20
February 2004
2. "One last push for peace", After a breakthrough at the United Nations, fresh peace talks on the divided island of Cyprus have begun, and will be followed by a referendum.
3. "Iraqi Kurds fear betrayal, demand vote on future", Kurdish "intellectuals" push for referendum in northern Iraq on independence.
4. "CDU stand on Turkey criticized", Opposition to EU membership for country decried by government, Turkish community here.
5. "Turkish court issues arrest warrant for party leader Uzan", A Turkish court Friday issued an arrest warrant for nationalist party leader Cem Uzan for failing to appear in court to answer charges of insulting the prime minister.
6. "Turkey’s Uphill Battle", There are optimistic signs that, at long last, Turkey's goal of opening accession talks with the European Union are about to be realized.
Dear reader,
Due to the usual enormous carnival festivities in Cologne at this time of the year our office will remain closed on Monday 23th, 2004. Our next bulletin will be published on Tuesday. We regret any inconvenience this may cause.
The staff
1. - Frankfurter Allgemeine (Germany) - "Vague partnership offers":
Opinion / By Günther Nonnenmacher / 20 February 2004
First the opposition leadership and then a visit from the chancellor
- Turkey cannot complain it is not getting enough attention from German
politicians. Clearly, political relations with Turkey are no longer
the reserve of foreign policy in Germany, but have long become a domestic
issue, as well, because of the 2 million Turks living in this country.
With regard to Turkey's aspirations for membership in the European
Union, the opposition Christian Democratic Union has remained vague
with its offer of a “privileged partnership,“ a formula
that represents neither approval nor rejection and has the diplomatic
advantage that it offers plenty of scope for interpretation. But the
concept also harbors a decisive weakness, in that Turkey will only
find a “privileged partnership“ with the European Union
desirable if it is told unequivocally that full membership is not
an option. Yet since it has gotten closer to its goal than ever, it
will reject anything that falls short of full membership, no matter
how “privileged,“ as a consolation prize.
The visit of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who promotes EU membership
for Turkey, will confirm Ankara in this attitude. The German position
is based on the conviction that Germany should help the “moderate“
Islamists to prevent the radicals from gaining the upper hand.
But the assumption that EU membership is the essential factor in deciding
whether Turkey is able to solve its problems is just as lacking in
historical perspective, and hence pseudo-political, as the belief
of some American do-gooders that a Western democracy can spring up
in Iraq just because Saddam Hussein is gone.
Only one thing is certain: Turkish membership would imply a fundamental
change in the nature of the European Union and require a radical revision
of its approaches and thinking.
Schröder may be indifferent to this, and his foreign minister,
Joschka Fischer, may believe in a rescue through “avant-gardes,“
but both are trifling with an issue that will determine the future
of Europe.
2. - The Economist - "One last push for peace":
February 19, 2004
After a breakthrough at the United Nations, fresh peace talks on the divided island of Cyprus have begun, and will be followed by a referendum. If all goes well, the whole island will join the European Union on May 1st—also boosting Turkey’s chances of joining eventually
EVER since Turkish troops invaded the north of Cyprus 30 years ago, leading to its division into Greek and Turkish zones, repeated rounds of internationally backed talks have failed to reunite the Mediterranean island. The United Nations maintains a 1,200-strong peacekeeping force along the “Green Line” boundary between the two sectors. Turkey, the only country that recognises the northern, Turkish sector as an independent state, keeps about 30,000 troops there. Greece has about 12,000 troops on the other side. As recently as last March, the two sides came close to agreement, only for the talks to collapse. But now, following a breakthrough at the UN late last week, a fresh round of talks opened on Thursday February 19th, in the UN buffer zone that runs through the divided capital, Nicosia. Their chances seem better than the last attempt to reach a lasting peace.
Last Friday, after three days of tough talks at the UN’s headquarters in New York, its secretary-general, Kofi Annan, announced that Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders had accepted his proposals for rapid negotiations on a peace deal that will then be put to a referendum of all Cypriots on April 21st—just ten days before the Greek part of Cyprus (with or without the Turkish part) will join the European Union. The talks will be based on the UN’s existing plan to stitch Cyprus back together as a loose federation, in which the Greek and Turkish sectors largely run their own affairs but a power-sharing central government runs the island’s foreign relations.
Under the deal agreed on Friday, if the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders cannot agree by March 22nd, the governments of Greece and Turkey will be brought in for a week of intensive talks. If there is still no final text of an agreement by the 29th, Mr Annan will fill in the blanks and the referendum will go ahead anyway. If the last-ditch attempt to forge a settlement fails, the Turkish Cypriot sector’s isolation will only increase, and Turkey’s own hopes of joining the EU may be set back by years.
When Cyprus gained independence from Britain in 1960, its constitution guaranteed power-sharing between the ethnic Greek majority and Turkish minority. But these arrangements broke down in the 1960s and the Greek Cypriots were left in control of most of the island, leading to years of inter-communal violence. In 1974, Greece’s then military dictatorship backed a coup on the island, staged by militants who wanted to make Cyprus a part of Greece. This prompted Turkey’s invasion of northern Cyprus. Many thousands of people were forced to leave their homes and the island was left divided, with the Turkish side holding 37% of its land, even though Turkish Cypriots were only 18% of the population before the conflict. The UN’s plan envisages returning several chunks of land to the Greek Cypriot sector (see map) but the two sides have been unable to reach agreement on the details. Among the other important issues that remain to be resolved are: how many Greek Cypriots will be allowed to return to live in the north; and how many Turkish and Greek troops will be allowed to remain on the island.
One of the main reasons that the talks collapsed last March was that Turkey’s government failed to put enough pressure on Rauf Denktash, the notoriously stubborn Turkish Cypriot leader. His people, much poorer than their ethnic Greek counterparts, have become increasingly frustrated at their isolation and at Mr Denktash. A few weeks before the talks, he faced a huge protest, with demonstrators carrying placards saying “Yes to peace, Yes to the EU”. But Mr Denktash rejected the UN’s proposals, arguing that a land transfer on the scale envisaged would lead to a refugee crisis among Turkish Cypriots.
An election on the Turkish Cypriot side, in December, ended more or less in a dead heat between supporters and opponents of unification. A coalition government was formed, led jointly by Mr Denktash’s son and a pro-unification leader. In January, the new government regained the initiative by calling for fresh talks, in which the UN plan would be a “reference point”.
A change in stance by Turkey seems to have played an important role in the revival of the talks. Its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is said to have put firm pressure on the various Turkish Cypriot leaders to form a coalition and return to the negotiating table. Mr Erdogan is also thought to have persuaded the Turkish armed forces—which have clung to northern Cyprus as a military asset—to accept an eventual deal. Other international powers have also been leaning hard on both Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders: diplomats said America’s secretary of state, Colin Powell, and his British counterpart, Jack Straw, had intervened personally during last week’s talks at the UN.
Even now, though, successful talks, followed by a successful outcome in the referendum, are not guaranteed. If all goes well, and the Turkish sector of Cyprus joins the EU along with the Greek part in May, this will boost Turkey’s own hopes of starting EU membership negotiations by early next year. “After we have done everything and solved the Cyprus problem, nobody can say no to starting the talks,” the Turkish foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, said at the weekend.
The EU’s leaders will hold a summit in December to review Turkey’s
candidacy. But there are some in the EU—such as Germany’s
opposition Christian Democrats—who argue that Turkey is too big
and too Muslim to be given full membership. However, the EU already
has millions of Muslim citizens; and the entry of hundreds of thousands
of Turkish Cypriots would make such arguments look increasingly unconvincing.
Turkey will be more likely to continue pursuing its democratic and
economic reforms, and to contain Islamic militancy, if its aspirations
to join the EU are met. So a lot more than the future of Cyprus is
hanging on the talks that the island’s leaders have commenced.
3. - Reuters - "Iraqi Kurds fear betrayal, demand vote on future":
Kurdish "intellectuals" push for referendum in northern Iraq on independence.
Geneva / 20 February 2004
Iraqi Kurd intellectuals, voicing fear of betrayal by the United States and Britain, said on Wednesday they wanted a referendum on whether their region should be independent or part of a federal Iraq.
The intellectuals, who have formed a committee to campaign for a vote among Kurds in Iraq and abroad, told reporters they would be presenting their case to big power envoys in Geneva and senior United Nations officials.
"There is a general mood of fear and betrayal among the Kurdish people and that is pushing them towards having a referendum to decide their future themselves," committee member and university professor Salah Jmor told a news briefing.
He said some two million signatures in favour of a referendum had been collected in northern Iraq.
"We are gathering more all the time," he added.
Jmor said the committee was independent and represented ordinary Iraqi Kurds. But Geneva diplomats who follow events in Iraq said it seemed unlikely it was formed without approval of the two ruling parties northern Iraq.
Turkey, Syria and Iran, which all have Kurdish populations of their own, have reacted with alarm to the idea of an independent Kurdish entity in neighbouring northern Iraq.
Jmor said there were signs the United States and Britain, who invaded Iraq in March last year, were preparing to go back on pre-war commitments to maintaining strong Kurdish autonomy in the mountainous north of the country.
"The Kurds have been betrayed before by big powers and governments in Baghdad, and they do not intend to let it happen again," said artist Saleh Bakhtiar. "We want this referendum to show the world exactly where we stand."
First World War allies France and Britain had envisioned an independent Kurdish state after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but the land was divided between Turkey, Iraq and Syria.
After 1991 Gulf War, northern Iraq broke away from Baghdad rule under U.S. and British protection and the Kurds set up a regional administration which backed the allied invasion that overthrew President Saddam Hussein.
But the latest plans for a federal system in Iraq put forward by the U.S-controlled Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Baghdad, Jmor said, offered Kurds less than they had had under the Iraqi constitution of 1958.
The Kurdistan Regional Government's envoy in Geneva, Dindar Zibari, told the news briefing it would prefer to remain part of of Iraq under a federal system as long as it gave Kurds control over their future and their historical territory.
But he said the regional authority was waiting for a decision from
the CPA-appointed Iraqi Governing Council at the end of February on
the future status of the Kurds before voicing any further position
on the issue.
4. - Frankfurter Allgemeine (Germany) - "CDU stand on Turkey criticized":
Opposition to EU membership for country decried by government, Turkish community here
By Michael Gavin / 20 February 2004
The German government and representatives of the country's large
Turkish community have reacted with disappointment and anger to the
Christian Democratic Union's decision to oppose European Union membership
for Turkey.
Clearly implying that Turkey was not ready to become a full member,
the CDU leader, Angela Merkel, instead proposed “a special relationship“
between the country and the EU during her visit to Ankara on Monday.
The offer, which Merkel said would involve a customs union, military
integration and cooperation in social policies and other areas, was
flatly rejected by her hosts.
Merkel's announcement was not a surprise, but its uncategorical nature
was still a disappointment for Turkey. The majority-Muslim country
has been trying for EU membership since the early 1960's, and its
leaders have recently underlined their demands with a certain “now
or never“ tone as the EU's member countries move toward a deadline
late this year on whether to invite the Turks into membership negotiations.
Turkey's more assertive stance has found resonance among the Turkish
public and the estimated 2.5 million Turks living in Germany. The
United States has also been urging EU countries to accept Turkey in
order to encourage more democracy and pro-Western sentiment in the
Muslim world.
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who flies to Turkey this weekend,
is expected to signal the German government's support for Turkey's
bid - even if he has already made it clear that a long preparation
and transitional period would be required.
Still, his governing Social Democrats have been careful to leave the
door open, leading their parliamentary leader and acting chairman,
Franz Müntefering, to declare that Merkel was guilty of “a
fundamental failure“ by antagonizing an important ally.
“Her unprofessional foreign policy is dangerous for our country
and for the development of Europe,“ he said.
Merkel, under pressure to stop Turkey's march toward Europe from within
her conservative party, defended her policy as “realistic“
and fairer to Turkey than raising hopes that will only be dashed.
The CDU is not in a position to thwart Turkey's membership bid now,
but could be after the 2006 election.
Matthias Wissmann, a CDU member of parliament, warned the other parties
against “unnecessarily emotionalizing this sensitive subject“
ahead of this year's European Parliament election, but representatives
of Germany's Turkish community said it was the CDU that was playing
with populist fire.
Merkel had “irritated and insulted“ Turks by declaring their
country “so stupid or incompetent“ as to be incapable of
EU membership, said Hakki Keskin, the chairman of the Federation of
Turkish Communities in Germany.
The offer of a “special relationship“ is “laughable,“
he said. “This discrimination is shocking.“
Added Esref Unsal, the chairman of the Association of Turkish Entrepreneurs
and Industrial Companies in Germany: “It's not fair that Turkey
is being asked to wait outside the door again.“
Even within the CDU, Merkel's announcement was not unchallenged. The
chairman of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, former
Defense Minister Volker Rühe, joined with a former CDU general
secretary, Ruprecht Polenz, in calling for “Turkey to be given
a fair chance at full membership.“
They cited 40 years of efforts by the country to “join Europe,“
notably its recent democratic reforms and improved human rights guarantees.
5. - AFP - "Turkish court issues arrest warrant for party leader Uzan":
ANKARA / 20 February 2004
A Turkish court Friday issued an arrest warrant for nationalist party
leader Cem Uzan for failing to appear in court to answer charges of
insulting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Anatolia news agency
reported.
No further details were immediately available.
The court case in Bursa is related to a speech Cem Uzan, who heads
the Youth Party, made in the city last summer in which he called Erdogan
"treacherous" and an "infidel."
His remarks followed a government decision to cancel the operational
licences and reclaim control of two power utilities owned by his family.
The Uzans' business empire has recently crumbled in the face of accusations
of large-scale fraud.
A Youth Party spokesman said Uzan decided to go to Bursa to testify
at the court immediately after learning about the arrest warrant.
"He will testify in the afternoon and then we expect the court
to lift the arrest warrant," Levent Seymen told AFP.
6. - National Review - "Turkey’s Uphill Battle":
An elusive European goal.
By Nikolas K. Gvosdev / February 19, 2004
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is a senior fellow for strategic studies at the Nixon Center.
There are optimistic signs that, at long last, Turkey's goal of opening accession talks with the European Union are about to be realized. Visiting Turkey last month, European Commission President Romano Prodi noted that "impressive progress has been achieved, and the country is now closer to the Union." Several days ago, Polish Foreign Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, in talks with his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul, observed that Turkey has taken "very important steps to meet the Copenhagen criteria." (These criteria state that any potential applicant to the EU must be a full democracy, have a strong market economy, and harmonize domestic legislation with EU regulations.)
Negotiations to reunite the divided island of Cyprus have restarted under United Nations auspices. Should a settlement be reached prior to May 1, 2004 — when the internationally recognized government and the territory it controls enter the EU — a major stumbling block to Turkey's own candidacy (since Turkey supports the Turkish Cypriot entity in northern Cyprus) will be removed.
Certainly, an argument can be advanced that Turkey's geostrategic position makes up for some of the defects in its domestic political and economic situation. A case can also be made that Turkey's reform process would be immeasurably strengthened by giving Turkey a firm date for beginning accession negotiations. This would certainly validate some of the hard decisions taken by the Erdogan government. And there are some indications that this line of reasoning is being carefully considered by European governments. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, during his visit to Ankara last month, declared, "We stand by Turkey since it has achieved considerable progress in its [progress toward] EU membership."
Yet despite all of the positive news, there are still barriers in the road. There is a growing sense in some European circles that Turkey, despite its ambitious reform program, will not be able to meet the Copenhagen criteria by the December 2004 EU summit.
And some international indicators lend credence to those assessments. In its 2003-04 survey, Freedom House assigned Turkey a ranking of 3 for political rights and 4 for civil liberties — meaning that the country, although considered to be an electoral democracy, is only "partly free." (By Freedom House reckoning, a "partly free" state is one where the population enjoys some basic political rights and liberties, but where the protection of those freedoms is threatened by rampant corruption, a weak rule of law, civil strife, or limited political pluralism. Russia and Morocco, for example, are also classified as "partly free" states by the survey.)
Turkey is the only NATO ally to be ranked "partly free." More significantly, all of the probable EU candidate countries in the Balkans — including Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, and Croatia — are considered to be "free" countries (where the rule of law prevails, basic human rights are protected, and there is free political competition).
Turkey has made impressive strides, to be sure, and ranks in the upper echelons of the "partly free" category (as opposed to Russia), and if current trends continue, Turkey will eventually be ranked fully "free" by the Freedom House criteria. But this may not occur by the December 2004 deadline.
The results of a survey of over 1,400 leading European business executives taken last fall also cannot be welcome news in Ankara. Fifty-seven percent believed that the EU should not expand after the May 2004 enlargement. Of those favoring the admission of new members, a slight plurality preferred extending an invitation to Russia — which has no immediate pans to join — over Turkey.
And European enthusiasm for Turkish membership may begin to flag if U.S. policymakers continue to intimate that Turkey might act as an American "Trojan horse" within the EU — perhaps even to forestall the development of an independent European foreign and defense policy or to financially weaken the Union. This certainly does not encourage European states to cut Turkey any slack in assessing its compliance with the Copenhagen criteria. And if, by objective standards of assessment, Turkey has not met the criteria by December 2004, the EU is within its rights not to offer a date to start negotiations. And this would have nothing to do with an "anti-Islamic" or "anti-Turkish" bias on the part of current EU member states.
Some European political forces have begun to call for an open and frank dialogue with Turkey, to prepare for the possibility that a date for opening accession talks may not be forthcoming. Angela Merkel, leader of the German Christian Democrats, has called for a "third way" between accession and refusal. In January the CDU released its proposal for a "Privileged Partnership" as an alternative. This would offer Turkey a "comprehensive free-trade area" with Europe, and closer integration in joint military and security efforts, but would fall short of full EU membership for the time being.
The 1999 Helsinki EU summit proclaimed that Turkey was "destined
to join the Union." But destinies and deadlines don't always
coincide.