30 September 2002

1. "KADEK WARNED: Turkey will be dragged to chaos", Osman Ocalan, member of KADEKCouncil of Leaders, stated that Turkey had been dragged to a critical process, warning that repression on forces of democracy will lead Turkey to chaos.

2. "Turkish parliament set for election showdown", embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit is preparing for a showdown on Tuesday, when one of his partners in the fractious coalition government is to lead a bid to postpone the upcoming general election.

3. “Turkey’s electoral dance highlights contrast: the generals versus the voters”, it wasn’t what Turkey needed, but it had been expected for months. It was in line with what a prominent MP and journalist told The Daily Star back in February when she predicted: “They won’t let Recep Tayyip Erdogan contest the elections. The charges are ready and the laws are full of loopholes.”

4. "Turkey may receive a 'highly conditional' date from the EU", faced with a highly potential crisis in its relations with Turkey over Ankara's demand for a date for the start of accession talks on the one hand and Greek Cypriot accession on the other, Europe is searching a compromise formula that may avert a crisis. EU officials underline that Erdogan ban creates additional hurdles for Turkey getting a date for the start of accession talks

5. "Despite ban, Turkey's Erdogan launches campaign", banned from Turkey's upcoming elections because of a conviction for Islamist sedition, politician Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched his party's campaign on Saturday promising to put the jobless back in work.

6. "Turks fear Kurd insurgency", ISTANBUL: Turkey's prime minister has issued a warning to Iraqi Kurdish groups who this week approved a constitution that envisions replacing the dictatorship of President Saddam Hussein with a "federal Iraq." The prospect alarms Turkish leaders, whofear a US military campaign in Iraq will unleash ethnic Kurds' ambitions to create an independent state.

7. "Polfer: Turkey insensitive against verdicts of European Court”, term President of the Minister's Commission of Council of Europe and Luxembourg Foreign Minister Lydie Polfer presented a second report on Turkey to the Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe and criticized Turkey's insensitivity against the verdicts of the European Court of Human Rights.

8. “Tareq Aziz heads for Turkey for talks on US war threats”, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz left for Ankara on Monday and talks with Turkish officials on US threats to launch a new military strike on Baghdad, an official source said.

1. - Kurdish Observer - "KADEK WARNED: Turkey will be dragged to chaos":

Osman Ocalan, member of KADEK Council of Leaders, stated that Turkey had been dragged to a critical process, warning that repression on forces of democracy will lead Turkey to chaos.

MHA/FRANKFURT / 29 September 2002

Osman Ocalan, member of KADEK Council of Leaders, stated that Turkey now faced two alternatives, saying the following: "Either there will be a change or denial and destruction on the Kurdish people will continue. Turkey must choose one of them. Therefore either it will be insistent what it has been saying or it will transform itself."

Participated by telephone in the "Rojev" program in MEDYA TV, Ocalan commented on elections, democratisation of Turkey, South Kurdistan and attacks of village guards against villagers who had returned to their villages. Saying that an overwhelming majority of the society including the Kurds wished democracy, the Kurdish leader emphasized that adjustment laws should be implemented and it would be the beginning for the solution. Ocalan continued with words to the effect: "Fate of Turkey will be determined within a month. We have used our will in favor of peace and democracy but it should not be exploited. It should not be considered a weakness. Steps taken on August 2 should be implemented by a democratic parliament. Turkey should not withdraw. Neither the European Union nor its other allies could tolerate it. Because they see a democratic Turkey as appropriate for their own interests. Turkey cannot motivate the societal dynamics as it is. But the solution of the Kurdish problem and also the solutions of problems in Turkey pass through democratisation."

Drawing attention that they had been doing their best for a fair election, Ocalan asked for the forces of democracy to be strong against efforts to sabotage democratic initiatives.

"A new war lead Turkey to a crisis"

Ocalan warned the state officials and called on the forces of democracy, having this to say: "Nobody should think 'Their leader is in our hand, we can impose what we want, they will stay silent'. In case that those who have led Turkey to turmoil come to power, war will be the first item on the agenda. Everybody should see it realistically. We call out to the Turkish officials. They should see that interests of Turkey lay in democratisation. A new war will increase the existing crisis. We call out to the forces of democracy: They should mobilize all their forces in order to prevent a war."

"Block can get 25% of votes"

The Kurdish leader attracted attention that polls did not reflect the reality in full, adding that election was intervened psychologically and financially. Ocalan stated that the potential of the Leftist Block was 25%. Emphasizing that Istanbul was of great importance for the Block, Ocalan continued as follows: "In Istanbul there is 3 a left potential of 3 millions at worst. In Istanbul alone, it can get 2 million votes. It is a city where struggle between forces of democracy and reactionaries are the hardest. Forces of democracy in Istanbul approached to Newroz rather insensitively. But it is a place where there will be a great test for democracy." He also drew attention to the majority of female candidates in the list of the Leftist Block.

"If village guards attack once more…"

Touching the subject of terror of village guards, Osman Ocalan called out to the state officials and said that in case that measures were not taken on the matter, the people would use their right to defence. He said the following: "Village guards killed our 3 citizens. We call out to the state, it should take measures. In case that such an attack is launched again, our people will use their right to defence. We warn them. Village guards betrayed to their people and killed thousands of innocent people. If you continue this, you will be punished. Our people cannot accept such attacks. You have committed inexcusable crimes. But we will give you yet another opportunity, an opportunity to make themselves forgivable."

"All Kurds should be included in the discussions"

The Kurdish leader called attention to the latest developments in South Kurdistan and said the following: "South cannot be separated from North, North from South. At a time at which an armed intervention against Iraq is on the agenda, all forces reveal their true strength. Turkey says that it will not give permission to a Kurdish state. I think that Syria and Iran think likewise. Turkey, Iran and Syria are afraid of the establishment of a Kurdish state. Forces in the Middle East should organize a conference for a solution to the Kurdish question. Threats lead nowhere. There must be a broad dialogue between all forces. We have made calls to Turkey a number of times. Let's get together and find a solution to the Kurdish question, we have said. We have said the same thing to the other forces and countries like Syria and Iran. USA should discuss the problem not only with a group of Kurds but all Kurdish forces."

2. - AFP - "Turkish parliament set for election showdown":

ANKARA / 29 September 2002 / by Burak Akinci

Embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit is preparing for a showdown on Tuesday, when one of his partners in the fractious coalition government is to lead a bid to postpone the upcoming general election.

The move to call off the November 3 vote, backed by Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz's centre-right Motherland party (ANAP), threatens to deepen the political crisis brought on by Ecevit's faltering health and a series of high-profile resignations. The five-time prime minister conceded at the weekend that the bid to put back the vote could succeed despite his opposition.

"It's too late now (to postpone)," he told CNN television's Turkish channel. "But if the deputies try to force it through, they may succeed." A postponement could also affect Turkey's bid for membership of the European Union -- which has split the government over EU-sought democratic reforms -- a process Ecevit wants see formally launched by a Decembers summit of EU leaders in Copenhagen. The October 1 reconvening of parliament is traditionally a poorly-attended formality in election years, with members gathering briefly to agree on extending the recess until the vote.

If a quorum of 184 members turns up on Tuesday, however, they could succeed in prolonging the session and postponing the election. The move is supported by some 200 of the parliament's 550 members, including those of Recai Kutan's Islamist Saadet party, many of whom are protesting against their exclusion from party candidate lists. They are joined by mainstream secular parties -- including Yilmaz's ANAP -- which opinion polls suggest are at risk of falling below the 10 percent of votes required to hold parliamentary seats.

Yilmaz insists he wants the election delayed until December to allow Turkey to focus on its EU membership bid. Ecevit's former foreign minister Ismail Cem, who resigned to found his New Turkey party (YT) with other government defectors, also looks set to lose his seat if the vote goes ahead on schedule. Recent polls had suggested that the November 3 election would hand power to a popular politican with Islamic roots, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But the former mayor of Istanbul has been barred from standing in the election by the electoral authorities because of his 1999 conviction for "inciting religious hatred" by reciting a poem.

His moderate Islamist Justice and Development party (AK) has caused consternation in the secularist establishment of the mainly Muslim nation where the staunchly secular army wields significant influence in politics. The AK remains opposed to postponing the single-round election as it is determined to cash in on its current strong lead in the polls, where it is trailed by the Republican People's party (CHP), which won no seats in the last election in 1999.

Also opposing a delay are Ecevit's Democratic Left party (DSP) and its other governing partner, Devlet Bahceli's right-wing Nationalist Action party (MHP). The election, originally scheduled for 2004, was brought forward as a result of the country's political crisis -- which took a turn for the worse earlier this month when the MHP issued a legal challenge against democratic reforms adopted in August designed to meet EU membership criteria.

These included abolition of the death penalty, new language rights for the country's minority Kurds and safeguards on freedom of speech. A new administration with a strong popular mandate is seen as vital in Turkey, at a time when a possible US attack on neighbouring Iraq could destabilise the region, and as Turkey implements wide-ranging economic reforms required under the terms of its 16-billion-dollar (euro) loan from the International Monetary Fund.

3. - The Daily Star (Libanon) – “Turkey’s electoral dance highlights contrast: the generals versus the voters”:

30 September 2002

It wasn’t what Turkey needed, but it had been expected for months. It was in line with what a prominent MP and journalist told The Daily Star back in February when she predicted: “They won’t let Recep Tayyip Erdogan contest the elections. The charges are ready and the laws are full of loopholes.”

On Sept. 23, the Higher Electoral Board (YSK) banned Erdogan, former Istanbul mayor and leader of the popular Justice and Development Party (AKP), from the Nov. 3 polls. They ruled that his conviction in 1998 under Article 312 of the Penal Code ­ for “inciting religious hatred” in a poem he had read out at a public gathering ­ disqualified him from running for public office for a period that does not expire until early next year.

The board cited the same legislation to also disqualify the elder statesman of Turkey’s Islamists, former Premier Necmettin Erbakan, as well as others including Kurdish leader Murat Bozlak and the country’s foremost human rights campaigner, Akin Birdal.

The latest bans are the most sweeping since those that followed the September 1980 military coup. Then, the army banned all the main political party leaders (including Erbakan, Suleyman Demirel and Bulent Ecevit), setting the stage for the rise of the late Turgut Ozal at the 1983 polls.

But Turkey was under military rule then. Now, it is striving to gain admission to the European Union (EU), which means complying with the “Copenhagen criteria” that require it to expand political freedoms, strengthen democracy and recognize the cultural rights of minorities (especially the Kurds).

The bans are sure to hurt Ankara’s EU aspirations. Ankara had hoped January’s EU summit would set a date for the start of full accession talks. But the coordinator of relations between the European and Turkish parliaments, Dutch legislator Joost Lagendajk, made plain that the disqualification of politicians and parties from elections would not help Turkey make the case that it has the necessary democratic credentials to join the Union. “It would have been better to let voters choose instead of … banning,” he said.

Erdogan’s ban is linked to the findings of opinion polls, which consistently show his AKP winning 20-25 percent of the vote, making it the largest party in Parliament. Its position in the legislature would be further strengthened if, as seems likely, some other parties fail to gain the minimum 10 percent of votes needed to enter Parliament. The AKP could even win an absolute majority and form a government on its own, without needing coalition partners.

To avert this “nightmare scenario” (a term hard-line Kemalists have been trying to popularize), the “regime,” the “entrenched state,” or the “hidden centers of power” (terms opponents use to denote the military establishment and its offshoots in the bureaucracy, judiciary and media) had been expected to take action ­ the kind taken so often in the past that it no longer arouses qualms or embarrassment. Adversaries who aren’t removed by military fiat can be targeted by judicial measures, or even physically eliminated.

The YSK’s move made clear that the “Islamic threat” is still perceived by the regime as its number one enemy, and that the “1,000-year war,” which former chief of staff General Huseyin Kivrikoglu vowed to wage against the Islamists, is still on.

The famous “Feb. 28 decrees,” under which the army forced Erbakan from office in 1997, were followed by a succession of harsh anti-Islamist measures, from the banning of women’s headscarves and the closure of the Imam-Hatip religious schools network, to the prohibition of political parties and the jailing and banning of their leaders.

It had been assumed that Turkey’s subsequent quest to join the EU would result in pressure on the Islamists being eased. But it has now become plain that the “hidden centers of power,” while prepared to sacrifice Turkey’s sovereignty, are not yet willing to show a modicum of tolerance to the Islamists.

This is a problem that has faced the Turkish republic since its inception. The numerous prohibitions imposed by the state have proven to be its main source of instability, as its drive to impose a distinct brand of democracy and secularism resulted in discrimination between its citizens, ethnic groups and regions. The regime has had no qualms about dragging Kurdish MPs ­ such as legislator Leyla Zana ­ from parliament to prison to serve 15-year terms, or outlawing popularly-elected political parties like the Islam-based Refah (Welfare) Party in 1998 and its successor the Fazilet (Virtue) Party last year.

The latest banning orders show that, irrespective of the EU factor, the “Feb. 28 regime” has no intention of accommodating Islamist and Kurdish opponents, even at the cost of deepening social divisions and exacerbating political conflicts.

The AKP’s popularity owes much to Erdogan’s personality. He is young and charismatic, with a record of dedication to public service and integrity that sets him apart from the pro-establishment political class, most of which is tainted by corruption. Disqualifying him from the running is intended to undermine his party’s appeal to voters, as he would not be able to become prime minister if he were not a member of Parliament.

But the move could backfire, as Erdogan intends to remain AKP leader and nominate someone else from the party as head of the next government should it come first in the polls.

He did not weaken in the face of the disqualification order, but appeared stronger than ever when he addressed his party loyalists on the day the ban was announced: “The nation should know that they want to disqualify it, not me,” he declared. “The Erdogan saga is no longer a personal one. The nation gave me a mandate and I will not turn my back on this mandate. And on Nov. 3, the nation will undo the knots they tied to prevent us from serving the people.”

He continued: “This is a passing day in the history of Turkish democracy. I am confident that the conscience of Turkey, which was dealt a deep wound today, will correct this wrong decision. I was banned, while bank robbers, bribe-takers and violators of human rights and freedom were not banned. But no tunnel lasts forever, every night is followed by a dawn and darkness is a cradle for light.”

All the establishment’s efforts are now focused on ensuring that Erdogan’s main rival, the Republican People’s Party under its new duumvirate composed of Deniz Baykal and Kemal Dervis, wins the Nov. 3 polls.

Washington may well have had a hand in getting Erbakan banned ahead of its planned war on neighboring Iraq. But one thing is for sure: Turkey faces a further period of social and political instability so long as the hard-line “Feb. 28 mentality” continues to hold sway over the country and its people.

Mohammad Noureddine is an expert on Turkish affairs. He wrote this commentary for The Daily Star

4. - Turkish Daily News - "Turkey may receive a 'highly conditional' date from the EU":

BRUSSELS / 30 September 2002 / by Yusuf Kanli

Faced with a highly potential crisis in its relations with Turkey over Ankara's demand for a date for the start of accession talks on the one hand and Greek Cypriot accession on the other, Europe is searching a compromise formula that may avert a crisis. EU officials underline that Erdogan ban creates additional hurdles for Turkey getting a date for the start of accession talks

Europe admits that it was wrong to remain silent to optimism building up in Ankara early this year that Kurdish education and broadcasting reforms and lifting of death penalty would make Turkey eligible to get a date for the start of accession talks. The real problem, EU officials cite, is the dominant place of Turkish military in policy making mechanism

The European Commission is suggesting the European Council give Turkey a date in between the end of the first enlargement wave, 2004 and 2009 for the start of the accession talks 'provided that there has been sufficient and sustained progress towards satisfying the Association Protocol.' This implies that Turkey will be given a highly conditional and imperceptible date

European Commission executives, Danish term presidency and people involved in development of European policies have been working on a formula that will on the one hand prevent a possible hurried move in Ankara that may severely damage the ties, while on the other hand constitute sufficient pressure to speed up reforms in this country; get the Greek Cypriot government in the EU but as well keep the doors open for eventual Turkish Cypriot accession

The European Council is preparing to give a "highly conditional" date to Turkey for the start of accession talks which would largely depend on to what extend Ankara will be able to conform with the demand to "liberate" the policy-making mechanism from the influence of the military.

Faced with a highly potential crisis in its relations with Turkey over Ankara's demand for a date for the start of accession talks on the one hand and Greek Cypriot accession on the other, Europe is searching a compromise formula that may avert a crisis. EU officials underline that the ban on Justice and Development Party (AK Party or AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stripping the Islamist politician from running in the upcoming Turkish parliamentary elections, creates additional hurdles for Turkey getting a date for the start of accession talks.

In contacts in Brussels, the TDN was told by European senior executives and politicians that a possible delay of the Turkish elections, amendments made in the elections and political parties laws and in the Constitution enabling Erdogan, as well as Necmettin Erbakan, the leader of political Islam in Turkey, and pro-Kurdish politicians like Murat Bozlak and Akin Birdal - all convicted under the controversial Penal Code Article 312 that regulates crimes against the state and barred by the Supreme Electoral Board from running in polls on grounds that people sentenced under that article could not run for public office even if pardoned - could help Turkey get a "date or indeed a better date" as such a move would be considered by the EU as a "solid confirmation" of the "sincerity and determination" of the "civilian administration" in Turkey to enhance and consolidate democracy and democratic institutions in the country.

As the EU Commission report on Turkey and other candidates will be released on Oct. 9, European officials appeared alarmed that the Turkish election campaign will be dominated with the EU issue. Besides, there are fears that when the EU Council ends on Dec. 14, a new government may not yet be formed in Ankara. As it is generally believed that neither the Democratic Left Party (DSP) of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit nor the pro-EU Motherland Party (ANAP) of Mesut Yilmaz will succeed in the polls and the anti-EU National Movement Party (MHP) irrespective of whether it succeeds or fails in the polls, a government in office composed of these three parties on Dec. 14 could plunge Turkey "into an adventure otherwise unthinkable" by Turkey.

These remarks of EU Commission executives and politicians, indeed, provided a sound background to the remarks of the pro-EU ANAP leader Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz who after talks with Guenter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, suggested earlier this month in Brussels that it was in Turkey's best interest to postpone the polls until after the December Copenhagen summit of the EU Council and in the meantime continue the reform drive.

EU executives and politicians admit that it was wrong to remain silent to optimism building up in Ankara early this year that some key reforms easing restrictions on Kurdish education and broadcasting and lifting of the death penalty would make Turkey eligible to get a date for the start of accession talks. "We ought to have made it clear to Turks that those reforms were required but just constituted some of the many steps that Ankara was expected to take before fully conforming with the Copenhagen political criteria and thus becoming eligible to get a date. However, we preferred to remain silent, acted with the belief that we should not discourage moves in those areas. We hid ourselves behind the European Commission whereas we were required to tell our Turkish friends that the real problem continued to be the dominant place of Turkish military in policy making mechanism," a top European source told the TDN.

On the other hand, EU executives and politicians also underlined in talks with the TDN that the European club of democracies did not have a clear mind yet of what role they would like to give to Turkey: A full-fledged member or a periphery country with an advanced web of relations?

Although the election victory in Germany of the Social Democrat Party and the Greens was expected to help Turkey get a date for the start of the accession talks, EU officials stressed that the date that would be given to Turkey, if given, would be a highly conditional one and would become operational if Ankara fulfilled all criteria prescribed in the Association Protocol, that goes beyond the Copenhagen political criteria and in effect consolidates in the country supremacy of law and civilian administration norms.

According to well-placed sources, the European Commission was likely to suggesting the European Council give Turkey a date in between the end of the first enlargement wave, 2004 and 2009 for the start of the accession talks "provided that there has been sufficient and sustained progress towards satisfying the Association Protocol." This implies, sources said, Turkey will be given a highly conditional and imperceptible date subject to the progress Turkey will make.

This approach of giving Turkey a date although it was considered still far away from conforming to all the criteria prescribed in the Association protocol, sources said, stemmed from the desire of the EU to prevent a head-on collision with date aspiring Turkey and the EU particularly in view of the Greek Cypriot EU accession.

European Commission executives, Danish term presidency and people involved in development of European policies have been working on a formula that will on the one hand prevent a possible hurried move in Ankara that may severely damage the ties, while on the other hand constitute sufficient pressure to speed up reforms in this country; get the Greek Cypriot government in the EU but as well keep the doors open for eventual Turkish Cypriot accession.

The EU approach was largely interrelated with the Cyprus peace talks and the new role United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan is preparing to take in the Cyprus direct talks process.

According to well-placed sources, the U.N. secretary-general has indicated, at a September Paris meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Glafcos Clerides, that the U.N. will change its role in the negotiations process and will become "more active." At the planned Oct. 4 meeting in New York, the U.N. secretary-general will confirm the new role of the U.N. and provide the two leaders with hints of a new paper he was planning to present the two sides in mid-November on a "take it or leave it" basis if by than the sides fail to achieve to come to a comprehensive and complete agreement themselves. The new document, sources said, would be prepared taking into consideration the 1992 "set of ideas", the Belgian model of "three-tier government" and the discussions of the two leaders in the latest hundreds of hours of deliberations within the direct talks process.

"It will be a compromise paper and the two sides will be expected to say 'yes' or 'no' by the December EU Council summit. The document will be a framework agreement and the sides are anticipated to continue talks and finish a deal by end of March 2003," sources said adding that the Treaty of Accession between Cyprus and the EU was anticipated to be signed in April and become effective all over the island.

A Greek Cypriot rejection could kill the prospect of signing with EU the Treaty of Accession, while a Turkish Cypriot rejection would create further complications both on the island and for Turkey's EU aspirations, the sources said in a veiled threat.

In the meantime, however, the EU is considering taking a set of measures to demonstrate that the "door will be kept open" for the Turkish Cypriot people. These measures, expected to be announced "irrespective of the progress in the Cyprus talks" reportedly include:

a- Lifting the travel embargo on Turkish Cypriots and allowing direct flights to and from Turkish Cypriot territory;

b- Opening a fully-staffed EU Commission information office in northern Cyprus;

c- Encouraging both sides of the island to facilitate the movement of persons across the green line (Force the Greek Cypriot side lift the overnight stay ban in northern Cyprus for tourists and force the Turkish Cypriot side accept Turkish Cypriot visitors stay overnight in Greek Cypriot territory);

d- Acceptance by the customs services of the European Union of goods exported from northern Cyprus stamped by the Turkish Cypriot Chamber of Commerce as being of Cyprus origin (effectively lifting the trade embargo on northern Cyprus);

e- Opening of appropriate assistance programs of the European Union to northern Cyprus on a provisional basis (like providing support to research projects at Turkish Cypriot universities or providing funds to projects by NGOs); and

f- Direct contacts between officials of the European Commission and northern Cyprus administration over the preparation of measures to adapt the Treaty of Accession to accommodate particular needs of northern Cyprus.

The European Commission, on the other hand, appeared to be concerned that once the Greek Cypriot side was told it has become eligible to sign the Treaty of Accession and once the embargo on northern Cyprus trade and direct flights were lifted both sides may become more reluctant to make a political deal and were brainstorming what additional measures they could unveil in the Council statement to force both sides to remain committed to a Cyprus accord by end of March 2003.

5. - Reuters - "Despite ban, Turkey's Erdogan launches campaign":

HAKKARI / 29 September 2002 / by Claudia Parsons

Banned from Turkey's upcoming elections because of a conviction for Islamist sedition, politician Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched his party's campaign on Saturday promising to put the jobless back in work.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), leading in opinion polls, staged a rally in Turkey's impoverished southeast, promising to boost employment amid a severe recession that brought about a $16 billion IMF bailout.

Erdogan remains at the helm of AKP, although a decision last week disqualifying him from standing in the November 3 polls has dashed his hopes of becoming Turkey's next prime minister.

The powerful military, worried by AKP's popularity, sees in Erdogan an unreformed radical since his days as Istanbul mayor when he was jailed for "inciting hatred" for reciting a poem with the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes are helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers."

AKP denies it is a religion-based party and says it has broken with its Islamist roots in two banned parties.

Financial markets also eye AKP with suspicion, doubting its commitment to an IMF-backed economic recovery.

"When you cast your vote, you must say, 'We want justice,'" said Erdogan, promising tax cuts to help firms hire Turkish workers instead of unregistered foreigners.

APPEAL TO THE POOR

The populist rhetoric is likely to resonate with the people of Hakkari province, one of Turkey's poorest regions and the scene of a 17-year-long battle between Kurdish separatists and Turkish security forces that killed more than 30,000 people.

"AK Party is seeking peace in Turkey," Erdogan said. "There is no religious or ethnic nationalism in the AK Party. No ethnic group is superior to any other ethnic group. We are all people.

"We all speak the same language, and I'm going to say the same things all over the country," Erdogan said, standing next to a statue of Turkey's secular founder Ataturk.

Despite tight security during Erdogan's speech, a scuffle broke out between AKP loyalists and backers of the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), seen as AKP's main rival in the mainly Kurdish southeast.

Children waving flags and women joined supporters at the rally in conservative Hakkari, a leafy city of some 150,000 residents less than an hour's drive from the Iraqi border.

Elzem, a 25-year-old school teacher dressed in an Islamic head scarf, said she saw Erdogan "as a leader of freedom."

Her friend Gulay, 26, said Erdogan promised "justice."

"I'm a teacher, but I haven't worked in two years. Unemployment is the biggest problem," she said.

Poverty-stricken farming communities of mud-brick houses skirt Hakkari, a green oasis beneath towering brown mountains in a valley fed by the Zapzu river.

Despite the city's apparent lushness, residents complained about a lack of running water.

Shopkeeper Mehmet, 28, lived in Istanbul for two years, and he praised Erdogan for introducing basic social services for the poor there, Turkey's largest city of some 10 million people.

Still, Mehmet was cautious.

"We shouldn't mix politics and religion," he said. "Politics is one thing and religion is another. We're all Muslims, but we don't vote for him because he's Muslim."

6. - The Washington Post - "Turks fear Kurd insurgency":

ISTANBUL / by Karl Vick / 28 September 2002

ISTANBUL: Turkey's prime minister has issued a warning to Iraqi Kurdish groups who this week approved a constitution that envisions replacing the dictatorship of President Saddam Hussein with a "federal Iraq." The prospect alarms Turkish leaders, whofear a US military campaign in Iraq will unleash ethnic Kurds' ambitions to create an independent state.

"Even though they say, 'We are against founding a Kurdish state,' a de facto state is already on the way to being formed," Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit complained on Wednesday night, hours after the draft constitution was approved. "If this becomes official, there will be serious problems."

Iraqi Kurdish officials said Ecevit overreacted to what they characterized as a tentative move in an open process intended to avoid chaos in the aftermath of Saddam's ouster. The constitution, agreed to by the two rival Kurdish political parties that have controlled an autonomous section of northern Iraq since 1991, still must be submitted to other Iraqi opposition groups that the United States is trying to mobilize against the Iraqi leader.

The flap pointed up the fragile nature of the coalition the Bush administration aims to bring together to remove a despot it accuses of producing chemical and biological weapons. In recent weeks, Turkish officials have obliquely threatened to send troops into northern Iraq to thwart Kurdish ambitions there; a Kurdish leader replied that northern Iraq would then become a "graveyard" for Turkish troops.

Administration officials say no decision has been made on what action to take against Saddam, and the UN Security Council is mulling proposals that might sanction the use of force.

Turkey, as a longtime strategic US ally that borders northern Iraq, would be a crucial base for US ground troops and warplanes in almost any military scenario. But its leadership is wary of the Iraqi Kurds, whom the Pentagon is preparing to train to work alongside US forces inside Iraq. Turkey, which is home to 13 million ethnic Kurds, has spent much of the last two decades fighting Turkish Kurd separatists.

The draft constitution, which calls for a "federated zone" encompassing Kurdish areas inside Iraq, was viewed as an expression of Kurdish ambitions for full independence, an outcome Turkey has repeatedly said it would move to prevent with the use of troops.

"It only becomes official when all Iraqi people make it official," said Safeen Dizayee of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which approved the document along with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

7. - Turkish Daily News - "Polfer: Turkey insensitive against verdicts of European Court":

ANKARA / 28 September 2002

Term President of the Minister's Commission of Council of Europe and Luxembourg Foreign Minister Lydie Polfer presented a second report on Turkey to the Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe and criticized Turkey's insensitivity against the verdicts of the European Court of Human Rights.

Turkey underwent the intensive pressure of Strasbourg because of its incoherent policies towards implementation of the decisions of the ECHR against it. After the approval of a report prepared by Dutch deputy Erik Jurgens to criticize the applications of Turkey on ECHR decisions on Monday, the executive body of Council of Europe, Commission of Ministers expressed its concern with a news report.

Polfer also made a speech during which he presented the report to the agenda of the Assembly and strongly criticized Turkey. Reminding the DEP case, Polfer stated that "he presented the case personally to the attentions of the Turkish government."

Polfer stated that "Although the reform package legislated by Turkish Parliament in August has been evaluated as a progressive report by international circles, these reforms have not affected the situation of the applicators of the DEP case. So, it is necessary to act on this issue immediately."

Polfer reiterated in his written report that Turkey has not applied the decisions of the ECHR.

8. – AFP – “Tareq Aziz heads for Turkey for talks on US war threats”:

BAGHDAD / 30 Sept 2002

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz left for Ankara on Monday and talks with Turkish officials on US threats to launch a new military strike on Baghdad, an official source said.

Aziz will deliver a message from President Saddam Hussein to Turkish counterpart Ahmet Necdet Sezer on the "latest developments in the region and the continuing US threats of a new strike against Iraq," the source said. He will also hold talks with Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit.

Aziz's trip coincides with a visit by US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones, who met senior Turkish officials in Ankara on Monday in a bid to drum up support from a reluctant NATO ally for moves against Iraq.

Turkey, a close Muslim ally of Washington, hosts US and British warplanes which enforce the northern no-fly zone over Iraq. Its support would be crucial should the United States launch a military operation.

But Turkey has publicly opposed a US military operation against its southern neighbour, worrying that regional turmoil could exacerbate its economic crisis and destabilize the Turkish-Iraqi border, populated on both sides by Kurds. Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit recently said that US and British suspicions that Iraq could soon develop nuclear weapons did not justify a war.

Ankara fears that toppling the regime of Saddam Hussein could prompt the Kurds in northern Iraq, outside Baghdad's control since the 1991 Gulf War, to declare independence, which in turn could rekindle separatist sentiment among Turkey's Kurds.