14 October 2004

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1. - Reuters - "Rights abuses on the rise in southeast Turkey-group":

DIYARBAKIR / 12 October 2004

Turkey's troubled southeast saw a sharp rise in human rights abuses last month, with more than a third of detainees complaining they had been tortured by police, a leading rights group said on Tuesday.

Turkey rejects charges from human rights observers that torture remains "systematic" in the country. It has passed a number of reforms to expand rights and convince the European Union to launch entry talks next year.

The European Commission in a report on Turkey's progress last week said the EU should begin negotiations with the populous Muslim country if its rights drive remains on track.

While the Commission praised the government for its efforts to eradicate torture, it said reports about specific cases continued to cause concern.

"We were expecting a decline in rights violations in our region in September ahead of the EU progress report," said Selahattin Demirtas, head of the Human Rights Association's (IHD) branch in the southeastern capital of Diyarbakir.

"But our expectations were not realised, and extremely serious violations against fundamental rights and freedoms were experienced," Demirtas told reporters at a news conference.

IHD said the rights of 446 people were violated in September in the southeast. Of the 155 people who were detained last month, 55 said they had been tortured.

Investigations or legal proceedings were launched against 34 people on charges violating their freedom of expression.

Demirtas accused the government of doing nothing to stem the violence in the mainly Kurdish southeast after security forces and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) renewed their fight in recent months.

Clashes have been on the rise since the PKK ended its six-year unilateral ceasefire on June 1. The PKK's violent separatist campaign in the 1980s and 1990s killed more than 30,000 people, mainly Kurds.

Fighting between soldiers and the PKK claimed 34 lives in September, IHD said. It accused the state of emptying one village and burning forests in operations against the rebels.

Separately, a Turkish soldier was killed and two were wounded on Tuesday in a landmine blast in the centre of the town of Ovacik in nearby Tunceli province, the governor said.

"Our soldiers were jogging during their regular morning exercises when they inadvertently stepped on a mine planted by PKK militants," Governor Mustafa Erkal told Reuters.

"A wide-ranging operation with air support is now underway."

Several soldiers have been killed in landmine explosions in recent months. Civilians, including children, have also been victims. Last week two children were killed after picking up a mine left in a field near the Iraqi border.

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2. - AFP - "Leyla Zana finally receives EU rights award"

BRUSSELS / 13 October 2004

Kurdish activist Leyla Zana finally received the European Parliament’s Sakharov prize for human rights Wednesday after being released in June from a decade in Turkish detention.

Zana was awarded the high-profile accolade in 1995 but had already been in a Turkish jail for a year on charges of collaborating with separatist Kurdish rebels.

The release in June of Zana and three other former Kurdish legislators, who were also in Brussels, was a surprise twist in one of the most politically charged cases in EU-hopeful Turkey.

The four were seen as prisoners of conscience by the EU, and the European Parliament in particular had made them a cause celebre.

Addressing the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Zana praised the Turkish government for pushing through "revolutionary changes" in its bid to win a date to launch EU accession negotiations.

"It’s evident that the process engaged with the EU... has contributed to the changes," she said, while adding: "The government must be a lot more resolute."

Zana said a new constitution was "indispensable" for Turkey so that minorities such as the Kurds and non-Muslims can "express themselves freely".

The Kurdish activists’ visit to Brussels comes a week after the EU’s executive commission recommended that EU nations start membership negotiations with Turkey.

The commission’s appraisal will form the basis for a decision to be taken by EU leaders at a mid-December summit. They are expected to give a green light, while attaching strict conditions.

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3. - AFP - "Majority of Germans want referendum on Turkey EU entry":

13 October 2004

A majority of Germans want a referendum on the possible entry of Turkey into the European Union, according to an opinion poll in Stern magazine published on Wednesday.

Fifty-nine percent of those questioned by the Forsa polling institute were in favour of a referendum, while 39 percent were against.

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has said he will vote in favour of Turkey starting membership talks when EU leaders gather in December. Schroeder has indicated that the German constitution would have to be changed to allow a referendum on the issue.

Such a change would require the support of a two-thirds majority of the lower and upper houses of parliament.

French President Jacques Chirac announced this month he intended to change the French constitution so that a referendum on Turkey's membership of the European bloc could be held.

Germany is home to two and a half million Turkish immigrants, yet the issue of Turkey joining the EU divides opinion.

The main opposition party in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is against Turkey becoming an EU member, preferring instead to see the predominantly Muslim nation have a 'privileged relationship' with the EU.

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4. - Bloomberg - "Turkey Needs Economic Policies, Not EU Membership":

13 October 2004

The issue of Turkish membership in the European Union has always been reminiscent of Mark Twain's quip on the climate: ``Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.''

There's been a lot of talk about Turkish accession, but little action. And maybe there are good reasons for that. In reality, what Turkey needs is sound economic policies, instead of EU membership.

Last week, Turkey won approval from the European Commission to start talks on joining the EU. ``It is a qualified yes,'' said the commission's president, Romano Prodi.

Does that mean it's time to start reviewing Turkish assets? If the country is going to join the EU, shouldn't you be piling into Turkish stocks and bonds? Shouldn't you be flicking through brochures for villas overlooking the Turkish Mediterranean? And tucking a few Turkish liras away for the day they can be swapped into solid euros?

At least some European economists think so. ``For the time being, the best assumption to use is the one we believe foreign- portfolio and direct investors will proceed upon -- namely, that Turkey is presently on track for EU membership in the next decade or so,'' said Alex Garrard, an economist at UBS AG in London, in an e-mailed response to questions.

Turkish Markets

Anyone who tracks Europe's markets will be aware that there is a well-established path to EU membership. In the years leading up to accession, countries benefit from hardening currencies, tighter public finances and more foreign investment.

Spain and Ireland have followed it with huge success. Poland, Slovenia and Hungary joined the club this year after a similar process. There appears to be little reason why Turkey shouldn't go the same way.

The Turkish financial markets are certainly following that script.

After the EU's decision, the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index reached a record high of 22,951 points. The benchmark index has gained more than a fifth in value this year, measured in local currency. The Turkish dollar bond maturing in 2030 has surged more than 20 percent since early May.

The conclusion? Investors have decided there is money to be made buying Turkish assets before eventual membership.

Poor and Populous

Well, hold on. The issue is more complicated than it looks.

The road to accession is long and difficult -- after all, Turkey signed its first agreement paving the way to membership in 1963. Taking in Turkey isn't just like absorbing another Slovenia or Latvia. It is a country with more than 70 million people. That would make it the EU's second-largest nation after Germany.

It is also poor, even compared with the countries that have just joined. Turkish gross domestic product per capita is less than $3,000, slightly more than half the level of Hungary or the Czech Republic.

The Turkish economy has little to recommend it. The Global Competitiveness Report produced by the World Economic Forum last year ranked Turkey in 65th place out of 102 countries surveyed. That's below Vietnam, Morocco, and the Dominican Republic. It's also much lower than any of the new Eastern European countries that joined the EU this year -- Slovenia, for example, ranked 31st, and the Czech Republic was 39th.

16 Billion Euros

The record on convergence plays is a lot more mixed than many people might imagine. You would have done well investing in Ireland or Spain at any time in the last 20 years, and not so well if you invested in Portugal or Greece.

There is a view that countries automatically get richer once they join the EU because of all the subsidies that come their way. In Turkey's case, forget it.

One, Turkey would get annual farming and regional assistance worth 16 billion euros ($19.7 billion) by 2025, according to the European Commission, citing figures based on current values. That's about 230 euros a person each year -- hardly enough to transform a country, yet a considerable sum for Europe's taxpayers.

Two, the idea that subsidies make much difference is a myth. There is a common view that Ireland has grown rich in the past decade on a diet of EU money, but the stunning success of that economy owes a lot more to clever policies and hard work than it does to European handouts.

If subsidies made the difference, why is eastern Germany still an economic basket case?

Policy, Not Handouts

Balanced budgets, low taxes, free labor markets, and tough competition policies are more important for economic development than EU accession. For evidence of that, look at some of Europe's wealthiest countries such as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, which aren't EU members.

That will be true for Turkey, as well. With sound economic policy, it will do well. Without it, the country won't prosper, regardless of whether it is inside or outside the EU.

So keep those convergence plays on hold. Turkey is better off taking control of its own economic destiny, without relying on its northern neighbors.

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5. - AP - "Armenian FM says Turkey far from ready for EU":

Oskanian says he hopes Turkish entry talks include discussions of Turkey's relations with Armenia, the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, and Turkish acknowledgment of what Armenians say was the genocide of up to 1.5 million Armenians between 1915 and 1923.

YEREVAN / 13 October 2004

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian has lashed out at longtime foe Turkey, saying that the nation was not ready to begin talks on entering the European Union.

Oskanian contended that compared to EU member states and nations hoping to join, Turkey lags behind on economic development, democratic principles and relations with its neighbors.

The EU's head office recommended last week that the 25-nation bloc open membership talks with Turkey.

Oskanian said he hoped the accession talks include discussions of Turkey's relations with Armenia, the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, and Turkish acknowledgment of what Armenians say was the genocide of up to 1.5 million Armenians between 1915 and 1923. Turks claim that the number of deaths is inflated, and say the victims were killed in civil unrest.

Armenia and Turkey, which do not have diplomatic relations, also are at odds over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan that has been under ethnic Armenian control since a war that ended in 1994 without a political settlement.

Turkey, which shares close ethnic ties with Azerbaijan and supported that nation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has maintained an economic blockade of Armenia, hobbling development in this landlocked former Soviet republic.

After a meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of a NATO summit in June, Oskanian had said he was convinced that the Turkish government wanted to improve prospects for resolving the countries' differences.

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6. - Cyprus mail - "Meeting of minds to path the future":

‘Turkey customs agreement is only the beginning’

13 October 2004 / by Simon Bahceli

A MEETING took place yesterday to discuss the impact of Turkey’s customs agreement with Cyprus on the Turkish Cypriot economy in the north.

Staged jointly by Turkey’s highly influential Turkish Industrialist and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD) and the Turkish Cypriot Businessmen’s Association (ISAD), the event was billed as a panel discussion aimed at evaluating the implications for the Turkish Cypriot north of Turkey’s newly-signed customs agreement with the Republic of Cyprus.

Barely two weeks ago, Turkey did the inevitable and signed an EU customs agreement with Cyprus that brought its relations with the island closer in line with those it had already established with the other 24 EU member states.

Naturally, this was not something Turkey did out of a sudden rush of affection for Cyprus but out of necessity as it eyed the prospect of a date for which to start accession negotiations with the EU.

By December 17 – the day when the EU decides on whether to give Turkey a date for the start of accession negotiations – Turkey may need to have gone further and recognised Cyprus politically, as well as economically. Presumably, it all depends on how much pressure is applied, and on how much Turkey is willing to concede on the issue.

Nevertheless, pro-EU TUSIAD quite clearly sees the customs union move as a positive one. And, generally speaking, Turkish Cypriot businessmen agree. At least, Turkish Cypriot Chamber of Commerce president Ali Erel does.

“The customs union agreement poses problems for us, but it must and will go ahead. However, it is not right that we are left out,” he told participants at the discussion.

Erel’s biggest fear is that businessmen from Turkey and Cyprus will get it together in a free market while Turkish Cypriots will be forced to sit on the sidelines, able to do little more than observe, or at best, pick up the scraps.

Such a scenario is not difficult to conjure. Cheap Turkish goods could feasibly soon be pouring into the south via Limassol, taking a share of the multi-billion pound import sector while Turkish Cypriots are left struggling to squeeze a limited range of locally produced goods through the Green Line.
ISAD chairman Unsal Ozbilenler was equally concerned.

“Turkish Cypriots are now EU citizens. They carry the passport, but they cannot generate wealth from the lands on which they live,” he told the 100 or so audience gathered at the Chamber of Commerce headquarters in north Nicosia.

Like Erel, he called for a genuine implementation of a free market that would allow “all one million Cypriots and 70 million Turks to trade without barriers”.

Erel advocated being “proactive”, but exactly what needed to be acted upon but – apart from getting Greek Cypriots to vote ‘yes’ to the Annan plan – no one seemed quite sure of how.
“Every day that we are not proactive makes the problem harder to solve,” Erel insisted. Nice words, but as he said himself, “Every time we ask for free trade, we are accused of seeking recognition [for the north]”.

Did this mean, then, that economic solutions are only possible once the necessary political changes have been secured?

TUSIAD’s veteran advisor and EU optimist Ilter Turkmen sought to calm the Turkish Cypriot members of the audience and panel telling them that the necessary political changes would come. Indeed, in his mind, many of them had already begun.

“I first came to the island in 1965, and those who did not see cannot imagine the hardships the Turkish Cypriots had to suffer. Now there is talk of an per capita income of $7,500 per annum – something that would create envy in Turkey,” he said.

Turkmen’s point was that things had improved immensely and that they would continue to do so.
“Before there was a wall that could not be crossed, but now we see great development in relations between the two communities,”

He advised Turkish Cypriots not to dwell on the Greek Cypriot ‘no’ to the Annan plan by saying, “No one should ask why they said ‘no’. It was their democratic right to do so”.

Furthermore, he hailed the fact that Turkish Cypriots were in dialogue with the EU.

“You are sending delegations to Brussels. You are undergoing a process of transition, and it may go on for quite a while,” he concluded.

He also highlighted a transformation in relations between Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots by saying, “We are much more frank and open with each other now”.

Erel, however, was not easily placated and sought to emphasise that if Turkish Cypriots were forced to wait for better days, many would leave before the better days arrived.

“We all have EU passports now, so leaving is easy; $7,500 dollars a year might be better than before, but $15,700 a year might actually keep our people here.”

TUSIAD president Omer Sabanci again sought to calm Erel and his Turkish Cypriot counterparts, but this time dwelt more on what the EU and Greek Cypriots had failed to do for the community.
“While we were pleased with the EU report on Turkey, we are saddened by the low morale caused by the EU’s broken promises to the Turkish Cypriots and surprised at the EU’s failure to fulfil its commitments to them,” he said, adding that it was clear the Green Line regulation would do little or nothing to lift the community out of isolation and relative poverty. He also apportioned some blame on the Greek Cypriots, who he said had “failed to understand the historical significance of the Annan plan”.

Sabanci did have one thing to offer the Turkish Cypriots, however.

“Before December 17, TUSIAD will be visiting 12 countries. While pushing for a starting date for Turkey’s accession negotiations, we will also push for support for the Turkish Cypriots.”

Thus, the panel left the participants and audience in no doubt about one thing: that nothing about the future is certain, and that while Turkey has little control over the outcome of its relations with the EU, the Turkish Cypriots have even less.