7 January 2004

1. "Water and Hatay region main points of contention between Ankara and Damascus", water from the Euphrates river and the Hatay region are the main points of contention between Ankara and Damascus, but are unlikely to break out into the open during Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's landmark visit to Turkey that began Tuesday.

2. "Syria, Turkey warn Iraqi Kurds against breaking away", the leaders of Iraq's neighbors, Syria and Turkey, insisted Tuesday that Iraq remain united, issuing a warning to Kurds who may aspire to create an independent state in the north of the country.

3. "Powell Back Kurds' 'Historical Identity'", Secretary of State Colin Powell offered U.S. support Tuesday for Kurds' aspirations to preserve their historical identity in the postwar Iraq.

4. "Trouble looms after coalition tells Kurds self-rule can stay", Kurdish political leaders have been reassured that their region's semi-autonomous status will be allowed to continue after the handover to Iraqi self-rule on June 30.

5. "The Kurds should fast-forward Iraqi democracy", the rising controversy over Kurdish demands for more autonomy within Iraq is a tale of the country’s past ­ but also its future. Many of the most problematic elements of Iraq’s modern history converge on the issue of autonomy for the Kurds within the context of a unified, federal country.

6. "The Kurds' New Cause", rivals are uniting behind economic growth in the northern Iraqi region

7. "Promises for UN’s Cyprus proposals", Nicosia awaits Annan’s reply.

8. "Egoyan awaits details about Turkish film ban", Country seemed open to dialogue.

1. - AFP - "Water and Hatay region main points of contention between Ankara and Damascus":

ANKARA / 6 January 2004

Water from the Euphrates river and the Hatay region are the main points of contention between Ankara and Damascus, but are unlikely to break out into the open during Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's landmark visit to Turkey that began Tuesday.

The two countries, which share a border more than 800 kilometers (500 miles) long, concluded an agreement in 1987 which stipulates that Turkey must keep the average annual flow of the Euphrates where it passes into Syria at 500 cubic meters (17,500 cubic feet) per second.

Originating in Turkey, the 2,800 kilometer-long (1,740 mile) river winds through Syria and into Iraq. But Syria has demanded a "more equitable" sharing of water from the river, and has accused Turkey of rationing the flow, especially during summer months, as part of dam and irrigation projects.

Turkish authorities have rejected the accusations, saying Syria's problems are due to a lack of dams to hold the water it receives. The second major point of contention is the Hatay province in south central
Turkey, situated with the Mediterranean Sea to the west and Syria to the east and south.

The region was part of the French mandate over Syria following World War One, but following pressure from Turkey, the League of Nations conducted an inquiry that agreed with Ankara's claims that most of region's residents were Turks.

With war with Nazi Germany looming, France gave the region its independence and residents voted to join Turkey in a 1939 plebiscite, which Syria has refused to recognize. The region, whose capital is Antakya (formerly Antioch) and includes the Biblical city of Alexandretta, now Iskenderun, is still portrayed as part of Syria in Syrian maps and schoolbooks, to the fury of Turkish officials.

Turkish-Syrian ties hit an all-time low in 1998 when Ankara threatened military action if Damascus continued giving shelter to Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan and his armed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) waging a separatist bloody campaign against the Turkish government.

Tension eased in October that year when the countries signed a security agreement under which Syria pledged to stop supporting the rebels and Ocalan was expelled from his long-time haven.

2. - Chicago Sun-Times - "Syria, Turkey warn Iraqi Kurds against breaking away":

ANKARA / 7 January 2004 / by Louis Meixler

The leaders of Iraq's neighbors, Syria and Turkey, insisted Tuesday that Iraq remain united, issuing a warning to Kurds who may aspire to create an independent state in the north of the country.

In Washington, Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States believes the Iraqis should decide the future of the overwhelmingly Kurdish northern region, but ''it is absolutely clear'' it must remain part of Iraq.

The statements came as Iraq's Governing Council has been hammering out details of a new government for Iraq. Iraqi Kurdish leaders are asking for greater autonomy for the oil-rich north and a federal Iraq based on two ethnic states.

Although Iraqi Kurdish leaders are not asking for independence, Turkey fears that increased autonomy and states based on ethnic identity will encourage separatism.

Turkish Kurdish rebels fought a 15-year war for autonomy in southeastern Turkey that claimed some 37,000 lives.

Turkish leaders have repeatedly said they will not tolerate Kurdish independence in Iraq, which they say will lead to the disintegration of the country and the destabilization of the region. Iran, Syria and Turkey all have large Kurdish minorities in regions bordering Iraq.

''We condemn all approaches that pose a threat to Iraq's territorial integrity,'' Syrian President Bashar Assad said after flying to Ankara in the first visit to Turkey by a Syrian head of state and meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Necdet Sezer.

Sezer added that Syria and Turkey ''share the same views on the protection of Iraq's territorial integrity and of its national unity.... We confirmed that Turkey and Syria, as two countries of the region that neighbor Iraq, are determined to effectively watch over these goals.''

Earlier, Assad told CNN Turk television that ''if there is no territorial integrity in Iraq, we cannot talk about stability in Iraq or in our countries. ... We are not only against a Kurdish state, but any state that would break the integrity of Iraq.''

3. - The Associated Press - "Powell Back Kurds' 'Historical Identity'":

WASHINGTON / 6 January 2004 / by Barry Schweid

Secretary of State Colin Powell offered U.S. support Tuesday for Kurds' aspirations to preserve their historical identity in the postwar Iraq.

However, Powell said U.S. policy on the future of "major constituencies" in Iraq was "to let the Iraqis work this out" while ensuring areas populated by Kurds remain part of Iraq.

The Kurdish region stretches from the north almost to the center of Iraq. It was under U.S. and British protection during Saddam Hussein's rule and remains a semi-autonomous part of the country.

"Clearly, the Kurds wish in some way to preserve their historic identity and to link it in some way to geography," Powell said. "But I think it is absolutely clear that that part of Iraq must remain part of Iraq."

Powell said at a news conference that the U.S. government doesn't intend on pushing Iraq or Turkey on the issue.

"Our position is to let the Iraqis work this out," Powell said. He added that how postwar Iraq recognizes the many groups in the country has not been worked out.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is expected to seek assurances that Iraqi Kurds will be kept in check when he calls on President Bush later this month.

A senior American diplomat said on Monday that Turkey, a valued U.S. ally, wanted to ensure there would be balance in Iraq so that Kurds do not have a disproportionate influence that would lead to Kurdistan independence.

The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the Turks have told American officials that they do not believe ethnicity should be a basis for the way Iraq is governed.

He said the Bush administration agreed Iraq should not be divided after the U.S.-led coalition authority leaves Baghdad.

Erdogan is due to start his visit in Washington on Jan. 26. Turkish and U.S. officials have not determined how long he will stay.

The New York Times reported Monday that Iraq's interim leadership and the United States had agreed on a semi-autonomous region for the Kurds in northern Iraq.

In response, Powell said Tuesday that he had read some stories about the Kurds that "perhaps overstated what our position is."

Kurds make up about 20 percent of Iraq's population. The number of Kurds in Iraq has been estimated at 2 million to 5 million people.

Turkey has a sizable Kurdish population. A 15-year insurgency by Kurdish rebels in Turkey ended in 1999, but the rebels now have bases in northern Iraq and the potential to resume fighting. Turkey fears that Kurds living in an autonomous area of northern Iraq could declare independence and rekindle the insurgency in Turkey.

The Kurds had their own country briefly after World War I.

4. - The Guardian - "Trouble looms after coalition tells Kurds self-rule can stay":

6 January 2004 / by Owen Bowcott and Brian Whitaker

Kurdish political leaders have been reassured that their region's semi-autonomous status will be allowed to continue after the handover to Iraqi self-rule on June 30.

The decision, which will infuriate neighbouring states and antagonise other Iraqis, is likely to have far-reaching consequences for any future constitutional settlement.

There have already been armed clashes in Kirkuk - with Arabs and Turkomans against Kurds - over control of the disputed, oil-rich city. Last week six people were killed.

The deal on preserving regional autonomy was reached at the weekend at a meeting in the Kurdish city of Irbil, when the American administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, and his British deputy, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, met Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic party (KDP). The latter group is determined to extend its control beyond what were once the "safe havens" to the whole of the predominantly Kurdish north, including Kirkuk.

Allowing the Kurds to retain regional government is tacit recognition that the coalition has neither the time nor resources to dismantle the existing Kurdish parliament and administrations if they are to meet the June deadline. Those bodies date back to the end of the 1991 Gulf war, surviving outside of Saddam Hussein's rule under allied protection.

The British and Americans formally maintain that whether or not Iraq becomes a federal state, with semi-autonomous regions or simply local governorates, is up to the Iraqis.

But by not challenging the status quo, the coalition may leave the Kurds in a stronger position at constitutional talks. Mr Bremer wants a US-style federal constitution in which the largest devolved bodies would become Iraq's 18 governorates.

"This statement which has come out is a positive one and says the Kurdish areas should have self-rule," Dilshad Miran, the KDP representative in London, said yesterday.

"The borders have not been settled but the US has said it will be semi-autonomy.

"The area will not be agreed until there's been a proper census and the policies of Arabisation [carried out by the Ba'ath party] have been reversed. It will be a tough negotiation."

A Kurdish semi-autonomous region should be like Scotland within Britain, he said. Defence and foreign policy should be left to Baghdad.

The spokesman for the PUK in London, Howar Haji, said the Americans and British had "agreed that the existing safe havens will continue" to exist after June 30. The Irbil meeting also confirmed that up to 200,000 Kurds expelled from the Kirkuk region under Saddam's rule will be allowed to return, according to Mr Haji. In the short term the rival KDP and PUK administrations were likely to merge.

Kurdish ambitions are worrying other Iraqis, not least the estimated 2 million Turkomans who live mainly in the north-east. The creation of the safe havens effectively split the Turkomans into those dominated by the Kurds and those ruled by Baghdad. This division would be consolidated by the US plans.

Although Saddam changed the population balance by resettling Arabs there, the Turkomans regard Kirkuk as their city. The Kurds, meanwhile, view the city as an essential part of a future Kurdish state, because of its oilfields.

In an interview with an Arabic paper, the Turkoman member of Iraq's governing council, Songul Chapouk, hinted that the Turkomans would declare their own "Turkmanistan" if the Kurds looked like fulfilling their ambitions.

Such a move would mark the start of a civil war in the north - one in which neighbouring Turkey could feel obliged to intervene because of its cultural affinity with the Iraqi Turkomans and its fears about its own Kurdish minority.

5. - The Daily Star - "The Kurds should fast-forward Iraqi democracy":

6 January 2004

The rising controversy over Kurdish demands for more autonomy within Iraq is a tale of the country’s past ­ but also its future. Many of the most problematic elements of Iraq’s modern history converge on the issue of autonomy for the Kurds within the context of a unified, federal country. These elements include colonialism, post-colonial distortions and stresses, regional machinations with Israel, Iran and others, global interference by the US and other powers, suffering at the hands of a brutal regime in Baghdad, internecine political quarrels and armed clashes among the Kurds themselves, often messy relations with other minorities in Iraq, the quest to control oil, and mechanisms for sharing power in a national government, to mention only the most obvious. This lengthy list of problems from the past only highlights the other side of the coin in today’s circumstances: The Kurdish autonomy question, in view of the Kurdish experience since 1991, offers a potentially powerful countervailing force to the immobility that seems to define many aspects of the quest for a power-sharing formula in Baghdad.

Iraq’s interim Governing Council president, Adnan Pachachi, said two days ago that he is committed to a federal Iraq, but he urged Kurds to be patient. Equally useful advice would be to urge the Kurds to go beyond mere demands, and instead to inject a new dose of credibility and dynamism into the quest for Iraqi good governance by sharing their rich recent experience with the nascent institutions of state that are still taking shape in Baghdad.

Pachachi said that the interim Iraqi leadership and the country as a whole had accepted federalism in principle, but could not say what form of federalism would apply in Iraq. The federal framework he mentioned must be designed with great care if it is to last and give the opportunity of self-rule to both the Kurds and the Shiite majority in the south.

The Kurds of Iraq can gain from being patient, but could contribute even more to their aims and to the shared goals and rights of their fellow Iraqi nationals by sharing on the larger Iraqi stage the particular lessons and successes of their own Kurdish democratic and autonomous experience since 1991. Kurdish leaders Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani have given draft legislation to the Governing Council demanding the immediate creation of an enlarged autonomous region, without waiting for the adoption of an interim Basic Law in March or promulgation of a national constitution for Iraq. They would do well also to share with the council the constructive lessons they have learned in the north in recent years, about citizen rights, equal opportunities for all, allocating scarce financial resources, forging political compromises, electing representative officials and holding them accountable, and other fundamental aspects of a democratic, pluralistic and representative governance system.

The Kurds have suffered for many decades at the hands of a terrible regime that transformed Arab nationalist ideology into brutal chauvinism. Sometimes the Kurds also suffered retribution from Baghdad as a response to their reliance on foreign assistance.
Pachachi charged that recent clashes in the north aimed to “fuel the flames of ethnicity and sectarianism and plunge us into conflict, and hinder our efforts toward reconstruction and democracy.”
Reconstruction and democracy are what the Kurds have achieved to an impressive extent in the north, and they should take the lessons of that experience and inject them into the floundering deliberations in Baghdad.

6. - Business Week - "The Kurds' New Cause":

Rivals are uniting behind economic growth in the northern Iraqi region

ARBIL / 6 January 2004 / by Stanley Reed

The plane wasn't much to look at -- an aging, leaky Boeing 727 in the livery of the West African airline, UTA. But it drew an enthusiastic crowd when it touched down recently on a primitive runway outside the northern Iraqi city of Arbil. On board were entrepreneurs and development experts eager to check out the Kurdish region, an area roughly the size of Jordan in northern Iraq. "This was the first time our people have seen a commercial flight flying over our city," declared Nechirvan Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdish regional government based in Arbil.

A tall, lean 37-year-old, Barzani is emerging as a key figure in the effort to forge a new Iraq. He hails from a renowned clan that has struggled for Kurdish independence from Iraq for decades. His grandfather, Mullah Mustafa Barzani, fought for the cause until he died in exile in Washington, D.C., in 1979. His uncle, Massoud Barzani, championed the resistance against Saddam Hussein's regime, which was responsible for tens of thousands of Kurdish deaths.

Now, in the wake of Saddam's defeat, the young Barzani would like nothing more than to bring independence and economic prosperity to Iraq's Kurdish enclave -- a stretch of green plains and looming mountains dubbed Kurdistan. Barham Salih, head of a rival regional government based in the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah, two hours' drive to Arbil's south, also wants to seize the moment. But both leaders realize that seeking full independence for the enclave, which has enjoyed substantial autonomy since it was carved out under U.S. military protection after the 1991 gulf war, isn't practical right now. Such a move could stir hostility in neighboring Turkey and Iran -- and is opposed by Washington.

The Kurds, who form 15% to 20% of the Iraqi population, differ from Iraq's Arab majority in language and traditions. But instead of spurning their old enemies, they are participating in Baghdad politics while trying to get their own house in order. The rival governments, each of which has controlled about half the region since fighting split the enclave in the mid-1990s, are now largely cooperating. The Kurds want, as it were, to beat their Kalashnikovs into laptops and focus on development. "Politics are beginning to change," says Salih. "Business investment and free trade are things people are more and more concerned about."

How the Kurds play their cards could be crucial to Iraq's future. The Kurds want to maintain, and perhaps even strengthen, their current degree of autonomy, which allows them to control their own economy, armed forces, schools, and judiciary. "Without a solution to the Kurdish question, it will be impossible for stability to return to Iraq," Barzani warns. But if the Kurds push too hard, they could make the daunting task of reconstructing Iraq even more difficult. Friction could develop with Baghdad over Kurdish-inhabited areas, such as oil-rich Kirkuk, outside the enclave. The Kurds would like to incorporate Kirkuk but realize such a step might be too divisive.

A SAFER BEACHHEAD. While the politicians in Baghdad hammer out a political formula, the Kurds are forging ahead with plans to capitalize on their region's relative stability. To attract capital, they have enacted investment laws and formed a company called Kurdistan Development Corp. The pitch to potential investors: Establish a beachhead in northern Iraq where it is safer and the people are pro-Western, then expand south when the smoke clears. "The northern region as a whole can be a gateway to Iran and Turkey and may act as a distribution and logistics center," says Iraqi Trade Minister Ali Allawi.

Northern Iraq may again become a tourist center, too. In calmer days, Iraqis used to flock to its hills and lakes to escape the hellish 120-degree summer days in Baghdad. The area also boasts some of Iraq's best agricultural land, and Kurdish officials say substantial oil deposits lie below. While Arbil is a muddy town in need of a facelift, Sulaymaniyah is a gem with a vast covered souk and modern buildings.

Both Sulaymaniyah and Arbil are much less menacing than Baghdad. True, a suicide bomber killed five people in Arbil in late December. But the bursts of gunfire that often break out in Baghdad are not to be heard in either Kurdish city. Only local Kurdish troops, known as peshmergas, carry weapons. No American armored vehicles patrol the streets. Just 200 American military personnel are stationed in Kurdish-controlled areas, and the U.S. hasn't lost a single soldier.

Given these relatively positive conditions, deals are getting under way, if slowly. Kurdistan Development Corp., with Kuwaiti partner K-International Aircraft Leasing, is working on providing regular commercial flights into Arbil. A functioning airport could be a huge asset since Baghdad International Airport is hampered by fear of missile attacks on aircraft. "We are looking at two flights a week starting on Jan. 4," says Ramsay Shaban, a former Iraqi Airways executive helping to organize the service.

MIXED FOREIGN INTEREST. Saddam's downfall has given Kurds the confidence to step up their own investments. Faruk Mustafa Rasool, who runs a Sulaymaniyah telecom and construction empire, says his revenues have jumped tenfold, to an annualized $100 million, since Saddam's fall. His Asia-Cell Company for Telecommunications recently won the mobile license for northern Iraq along with a Kuwaiti partner. He also has a license to set up a private bank. With no real banking system, businesses deal in stacks of dollars and local dinars.

If all goes well, Salih foresees a healthy local economy based on light industry such as pharmaceuticals and agribusiness and lucrative trade with Turkey and Iran. Meanwhile, he and Barzani are vying to slash taxes and spur building -- the key local industry. Despite their rivalry, the two sides are negotiating to reunify the region. The scuttlebutt is that Barzani would head the enclave, while Salih could be Iraq's future U.N. representative.

Of course, much more needs to be done to make the region attractive for investors. Foreign executives have mixed reactions to the Kurds. John Pitts, managing director of Britain's e-Jet International Ltd., which builds fuel systems for airports, says working through the Kurds might be "a low-risk way of getting into Iraq, commercially and securitywise." Others are less sanguine. Vincenzo Guarino, an executive of Power2Water, a Canadian water company, doubts Kurdish consumers would generate enough revenue to justify building a $20 million bottling plant. Many Kurdish workers earn only $50 to $100 a month.

Meanwhile, some local businessmen say the Kurdish areas are not immune from the cronyism and shakedowns that plague the rest of the Middle East. "There are lots of little Saddams," says one. "If [Kurdish chiefs] are so popular, why do they need so many armed men?" Be that as it may, the Kurdish areas still seem years ahead of the messy situation to the south. If the rest of the country's problems don't drag them down, the Kurds could play an important role in stabilizing Iraq.

7. - Kathinerini (Greece) - "Promises for UN’s Cyprus proposals":

Nicosia awaits Annan’s reply

7 January 2004

Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos said yesterday that his government wanted reunification talks to begin and that he expected UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to respond soon to his request to resume his involvement in the negotiations. A day earlier, Turkey expressed its support for a resumption of the talks and the country’s military denied reports of a rift with the government over Cyprus.

In Nicosia, the National Council of top party and government leaders met on Monday and discussed the Cyprus issue, including a letter sent by US President George Bush to Papadopoulos. The Greek and Turkish prime ministers received similar letters urging them to return to talks aimed at adopting Annan’s reunification plan before Cyprus joins the EU on May 1.

“We will reply, stressing our steady desire for the start of talks without preconditions,” Papadopoulos said yesterday. He said he was expecting Annan to respond in the next few days to Cyprus’s request for him to get involved again.

Papadopoulos expressed skepticism at Ankara’s announcement on Monday that it wanted a resumption of the talks. “It remains to be seen in practice whether it accepts (the Annan plan) or whether this is a show of acceptance so that it can set conditions that will neutralize it.”

Turkey’s government spokesman, Cemil Cicek, said after a Cabinet meeting on Monday, “The fact that Turkey is expending more efforts for a solution when compared to the past should not be overlooked... We sincerely want a settlement,” Cicek said. “If the conflict is not resolved within a certain time frame, the responsibility will not be Turkey’s,” he added. The Cabinet was briefed on a draft proposal being prepared by the Turkish Foreign Ministry on the basis of the Annan plan. “We accept the Annan plan as a basis of negotiations. Naturally, this does not mean that we accept it entirely as it is. But we say there are issues worth negotiating there,” Cicek said. Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash opposes the Annan plan.

Turkey’s general staff denied a report in the Cumhuriyet daily that it was at odds with the Foreign Ministry, saying the military believes in “finding a just and durable solution.”

8. - The Toronto Star - "Egoyan awaits details about Turkish film ban":

Country seemed open to dialogue

7 January 2004 / by Karen Palmer

The Canadian writer-director of a controversial film about Turkey's historical genocide says he's surprised a country that seemed so committed to starting a dialogue about its painful past has postponed screening the film amid fears of attacks.

Atom Egoyan, whose award-winning film Ararat was scheduled to begin showing in Turkey on Jan. 16, said he's still waiting to hear more details from the Turkish film distributor about why its screening was scuttled.

"The only way I can understand this being postponed is if these threats were taken very seriously. What I can't determine is whether the threats were against the distributor or against the government as well," he said, noting that he has been scouring the Internet looking for credible information.

Just before the new year, the Turkish cultural minister agreed to release the film, saying it could trigger a dialogue.

"All of those were huge and significant statements, so it seems surprising to me that a few days later the whole process is scuttled and postponed," Egoyan said.

Ararat focuses on the bloody years between 1915 and 1923, when 1.5 million Armenians died while being expelled from Turkey, and carries forward to the present, depicting a family in modern-day, multicultural Toronto, struggling to deal with the wounds left by the genocide.

Turkish nationalists have denounced it as propaganda and the former Turkish cultural minister refused to allow it to be screened.

"I've had lots of threats making this movie, all the way along, actually ... but I really didn't take them seriously," Egoyan said.

The Armenian National Committee of Canada said the film distributor, Istanbul-based Belge Films, pulled the film's release after receiving threats from Ulku Ocaklari, a group with ties to the Grey Wolves, a nationalist paramilitary group, as well as the Turkish military and intelligence units.

Egoyan said he's uncertain of the exact nature of the threats, but acknowledged that the group has a history of violence.

"I really don't know the internal situation enough, but I do know that that group was linked to a number of very violent actions," he said. "I do know that this group is very opposed to the government on this issue. It sees the government as a traitor to the Turkish nationalist cause."

Egoyan suspects the people making the threats haven't seen the film.

"It's a complex and considered piece of work, it's not a blunt propagandistic movie," he said.

The Turkish government censored at least one scene in the film, showing a Turkish soldier raping an Armenian woman.

"As an artist I can't condone any cuts on the movie at all. The imagery that it shows is so carefully considered, any attempt to change or delete moments is reprehensible," Egoyan said.