15 January 2004

1. "Turkey gambles with Cyprus policy", Turkey is gambling that a new drive to resolve the deeply divisive issue of Cyprus will be enough to protect its bid to join the European Union. But some say it may not want to play all its Cyprus cards before getting a firm "yes" to entry into the wealthy bloc.

2. "Europe asks Turkey to help unite Cyprus", Turkey was warned yesterday that it will be difficult to start long-awaited membership talks with the European Union next year if Cyprus remains divided.

3. "Turkey committed to reforms to secure EU green light for admission talks", Turkey, which hopes to get the green light from the European Union in December for the launch of EU accession talks, must first meet the conditions set by Brussels, including progress on implementing democratic reforms and settlement of the thorny Cyprus issue.

4. "KIRKUK: City a keystone for a unified Iraqi state", Iraq's long-suppressed Kurds have converged on oil-rich Kirkuk to claim it as their own, setting the stage for a struggle that will profoundly affect this country once the Americans hand over power to a new Iraqi leadership.

5. "People of Kirkuk should decide city's future, Kurdish leader says", the future of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, the scene of ethnic rivalries and violence, should be decided by its people through a referendum or elections, a Kurdish leader told Turkish television Wednesday.

6. "Turkey Seeks to Carve Out Conflict Resoltion Role in the Caucasus", Turkish officials view the recent leadership turnover in both Azerbaijan and Georgia as a diplomatic opportunity to promote stabilization in the strife-prone Caucasus. In particular, Ankara wants to act as a conflict mediator, with the aim of smoothing the way for pipeline construction in the region.

1. - Reuters - "Turkey gambles with Cyprus policy":

ANKARA / 15 January 2004 / by Gill Tudor

Turkey is gambling that a new drive to resolve the deeply divisive issue of Cyprus will be enough to protect its bid to join the European Union. But some say it may not want to play all its Cyprus cards before getting a firm "yes" to entry into the wealthy bloc.

Ankara's fingerprints are on two recent moves by Turkish Cypriots towards restarting talks on reuniting the Mediterranean island with their Greek counterparts, who will join the EU without them if agreement is not reached by May 1.

EU officials have made it plain that they hold Turkey responsible for breaking the stalemate, and that Ankara's own chances of getting a date for EU entry talks when the subject is decided in December will be hurt if there is no breakthrough.

Veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash on Monday appeared to ease his outright opposition to a UN reunification plan and his son Serdar Denktash has joined a pro-reunification party in a coalition government that was named on Tuesday.

But some say Ankara may try to drag out talks on the fate of Cyprus, split along ethnic lines for three decades, in the hope that Brussels will reward peace efforts when it reviews Turkey's membership bid, rather than insisting on a firm deal by May 1.

And hardliners in Turkey's powerful military and political establishment could still undermine the new initiative. "I don't know of any foreign policy issue on which Ankara is more fragmented," one Western diplomat said.

"The government has decided to play the game the Europeans asked them to play, but try to limit the domestic political risks at the same time. That means squaring the circle."

Turkey, which backs the northern Cypriot enclave with cash and at least 30,000 troops, is under huge international pressure to push the Turkish Cypriots back to peace talks with the Greek Cypriots on the basis of a UN blueprint called the Annan Plan.

Talks collapsed 10 months ago with Denktash flatly rejecting the Annan Plan, and time is now short before the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government joins the EU on May 1.

In principle the Greek Cypriots will be able to veto Turkey's entry bid later this year, although they are not the only EU member that might stand in Turkey's way.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his government, anxious to join the European club, seem to have accepted that the Annan Plan is the only practical framework for fresh talks.

And Turkey, the only country to recognise northern Cyprus as a state, holds enormous influence over Turkish Cypriot leaders. "It's the first time I've seen this resolve and a growing consensus on the part of Ankara to push for a Cyprus settlement," said Sedat Ergin, Ankara bureau chief for Hurriyet daily. "I think it's really genuine - they really mean it."

But some analysts say the government, though sincere in looking for a solution, is playing for time, nervous about rocking the boat with hardliners in the Turkish establishment.

"These are not efforts for a settlement before May 1, but efforts to create a window of opportunity before May 1," commentator Burak Bekdil wrote in Tuesday's Turkish Daily News.

"Ankara wants to synchronize its efforts for a solution with its (EU) candidacy timetable... The new initiative is about negotiations but not necessarily a deal before Turkey has won assurances for a date to open accession talks."

MILITARY QUALMS: Details of the new policy that have emerged in the Turkish media deal mainly with tweaking key figures, maps and deadlines in the Annan Plan on issues such as territory, the return of Greek Cypriots to the north and the removal of Turkish troops.

But Turkey's powerful generals are wary that the government will give too much away - especially on the troops issue - and they will push against any concessions aimed at a quick deal.

The final decision on the new policy has been deferred to a meeting later this month of the National Security Council, where the military remains influential despite democratic reforms.

2. - The Guradian - "Europe asks Turkey to help unite Cyprus":

BRUSSELS / 15 January 2004 by Ian Black

Turkey was warned yesterday that it will be difficult to start long-awaited membership talks with the European Union next year if Cyprus remains divided.

Bertie Ahern, the Irish prime minister and holder of the EU presidency, and Romano Prodi, president of the European commission, both signalled the need for a peace settlement. Technically, it is not a condition for beginning negotiations, but is bound to play a role when the then 25 EU leaders decide at their December summit whether to approve the start of what will be a long process.

Mr Prodi flies to Ankara today to "repeat the strong wish of the EU to welcome Turkey as an equal and respected member" and praise reforms undertaken to meet the union's accession terms. The first visit by an EC president for 40 years is intended to signal goodwill in advance of the commission's crunch decision on whether the country of 65 million Muslims has met the so-called Copenhagen political criteria for membership.

It will then be up to the member states to decide to start negotiations "without delay". Britain is a keen advocate of EU membership for an Atlanticist fellow Nato ally; so is the United States. France is bitterly opposed, though German opposition has softened in recent months.

Last November the commission saw "significant progress" by the moderate Islamist government of Recep Tayib Erdogan, but said more needed to be done on the independence of the judiciary, human rights, and the Kurds.

"There has been huge progress but we will also look at the question of implementation of legislation," Mr Prodi said in the European parliament.

Mr Ahern said: "It's a reality that the perception is that if we made progress in Cyprus, it would be very helpful."

3. - Khaleej Times - "Turkey committed to reforms to secure EU green light for admission talks":

ANKARA / 15 January 2004

Turkey, which hopes to get the green light from the European Union in December for the launch of EU accession talks, must first meet the conditions set by Brussels, including progress on implementing democratic reforms and settlement of the thorny Cyprus issue.

With EU accession seen by Ankara as an “absolute priority”, cabinet meetings here routinely focus on implementation of the EU criteria.

Last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that 2004 would be the year his government would implement reforms to meet those criteria. He said he had “declared war on three things: poverty, corruption and bans” on civil liberties, at a meeting of German and Turkish politicians and business leaders in Berlin.

Turkey has been lobbying for EU admission since 1959 but was recognized as a candidate state only in 1999.

The European Commission is to rule before the end of the year on a timetable for Turkey, a secular but mainly Muslim country and NATO member, to begin talks on joining the EU, which is due to expand by 10 members on May 1.

Last year, the Turkish parliament passed a number of reforms, from abolishing a law limiting freedom of speech to reducing the political power of the influential military, but most have yet to be implemented.

Brussels is worried about what it views as slow implementation of the reforms.

The Union has also increased pressure on Ankara to help settle the Cyprus problem, making it clear that a Cyprus deal would boost Turkey’s prospects for EU admission.

Ankara currently maintains some 30,000 troops in northern Cyprus and these will be deemed an occupying force of EU territory after May.

The EU is pressing for a settlement by May when it is set to admit the internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot side of the divided island. It says the Turkish Cypriots will be denied entry if a settlement is not struck in time.

Cyprus has been divided along ethnic lines since 1974 when Turkey occupied the north in response to an Athens-engineered Greek Cypriot coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece.

Ankara has suggested Cyprus peace talks could soon resume on the basis of a reunification plan put forward by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, which calls for a Swiss-style federation.

On Monday, EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen said he thought peace talks between Turkish and Greek Cypriots would resume very soon, insisting that a united Cyprus could yet join the bloc on May 1.

He was speaking after two Turkish Cypriot political parties, split over the prospect of reuniting the divided Mediterranean island, said they had formed a coalition government after elections in the breakaway north ended in deadlock.

4. - AP - "KIRKUK: City a keystone for a unified Iraqi state":

14 January 2004 / by Sarah el Deeb

Iraq's long-suppressed Kurds have converged on oil-rich Kirkuk to claim it as their own, setting the stage for a struggle that will profoundly affect this country once the Americans hand over power to a new Iraqi leadership.

Already, tensions are rising among the Kurdish, Arab and Turkomen ethnic groups vying for control of the city.

Despite their shared Muslim faith, the three communities have been distrusting and killing each other for centuries. The hatred boiled over in May with 11 people killed, then in August when at least another 11 people were killed. Fresh clashes left two more dead on New Year's Eve.

"This is not the Arabs' homeland. Their home is in the south," said Ribawar Ibrahim, a 25-year-old Kurd who fought against Saddam Hussein's rule.

Ibrahim is a peshmerga, or "one who faces death," who marched in with American forces and Kurdish comrades during the invasion of Iraq last year.

Ibrahim gave up his weapons after the fall of Kirkuk but is willing to pick up the gun again to keep the city in Kurdish hands.

"We will not tolerate anyone who betrays us," he said.

Another peshmerga, Saleh Ahmed Farag, 54, said, "You can ask the cemeteries and they will tell you that this is Kurdish land."

To ease tensions, U.S. troops are confiscating weapons and maintaining a nighttime curfew.

For centuries, Iraq's rulers have used ethnicity as a tool for controlling Kirkuk, which forms a natural border between Kurdish-majority northern Iraq and the Arab-majority south.

Kirkuk was a Kurdish town until the late 19th century, when Ottoman rulers encouraged Turkish-speaking settlers to move in.

The last reliable census, in 1957, found the Kurdish population of Kirkuk reduced to 48.3 percent. Arabs were 28.2 percent and Turkomen 21.2.

By the time Saddam came to power in 1979, his ruling Baath party's policy of "Arabization" of Kirkuk was in full swing - Arabs from central and southern Iraq were given financial incentives to settle here. Kurdish officials say an estimated 300,000 Kurds were evicted and forced to move north.

The northern provinces became free of Saddam's control after the first Gulf War in 1991 under a U.S.-enforced no-fly zone. The provinces became autonomously governed by Kurdish militias and parties.

Since the collapse of Saddam's regime, about 35,000 Kurds, including peshmerga guerrillas and civilians, have moved into Kirkuk, a city of 1.2 million people, and an estimated 100,000 Arabs have fled, said Kirkuk Deputy Governor Hasseeb Rosh-Bayani.

Many of the Kurds are occupying government buildings, museums, former Baath party headquarters, old British forts and the city's main soccer stadium.

Once a colorful ethnic cauldron, Kirkuk today has an entirely Kurdish face. Kurds dominate the police force, the new mayor is a Kurd and Kurdish schools have sprung up everywhere.

"They took advantage of the situation. The Kurds took over official posts, they took over institutions, even buildings. They just inherited the old regime," said Hussein Ali Saleh, a local Arab leader.

Kurds initially wanted a democratic Iraq to be divided into two federal states - Kurd and Arab. But most Iraqis and neighboring countries objected, fearing ethnic separatism would flare.

Kurds now are leaning toward the idea of creating a half-dozen smaller autonomous states with Kirkuk belonging to one of the Kurdish states.

But that would be bad for Iraqi unity, says Ismail al-Hadidi, an Arab councilman and one of Kirkuk's three deputy governors. He agrees that the Kurds suffered under Saddam but believes Kirkuk should never become a Kurdish state.

Arabs prefer to retain the 18 governates that existed under Saddam. They are demanding more representation in the U.S.-installed local governing council, now consisting of 11 Kurds, six Arabs, six Turkomen and six Assyrians.

Saleh, the Arab leader, this week handed American authorities a list of seven Arab names he wants included in an expanded 40-member council of 13 Arabs, 11 Kurds, eight Turks and seven Assyrians. Many fear the militias will shed blood after the Americans withdraw.

"If they leave, it will be really serious in here," said Col. Burhan Taha, a Turkoman policeman. "The police force can't parallel the militias of the political parties."

5. - AFP - "People of Kirkuk should decide city's future, Kurdish leader says":

ANKARA / 14 January 2004

The future of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, the scene of ethnic rivalries and violence, should be decided by its people through a referendum or elections, a Kurdish leader told Turkish television Wednesday.

Deadly clashes have broken out among Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen in the northern oil-rich city since Kurdish factions late last year called for incorporation of the town into an autonomous Kurdish region, within a future federal Iraq.

"The people of Kirkuk should decide whether they will be part of Kurdistan or not, and if they want another solution they will decide on it," Barham Saleh, a senior member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) told the NTV new channel in remarks translated into Turkish.

The city's status could be decided by a referendum or through elections, he said. Kurdish officials said last week they had agreed to delay discussion on the issue of Kirkuk and other areas they claim until sometime in 2005 or 2006.

"Shall we fight for another 40 years over this piece of land or shall we find a formula that will satisfy us all? "If the people of Kirkuk chose Kurdistan I will be happy. But if they do not, it is not up to me as a Kurdish activist in Suleymaniyah to say that Kirkuk is part of Kurdistan," Saleh told NTV.

The Kurds want to expand their autonomous rule to include the oil-rich region of Tamim around Kirkuk and parts of ethnically mixed Nineveh and Diyala. The Kurds say these areas were overwhelmingly Kurdish in the 1950s before Baghdad started a deliberate campaign of "Arabization."

Turkey has warned the Iraqi Kurds, with whom it has tense ties, against any attempt to upset the current demography of Kirkuk, which is home to a sizeable community of Turkmen, a minority of Turkish origin.

Saleh was speaking ahead of a visit to Ankara on Friday, aimed at warming up bilateral ties. Ankara is worried that the Iraqi Kurds could capitalize on their war-time alliance with the United States to enhance their self-rule in northern Iraq and set an example for their restive cousins in neighboring Turkey. Turkish leaders have warned against moves to build post-war Iraq's administrative system along ethnic lines. Saleh urged Ankara and other neighboring countries not to meddle in Iraqi affairs.

"We know that Turkey and other neighbors are concerned over the territorial integrity of Iraq... But we have shown our commitment to a united sovereign Iraq. Our neighbors should respect the Iraqis' freedom to determine their own future," he said. He also sought to dispell Turkish suspicions that Iraqi Kurds are plotting to break away from Baghdad.

6. - EurasiaNet - "Turkey Seeks to Carve Out Conflict Resoltion Role in the Caucasus":

14 January 2004 / by Mevlut Katik*

Turkish officials view the recent leadership turnover in both Azerbaijan and Georgia as a diplomatic opportunity to promote stabilization in the strife-prone Caucasus. In particular, Ankara wants to act as a conflict mediator, with the aim of smoothing the way for pipeline construction in the region.

Many political analysts believe the Turkish initiative stands little chance of success. They point to Armenia’s antagonistic relationship with both Turkey and Azerbaijan as a major stumbling block. There have been few signs in recent months, they add, that the historic enemies are prepared to set aside feelings of mutual hostility in order to promote stabilization measures, such as a lasting political settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey opened its diplomatic campaign in early January, when Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul paid his first official visit to Baku since Ilham Aliyev’s election as Azerbaijani president last fall. Azerbaijan, which has strong cultural links to Turkey, is Ankara’s staunchest ally in the Caucasus. While Gul’s talks with Azerbaijani officials spanned a wide variety of economic and political issues, the topic of regional security clearly dominated the meetings.

Gul mentioned repeatedly that Turkey sought to increase its role in the Karabakh peace process. Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently stalemated. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "We are working on producing solutions [to the Karabakh issue] by bringing together the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Turkish foreign ministers," Gul said at a joint news conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Vilayat Quliyev. Gul went on to say that a "trilateral meeting" would be convened at an unspecified future date.

Turkish and Azerbaijani officials also discussed Baku’s potential membership in NATO. Turkey is scheduled to host the upcoming NATO summit in June.

Turkey’s recent conflict-settlement efforts are reportedly not limited to Azerbaijan. According to a January 10 report in the Turkish daily Hurriyet, Ankara is also trying to position itself as a go-between in Georgia, seeking to ease tension between the new government in Tbilisi and the autonomy-minded region of Ajaria.

Ankara’s eagerness to improve the security climate in the Caucasus is clearly driven by a desire to keep the construction timetable for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline on track. In Baku, Gul and Quliyev both expressed hope that pipeline construction would be completed in 2005, as planned. "The Caucasus retains its strategic importance as an East-West energy and transportation corridor, and as a door for Turkey to Central Asia," Gul stated during a speech at Baku State University.

Upheaval in Georgia in late 2003 -- namely the rigged November election that sparked popular protests, culminating in former president Eduard Shevardnadze’s resignation – initially raised concerns about potential BTC construction delays. Those concerns have eased in recent weeks, especially after the January 4 special presidential election, won by Mikheil Saakashvili, passed without prompting fresh unrest.

Saakashvili has repeatedly stated that his administration will be committed to the BTC project and will seek to foster closer ties with Turkey. "The important thing is to increase our economic cooperation," Turkey’s NTV television channel quoted Saakashvili as saying January 9. "We [in Georgia] are planning significant tax rebates for small and medium-sized businesses. In this way, Turkish capital will be able to come here and enter new fields of business."

While bilateral Turkish-Georgian relations may be poised for a breakthrough, prospects for significant improvement in the Caucasus’ overall security climate appear uncertain. For all the talk about wanting to foster a Karabakh settlement, Gul gave no indication that Ankara would make a policy shift that could facilitate peace talks.

At present, Turkey’s ability to promote the Karabakh peace process would seem limited, given that Ankara does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Armenia. Gul stressed that back-channels of bilateral communication have opened in recent years. Yet, Turkish-Armenian relations remain strained over the highly contentious Armenian Genocide debate, as Ankara steadfastly refuses to recognize that the mass deaths of Armenians in eastern Turkey during World War I were the result of well-coordinated Turkish government action.

Some Azerbaijani observers have speculated that Turkey’s desire to gain admission to the European Union could put pressure on Turkish officials to normalize relations with Armenia. However, Gul ruled out the possibility of Ankara making a good-will gesture in the near future, such as opening Turkey’s border with Armenia. Indeed, he stated in Baku that the border’s reopening would be conditional on the negotiation of a lasting political settlement for Karabakh.

Turkey’s room for maneuver is limited to a certain extent by Ankara’s desire not to upset the special relationship with Azerbaijan. Turkey has provided firm support for Azerbaijan’s negotiating position; that Karabakh be granted broad autonomous authority while remaining part of Azerbaijan. Recent statements by Azerbaijani officials indicate that Baku is skittish about any potential Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. "If Turkey makes even a minor move towards Armenia, it may harm both Azerbaijan’s and its [Turkey’s] own national interests," Quliyev, the Azerbaijani foreign minister, told ANS TV in Baku on January 10.

Quliyev himself has given no indication of late that the Azerbaijani government is prepared to engage Armenia. During the ANS interview, for example, he complained that "Armenia is constantly keeping the fictitious genocide issue on the agenda." Such comments are sure to antagonize Yerevan.

Following his talks in Azerbaijan, Gul traveled to Iran, where his discussions also concentrated on security. The Turkish foreign minister pressed for an Iranian commitment to contain possible Kurdish radical activity on Iranian soil, especially that carried out by the PKK. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Iranian leaders, however, reportedly made no promise that they would expand cooperation with Ankara on Kurdish issues.

"Gul did not get the answer he expected from Iran following his demand that Tehran declare the PKK a terrorist organization," said a commentary published January 11 by the Turkish newspaper Daily Milliyet.

*Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.