elif Safak who was put on trial for "publicly denigrating Turkishness" under article 301.

* The Bagcilar 2nd Criminal Court of First Instance dismissed charges against "Radikal" newspaper journalist Murat Yetkin for his article titled "Turkey will be on trial in the case launched against Orhan Pamuk" basing its verdict on statue of limitations.

The same court took the same decision for journalist Nese Duzel who was on trial for "propaganda" due to an interview she conducted with Democratic Society Party (DTP) founding member Orhan Dogan.

* Due to it being the summer months, the number of cases dealt with at the European Court of Human Rights was lower than usual and Turkey was sentenced to pay 7,000 YTL in damages in two cases brought before the court based on verdicts passed under penal code article 312.


4. - Bianet - "Daily Gundem Suspended by Court Order":

"Ulkede Ozgur Gundem" newspaper editor Nurettin Firat says last week's court decision to suspend the daily from print for 15 days shows there is no democracy in Turkey: "The Military authority is determining the country's agenda".

ISTANBUL / 20 November 2006 / by Erol Onderoglu

A 16 November Istanbul High Criminal Court order to suspend the print of pro-Kurdish Ulkede Ozgur Gundem (Free Agenda in the Country) newspaper for 15 days is "a blow to democratization" in Turkey which shows the country's agenda is still determined by military authority, according to the daily's news editor Nurettin Firat.

The order to close down Gundem came in the wake of Chief of General Staff Commander Gen. Yasar Buyukanit's recent public remarks that "such publications should not be allowed" and is the second suspension order slapped on the newspaper since August.

The August 4 decision of a 15 day suspension from print was appealed against and the daily went back into print and circulation before its due date.

Firat: "Buyukanit showed target, prosecutor acted"

Ulkede Ozgur Gundem's news editor Nurettin Firat said on the closure decision that "Buyukanit showed a target, the prosecutors acted" and referred to his statement at a November 10 cocktail where the country's top general was quoted as saying "Magazines and daily newspapers of the [outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party] PKK are being published. These should not be allowed".

Acting after the statement, the Istanbul Public Prosecutor's Office examined the October 26, 27, 30 and 31 issues of the daily together with its November 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14 and 15, 2006 issues.

It concluded that in 13 issues the newspapers had conducted propaganda for the PKK-Kongra Gel organization "praising the offenses of the terrorist organization and praising the offenders".

It's application to the Istanbul 10th High Criminal Court to suspend the newspaper from print for 15 days was accepted in the November 16 verdict of the court.

Agar's remarks dangerous too

According to the Istanbul court, the newspaper had committed the offence of publicly inciting the commitment of an offense, praising offenses and conducting propaganda for a terror organization.

One of the issues the court cited as example included statements made by opposition True Path Party leader Mehmet Agar made to the "Haber Turk" television.

"Great blow to democratization"

Firat recalled that this was the second time the newspaper was being closed down since August 2006 and said "the decision taken on our newspaper is a great blow to the democratization process in Turkey".

"Gen. Yasar Buyukanit sees the right in himself to intervene in everything in Turkey in the recent times. Last he had shown our newspaper as a target and said it should not be allowed to publish. How else can this verdict be seen?"

According to Firat, the suspension decision is a open sign that "there is no law or democracy" in Turkey and that the military authority is above everything in the country.

"The military authority determines Turkey's agenda" he said. "We, on the other hand, base ourselves on a publishing policy of civilianization that will develop democratization. In this framework we stress that principle problems, with the Kurdish problem at top of the list, can be solved. But as in every other issue, they will not allow this in a country where military methods and authority are ruling".

600 cases against the newspaper

From its date of first print on March 1, 2004 until November 16, 2006, more than 600 cases have been filed against the newspaper and its workers out of which 128 have been concluded. The newspaper was acquitted in 11 cases. Many of its editors have been sentenced to compensation while its editor in chief Hasan Bayar was also sentenced to 70 months imprisonment.

Paper targeted in public statements

19 July 2005: Chief of General Staff Deputy Commander Ilker Basbug delivered a 3 hour long briefing to journalists influential in the Turkish media where he accused Ozgur Gundem of being on the side of the separatist organization and said "necessary measures should be taken to prevent its distribution".

11 June 2006: Minister of Justice Cemil Cicek delivered a speech at the general assembly of the Journalists Association and openly showed Ulkede Ozgur Gundem as a target, referring to it as "rubbish" and adding "this newspaper has to be stopped".

10 November 2006: Chief of General Staff Commander Gen. Yasar Buyukanit made the quoted statement against the newspaper which, after 6 days, led to this new closure.


5. - Los Angeles Times - "A tense time for a papal visit":

Turkey, which doesn't recognize the Roman Catholic Church, is still rankled by Benedict's comments on Islam.

ISTANBUL / 25 November 2006 / by Tracy Wilkinson

To reach Turkey's most important Roman Catholic church, a visitor must scour a traffic-choked street to find the metal doors, walk down a flight of stairs, cross a courtyard and finally step into the consecrated basilica.

Inside the Holy Spirit Cathedral here, the lights remain low until a minute before evening Mass, and then reveal frescoed ceilings with gold-trimmed arches, 22 crystal chandeliers and blond-marble columns. On this night, 14 worshipers dot the pews.

In the Turkish capital, Ankara, the only Catholic church is even more discreet: It is marked simply by a French flag.

When Pope Benedict XVI travels to Turkey next week, he will be making his first trip to a predominantly Muslim country at a moment of diplomatic fragility.

He also will be traversing some of the most ancient and revered milestones of Christianity, in a land where Christianity is disappearing and where non-Muslim minorities complain of systemic discrimination, harassment and violence against them.

It is a complex agenda. The pope's main purpose is to meet with the Istanbul-based spiritual leader of the world's 250 million Eastern Orthodox Christians in a show of ecumenical solidarity. But he must also use the visit to attempt to repair the damage from comments he has made that cast Islam in a negative light.

Among Turkey's nearly 70 million Muslims, reaction to Benedict's visit ranges from disinterest to intense anger. A man opened fire early this month on the Italian Consulate in Istanbul, telling police later that he wanted to "strangle" the pope. A nationalist gang called the Gray Wolves is staging regular demonstrations protesting the pontiff's arrival.

Among the estimated 100,000 Christians who live in Turkey, there is hope that Benedict's presence will cast light on their difficulties.

The Roman Catholic Church is not legally recognized in Turkey. It functions largely attached to foreign embassies; its priests do not wear their collars in public.

Most Christians in Turkey are of the Armenian, Greek and other Orthodox denominations, and although most of these are recognized in the Turkish Constitution as minority communities, they face severe restrictions on property ownership and cannot build places of worship or run seminaries to train their clerics.

Such hardships make it almost impossible for Christians to sustain and expand their communities, advocates say. The Greek Orthodox, for example, have dwindled to no more than 3,000, just 2% of the community's size in the 1960s.

Fueled by a vitriolic, and growing, potion of nationalism and Islamic radicalism, spasms of violence have led to the killing of one priest this year, the beatings of two others and the burning of a Christian prayer center. Christian tombstones are often vandalized and property frequently confiscated by authorities.

Turkey has come under repeated criticism from Western human rights organizations and the Vatican for its failure to promote religious freedom. Turkey is an Islamic but secular country; in reality, this means that all religious activity, including mosques and imams, is controlled by the government.

"Obviously, more needs to be done to promote religious freedom for all denominations," Ali Bardakoglu, president of Turkey's powerful Religious Affairs Directorate, said in an interview. But he defended the government's treatment of minorities, contending that Christians and other non-Muslims do not face serious problems.

Bardakoglu was one of the most emphatic critics of Benedict after the pope delivered a speech in Regensburg, Germany, in September that denounced Islamic violence and quoted a medieval Byzantine emperor who disdained Islam and its prophet, Muhammad. Adding insult to injury, as far as many Turks were concerned, the emperor was defending Constantinople, cradle of Orthodox Christianity, against the Muslim conquest that gave the city its name today: Istanbul.

Bardakoglu said the pope was welcome in Turkey despite the speech, which touched off outrage throughout the Muslim world. And although he said he accepted Benedict's subsequent explanations, Bardakoglu did not appear completely appeased.

"It is unfortunate that there are circles within Western society that attempt to blacken the name of our religion and are infected with Islamophobia," he said. "The role of the Vatican and the pope should be to help fight stereotypes. Rather than open debate, they should be seeking to heal wounds."

In a remarkable gesture, the pope will meet with Bardakoglu, the country's top religious figure, at his ministry, a modern, imposing building on Ankara's outskirts, on the first day of his Turkey visit. Bardakoglu's directorate commands a huge budget and oversees all of Turkey's imams.

Originally, the Vatican expected Bardakoglu to call on the pope at the Vatican Embassy, as protocol would have dictated. But the Turks refused. After a series of negotiations, the pope agreed to go to Bardakoglu. "It is a gesture of goodwill," a senior Vatican official said.

The pope's controversial presence in Turkey represents a balancing act for the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which regards itself a vital bridge between the West and East, a way for Westerners to deal with a modern and democratic Islam. But it also cannot appear too cozy with a pontiff who, in the view of many, is not fond of Muslims or Turks.

Erdogan is not scheduled to receive Benedict, citing a previous commitment to attend a NATO summit in Latvia on Tuesday and Wednesday. And there is no plan for the prime minister to see him off when the pope departs Dec. 1.

Both the Vatican and Turkish officials said this was not a snub, but Erdogan told visiting reporters in Istanbul last month, "You can't expect me to arrange my timetable according to the pope."

The frictions are rooted in history. The Ottoman Empire, which ruled the region for more than six centuries, was relatively tolerant of Jews, Christians and other non-Muslims. But before and during World War I, Western powers collaborated with Christian and other minorities to bring down the Ottomans. In the carnage that followed, as many as 1.5 million Armenians were slaughtered, a similar number of ethnic Greeks expelled and 1 million Turks deported from Greece.

The 1923 Lausanne Treaty founded the Republic of Turkey and recognized minorities. But deep mistrust persists, and even today among ardent nationalists, Christians are seen as a potential fifth column.

"It's a kind of preemptive intolerance: Don't let it flourish because it might take over," said Mustafa Akyol, a writer and expert on interfaith relations. "Everyone is afraid of something."

Akyol, a Muslim, said he once wrote a column advocating that the museum of St. Sophia, or Aya Sofya, in Istanbul be returned to its original use, that of a church. The response was harsh: He was threatened and castigated as a "secret Greek." The pope is scheduled to visit St. Sophia, built in the 6th century as a Byzantine church and converted to a mosque in the 15th century by the Ottomans.

The mere rumor that the pope might say a prayer at the site has led to a bit of hysteria. Islamic newspaper Milli Gazete, in a front-page commentary last week, lashed out at the government for permitting the "Crusaders" to plan to bless the former church in a brazen attempt to "revive Byzantium."

For their part, Turkish officials have sought to minimize the pontiff's main mission on this trip: to worship alongside Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, head of the world's Orthodox Christians. The coming together of the two religious leaders is meant as a bridging of the 1,000-year-old rift between the two ancient branches of Christianity.

Such frictions notwithstanding, Turkey, compared with many Muslim countries, is relatively hospitable to non-Muslims. But its failure to make more progress on freedom-of-religion issues has been an important stumbling block in its years-long campaign to join the European Union.

It is EU pressure that has nudged Ankara along in easing some of the restrictions on minorities; for example, a Protestant group in Istanbul has for the first time been allowed to open a church.

"The EU reforms give people a sense of hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel," said Greek Orthodox Father Alexander Karloutsos. "It's been very dark here."


6. - Chicago Tribune - "Finding Peace in the North":

In Iraq’s Kurdish region, violence is rare but disputes remain.

IRBIL / 26 November 2006 / by Aamer Madhani

The skyline in this northern Iraqi boomtown is a mosaic of half-built concrete retail centers, sparkling new hotels and giant earthmovers and cranes working overtime. The cafe-lined streets buzz late into the night.

While in much of Iraq, coalition troops never leave their secure bases without donning bullet-proof vests and helmets, the few U.S. troops stationed in Irbil travel through the city wearing camouflage baseball caps. Instead of staring resentfully, Kurdish motorists honk their horns and smile as the Americans drive by.

The calm here is part of a separate peace forged by Kurds in the three northern provinces known as Kurdistan since the start of the Iraq war — only that peace soon might be in peril.

In coming months, Kurdish leaders will begin the process of laying their historic claim to the region’s oil-producing center, the contested city of Kirkuk, thereby opening the door to a dispute with Arab and other Iraqis that potentially could immerse the Kurdish enclave in the kind of violence gripping the rest of the country.

The dispute could be one more headache facing the Bush administration and U.S. military commanders as they explore alternatives to their Iraq strategy in response to voters’ clear demand for changes at the polls.

Kurdish leaders say the constitutional annexation and repatriation of Kirkuk is non-negotiable and necessary to rectify Saddam Hussein’s policy of forced migration of Kurds, who for years were uprooted from their homes in the Kirkuk area and replaced by Arabs.

The leaders acknowledge their move on Kirkuk could have a destabilizing effect, at least in the short term. But for the Kurds, there is no bigger prize than the dusty city that sits atop billions of barrels of oil.

“There are many questions we face, but the only real question is that of Kirkuk,” said Sadi Ahmed Pire, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan’s politburo in Irbil. “Kirkuk can be solved two ways: We can discuss it with the neighboring countries and Iraqi communities and solve the situation politically, or we can solve it militarily. We hope to solve it peacefully, but this is an issue that cannot wait. It will be resolved.”

Since the fall of the former regime, Kirkuk has been a flash point of ethnic strife, with fighting between the city’s Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens, all of whom claim to be the predominant group in the city with ancestral ties to the land.

Thousands of Kurds who say they were displaced from the area during Saddam’s regime have been living in a soccer stadium and other refugee camps around the city since soon after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and are awaiting repatriation.

The three-step plan for normalizing the situation in Kirkuk starts with bringing the predominantly Kurdish villages and towns that were administratively detached from the city under Saddam’s regime back into the fold by March 29, according to the timeline set in the Iraqi Constitution.

The constitution also calls for a new census of the area to be completed by July 15 and for the people of Kirkuk to hold a referendum on whether they should join Kurdistan by the end of 2007. The Kurds also must negotiate an understanding with neighboring Turkey, which believes any move toward Kurdish independence will stoke unrest among the millions of Kurds in Turkey. Iran and Syria also have Kurdish minorities.

Further complicating matters, Kurdish leaders say they might find themselves in a delicate position if the intractable violence pitting Shiites against Sunnis elsewhere in Iraq devolves into full-scale civil war.

“We’ve been living in what feels like two separate countries because we are so separated from the violence in the south,” said Mowloud Murat, a top political adviser with the Kurdistan Islamic Union. “If there was a civil war between the Shiites and Sunnis in the south, ... the Kurdish leaders would have no choice but to separate us from the rest of Iraq.”

The Kurdish north has operated as an autonomous region since the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, when the U.S. military established a no-fly zone over Kurdistan. Kurdish leaders point out that they had more than a decade head start on the rest of Iraq in practicing democracy, which has contributed to relative stability in Kurdistan.

For the Kurds, the U.S.-led invasion was a risky venture because it rejoined the country’s fate with Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite Arab population. The Kurds ultimately were willing partners in the invasion but demanded that federalism and the return of Kirkuk would be core points enshrined in the Iraqi Constitution.

Pire and other Kurdish leaders see Kirkuk as an indisputable red line. The city, which is home to large populations of Arabs and Turkmens, is considered by Kurds the “heartbeat” of greater Kurdistan. It is the economic nucleus that makes the region, and perhaps an eventual Kurdish state, viable.

Kurds and U.S. officials blame the forced migration of Kurds, known as Arabization, on the former regime, but the policy of Arabizing the city and surrounding area goes back to the early days of Iraq.

Kamal Kirkukli, the deputy speaker of the Kurdish Regional Government, spends most of his days in an office that his Kurdistan Democratic Party has set up in Irbil to research the cases of families who were expelled from Kirkuk. The office is filled with hundreds of boxes of documentary evidence.

Kirkukli said that it is possible many young Arab men and women, who were born in Kirkuk on land their parents illegally gained, will be forced to leave the only homes they have known. While Kirkukli said the situation for some Arabs is difficult and not their fault, it is necessary that they move.

“What is built on a wrong remains a wrong,” Kirkukli said.

Alaa Talabani, a Kurdish parliamentarian whose family was expelled from Kirkuk in 1991, said she fears that carrying out repatriation of Kirkuk too quickly could do more harm than good for the Kurdish refugees in the city.

In the short term, Kurdish leaders know they must remain tied to Iraq, while keeping focused on their long-term goal to establish an independent state, said Talabani, who returned to Kirkuk in 2003. To achieve the goal, she said, Kurds must help bring stability to the rest of Iraq and improve relationships with Turkey, Syria and Iran.

“It is too soon to deal with Kirkuk,” said Talabani, who is the niece of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. “Maybe in a year or two, we can let the people of Kirkuk decide their fate.”

In ways both small and large, the Kurds seem to be separating themselves from the rest of Iraq.

Massoud Barzani, who heads the Kurdish Regional Government, in September banned the flying of the Iraqi flag in the Kurdish region. The Iraqi national government and Kurdish Regional Government also have quarreled over who has the right to negotiate with foreign companies vying for oil exploration in Kurdistan after a Danish oil company discovered oil near the northeastern town of Zakho.

Iraq’s oil minister argued that oil is a national resource and revenues from the new Zakho find have to be shared with all of Iraq. Kurdish leaders contend the constitution calls only for the sharing of oil revenues from existing oil reserves and newly found oil is the property of the region where it is found.

While the security situation in much of Iraq has stifled foreign investment, hundreds of foreign outfits — from Turkish construction companies to a German bierhaus — have set up in Kurdistan. Although there has been economic growth, some businessmen complain Kurdistan is ultimately hampered by the security situation elsewhere in the country.

On a recent cool night in Irbil, hundreds of shoppers roamed the aisles of Ahmed Rekhani’s $20 million venture, the New City Mall, while others loitered in the parking lot to stare at a pristine white Hummer that had pulled in.

The mall, which opened three weeks ago, is more of a one-stop retail center where you can purchase food, clothes and electronics. It sits on 23,000 square yards of land and includes a Turkish restaurant with a staff imported from eastern Turkey and a motel for out-of-town shoppers.

Sitting in his second-floor office, Rekhani nervously fingered a stack of invoices and explained to a visitor that he has sunk his fortune into a project that is risky at best.

“There is no one to insure us, no banks to give us loans,” he said. “The security situation in much of the country is very dangerous. And while it is peaceful here, the dangers elsewhere in Iraq can easily affect us, and things could change quickly.”

Anis Sandi, an Egyptian general manager who Rekhani recruited to help run the project, was more blunt about the situation: “It’s like we’ve built this whole thing on sand.”