26 June 2003

1. "Human rights group calls on Turkey to recognise Armenia genocide", a leading human rights organisation on Wednesday called on Turkey to recognise that the massacre of up to 1.5 million Armenians at the beginning of the last century was genocide.

2. "Turkey's governing party under fire over move for 15,000 new clerical jobs", Turkey's Islamist-rooted government came in for harsh criticism Wednesday over its proposal to add 15,000 new Muslim clergymen to the state payroll.

3. "Olive Branches From Ankara Raise Hopes And Challenges in Armenia", Armenian leaders, after two disputed elections, are now divided over how to receive recent overtures from Turkey. One camp doubts that Armenia’s most powerful neighbor really intends to normalize relations. Another group has expressed concern that Turkey does want to end the status quo, potentially causing trouble between Yerevan and the worldwide Armenian community known as the Diaspora.

4. "'Turkey solving its Kurdish and Islam problem'", Graham Fuller is an expert that has his "specialties". For eight years he served at the head of the CIA's political assessment section. For 12 years he served the U.S. renowned Rand Corp as an expert on issues related to political Islam and ethnic clashes in the Middle East - Central Asia, especially on the Kurdish problem. He has written books on political Islam and the Kurdish problem.

1. - AFP - "Human rights group calls on Turkey to recognise Armenia genocide":

PARIS / 25 June 2003

A leading human rights organisation on Wednesday called on Turkey to recognise that the massacre of up to 1.5 million Armenians at the beginning of the last century was genocide.

The International Federation for Human Rights (IFHR) said in an open letter to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that it was worried by recent Turkish educational guidelines regarding Turkey's treatment of minorities, especially Armenians.

The guidelines, said the IFHR, called on schools to "lead a negationist campaign regarding the oppression of minorities throughout Turkish history, in particular with regard for the Armenian community."

Armenians say up to 1.5 million of their kinsmen were massacred in orchestrated killings under the Ottoman Empire during World War I.

Turkey categorically rejects claims of genocide, saying that 300,000 Armenians and thousands of Turks were killed in what was a civil strife in 1915-1918 when the Armenians rose up against their Ottoman rulers.

In 2001, France triggered a storm in its relations with Turkey when its parliament passed a law describing the massacres as genocide.

At a 1948 United Nations international convention on the prevention of genocide the mass killings of Armenians were referred to as genocide, along with the Holocaust. The IFHR is a non-governmental organisation based in Paris.

2. - AFP - "Turkey's governing party under fire over move for 15,000 new clerical jobs":

ANKARA / 25 June 2003

Turkey's Islamist-rooted government came in for harsh criticism Wednesday over its proposal to add 15,000 new Muslim clergymen to the state payroll.

"This is unprecedented, religiously-oriented, anti-secularist nepotism," a spokesman of the secularist opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Anatolia news agency cited Mustafa Ozyurek, as saying.

"People with religious background are being appointed to all public offices, except the army. The government is making a serious bid to change the (secular) system," he added.

Overriding strong CHP opposition, members of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) voted in favor of a draft bill that would open 15,000 new public positions for imams -- or Muslim preachers -- and religious tutors, during a debate at the parliament's budget commission Tuesday.

The draft needs to be endorsed by parliament and approved by the president in order to take effect. The move came at a time when the AKP, viewed with suspicion by the secularist establishment and the powerful army, is already under fire for allegedly favoring pro-Islamist officials for public office appointments.

The state keeps a tight control on religious affairs in mainly Muslim but strictly secular Turkey, where Islamist extremism is seen as one of the primary threats to national stability. Mosques and Koranic courses function under government supervision and their staff are public employees.

The religious affairs directorate already employs some 76,000 people, most of them imams in mosques around the country, according to statistics by the institution.

Finance Minister Kemal Unakitan sought to cool down the row, saying that under a tight economic program, the government would create only 35,000 new jobs this year, and none for religious services. But Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin defended the proposal, saying that strengthening the ranks of the state-controlled clergy would help in the struggle against extreme Islamist movements.

"Nobody should look for other intentions beneath this," he said. The Turkish army, the self-declared guardian of secularism, is closely watching whether the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will compromise the country's secularist principles. Erdogan and many of his aides were members of the Welfare Party, which the military forced from power in 1997 and which was later banned for anti-secular activities.

3. - Eurasianet - "Olive Branches From Ankara Raise Hopes And Challenges in Armenia":

24 June 2003 / by Haroutiun Khachatrian*

Armenian leaders, after two disputed elections, are now divided over how to receive recent overtures from Turkey. One camp doubts that Armenia’s most powerful neighbor really intends to normalize relations. Another group has expressed concern that Turkey does want to end the status quo, potentially causing trouble between Yerevan and the worldwide Armenian community known as the Diaspora.

The dilemma materialized in May, when Armenian officials responded to reports that Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s foreign minister, had commented to the Turkish media about his government’s desire to achieve full relations with Armenia’s. Gul then met with his Armenian counterpart Vartan Oskanian in Madrid on June 4 and said that the two would address reconciliation "with renewed energy."

This tone counters mistrust stemming from the breakdown of the Soviet Union in late 1991. Turkey and Armenia never established diplomatic relations, largely because Turkey strongly supported Azerbaijan in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. (Turks and Azeris have a long history of ethnic kinship.) In April 1993, Ankara blocked the Armenian-Turkish border in response to Nagorno-Karabakh troops’ occupation of Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar region. Turkey lifted an air blockade a year later, implying that the blockade had damaged its own economy. But it never considered further normalization, unless Armenia first agreed to a "liberation of the Azeri territories." Now, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems interested in getting the border open, potentially as a precursor to full relations.

However, some Armenian politicians suspect that Gul’s statement serves a separate agenda. Turkey keenly wants to join the European Union, which means it wants to avoid any appearance of intransigence toward its neighbors. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. European nations are watching Turkey’s posture toward Armenia closely: Paris, in April, unveiled a monument to Komitas, the famous Armenian composer, who was a victim of the 1915 massacres of Armenians in Turkey. At the time, Gul asked French officials to avoid the term "genocide" in recalling the deaths, despite the fact that the French parliament had officially termed these events as "genocide" two years earlier. The Irish parliament on June 14 urged Turkey to "promote good neighborliness" with Armenia as part of a resolution praising Ankara’s progress toward European Union membership. Gul’s remarks reportedly contained no indication on Azerbaijan, implying that Ankara was seriously considering modifying its policy to suit European and American desires.

Given this possible ulterior motive, members of the Armenian Diaspora and some politicians balked at the idea of instant reconciliation. [For background on the Diaspora, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Armen Rustamian, chairman of the parliamentary commission on foreign relations, has conditioned diplomatic ties on Turkish "neutrality" regarding Nagorno-Karabakh and on recognition that the 1915 tragedy was an act of genocide. "The opening of borders does not yet mean the establishment of full-scale relations," he told
the Noyan-Tapan news agency on June 12. His suspicion spread far and wide: the liberal daily Azg ran a June 12 story rendering the Oskanian-Gul meeting an "illusion of progress." And ethnic Armenians worldwide, by invoking the genocide issue, could make Gul’s overtures more likely to stall.

Turkey has always rejected the claim that its troops perpetrated genocide on Armenians. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Now, a draft of a ceremonial bill awaits consideration by both houses of the US Congress. The document lists the "Armenian genocide" among those genocides worth commemorating by the United Nations, contradicting Turkey’s interpretation of history. The traditionalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutiun (ARF), which ruled the First Armenian Republic of 1918-20 and has won a role in Armenia’s new coalition government, has argued that Turkey’s current activities are simply "tricks" aimed at preventing this resolution. "They want to use ‘diplomacy’ to divert the issue," Rustamian, a member of the party’s leadership, told Noyan Tapan. On the same basis, the Armenian National Committee of America, an organization affiliated with ARF, rejected a meeting with Ecvet Tezcan, a Turkish Foreign Ministry official, and called him a "genocide denier."

With this issue unresolved, other issues have arisen. Gul reportedly tied normalization only to an absence of territorial claims from the Armenian side to Turkey. In reply, Oskanian expressed readiness to discuss normalization issues "without any preconditions." The language led the Golos Armenii newspaper to urge Armenia to try revising the Moscow and Kars treaties of 1921, in which Turkey and the Bolshevik-led Russia forced Armenia to adopt its current borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan. This border arrangement keeps Nakhcivan as an exclave in Azerbaijan.

Rustamian has also called for reparations in addition to recognition, breaking with his own government’s official policy. President Robert Kocharian has held to the position that seeking genocide recognition need not entail a punitive component. This policy, while it appears flexible, could trigger tension between the president and the Diaspora, many of whose members trace their ancestry to the events of 1915.

The prospect of reconciliation is hard to gauge. Armenia treats the expected reopening of the Turkish border as a serious victory. The end of a transportation blockade would make Armenia more attractive to investors and could improve the trade balance by opening Turkey to imports of Armenian goods. But even this step could bring more political and economic complications, which would make full normalization even more elusive. Edvard Simoniants, a former minister of national security, says opening borders may greatly increase imports of Turkish goods, which now go through Georgia before reaching Armenian markets. This could suppress domestic production, especially in agriculture and light manufacturing. Second, after the Gyumri-Kars railroad link between the two countries is reopened, international mediators may increase pressure on Armenia to impose very serious concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. [For background on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Finally, many worry that Armenia is politically too fragile and institutionally too immature to hold its own in normalized dealings with a nation of 67 million. Ties with Turkey could also mute Armenia’s alliance with its strategic partner, Russia. "For this reason, I think that Armenia should not hurry to fully normalize its relations with Turkey, and should prepare very carefully each step in this direction," Simoniants says. Whatever happens between the two countries, it is likely to happen deliberately.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

4. - Hurriyet - "'Turkey solving its Kurdish and Islam problem':

26 June 2003 / by M. Ali Birand

Graham Fuller is an expert that has his "specialties". For eight years he served at the head of the CIA's political assessment section. For 12 years he served the U.S. renowned Rand Corp as an expert on issues related to political Islam and ethnic clashes in the Middle East - Central Asia, especially on the Kurdish problem. He has written books on political Islam and the Kurdish problem.

You may or may not share his views. The point is, his impressions are quite interesting indeed. He took part in a conference staged in Ankara by the Eurasian Studies Center (ASAM) and he tried to speak (!) at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. I am saying he tried to because he was prevented from speaking. I think the students who acted in thatmanner did wrong. It must not be forgotten that by not letting him speak they missed the change to hear his views -- which they would probably find very interesting.

Fuller had the chance to disclose his views at MANSET (CNN TURK, 5 p.m.). For those who missed that program I want to give here part of his remarks.

Kurds may not be able to get what they expect

According to Fuller the U.S. has embarked in Iraq on an adventure fraught with risks. He thinks that Iraq may see an explosion of Arab nationalism. However, he does think it likely that an Iranian type religious state will be founded there.

Even more interesting was his words on the Iraqi Kurds. He believes that Barzani and Talabani have been able to act almost as if they are at the head of an independent state but that after a government gets formed in Iraq they will not have that kind of freedom of movement anymore.

He says, "The state to be founded will attach great importance to the country's territorial integrity and will want the powers to be gathered in the hands of the Baghdad government once again, and this this will be contrary to the Kurds' expectations in general."

Would the system to be created by the northern Iraqi Kurds could whet the appetites of certain Kurdish groups living in Turkey?

Fuller does not believe it would.

Turkey has understood the Kurdish problem

On the contrary, he stressed that Turkey has come to understand the Kurdish problem, seen how it can solve the problem and, in fact, taken significant steps to bring about a solution.

He said, "I am quite hopeful."

Fuller's view is important because he is an expert who has studied closely the Kurdish problem in Turkey.

He has made an observation which is even more significant than all that:

"A happy Diyarbakir would bring affluence to Turkey while causing problems for the other countries in the region. An unhappy Diyarbakir, on the other and, would constitute a danger for Turkey."

According to Fuller, Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin would not envy northern Iraq because they know that they would not be able to get anywhere else the democracy they enjoy in Turkey.

Turkey has solved its political Islam problem

Fuller stated also that Turkey has solved its political Islam problem.

How did that happen?

"Turkey has solved the problem thanks to democracy. No other country in the region has accomplished that. Via elections it has carried into Parliament a party that focuses on Islam. Tomorrow, in a new election. it may take the power from their hands and give it to another party. I mean, the democratic system is functioning. In such a climate political Islam cannot survive. In this respect Turkey has set an example to the other Islamic countries in the region."

A Turkey that can say No to U.S.

Fuller had recently been in Egypt.

He stressed that rejection of the U.S. troop deployment in Turkey motion has made an incredible impact on the fellow Islamic countries, that their way of looking at Turkey -- a country that can say No to America -- has changed greatly.

Europe too has the same impression.

In the EU Parliament I talked with numerous parliamentarians and I always heard the same words: "We used to think that Turkey's democracy was lame, that Parliament had to comply with whatever the military or the U.S. said. The motion incident has shown that our conviction was wrong."

Well, what could happen in relations with Iran in the existing circumstances?

Fuller does not expect a military operation to be directed against Iran. On the other hand he thinks that Washington will keep Tehran under political pressure and that maybe it will destroy Iran's nuclear installations.

The region, Turkey included, is rapidly changing. If we can keep up with the change, if we can cast aside the old, stereotyped views, we will all be relieved. However, there are some of us who resist change and they are not just a few people.