30 January 2004

1. "US's Kurdish ban risks backfiring", in news that must have been music to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ears, L Paul Bremer, the US proconsul in Iraq, on Wednesday announced that the United States-led coalition regards the Kurdish Workers' Party, or PKK, as a terrorist organization.

2. "Iraq: Kurdish Politician Concerned By U.S. Stance On PKK", L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. civil administrator in Iraq, yesterday announced that the U.S.-led coalition regards the Kurdish Workers' Party, or PKK, as a terrorist organization. The PKK is accused of using northern Iraq as a base for staging attacks on neighboring Turkey, which has been engaged in a decades-long struggle with Kurdish rebels.

3. "Bremer moves against Kurdish workers' party in north Iraq", Paul Bremer, the US administrator in Baghdad, yesterday declared that the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) and its affiliates which use northern Iraq as a safe haven would be treated as terrorist organisations by coalition troops.

4. "Kurds Press for Independence", effort Alarms Neighbors and Threatens U.S. Plan for Iraq

5. "Taste of autonomy inspires Kurds' dreams of more", The U.S. has long held up Kurdistan as an example of what can be achieved under Western-style democracy. And while the U.S. encouraged the autonomous Kurdish region during Hussein's rule, it now worries that an Iraq divided into ethnic cantons would seed instability throughout the Middle East. But a quasi-independent Kurdistan appears to be the likely outcome of a process that threatens to slip from the Bush administration's control.

6. "Turkey, Seeking U.S. Pledge on the Kurds' Role in the New Iraq, Finds Mixed Message", Secretary of State Colin L. Powell assured Turkish leaders Thursday that in a newly sovereign Iraq the Kurds would have to relinquish their control of oil resources in the north.

7. "Left-wing parties join forces for upcoming local elections", Socialist People Party (SHP) Chairman Murat Karayalcin told a press conference on Thursday that members of the left-wing parties including the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), Labor Party (EMEP), SHP, Freedom and Democracy Party (ODP), Socialist Democracy Party (DP) and Free Turkey Party (OTP) have decided to form an alliance for the upcoming local elections.

8. "Powell sees 'a moment' for a deal on Cyprus", secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday that a resolution to the bitter 30-year division of Cyprus might be only months away.

1. - Asia Times - "US's Kurdish ban risks backfiring":

30 January 2004 / by Mark Berniker*

In news that must have been music to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ears, L Paul Bremer, the US proconsul in Iraq, on Wednesday announced that the United States-led coalition regards the Kurdish Workers' Party, or PKK, as a terrorist organization.

Bremer's announcement in Baghdad came several hours before a meeting in Washington between US President George W Bush and Erdogan. The PKK is accused of using northern Iraq as a base for staging attacks on neighboring Turkey, which has been engaged in a decades-long struggle with Kurdish rebels and which has itself banned the PKK.

No one should underestimate the depth of enmity between the Kurds and Turks, or how both groups could complicate an already shaky security situation in Iraq, and Kurdish moves for an autonomous Kurdish enclave in the new northern Iraq are making Ankara very edgy.

Erdogan is also trying to patch up US-Turkish relations, which took a body blow when the Turkish parliament denied US-led coalition forces access to Iraq through Turkey last year, and when Turkey reversed its decision to send troops to Iraq to help with peacekeeping.

While Bremer and Shi'ite leader Ayatollah al-Sistani have voiced different ideas about how, when and in what format elections will proceed in Iraq by July 2004, the Turks and Kurds have strong views concerning whether the new Iraq should be split along federal, geographic, or perhaps ethnic lines.

Ahead of his meetings with Bush, Erdogan addressed the Council for Foreign Relations in New York, saying: "There is a demand to establish a federation in the north of Iraq. We approve of neither an ethnic, nor religious-based federation. These developments will cause a difficult situation for Iraq in the future."

But the Kurds of northern Iraq, with strong ties to more than 13 million Kurds in Turkey, and perhaps another 20 million Kurds in Iran, Syria and elsewhere around the world, want to see an Iraq with a federal government structure. The Kurds see their northern region as becoming semi-autonomous, with access to the lucrative oil fields of Kirkuk and Khanakin, an area that the US doesn't consider Kurdish territory. The Kurds were an integral ally in the US-led invasion of Iraq, and not only came to the coalition's rescue in the north of Iraq, but also gave forces a transit way to Baghdad, something Turkey was not willing to do. No US or coalition forces have been killed in northern Kurdish-controlled areas of Iraq.

While the Kurds have sizeable nationalist aspirations, there are indications that the US is actively trying to reel them in, as they try to juggle a range of competing views coming out of the Sunni and Shi'ite communities in the many other regions of Iraq. Bremer met with Kurdish leaders in early January, and apparently emphasized that their hopes for a secular Kurdish state in the north go too far, and also don't sit well with the other 80 percent of Iraq made up of non-Kurds.

But the Kurds have never been big on compromise. There is no question that Turkey, Syria and Iran don't want to see what amounts to an autonomous Kurdish state in the north of Iraq, further hardening the Kurdish position. However, to ignore the Kurd's chance for some stability and autonomy would be a mistake, as well.

On January 27, Kurdish frustrations surfaced when officials in the Irbil province of Iraq threatened to close the offices of the Peace Monitoring Force (PMF), which is commanded by Turkish officers and a force of close to 400 mainly Iraqi Turkmen and Iraqi Assyrians. The PMF was put in place to patrol a line separating the two rival Kurdish groups: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Neschirwan Barzani, prime minister of the portion of northern Iraq controlled by his KDP forces, told the Associated Press that the PMF is no longer needed now that Saddam Hussein has been ousted and captured. The report quotes US Lieutenant-Colonel James Bullion of the US Army's Civil Affairs Battalion in Irbil as saying that it was "unlikely" that the Kurds would use force to expel Turkish troops in Irbil. But the tension remains.

While Barzani is talking tough, Erdogan is in Washington, and all indications point to Ankara angling for a closer relationship with the US, emerging as the foreign policy broker between the US and Europe on one hand, and the Middle East and Central Asia, on the other.

During his meeting with Erdogan, when concerns about Iraq were brought to the agenda, Bush reportedly confirmed that speculation about Iraq's territorial integrity will not be allowed. "We are aware of your [Turkey's] anxieties. You could be sure. I am an honest man; trust my word."

In a joint press briefing held after the meetings, Bush acknowledged that Turkey is an important friend and ally of the US. "We talked about a US Iraq ideal in territorial integrity and peace. [Erdogan] informed me about the Cyprus issue. I am very pleased by the effort to resolve the dispute. This is a matter that has continued for such a long time."

Erdogan's Turkey has signaled that it is willing to be a mediator between Syria and Israel, and is moving forward with resolving the longstanding row with Greece over Cyprus, so that it can position itself for possible talks on a vote to join the European Union in December.

On January 28, US Vice President Dick Cheney, speaking to a group of European newspaper columnists, reiterated US support for Turkey's bid to enter the EU, which is a far more popular proposition in Turkey than in much of Europe.

Turkey is trying to turn around from a low point for US-Turkish relations last year, when the Turkish parliament voted to not allow Turkish territory to be used as a staging ground for its invasion of Iraq. But now it appears the Turkish government will be extending some of its bases to be used for troop rotation and the gradual removal of much of the US force in Iraq through Turkey back to Europe and the US. Turkey is keen to be a broker, assisting in US troop departure from the region, something that many neighbors, and much of Islamic world, feel can't happen soon enough.

So, once again it looks like the Kurds are going to get the short end of the stick, and be told they will be given a degree of autonomy, but will not be allowed to control oil resources, pipeline taxes, or to maintain their own Peshmerga para-militia. It's hard to imagine that one, especially given the history. Surely, if the Turks have their way, the Kurdish aspirations will be muted, which could be a radicalizing influence on the more-rebellious Kurdish factions.

On January 28, Agence-France Press reported that close to 250 Arab tribal chiefs said they are strongly against Kurdish demands for the oil center of Kirkuk to be part of a still-to-be-determined Kurdish autonomous region in the north of Iraq. Kurdish leaders want to see the Kirkuk region included with the three other provinces which make up part of the Kurdish region.

Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington ahead of meetings with Bush, Erdogan said point blank that creating a federal structure based on ethnic and sectarian origins could shatter Iraq. The Turkish president went on to say the PKK is strengthening its position in northern Iraq.

Not everyone welcomed the US announcement on the PKK, however. Mahmud Uthman, an independent Kurdish politician and a member of the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council, told RFE/RL that Ankara's accusations regarding the PKK are unfounded and that the US is only seeking to pacify its North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey: "I think it is not founded, this declaration. [It's] only to satisfy Ankara. There is no basis for it, because first of all, the name has [been] changed from PKK to People's Congress. Their name has changed and they haven't fought or shot a bullet in the last four years."

Some observers have speculated that the US move might spur hostilities between the PKK and Iraqi Kurdish forces. But Uthman says such tensions would work only to Ankara's benefit and that he does not expect clashes between Kurdish factions in Iraq: "[The PKK] does not believe in fighting. They are not using violence at all, either in Turkey or in Iraq. And I think there are no problems now between them and Iraqi Kurdish parties. So I don't see any possibility of fighting. The Turkish government very much wants to see fighting between Iraqi Kurds and those from Turkey, but I don't think they will succeed."

The PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, urged his followers to leave Turkey in 1999, following a 15-year insurgency against Ankara that claimed some 35,000 lives. Some 5,000 PKK fighters and their families are believed to be hiding in the mountains separating northern Iraq from Iran. But Uthman says, according to RFE/RL, that it is unclear how many PKK members are in Iraq and how strong a challenge they might pose if attacked by coalition troops: "Well, I don't know. A few thousand people there are armed; they are like Peshmergas, although they are not using their arms. But there are also some other Kurds from Turkey who are now refugees in camps near Erbil. They are supervised by the United Nations, of course."

While the US is grateful for the Kurds' support and critical intelligence in northern Iraq, there is also evidence that the US State Department continues to be concerned about what it sees as possible links between Kurdish groups and terrorist activities. Despite evidence of several Kurdish splinter groups, several legitimate Kurdish leaders are still going to make their voices heard as parties continue to jockey for position in the evolving political map in Iraq.

On January 25, the London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat web site reported: "The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan [PUK], led by Jalal Talabani, member of the transitional Iraqi Governing Council [IGC], has called for holding elections for the assembly that will assume sovereignty from the coalition forces by July 2004 in what he described as a compromise formula. This formula is a compromise between Shi'ite leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's call for holding direct elections and the US call for holding elections to choose committees of representatives, who will elect the representatives of the transitional assembly."

Maybe the Kurds, finally, are ready to play a role in helping move Iraq towards elections and self-governance, and the removal of occupying coalition forces. But don't expect the Kurds to stay still, as Erdogan raises Turkey's foreign policy profile, and Syria and Iran also try to curb the aspirations of the Kurdish people.

* Mark Berniker is a freelance journalist specializing in Eurasian affairs and regular contributor for Asia Times Online.

2. - Radio Free Europe - "Iraq: Kurdish Politician Concerned By U.S. Stance On PKK":

L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. civil administrator in Iraq, yesterday announced that the U.S.-led coalition regards the Kurdish Workers' Party, or PKK, as a terrorist organization. The PKK is accused of using northern Iraq as a base for staging attacks on neighboring Turkey, which has been engaged in a decades-long struggle with Kurdish rebels. Ankara welcomed Bremer's remarks, but some observers say the move may anger those Iraqi Kurds who do not consider the PKK a terrorist threat.

PRAGUE / 29 January 2004 / by Valentinas Mite

Iraq's U.S. civil administrator, L. Paul Bremer, said yesterday that U.S. President George W. Bush has "committed to end the use of Iraq as a terrorist haven."

Bremer added that there is "no place for terrorism or terrorist organizations in Iraq," and named not only the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), but also its affiliates -- the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress and the Kurdistan People's Congress.

Bremer's announcement in Baghdad came several hours before the meeting in Washington between the U.S. president and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"The Turkish government very much wants to see fighting between Iraqi Kurds and those from Turkey, but I don't think they will succeed."Erdogan later praised the decision. It marks a distinct victory for Turkey, which has long sought U.S. intervention on the issue of PKK members in northern Iraq.

Ankara, which has fought for decades to suppress its own Kurdish minority and has banned the PKK on its own territory, accuses the group of using northern Iraq as a staging ground for attacks on Turkey.

Turkey and U.S. are anxious to put differences over Iraq behind them. In a deal reached last autumn to facilitate Turkey's agreement to sending peacekeepers to Iraq, the U.S. said it would "subdue the terrorist threat that might exist in this reference." The reference was clearly directed against the PKK, which the U.S. has long classified as a terrorist organization.

Not everyone welcomed the U.S. announcement, however. Mahmud Uthman, an independent Kurdish politician and a member of the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council, told RFE/RL that Ankara's accusations regarding the PKK are unfounded and that the United States is only seeking to pacify its NATO ally Turkey: "I think it is not founded, this declaration. [It's] only to satisfy Ankara. There is no basis for it, because first of all, the name has [been] changed from PKK to People's Congress. Their name has changed and they haven't fought or shot a bullet in the last four years."

Uthman says the PKK is peacefully pursuing political rights for Turkish Kurds, and that the best way to deal with it and other Kurdish groups is not to suppress them but to guarantee their rights at home: "I think Americans and everybody should press Ankara to change its policy to give general amnesty, without conditions, to allow those people to go back to Turkey and to try to let them [conduct] their activities there within the political and constitutional framework of the country. That would be the best thing for Turkey and for everybody."

Some observers have speculated that the U.S. move might spur hostilities between the PKK and Iraqi Kurdish forces. But Uthman says such tensions would work only to Ankara's benefit and that he does not expect clashes between Kurdish factions in Iraq: "[The PKK] does not believe in fighting. They are not using violence at all, either in Turkey or in Iraq. And I think there are no problems now between them and Iraqi Kurdish parties. So I don't see any possibility of fighting. The Turkish government very much wants to see fighting between Iraqi Kurds and those from Turkey, but I don't think they will succeed."

The PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, urged his followers to leave Turkey in 1999, following a 15-year insurgency against Ankara that claimed some 35,000 lives. Some 5,000 PKK fighters and their families are believed to be hiding in the mountains separating northern Iraq from Iran. But Uthman says it is unclear how many PKK members are in Iraq and how strong a challenge they might pose if attacked by coalition troops: "Well, I don't know. A few thousand people there are armed; they are like peshmergas [eds: Iraqi Kurdish fighters], although they are not using their arms. But there are also some other Kurds from Turkey who are now refugees in camps near Erbil. They are supervised by the United Nations, of course."

Uthman says the repression of the Kurds extends beyond Turkey and the PKK. Iraq's other neighbors, Iran and Syria, are also pressing the U.S. not to recognize the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous region. "We are suffering from this meddling into Iraqi affairs," Uthman says.

3. - Financial Times - "Bremer moves against Kurdish workers' party in north Iraq":

BAGHDAD / WASHINGTON / 29 January 2004 /
by Charles Clover and Guy Dinmore

Paul Bremer, the US administrator in Baghdad, yesterday declared that the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) and its affiliates which use northern Iraq as a safe haven would be treated as terrorist organisations by coalition troops.

"President Bush has committed to end the use of Iraq as a terrorist haven. There is no place for terrorism or terrorist organisations in the new Iraq," Mr Bremer said, singling out the PKK and its "aliases", the Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (Kadek) and the Kurdistan People's Congress (Kongra Gel).

The step is likely to please neighbouring Turkey, which has asked the US to take harsher measures against PKK guerrillas operating from Iraq. Mr Bremer released his statement just hours before President George W. Bush was to meet Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, at the White House.

Both sides are anxious to put differences over the war in Iraq behind them. In a deal reached last October to facilitate Turkey's agreement to sending peacekeepers to Iraq, the US said it would "subdue the terrorist threat that might exist in this area", referring to hideouts of the PKK in northern Iraq. The US has long classified the PKK as a terrorist organisation.

In the event, the US told Turkey not to send its peacekeepers because of the danger of a confrontation with Iraqi Kurdish forces.

Ankara continues to press the US to move against the PKK. General Ilker Basbug, the number two at Turkey's General Staff, said on January 16: "Our view is that the US must start some military actions against the [PKK] terror group within a short space of time."

However, a coalition move against the PKK in Iraq would be likely to anger Iraqi Kurds. "These people are not terrorists. They are simply asking for their rights in Turkey," said Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurd and member of the US-appointed Governing Council. "The US took this step only to satisfy Turkey."

Kurdish parties are pressing for guarantees of an autonomous Kurdish homeland within a federal Iraq to be written into Iraq's transitional law, due to be passed by the Governing Council on February 28.

Other Iraqi groups oppose granting the Kurds such a large degree of autonomy, though Kurdish groups have threatened to take the matter to a region-wide referendum as early as this year if their demands are not met.

Turkey staunchly opposes granting autonomy to Iraq's Kurds, fearing similar demands by their own Kurdish population.

4. - The Washington Post - "Kurds Press for Independence":

Effort Alarms Neighbors and Threatens U.S. Plan for Iraq

IRBIL / 30 January 2004 / by Daniel Williams

From a tent lined with the red, white and green flag of Kurdistan, a young man's amplified voice excitedly invited passersby Wednesday to "come sign the petition for federalism. It is a step to independence."

A cluster of laborers, shoppers and office workers pressed up to a table to write their names. Some stuck pins in their fingers and signed in blood.

This was the beginning of a mobilization of Iraq's Kurds. Although autonomy within a new, federal Iraq is their official goal, signer after signer at the tent wanted something more: separation, if not now, sometime in the near future. The boy in the booth did nothing to discourage the hope. On a busy, tree-lined street here, the genie of Kurdish desires was out of the bottle. The mood was one of exhilaration.

"We want to be like the rest of the world. There are plenty of countries much smaller than Kurdistan that have their own government, their own flag and their own freedom. We should not have any less," said Siyamend Kader, a high school student and enthusiastic supporter of independence.

"I don't know what federalism is," said Jabbar Mohammed, a gardener. "I don't care, as long as it means independence."

Kurdish aspirations have caused alarm in neighboring Turkey, Syria and Iran. Each has its own Kurdish minority, and all have warned of turmoil if Iraqi Kurds gain significant autonomy.

It also presents a potentially grave complication for U.S. plans to hand over authority to an Iraqi government by June 30. The Bush administration is committed to maintaining Iraq intact. But Kurdish leaders say they will not endorse the U.S. transition plan for Iraq unless it includes guarantees for autonomy involving disputed territory extending as far south as central Iraq.

Forming a government without the Kurds, until now the most enthusiastic supporters of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, would mean de facto disintegration of the country. Kurds make up 15 to 25 percent of Iraq's population.

There were no overt signs of anti-Americanism here Wednesday. Nonetheless, Kurds expressed dismay that their support for the war, which included putting Kurdish militias under U.S. command, was not being answered with firm help on autonomy. "America is our hope. We don't understand why they don't do more," said Saria Ezzedine, a college English teacher. "They have a federal system, don't they? Independence is our dream, but autonomy can be our reality, and we are having trouble getting that."

Before the war, autonomy was taken for granted. Kurds in the far north enjoyed virtual independence from Baghdad for a dozen years following the 1991 Persian Gulf War in a "no-fly" zone protected by U.S. and British warplanes. Exiled Iraqi opposition parties gathered by the Bush administration had repeatedly endorsed Kurdish autonomy.

This began to change last November, when the administration set a date for the transfer of authority in Iraq. The Kurds wanted ironclad guarantees. Suddenly, some of their erstwhile allies among Iraqi Arab political groups opposed the Kurdish autonomy formula, which included annexation of several areas with large Kurdish populations south of the no-fly zone.

Among the most disputed was Kirkuk, a city in the heart of Iraq's northern oil fields. The Kirkuk fields contain 40 percent of the country's petroleum reserves. The Kurds also want to remove tens of thousands of Arabs that Saddam Hussein's government moved into the area and bring back tens of thousands of Kurdish refugees he expelled.

For the past week, Kurdish political leaders have lobbied Iraqi politicians on the Governing Council, a U.S.-appointed group responsible for formulating rules for a new government, to endorse expanded autonomy. They have yet to succeed, Kurdish officials say.

Under the Kurdish plan, the central government would control national defense, foreign policy and financial and budgetary affairs.

"We view the transition rules as an interim constitution that will be hard to change later," said Saad Othman, who heads the Irbil regional branch of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which rules far-northern Iraq along with its sometimes bitter rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). "We Kurds have an expression: You struggle during cultivation, not the harvest. We want changes now, not later."

Kurds were signing the autonomy petition throughout the north as well as in Kirkuk and other towns and hamlets. Copies are to be delivered to President Bush, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, the European Union and the Iraqi Governing Council. The Kurds want a Kurdish referendum on their future, based on principles of self-determination.

While the Governing Council wrestles with the basic law, the KDP and PUK are taking steps to shore up their hold on the north. They plan to merge their administrations into a single government. A KDP official would be prime minister, a PUK leader his deputy. The PUK would hold the post of parliamentary speaker. The Kurds plan to hold parliamentary elections next year -- a goal independent of U.S. proposals to hold a nationwide vote in 2005.

From the Kurdish point of view, any decision to remain within Iraq would be purely voluntary. Geographically, culturally and socially, Kurds contend that Iraq begins south of the low Hamrin mountain range, which follows an arc south from the city of Mosul, then east through north-central Iraq. It is virtually impossible to find a red, white and black Iraqi flag in Irbil. Men in their early twenties speak little Arabic, if any.

On Wednesday, Kurds in the street expressed marked mistrust of the Arabs. Hussein's brutal suppression of Kurdish revolts, including the 1988 poison gas attack on civilians in the village of Halabja, massive roundups and executions and vast deforestation campaigns in northern Iraq left their mark. "Our life with the Arabs has been unhappy. Who is to say we won't have trouble again?" said Farhad Ahmed, a telephone technician.

The opposition to federalism voiced by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's leading Shiite Muslim cleric, also awakened Kurdish fears. Sistani and other opponents of autonomy equate federalism with division of Iraq.

5. - Chicago Tribune - "Taste of autonomy inspires Kurds' dreams of more":

SULAYMANIYAH / 29 January 2004 / by Tom Hundley

A dozen winters ago, during the last great repression by Saddam Hussein's regime, Kurds in this mountainous region of northern Iraq stayed alive by eating grass. These days they shop in sleek new supermarkets for Pringles potato chips and Belgian chocolates.

It would be difficult to overstate the economic and political progress that has exploded across the swath of Iraq known as Kurdistan. While the rest of the country withered under Hussein's rule, Kurdistan, protected by a coalition-enforced no-fly zone, flourished.

Today, as insurgents in Baghdad and the region known as the Sunni Triangle fight a persistent guerrilla war against the American-led occupation and Shiite clerics in the southern areas flex long-dormant political muscle, Kurdistan remains a relative island of Western-oriented stability.

In Sulaymaniyah, the provincial capital, merchants along Salim Street fill shops with wide-screen televisions, computers and the latest in cell phones.

At night, a carnival display of Christmas lights illuminates the downtown area - and this well into the new year. Christmas is not usually observed in Muslim lands, but Kurds can't seem to get enough of the West and its commercial ways. Proud parents line up children for photos with shopping-mall Santas, known here as Baba Noels, and then take them for an ice cream sundae at "MaDonals."

The U.S. has long held up Kurdistan as an example of what can be achieved under Western-style democracy. And while the U.S. encouraged the autonomous Kurdish region during Hussein's rule, it now worries that an Iraq divided into ethnic cantons would seed instability throughout the Middle East.

But a quasi-independent Kurdistan appears to be the likely outcome of a process that threatens to slip from the Bush administration's control. Scrambling to meet its self-imposed June 30 deadline for the handover of power in Iraq, Washington faces increasing pressure to yield to the Kurds' key demands.

For once, the gods of geopolitics seem to be smiling on the Kurds.

The large measure of autonomy and the self-governing institutions already established in Kurdistan likely will be left in place during the transition period. After that, it will be hard to change the status quo, U.S. officials concede.

More problematic are Kurdish demands for a referendum that almost certainly would give them control of the oil-rich region around the city of Kirkuk, and for a security policy that would allow the main Kurdish political factions to maintain their traditional militias while barring the Iraqi army from entering the Kurdish territory.

Earlier this month, Paul Bremer, head of the U.S. occupation authority, curtly rejected those demands, but he has since taken a softer approach. The turnabout would appear to reflect second thoughts about alienating the only piece of Iraq that seems to be functioning well, and a recognition that the Kurds, the only Iraqis who actively and enthusiastically supported the U.S. in the war against Hussein, are owed.

"Right now, we are almost independent," said Barham Salih, a prominent Kurdish politician. "By seeking reintegration into Iraq, we are giving up things; we are not asking for more."

Given Iraq's grim history of persecution and genocide against the Kurds, during Hussein's regime and before, it is remarkable that the Kurds would want anything to do with Iraq.

But the general feeling among the Kurdish population seems to be that while separation and independence would be nice, that will never happen. Some of Iraq's neighbors - Turkey, Iran and Syria, with Kurdish minorities of their own - would create too many problems. There also is a feeling that despite the troubled history with Iraq, there are certain advantages to being part of an important Arab country.

"Iraq belongs to Arabs, Christians, Jews and Kurds," said Sabah Muhammed, 40, a currency dealer in the Sulaymaniyah money trader's bazaar. "I was born in Baghdad, and I have many Arab friends. If the Arabs respect my rights, I see them as my brother."

The money trader's bazaar is the economic nerve center of Sulaymaniyah. It is housed in a two-story, open-air stairwell in the middle of a dimly lit covered market. The stairs are packed shoulder to shoulder with traders clutching calculators and thick bricks of dinars, the Iraqi currency. There are wires running everywhere, some leading to computers, some to electric coils that heat water for tea, some to the dozen satellite dishes on the roof that link Sulaymaniyah to the global economy.

On this morning, the dinar was rising smartly against the dollar, and the men who do business here offered pragmatic views of why Kurdistan should remain part of Iraq. The consensus was that it would be good for business.

"Kurdish businesses will benefit if everywhere is free for Kurds," said Faisal Muhammed, 35, a poor cobbler until a few months ago, now flush as a currency trader. "When we were not able to trade with Baghdad, it was a little like being in a prison up here. But now we are free to trade everywhere ... and everyone is happy."

Dubai is frequently invoked here. Most of the Western and Asian imports in Kurdish shops come via that gulf emirate. There also is a sense that if Dubai, which before the oil boom was an impoverished Arab backwater, can reinvent itself as an international trading and financial hub, why not Kurdistan, which sits astride some of the most storied trading routes.

While most of Iraq seems to be slipping into despair over the U.S. occupation authority's inability to make it secure, Kurds are among the few who see light at the end of the tunnel.

"Iraq is like a big man after you stop choking him. If you let him breathe, in time he will recover and grow strong," said Salam Salim, 45, the assistant manager at a hangar-size shopping center in Dohuk, another Kurdish city.

Most of the economic progress in the Kurdish north has occurred in the past five years, after the two main political factions, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, fought a brief civil war that led to a wary political settlement.

U.S. officials talk about Kurdistan's "democracy." It does have an elected parliament and elected local administrations, but it is effectively ruled by two tribal mafias, each jealously protective of its turf.

The KDP is headed by Massoud Barzani, a tribal chieftain who dresses and governs in the traditional, patriarchal manner. His father, Mustafa, founded the KDP and led a failed uprising against the Arabs during World War II. The rival PUK is headed by Jalal Talabani, who affects a more modern style. The two leaders loathe each other but, for the sake of political peace and profit, have learned the art of accommodation.

All the major economic projects in Kurdistan - the shopping malls and hotel complexes - have direct links to Barzani or Talabani. It would be a serious mistake to invest in a mall in KDP-controlled Dohuk, for example, without taking one of Barzani's nephews as a partner.

For the U.S. occupation authority and for Iraq's neighbors, the underlying fear is that autonomy for the Kurds will only whet their appetite for full independence. They worry that Kurdish politicians are playing a shrewd game, taking autonomy for now, keeping all options open for the future.

Not far from Sulaymaniyah's main market, an inconspicuous doorway opens into a cavernous cafe. Beneath chandeliers and slowly turning ceiling fans, men's chatter mingles with the clatter of backgammon games and the soft clinking of their tea glasses. Here, in the thin afternoon light filtered through a fog of cigarette smoke, long-frustrated dreams are sometimes given voice.

"I feel like I have lived my whole life for these last 10 years," said Muhammed Nergiz, 60, a renowned Kurdish folk singer. He wears the traditional checkered headscarf and baggy trousers of a Kurdish peasant.

"The other 50 years of my Kurdish life, either we are in prison, or in the mountains, or fighting or in sadness," he said. "In these last 10 years we have our freedom. ... We felt for the first time that we are human."

He noted, as Kurds often do when they speak with foreigners, that Kurds are the largest ethnic group on the planet who do not have a country to call their own.

"People know what's behind the curtain," he said. "If they give it to us, I would dance."

6. - New York Times - "Turkey, Seeking U.S. Pledge on the Kurds' Role in the New Iraq, Finds Mixed Message":

WASHINGTON / 29 January 2004 / by Steven R. Weisman

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell assured Turkish leaders Thursday that in a newly sovereign Iraq the Kurds would have to relinquish their control of oil resources in the north.

But on the second day of a visit to Washington by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish officials said they remained concerned that the United States might still yield to Kurdish demands for an autonomous state, which the Turks strongly oppose.

Turkey and other neighbors fear that an Iraq split up into ethnic or religious enclaves could stir up their own restive minorities. Asked if he still feared that Iraq could end up broken up into Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite regions, Mr. Erdogan demurred.

"We could say that the waters are murky at the moment," Mr. Erdogan said. "And we need to clear the water, clear the air, if you will."

A Turkish official traveling with the prime minister said the Turks remained "very worried" about the Bush administration's plans for the future of Iraq.

These concerns, Turkish officials said, were not dispelled by what they called a generally successful visit to repair relations that American and Turkish officials say have been battered over the last year.

An initial blow occurred on the eve of the Iraq war a year ago, when Mr. Erdogan's newly installed government in Ankara rebuffed an American request to let the Fourth Infantry Division use Turkey as a base to open a northern front in the military campaign to oust Saddam Hussein.

After the war, the United States made a strong effort to get Turkish forces to help secure parts of Iraq. Turkey reluctantly agreed, but the Iraqi Governing Council, handpicked by the United States, rejected the idea, embarrassing the United States.

Mr. Erdogan's visit was hailed by American officials as a sign that relations were on the mend.

President Bush said on Wednesday that he appreciated Mr. Erdogan's "steadfast determination to fight terror," alluding to bombings that have killed civilians in Istanbul.

Mr. Bush also told Mr. Erdogan that United States wants Iraq to be "a peaceful country, a democratic Iraq that is territorially intact."

Administration officials said the status of the Kurdish area remains to be worked out in negotiations between the Governing Council and Kurdish leaders, five of whom sit on the Council.

Some have described these discussions as among the most nettlesome before Iraq regains sovereignty. Lately, however, the discussions on future governance have become snagged on how a future legislature and prime minister will be selected.

Envoys from the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, are expected to determine whether the American plan for an elaborate system of caucuses to choose a legislature will be acceptable to a leading Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, or whether it has to be revised.

Administration officials say that whatever happens, the Kurdish area is unlikely to continue to enjoy the full autonomy that it has had since 1991, when the United States imposed a "no-flight zone," barring Mr. Hussein's forces from attcking the region by air and effectively granting the Kurdish area independence. Once the Iraq war began last year, Kurdish forces moved into some oil-rich areas of the north, including Kirkuk.

American officials said that, on this visit, Mr. Erdogan and his aides pressed to make sure that revenues from Kirkuk and other oil sites would go to the central Iraqi government in Baghdad, and Mr. Powell agreed.

Mr. Powell said there was a full understanding that "all the major resources will belong to all the Iraqi people."

Mr. Powell also pledged American support for Turkey's efforts with Greece to resolve their dispute over Cyprus. That dispute has been an impediment to Turkey's desire to join the European Union this year.

Membership in the union would mean tremendous economic advantages for Turkey.

In a speech at the American Enterprise Institute, Mr. Erdogan said Turkish membership would prove that a Muslim country was welcome in the Western world.

7. - Cihan News Agency - "Left-wing parties join forces for upcoming local elections":

ANKARA / 30 January 2004

Socialist People Party (SHP) Chairman Murat Karayalcin told a press conference on Thursday that members of the left-wing parties including the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), Labor Party (EMEP), SHP, Freedom and Democracy Party (ODP), Socialist Democracy Party (DP) and Free Turkey Party (OTP) have decided to form an alliance for the upcoming local elections.

The local elections are scheduled to take place on March 28, 2004.

Karayalcin said that the left-wing parties had reached an alliance deal by preserving their identities as well as their differences.

Deocratic People's Party (DEHAP) chairman Tuncay Bakirhan, EMEP leader Levent Tuzel, SHP leader Murat Karayalcin, ODP Chairman Hayri Kozanoglu, SDP Chairman Akin Birdal and OTP Chairman Ahmet Turhan Demir, held a joint press conference at the Ankara Park Hotel to declare their intent to join forces to contest the local elections.

Karayalcin, noting that the left-wing parties had failed to unite in the past, told reporters that they had finally reached an alliance by brushing aside old disputes.

Stating that they were forming an organized alliance, Karayalcin said, "For the first time, we do not care under which party umbrella we gather or who the chairman of the united left-wing parties will be. We are ready to embrace every party no matter what they may have stated in the past."

8. - International Herald Tribune - "Powell sees 'a moment' for a deal on Cyprus":

WASHINGTON / 30 January 2004 / by Brian Knowlton

Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday that a resolution to the bitter 30-year division of Cyprus might be only months away.

"I think we're getting close to a solution," he said at the State Department, speaking to reporters after a meeting with Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul of Turkey. "There is a moment of opportunity here," Powell said. "I think it's time for all of us to put pressure on all sides to get a resolution."

Although a variety of proposed solutions have encouraged and ultimately disappointed negotiators for decades, Powell said he hoped a settlement of the dispute could come by May 1. On that date, the Republic of Cyprus, which controls the Greek Cypriot-dominated southern part of the island, is scheduled to join the European Union.

Such a solution, most likely bringing the two sides together under some sort of loose federal system, is seen as crucial to Turkey's own hopes for EU membership.

Powell refused to say whether he would serve as mediator between the Greek and Turkish sides, as some in Ankara had hoped, or whether he would be a "facilitator," as Gul himself suggested during the brief appearance before reporters.

But Powell said that "we stand ready to use our good offices to help all the parties move forward."

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey met on Wednesday with President George W. Bush and later said that Bush had asked Powell to play a greater role on Cyprus.

The United States considers a peace framework advanced by Kofi Annan, the United Nations secretary general, to be "the operative plan," Powell said. The UN plan foresees reunification in a two-state federation, territorial adjustments favoring the Greek Cypriots and a limited return to the north of some of the 165,000 Greeks who fled to the south during the violent 1974 division.

Gul said Turkey accepted the Annan proposal as "the reference" from which negotiations could begin; the Greek side has made a similar commitment. But Annan has said he wants both to commit to accepting a settlement before he revives talks.

The two sides seemed to be competing this week to appear to be the more cooperative.

Erdogan told reporters after meeting with Bush that the Turkish authorities of northern Cyprus would stay "one step ahead of any positive step taken by the Greek Cypriot administration," according to the British Broadcasting Corporation.

Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek Cypriot president, pledged that "if the secretary-general tomorrow asks for talks, I will be there. No conditions, no terms, nothing." Papadopoulos also said, however, that the Greek part of the island - which has international recognition, while the self-proclaimed northern republic is recognized only by Turkey - could not accept radical change.

"If we are going to embark on a new start of fundamental principles, I find it difficult to see what we failed to do over the past 30 years to be done in about 30 days," he said, referring to a time frame suggested by Annan.

The island's charged history - hopes of a settlement have been raised and then dashed time and again - leaves a presumption of uncertainty over the prospects this time. Talks two years ago stalled after the north demanded recognition of a northern government within a confederation.

One thing that has changed since then is the urgency with which Erdogan, under a schedule shaped by the Turkish quest for EU membership, has been pressing to resolve the fierce dispute. Erdogan asked Annan earlier this month to revive negotiations.

If a Cyprus solution is not in place by May 1, only the Greek part of the island will gain the benefits of membership. Annan has suggested that a deal will have to be reached even sooner, by the end of March, to allow time for both sides of the island to hold votes on their future.

Progress on Cyprus has become a measuring stick for whether EU leaders will agree at a meeting in December to set a schedule for Turkish accession talks. A central source of European hesitation comes from criticism of Turkish human rights practices, including the treatment of the small ethnic Greek population in northern Cyprus.

But Romano Prodi, the EU Commission president, said Wednesday that he thought a solution was possible by May 1. In a meeting in Turkey this month, Prodi said, Erdogan had demonstrated a "very, very positive attitude." Turkey had in the past been hostile to reunification, favoring independence for the north, but that attitude has softened since the late 1990's.

Annan also said he was encouraged by Erdogan's recent comments.

"Turkey has indicated clearly its desire and willingness to see talks resume," he said.

The secretary-general told reporters in Brussels that he would "try and get these negotiations concluded as soon as possible."

Cyprus has been inhabited for more than 8,000 years, and Greek-dominated for more than 3,000; it lies far closer to the Turkish coast, however, than to Greece.

The self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was established after the island's division in 1974, when Turkish troops occupied the north after a Greek-engineered military coup aimed at imposing Greek control over the island, 14 years after its independence.

In contrast to the larger and more populous southern zone of the island, where the living standard is higher, the north has remained financially dependent on Turkey, which provides aid of about $175 million a year. EU membership would also help bring an end to the trade embargo against the north.