Untitled Document

11 February 2004

1. "Kurds show their grit", the Kurds understand why suicide bombers attacked their political leaders in Irbil, Iraq on Sunday.

2. "Iraqi Kurd tries to reassure Turkey over rebels", a senior Iraqi Kurdish official tried to reassure Turkey on Tuesday that a more autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq would not tolerate separatist Turkish Kurdish fighters operating on its soil.

3. "Rifts Increase Iraqis' Fear for the Future", Dr. Mahmoud Othman, a Kurd and a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, said Kurdish politicians might be able to reduce tensions by putting off the question of Kirkuk and by encouraging Kurds to recover homes peacefully through the courts.

4. "Gul outlines three new reforms for EU", Controversial DGMs will be restructured as specialized courts and military members will be removed from the Higher Education Board and media watchdog RTUK

5. "Individual Rights for Application to the Constitutional Court are on the Way", the restructuring of the Supreme Court that caused a debate between the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Constitutional Court will lessen Turkey’s criminal records in Europe.

6. "No question of Denktas, withdrawing from Cyprus talks", Turkey has given President Denktas, a road map for the New York talks, Erdogan said.

7. "Barriers Slowly Eroding for Cyprus", Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met at the United Nations in New York Tuesday to negotiate an end to the division of this Mediterranean island, but for some Greek and Turkish Cypriots, the barriers are already down.

8. "Water, a new strategic challenge", after the century of "black gold", which still dominates the world economy, we are entering the century of "blue gold", in which the supply of water will be the determining factor in any new development.

1. - The Los Angeles Times - "Kurds show their grit":

11 February 2004 / by Peter W. Galbraith*

The Kurds understand why suicide bombers attacked their political leaders in Irbil, Iraq on Sunday. The attacks had all the hallmarks of an operation by extremists - nearly simultaneous detonations at two different locations, use of sophisticated explosives hidden in specially designed jackets and an utter indifference to the collateral damage. In addition to seven senior officials of the Kurdistan Regional Government, the toll included 100 ordinary citizens of Irbil.

Visiting the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK, headquarters a day later, I found it hard to imagine how such a small quantity of explosives could do so much damage. The ground was scorched black. The exterior wall 25 feet from the blast centre had collapsed and all the furniture had been blown to one end of the room.

It was an awful, jarring tragedy. But even though the Kurdistan Regional Government has been America's closest ally in Iraq, and even though the Kurdish military - the peshmerga - fought closely with US special forces in last year's war, almost no one in Kurdistan blames the United States for what happened on Sunday.

That's because they know they were attacked for what they have become during 12 years of self-rule, for the fact that they are virtually independent from the rest of Iraq.

Kurdistan was hit because it is secular, pluralistic, increasingly democratic and successful. As such, it is the major obstacle to a terrorist strategy that depends on chaos for success.

The two main Kurdish parties, one-time rivals that fought a nasty civil war in the 1990s, have come together, moving to unify competing Kurdistan governments, one based in Irbil and the other further south in Sulaymaniya.

But in the long run, Iraq's fragile unity may be the attack's main victim, in spite of brave words from Kurdish leaders to the contrary. Though the leaders have long understood that full independence is not a realistic option at this time, there is a grass-roots movement that disagrees.

Since the US takeover of Iraq, a new Kurdish movement towards referendum on the issue has gathered two million signatures, more than 50 per cent of Iraq's adult Kurds. The movement is widely seen as a proxy campaign for independence.

The bombings are likely to intensify Kurdish views that Kurds should have little to do with the chaotic south. They do not understand why the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority, CPA, wants to replace their institutions with Iraqi ones.

Certainly, Kurds negotiating Iraq's provisional constitution will now be even more insistent that the Kurdistan Regional Government continue to handle security in the region. The Kurds were already resisting American efforts to introduce a reformed Iraqi army and intelligence service into Kurdistan.

Despite the obvious lapses that allowed the bombers near so many senior leaders, the Kurds have confidence in their own peshmerga and intelligence services. And even after Sunday's massacre, Kurdistan remains relatively peaceful. Home to one-sixth of Iraq's population, just 200 coalition troops are stationed here.

In these circumstances, the Kurds say, the plan to replace their governing institutions is not a formula to bring democracy to Iraq, but rather to bring chaos to Kurdistan. Fortunately, the Kurds have no intention of complying with American proposals.

It is neither just nor realistic to turn back the clock in Kurdistan. Allowing the Kurds to retain their autonomous governmental arrangements probably provides the best hope for a stable Iraq.

While the US actively seeks to diminish Kurdistan's successful government, it does nothing about the other issue of great concern to the Kurds: the status of Kirkuk.

Kirkuk is possibly the most explosive issue in Iraq today. One hour from Irbil, it sits atop Iraq's largest producing oil reservoir. Home to Kurds, Turkmens and Arabs, Kirkuk is claimed by all three.

Beginning in the 1950s and accelerating in the last 20 years, successive Iraqi regimes tried to change Kirkuk's ethnicity by expelling Kurds (and some Turkmens) and settling Arabs in their place. In 1974, differences between Kurds and Arabs over Kirkuk led to a war that ended a previous attempt to give Kurdistan autonomy.

Today, Turkey's self-professed role as the protector of the Turkmens (and as opponents of Kurdish self-rule) provides additional volatility. No foreigner can fully sort out claims that go back centuries. But there should be a process to determine Kirkuk's future. The Kurds, who now dominate the province politically, have offered to suspend their own claims in exchange for such a process.

The handling of Kirkuk is part of a pattern by which the Bush administration is deferring Iraq's most volatile issues until after the US elections in November. But as with the decision not to hold Iraqi elections until 2005, the failure to act on Kirkuk may backfire.

Any spark could ignite the Kirkuk tinderbox. Ideally the people of Kirkuk should decide their status in a referendum that offers both the possibility of joining Kurdistan and options for special autonomy and power-sharing within the province. But, before any vote can take place, evicted Kurds should able to return to their homes, and Arab settlers should be offered financial incentives to leave.

More than a year ago, Pentagon planners endorsed my suggestion for a special commission to sort out property issues. By speedily establishing a system to rectify wrongs, I hoped to ease tensions. Alas, the commission has yet to meet.

For all the suffering they inflicted, the terrorists failed completely in Irbil to destabilise Kurdistan. But by failing to address the status of Kirkuk promptly, the Bush administration may make the problem insoluble. And it leaves a vulnerability that terrorists or insurgents can exploit.

* Galbraith was US ambassador to Croatia from 1993 to 1998. As a senior adviser to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1988 he helped uncover and document Saddam Hussain's campaign against the Kurds.

2. - Reuters - "Iraqi Kurd tries to reassure Turkey over rebels":

ANKARA / 10 February 2004

A senior Iraqi Kurdish official tried to reassure Turkey on Tuesday that a more autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq would not tolerate separatist Turkish Kurdish fighters operating on its soil. Ankara is deeply uneasy about the Iraqi Kurds' push for greater autonomy from Baghdad, fearing this will re-ignite secessionist ambitions among its own Kurds in southeastern Turkey.

"We are ready to work to remove all kinds of elements which pose a threat to our neighbours," Barham Salih, prime minister of one half of Iraq's mainly Kurdish northern zone, told NTV television during a trip to Ankara. Salih was referring to Turkish Kurdish guerrillas holed up in the mountains of northern Iraq whom Ankara blames for the death of more than 30,000 people during their separatist campaign in the 1980s and 1990s which has now largely subsided.

Turkey has urged its NATO ally the United States to order its forces in Iraq to crack down more on the rebels.

Ankara's suspicions deepened recently after another Iraqi Kurdish leader, Nechirvan Barzani, called for the withdrawal of Turkish peacekeeping troops from Iraq.

Turkey sent several hundred troops to northern Iraq to monitor a ceasefire in a mid-1990s civil war between the two main Iraqi Kurdish factions. The two groups have now pledged to unite to protect Kurdish self-rule in a future federal Iraq.

Asked about Barzani's call, Salih said there could be no question of force being used to expel the Turkish troops.

"Friendly talks can be conducted with the United States, Britain and Turkey. A soluton can be found. The peacekeeping mission is completed," Salih told NTV. He said Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari, a Kurd, would attend next weekend's regional security talks in Kuwait. The talks, focusing on Iraq-related issues, will also group Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria.

3. - The New York Times - "Rifts Increase Iraqis' Fear for the Future":

BAGHDAD / 10 February 2004 / by Neela Banerjee

The closer Iraqis get to sovereignty, the more they voice fears that ethnic and religious differences could fracture their nation.

Generations of colonialism followed by Saddam Hussein's rule drove fissures through Iraqi society that are now widening as politicians and clerics appeal to religion and ethnicity in advancing their demands. In the angry clamoring of Shiite and Sunni Muslims, and of Arabs, Turkmens and Kurds in the north, many Iraqis, foreign diplomats and allied military officers say they discern the first smoke of broad communal strife.

"Wherever we see a spark, we have to dampen it quickly," said a senior allied military official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Neither the allied official, nor the Iraqi clerics, tribal sheiks, politicians, foreign diplomats and ordinary people interviewed over two weeks said civil clashes were imminent. But they said the potential was there, as politicians and allied forces try to forge one country out of ethnic and religious groups with conflicting grievances.

One flash point is the demand now being heard from the Shiite majority for swift elections. Sunnis, who provided the power base for Mr. Hussein, now worry that the discrimination they practiced against Shiites could be turned against them.

In the central town of Ramadi, Sheik Majid al-Dulaimi, a Sunni, summed up the feared outcome of elections: "Destruction — political, economic, social — even civil war."

Deadly riots between Arabs, Turkmens and Kurds have already shaken Kirkuk, the oil city in the north, as the groups battle for property and primacy.

The unease is amplified by the widespread belief that neighboring countries want to destabilize Iraq, with Iranian groups supporting the Shiites, for example, and Saudis buoying Sunni militants. That was underscored this week when American officials here confirmed that they had obtained a document asking Al Qaeda's leaders for help in waging "sectarian war" in Iraq.

Iraqis and foreign diplomats say the Americans have not proved themselves able to calm the tensions and contend that it will take a home-grown force to prevent a dangerous splintering.

"The new thing in Iraq is that we must take the initiative," said Aku Sada al-Khalidi, 34, from a Shiite family in Kerbala. "And now people are speaking out, which is beautiful and frightening at the same time."

"We used to blame Saddam for everything," he said, adding that "now, it is our responsibility" to prevent the nation from breaking up on ethnic or sectarian lines.

After a generation of oppression, each major group — Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds — claims to have suffered more than others, and each doubts others will treat them fairly after the Americans hand over power.

Iraqis and foreign experts said some clashes were likely, particularly given that militias hold sway across much of Iraq, and that there are ample arsenals available to various groups.

If serious trouble erupts after the transfer of power, it is not yet clear to what degree the American military could intervene, although a senior official with the Coalition Provisional Authority said the continuing presence of American troops could provide a strong deterrent. The future American role is being negotiated by the occupying authorities and the Iraqi Governing Council.

Iraqis and the military worry most about the rift between Sunnis and Shiites over the latter's call for elections. The most revered Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has asked the United Nations to determine their feasibility, and an assessment team has just arrived.

Ayatollah Sistani has indicated that if the United Nations recommends against elections before the June 30 deadline for the transfer of power, he will consider alternatives to achieve a representative government. He opposes the caucus system favored by the Americans.

"The Shia are willing to wait a certain amount of time to get one person, one vote, because then, who is the majority?" said Maj. George Sarabia, the second in command with the Second Squadron of the Second Armored Cavalry, which is responsible for Sadr City, a poor Shiite quarter of Baghdad.

Greater apprehension is felt among the Sunnis. In Baquba, Shiites and Sunnis visit each other's mosques and intermarry. Yet a prosperous Sunni, Ahmed Taha al-Jibouri, could barely handle his anxiety as he sat in his living room on a recent day. His father is the provincial sheik of the Jibouri tribe, a mostly Sunni clan that sprawls all over Iraq.

Mr. Taha firmly opposes elections too soon, maintaining that they would favor the majority Shiites. "Let the elections occur, and if they bring a government we don't like, we will have demonstrations to get rid of it," he said. "And if that's not enough, we'll take it with weapons."

The tension between Shiites and Sunnis, whose privileges are now threatened, was foreseen a decade ago by Kanan Makiya, a returned Iraqi exile, in his book "Cruelty and Silence."

"Overnight, your world has come crashing down, and you don't quite know what that means," said Mr. Makiya, who now heads the Memory Foundation here, which plans to document human rights abuses under Mr. Hussein's Baath Party rule.

In Ramadi and Falluja, Sunni farming towns west of Baghdad where insurgents regularly attack American soldiers, the air crackles with fury. Security is inadequate for elections, residents say, an argument that others elsewhere have also made. Sunnis charge that countless numbers of people are coming in from Iran with fake documents to vote for the Shiites. The Shiite leadership is not truly Iraqi, but Iranian, and therefore illegitimate, they say.

So far, Shiites and Sunnis have not openly clashed. Still, said Mr. Makiya, Shiite leaders could do more to damp Sunni fears by appointing Sunnis to high-level posts and meeting with their leaders. "Only the Shia can assuage the fears of the Sunni," he said. "If they don't, then Iraq could fall into civil war."

Already, communal violence has broken out in the north. The Kurds who dominate that area are pressing for a large autonomous province that would include the choice city of Kirkuk. But Turkmens and Arabs in the region resist the idea. Each group has its own historical claims. Many Kurds who were driven away years ago under Mr. Hussein have returned to reclaim their old homes, now inhabited mainly by Arabs.

Dr. Mahmoud Othman, a Kurd and a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, said Kurdish politicians might be able to reduce tensions by putting off the question of Kirkuk and by encouraging Kurds to recover homes peacefully through the courts.

But Dr. Othman and others blamed other countries for deepening sectarian and ethnic rifts. Groups inside Turkey support the Turkmens, he said, underscoring the Turkish government's fear that a Kurdish province in northern Iraq could act as a magnet for its own large Kurdish population. In addition, he said, Syrians, Saudis and Iranians each want to see the American experiment in Iraq fail. "If there were no outside influence," Dr. Othman said, "Iraqis could reach solutions much more easily."

Like many Iraqis who work with the American-led alliance, he said the occupying powers had not done a good job of mediating among Iraq's various groups.

The senior Provisional Authority official says he and his staff meet regularly with Iraqis. He said that while he had heard fears of civil strife, he thought that improvements in the economy, the presence of American troops and the gradual strengthening of civil society would prevent violence.

"However we see the future evolve, there will be some shepherding," he said, "and the international community is not going to sit idly by if those danger signals persist."

Iraqis themselves may offer the best hope to defusing the tensions.

In Baghdad, former political prisoners and their families stream into a mansion that was once owned by an adviser to Mr. Hussein and now is the headquarters of a human rights group. A clearinghouse for information about Iraqis who disappeared under the old government, the building should be ablaze with pain. The group's leaders acknowledge that they spend a lot of time trying to talk people out of retribution.

But some gathered there understand that suffering blanketed the whole country, not just their families or towns. "We have nothing against the Sunnis," said Amina Hadi, a Shiite woman from Nasiriya in the south whose 16-year-old brother vanished into Mr. Hussein's prisons in 1991, never to be found. "It was the Baathists. They took Sunni, too, and there were Shiites who worked for Saddam."

4. - Turkish Daily News - "Gul outlines three new reforms for EU":

Controversial DGMs will be restructured as specialized courts and military members will be removed from the Higher Education Board and media watchdog RTUK

ANKARA / 11 February 2004

Turkey will take three major steps to bring Turkish laws into line with European Union standards to achieve its membership goal, by reorganizing the much controversial State Security Courts (DGMs) and removing military members from the Higher Education Board (YOK) and media watchdog RTUK, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

European Union candidate Turkey hopes to get the go-ahead to start accession talks with the bloc in a summit in December. In an effort to get a positive response, the government has sped up its efforts to fulfill remaining conditions of membership before the EU Commission starts drafting a critical progress report on Ankara's reform efforts in August.

The EU has so far criticized deficiencies in Ankara's steps to harmonize its human rights practices with EU standards.

Gul, in remarks carried by daily Dunden Bugune Tercuman newspaper, said that DGMs would be restructured as specialized courts. The courts are subject to constant EU criticisms for its codes limiting rights of the accused in the trial procedure.

A second step will consist of removing military members in the Higher Education Board. As part of the third measure, the government will take steps to make sure that military will no longer be represented in the Supreme Board of Radio and Television (RTUK), Gul was quoted as saying by Dunden Bugune Tercuman.

Gul also made it clear that the EU Commission's latest progress report, issued last November, had highlighted these issues and Turkey had made a commitment to carry out necessary reforms to remedy these deficiencies.

Asked on EU criticisms concerning insufficient implementation of the reforms passed by Parliament, Gul expressed optimism and said the EU was aware of Turkish government's sincerity on effectively implementing reforms.

"They are looking to see if the government is sincerely spending efforts and they see this determination with us," Gul said and added that the European public's attitude towards Turkish membership was also softening.

According to the foreign minister, personal ties with European leaders and enhanced dialogue between Turkey and the EU contributed to emergence of better prospects for Turkey's membership.

Gonul upbeat on membership, refutes enhanced partnership

In separate media remarks, another member of the government, Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, said he was optimistic that the EU Commission would recommend the EU leaders to start accession talks with Turkey in its upcoming report.

"I want to be optimistic on that because otherwise we, as the government party, would have difficulties in explaining this to our people," Gonul told the German Handelsblatt newspaper.

Responding to a German Christian Democratic proposal that Turkey should be given an alternative to membership, Gonul said Turkey would never accept an enhanced partnership instead of full membership.

The German Christian Democrats, opposing Turkey's membership in the EU, made the proposal during a conference of the European People's Party (EPP) which groups conservative parties from across EU countries.

Gonul said unification of Europe would never be complete without accession of Turkey.

5. - Zaman - "Individual Rights for Application to the Constitutional Court are on the Way":

ANKARA / 11 February 2004 / by Murat Aydin

The restructuring of the Supreme Court that caused a debate between the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Constitutional Court will lessen Turkey’s criminal records in Europe.

If a proposed amendment regarding the subject is adopted, people who apply to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) on the grounds of abuse will have a new path. By recognizing the individual right for application to the Constitutional Court, which is successfully practiced in Western countries, Turkey’s number of cases at the ECHR will be reduced to a minimum. Thus, people who are victims of violations like torture, will apply to the local court first. If the unjust treatment is not corrected by the lawsuit, another lawsuit may be filed at the Constitutional Court. Since internal legal routes will not be used up, there will less need for applications to the ECHR.

The Constitutional Court Chief Justice, Mustafa Bumin, has presented the amendment draft, prepared before the New Year, to the government and the main opposition party (CHP). The draft says that in addition to choosing four court members by the parliament, it is planned that individuals will have the right to apply on the issue of human rights violations. It is suggested to add a clause to the 148th article of the Constitution to the effect of: "Anyone can apply to the Constitutional Court if their constitutional rights and freedoms within the scope of the European Convention of Human Rights are violated by any state power or if the legal options are exhausted."

How the right to application, which is described as ‘Constitution complaint’ in the draft, will be used and how the lawsuit will be conducted is to be arranged in a separate law. If the Constitutional Court rejects the application or its verdict is not found sufficient then their local legal options are exhausted and the individual will apply to the ECHR.

6. - MSNBC - "No question of Denktas, withdrawing from Cyprus talks":

Turkey has given President Denktas, a road map for the New York talks, Erdogan said.

10 February 2004

It was out of the question for President Rauf Denktas, of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) to withdraw from United Nations sponsored talks over the future of the island, Turkey’s Prime Minister said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters as he was flying back from a visit to South Korea, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoan said he was optimistic as to the outcome of the talks.

“At the moment, we expect what we want to get,” he said. “If it does not happen, we do what is necessary. I believe that the solution of this has to be put forward by protecting both Turkey’s and the TRNC’s interests and the other side’s interests, too.”

Erdogan said that he believed that both Turkey and the TRNC were in agreement on the approach to the talks, aimed at reunifying the two states on the island, adding he did not expect Denktas, to adopt a different line to that agreed upon,“We have given him a road map,” the Prime Minister said. “We will see how much he keeps to it and how much he deviates from it. Denktas,’ withdrawal from talks is out of question.”

Should the TRNC president not keep to the plan for the talks, Erdoan said that Turkish Cyprus would miss the chance to join the European Union on May 1 along with the Greek Cypriot administered south.

“The TRNC will pay its price,” he said. “Think about days after May 1. What will be the income and the outcome? Those who are talking much about these issues should be asked what Turkey and TRNC will gain and lose after May 1. We have talked about all these issues.

7. - AP - "Barriers Slowly Eroding for Cyprus":

NICOSIA / 11 February 2004

Yiltan Tasci's daily cross-town commute is no ordinary one. For the past five months, the Turkish Cypriot teacher has been crossing the border that cuts across Cyprus to reach his school on the Greek Cypriot south of Nicosia, passing over the barbed wire barrier that has divided the island for 30 years.

Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met at the United Nations in New York Tuesday to negotiate an end to the division of this Mediterranean island, but for some Greek and Turkish Cypriots, the barriers are already down.

``The arrow has left the bow,'' said Tasci as he walked into his classroom in Nicosia's English School. ``We have blended in each other's lives so much that it is too late now to reverse things.''

Since Turkish Cypriot leaders eased the travel ban last April, over 2 million crossings have been recorded on this Mediterranean island of less than 1 million people. The move was widely seen as an attempt to appease Turkish Cypriots angry over the collapse of earlier reunification negotiations.

Tasci, who was 17 when the island was divided in 1974, was among those who rushed to see what the other side looked like.

``I saw that nothing had stayed the same,'' he said.

The Greek Cypriot side, which is internationally recognized, has developed much faster than the Turkish Cypriot north, a self-declared state recognized only by Turkey. It is almost five times richer than the Turkish side, which is under a de facto international embargo and is heavily subsidized by Turkey.

Nicosia's 100-year old English School has seized on the opening to re-establish its old bi-communal character.

``This school was built for both Turkish and Greek Cypriots,'' said deputy principal Chris Mavrommatis.

The school, which has about 850 students, accepted six Turkish Cypriot students this year and hopes to admit 24 next year. Tasci is its only Turkish Cypriot teacher.

``I have been taught that Greek Cypriots are monsters,'' said Deniz Kayimbasioglu, a 15-year-old Turkish Cypriot who crosses two border checkpoints every day to get to class. ``But they have been so nice to all of us since day one.''

Greek Cypriot Yiannis Philippou, 18, said he was nervous at first.

``I did not know how they were, how I should act around them. I had not seen a Turkish Cypriot before,'' Philippou said. ``But ... we have so much in common. For me, the old myth that Turkish and Greek Cypriots cannot live together has proven to be wrong.''

The youngsters have grown up unable to speak each other's language, which makes the school a handy bridge-builder because English is its medium of instruction.

Some Greek Cypriots, however, have complained that Greek Cypriots, by having to present their passports to Turkish Cypriot border guards, are being forced to recognize the island's division.

And reunification still faces huge obstacles.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has proposed a plan for uniting Cyprus before it joins the European Union on May 1. Turkish Cypriot parties that favor reunification won December's parliamentary elections, but their slim majority forced them into forming a coalition with a party that is less keen on the Annan plan.

Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, representing the Turkish Cypriot side at the U.N. for talks, fears Annan's plan will lead to domination by the larger and far wealthier Greek Cypriot side.

Cyprus was divided in 1974 after Turkish troops invaded following a short-lived coup by supporters of uniting the island with Greece, Turkey's traditional rival.

But while both governments have reservations about Annan's formula, some Greek and Turkish Cypriots are already eroding the barriers.

At the Arhondigo Tavern on the Greek side of Nicosia, 50-year-old Turkish Cypriot Hasan Pala sings in his native Turkish for an overwhelmingly Greek Cypriot audience.

``The egg has cracked,'' Pala said. ``The walls can only come down now, not go up. Tell me, can a broken egg be put together again?''

8. - The Telegraph (Nepal) - "Water, a new strategic challenge":

After the century of "black gold", which still dominates the world economy, we are entering the century of "blue gold", in which the supply of water will be the determining factor in any new development.

11 February 2004 / by By Roger Cans

The fact that access to water was at the heart of the Johannesburg summit (South Africa) in 2002 (see box), is because, more than ever before, fresh water resources have become a strategic issue – and not only for countries suffering from "water stress", which have less than 2,000 m3 per person per year. In every country of the world, including the richest of all, the United States, water has become the factor that restricts agricultural, industrial and urban development.

The natural resource of fresh water is, in fact, very poorly distributed relative to human needs. The biggest reserves are at the poles, in the form of ice, or in regions which are almost uninhabited, such as Amazonia, the Congo basin or Siberia (Lake Baikal alone holds 20 % of the planet’s fresh water). Humanity, with its constantly increasing numbers, therefore has to share a resource which is not itself increasing and most of which is inaccessible.

Even with a stable population, demand for water can only rise. Of the planet’s 6 billion inhabitants, approximately 1.2 billion do not have access to running water and have to make do with fetching it from a river or well. These people, condemned to carrying buckets, consume only four to five litres a day. As soon as a tap is installed in a deprived village or area, daily consumption goes up to 15 to 20 litres per person and when the tap is located above a sink this increases tenfold, in consumer societies reaching the equivalent of 200 litres – for all purposes combined.

The dangers of over-consumption

To cap it all, this exponential growth in domestic consumption is even greater in dry and sunny regions. Americans leave the cold north-east of the United States to work or retire in Florida, Southern California and all the ’sun belt’ States, where periodic water shortages are starting to occur. The English too, like to spend their retirement years in Malaga, in Southern Spain, rather than the foggy north. As for tourists from all over the world, they opt for hot and dry destinations, which are then obliged to ration water or produce it at great cost by desalinating sea water.

While industrial consumption is tending to stabilise, thanks to water saving and recycling, agricultural use of water is rising constantly in all countries. Irrigation, which has been customary in dry regions, is now a standard method of cultivation in temperate zones, especially now that dry cereals (wheat, barley) are being replaced by maize, which requires a great deal of water at the height of summer. Even in humid tropical countries, the number of dams and reservoirs is increasing in order to irrigate rice in the dry season and to make two or three harvests per year possible, instead of just one during the rainy season. So much so, that today, in the majority of countries worldwide, between 70 % and 80 % of water resources are given over to agriculture. In central Asia, this agricultural over-consumption has led to the drying up of the Aral Sea.

A source of conflict

This consumption, of course, comes up against the limits of the resource and leads to much conflict. Some "water tower" countries, such as Turkey and Guinea, are starting to compete with countries downstream for their own development, Syria and Iraq in the case of the former, Mali and Niger in the case of the latter. Egypt, for example, built the huge Aswan Dam, which protects its inhabitants from the Nile floods, but does not prevent flooding in the Sudan. As for Israel, it is obliged to divert water from the River Jordan practically at its source and it rations water to its Palestinian and Jordanian neighbours.

Disputes also break out within the same country, as in Spain with its "national hydrological plan", which plans to divert water from the Ebro, in the north, to the thirsty south, despite the opposition of local people. It is even open war between Southern California, a now overpopulated semi-desert region, and Northern California, which needs its water for its orchards and vegetable production.

This is why the international community is devoting its energies to preserving a resource that has become scarce and which must be shared. In the Spring of 2000, the second World Forum on Water was held in The Hague (Netherlands). The question of the "right to water" demanded by non-governmental organisations (NGOs) but which worries some countries, was keenly debated at this event. The Johannesburg summit on sustainable development then jumped at the opportunity, supported by the big water distributors who are keen to become partners in the business. The third forum took place in March 2003 in Kyoto (Japan), where the industrial groups involved in water, purification, desalination and bottled water were out in force. As in The Hague, the conference was followed by a ministerial debate, in which the various water policies were compared and cooperation and solidarity programmes proposed. The World Forum was preceded by regional meetings on specific themes: disputes over water, flooding, water and sediments, the Nile basin, water and poverty, water in major conurbations, etc. The issue of water will also be at the centre of the discussions during the G8 summit in Evian, France, in June 2003.