31 October 2002

1. "Nervous ally caught in the middle again", Geography is destiny, Turkey would be the first to acknowledge. In ordinary times, its pivotal position has been enough to make it one of the US’s most useful allies; with the Bush Administration apparently set on war in Iraq, it is now one of the most-courted.

2. "Party With Islamic Roots Likely to Win Turkish Vote", Turkey looks set to give a victory in this Sunday's parliamentary elections to an untested party with Islamic roots, a prospect that scares many in this moderate Muslim nation but that others see as a crucial test of how well democracy here and a greater emphasis on Islam can co-exist.

3. "Scared Turkish secularists flock to leftist party to face down", aspiring actress Hulya Yildiz shouts over the music at a hip dance club, saying she fears that a political party with Islamic roots could take power and close down clubs where alcohol flows freely.

4. "DEHAP’s march to the parliament and the meaning of the Istanbul meeting", for example, the possibility of Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) entering the parliament and becoming the main opposition party. Can such a thing happen? Why not? This is Turkey after all!

5. "`Biji DEHAP` in Istanbul", even with the most pessimistic guess, there were at least 200,000 people in DEHAP’s Istanbul meeting. (...) A few days ago, intellectuals, writers, artists and journalists organized a reception in Istanbul with the name of “ You don’t Need To Be a DEHAP Member To Vote For DEHAP”. They declared “My Vote Is For DEHAP for the honour of labor, permenency of peace and victory of democracy.”

6. "Iraqi Kurd leader "certain" of US attack after Ramadan", Iraqi Kurd leader Jalal Talabani said Thursday he was "certain" of a United States attack aimed at ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein after the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

1. - The Times - "Nervous ally caught in the middle again":

31 October 2002 / by Bronwen Maddox

GEOGRAPHY is destiny, Turkey would be the first to acknowledge. In ordinary times, its pivotal position has been enough to make it one of the US’s most useful allies; with the Bush Administration apparently set on war in Iraq, it is now one of the most-courted.

But it is a relationship that the United States has often “taken for granted”, as Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State, said last year. It would be wrong to call it close; it has been threaded with nervousness on either side.

Both Washington and Ankara are doggedly taking the line that, regardless of the outcome of the Turkish elections, the relationship will hold good. It is just about possible to take that at face value — the mutual incentives are clear — but that blithely glosses over the tensions that are already present.

We can start with the cliché, however, of Turkey’s “indispensability” to the US. That is secured by its attractions as a secular, democratic, Muslim ally (the only Muslim member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), its friendliness to Israel, its role in bridging the Islamic world and the West and its proximity to a region in which the US has few steady friends, symbolised by the Incirlik air force base.

General Tommy Franks, the US commander of the Afghan campaign and a favourite of President Bush, who could well be in charge of an Iraqi assault, was in Ankara last week to spell out the US’s immediate requests. Use of the airbase to launch an attack topped the list, followed by the suggestion that Turkish forces be deployed along the border to catch fleeing Iraqis. There will also, no doubt, now be more pressure from Washington to stop Iraq smuggling oil out by trucking it over the border, one of several routes by which Baghdad has been able to circumvent UN sanctions.

Both the present Turkish Government and those politicians who may make up a new one have hinted in the past month that these demands would be met, although they are unwelcome. Turkey has loudly advertised its reluctance to see an attack on Iraq.

Turkey is “caught in the middle”, Bulent Ecevit, the Prime Minister, argued last week, adding that “we’re telling Washington that we’re worried about the matter”. It does not want to be put in the position of Pakistan in the Afghan campaign, as a reluctant ally of the US, suffering enormous internal tension because of its support for a war.

There is its general fear of instability in the region. There is the distraction that it feels a new war would pose to its main aim: winning membership of the European Union. It has only just emerged from the disruption of a decade of Balkans conflict, which sent thousands of refugees in its direction; the last thing it wants is another bloody battle on its doorstep. There is the impact on the economy, already precarious, and certain to be harmed further by any conflict.

Above all, Turkey is mistrustful of American intentions towards the Kurds in Iraq. Turkey does not want its own restive Kurdish population to break away, and feels that the American-imposed no-fly zone over Kurdish territory in northern Iraq has already done much to encourage just that ambition.

Despite all those misgivings, there has been no suggestion from either Mr Ecevit or his rivals that Turkey would refuse its ally the help it wants. But the price Turkey puts on setting aside its ambivalence is at least $4 billion (£2.6 billion), possibly $6 billion, it seems. It wants Washington to continue to back the loan programme from the International Monetary Fund, progressing fitfully, but essential for anything like stability. It also wants America to lean on the EU to be more encouraging about Turkey’s application to join.

It will get what it wants, we should assume. Kissinger is right that the US has been casual about the relationship in the past. But the requirements of an attack on Iraq — and the prospect of a Government in Ankara that may be less sympathetic to the US — have done wonders to concentrate American minds.

2. - The New York Times - "Party With Islamic Roots Likely to Win Turkish Vote":

ISTANBUL / 30 October 2002 / by Ian Fisher

Turkey looks set to give a victory in this Sunday's parliamentary elections to an untested party with Islamic roots, a prospect that scares many in this moderate Muslim nation but that others see as a crucial test of how well democracy here and a greater emphasis on Islam can co-exist.

Polls give the party, Justice and Development, as much as 30 percent of the vote — a lead it hopes to translate into a single-party government in a nation that has zealously defended its secularism since its founding as a republic in 1923.

It is a measure of progress, in Turkey's long and fitful drive to full democracy, that there seems no chance that the military will step in as it has done whenever it felt the state was threatened. The party's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is too popular, his message has been moderate and Turkey is eager to burnish its democratic credentials in the hope of joining the European Union.

But Turkey's so-called establishment — the politicians, soldiers and judges who see themselves as the guardians of the state's sanctified secularism — has worked hard to prevent the party from winning. Last month, the election board banned Mr. Erdogan from running, though he still campaigns as the party's popular face. Last week, the chief prosecutor filed a suit to outlaw the party itself.

With the election days away, Mr. Erdogan, 48, the former mayor of Istanbul, is in any case drawing huge crowds. But he and his party do not promise to Islamicize Turkey — they have, to the contrary, vigorously played down the party's Islamic roots. Instead, the party's appeal lies in its determination to end corruption, to revive the economy and to listen to the plight of ordinary Turks.

"They said they were going to keep down Tayyip Erdogan," he told 25,000 or more supporters, some with the beards and head scarves of pious Muslims but many others with shaved faces and uncovered heads, at a rally in Istanbul on Sunday. "Look at this crowd."

A complicated dynamic is thus driving this election. At a time when much of the world is jittery about the role of Islam in politics and terror, and Turkey's place as a strategic bridge between West and East is especially vital, voters seem willing to gamble around the edges of secularism out of anger at the nation's current politicians.

In fact, disgust with the country's politics is such that none of the parties in the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit are polling above or near 10 percent — the threshold for winning seats in Parliament.

"There are certain basic qualities about Turkey that we have to change — politics are dirty," said Sebahat Tolu, 31, a single woman and fashion stylist, who attended Mr. Erdogan's rally in trousers with an uncovered head. She said she worries about Mr. Erdogan's Islamic "point of view." But she liked the job he did as Istanbul mayor in the 1990's, expanding electricity, water, and cleaning up the streets, and so is willing to take a risk. "As long as he maintains a balance, as long as he doesn't step over the line, he is the leader," she said.

If Justice and Development does win the election, the biggest unknown is what role Mr. Erdogan would play in any new government. Under present law, he cannot hold public office because of a past conviction for inciting religious hatred. He has left open the possibility of amending the Constitution to allow himself to be a minister of some stripe.

"It means his intention is to lead the government from behind the scenes and to appoint a weak prime minister," said Ilter Turkmen, a former foreign minister. "What we need is a strong prime minister, a modern prime minister."

But even a behind-the-scenes role for Mr. Erdogan makes some here nervous. Many refuse to dismiss his past. Elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, he banned alcohol in municipal restaurants, opposed entry into the European Union and supported withdrawing from NATO. "You cannot be secular and a Muslim at the same time," he said in a speech in 1995. "The world's 1.5 billion Muslims are waiting for the Turkish people to rise up. We will rise up."

In 1997, he recited a poem that landed him in jail for four months, ending his tenure as mayor. That was the charge that the elections board used to ban him from these elections, though there is no doubt he remains the head of his party.

"There is still a lot of worry that they are not sincere in their willingness to play by the rules and uphold the secular state," said Kemal Dervis, a former World Bank vice president and former economy minister, now a candidate with the Republican People's Party, which is running second in the polls.

Mr. Dervis said he worries about how well the party would guide Turkey into the European Union. Others have raised concerns about how solid an ally Mr. Erdogan's party would be to the United States, a longtime friend, in the event of an attack on Iraq, a fellow Muslim nation.

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Erdogan and other party leaders have projected a moderate, pro-Western, pro-European Union stance, even while promising observant Muslims greater freedom of expression, itself a contentious issue in Turkey. Yet they say their government would be defined not by religion but for being competent, honest and a beacon to democracy in other Muslim nations.

"We want to prove that a Muslim country could be democratic, transparent and compatible with the modern world," Mr. Erdogan's deputy, Abdullah Gul, said earlier this month in a speech in Brussels, on one of several such trips party chiefs have made to soothe nervous Western political and business leaders.

The moderate oratory has helped tamp down some immediate concern about Mr. Erdogan and other party leaders, who trace their roots to the Welfare Party, the first pro-Islamist party to govern Turkey, which Turkey's army eased out of power in 1997 after only a year in office. Few doubt that the military would act as fail-safe again if, like the Welfare Party, Justice and Development became too Islamist.

"That party is made up of human beings, and human beings learn from their lessons," said Cem Duna, a financial consultant and former Turkish ambassador to the European Union. "If they haven't learned, they are in serious trouble."

Mr. Duna said he is more concerned by the party's inexperience and what he said was a narrow view of the world. "Their ignorance is their main threat," he said. "The trouble is, the other parties are no less worrisome."

At a minimum, many experts say, Mr. Erdogan's candidacy has put before Turkey a critical test of its unripened democracy. The test is especially immediate as the country hopes to set a date for talks about joining the European Union at its summit meeting in December.

Jonathan Sugden, a Human Rights Watch researcher who follows Turkey, speculated that the powers that be in Turkey faced a dilemma in this election. They feared a victory by Mr. Erdogan could discourage the Europeans from setting an immediate date for talks. But then, he said, banning Mr. Erdogan from running did not prove Turkey's commitment to democracy either. "They must know this sort of manipulation of elections doesn't enhance their chances," he said. "This has clearly presented problems for them."

The perception of Turkey's commitment to democracy would grow dimmer, experts say, if the military ever stepped in against Mr. Erdogan once he was in power — or if the lawsuit seeking to ban the party, not expected to be decided for several months, prevented it from taking office.

While it seems likely that Justice and Development will win the most votes, many questions remain: whether it will win outright; whether it will need to form a coalition; whether other parties will win enough votes to band together to force Justice and Development into the opposition.

The prospects for any coalition are murky. Both Justice and Development and the People's Republican Party, a center-left party created by Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk, have questioned their ability to govern together, though some experts say that Mr. Erdogan would be eager to join with such a mainstream party to reassure foreign investors as well as the military.

Despite regular prodding from the press, Mr. Erdogan has refused to say who in his own party he might support as prime minister.

But Mr. Turkmen said the election shows that Turkey is still "grappling with how to make democracy work." Mr. Erdogan's possible leadership may strip away some bans on religious expression, such as women wearing head scarves in schools, just as Turkish leaders have granted more political freedom to Kurds.

"We have a political life where taboos are disappearing," Mr. Turkmen said. "And they should be disappearing."

3. - AP - "Scared Turkish secularists flock to leftist party to face down":

ANKARA / 30 October 2002 / by Suzan Fraser

Aspiring actress Hulya Yildiz shouts over the music at a hip dance club, saying she fears that a political party with Islamic roots could take power and close down clubs where alcohol flows freely.

Turks vote in national elections Sunday, and polls show that the Justice and Development Party, which has its roots in Turkey's Islamic movement, has a strong lead about 30 percent in a field of 18 parties.

Its top rival is the secular, leftist Republican People's Party, with some 20 percent. Other parties are trailing near or below the 10 percent threshold required to enter parliament.

Some frightened secularists are flocking to the Republicans in hopes of blocking Justice and Development from taking power.

"We have to fight for this country," said Yildiz, who backs the Republicans. "We have no alternative."

Many Justice and Development leaders were part of earlier pro-Islamic parties, but they say they have changed and will promote a conservative and not a pro-Islamic agenda.

Many Turks, however, are unconvinced and fear that the party could try to roll back the country's strict secular laws which, for example, bar women who wear the Islamic-style headscarf from working in government offices.

The election divide reflects Turkey's perennial struggle between East and West, Islam and secularism, and the traditional poor and the Westernized elite.

A government led by former members of the Islamic movement could lead to enormous tensions with the fiercely secular military and courts at a moment when Turkey's economy is beginning to recover from recession and the United States is looking at a possible war in Iraq, Turkey's neighbor.

The military regards itself as the guardian of secularism, a founding principle of the Turkish Republic. It pressured a pro-Islamic government out of power in 1997.

But the battle is not clear cut.

Leaders of the Justice party say that they too are secular and are only looking to promote a program of social welfare.

Justice draws much of its support from the rural and urban poor who are suffering under Turkey's worst recession in decades. The economic slump has slashed incomes and left some 2 million more people unemployed in a country that already had high unemployment.

Supporters say they are attracted by the party's clean and dynamic image and the extensive social welfare programs run by earlier parties from the Islamic movement in neighborhoods they controlled.

Large numbers of voters as many as 30 percent according to some polls are still undecided, and a victory for Justice and Development is not certain.

The opposition is deeply divided among more than a dozen parties.

The largest of them is the Republican party, which was not in the departing government. Incumbent parties are plummeting in the polls, punished by angry voters for the recession. Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's party, for example, is not expected to win any seats in parliament.

Although the Republicans' leadership is not particularly popular, many see the party as the only way to stop the Justice party.

"The Republican party symbolizes the modern elite's search for a party to stand against the Justice and Development Party's rise," said Hursit Gunes, a commentator for Milliyet newspaper.

Many critics find Republican party leader Deniz Baykal's style aggressive and hold him responsible for divisions in the left.

Leftists will be voting for the Republican party "unwillingly, foot-draggingly, from a lack of choice," wrote Emin Colasan, a commentator for Hurriyet newspaper.

The Republicans captured 8.7 percent in the 1999 elections but are now polling more than twice that amount.

They received a boost from Kemal Dervis, the popular former economy minister who had left his job at the World Bank to devise a recovery plan for the Turkish economy.

The Republican Party, Turkey's oldest, was formed by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern, secular Turkey.

Yildiz, like many secularists, says she doubts that Justice party leaders have really become more moderate. Like many secularists, she fears that the party may have a secret Islamic agenda and may try to impose Islamic rules and challenge the foundations of the secular, Western state.

"Such a party should not come to power. It would be terrible," she said.

But Hazal Kiziltas, the wife of a retired government worker, sees it differently.

"We are a Muslim society and we have to protect our religion," Kiziltas said, explaining why she will vote for the Justice party.

Justice party leaders are honest, she says, and "they know us. They know that we are poor."

4. - Yeni Safak - "DEHAP’s march to the parliament and the meaning of the Istanbul meeting":

28 October 2002 / by Koray Duzgoren / translated by Mutlu Civiroglu and published by Kurdish Media

All predictions and polls show that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will pass the threshold in the November 3 elections.

In these polls there is a common prediction that the True Path Party (DYP) and perhaps the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and Young Party (GP) can force the threshold, but it is not clear whether these two parties can pass the threshold. Thus, one can come across very interesting and surprising results.

For example, the possibility of Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) entering the parliament and becoming the main opposition party.

Can such a thing happen? Why not? This is Turkey after all!

Let us assume that the AKP and the CHP built a coalition after the elections, as it is known Erdogan and Baykal gave messages that they were ready to form a coalition as a result of domestic and international expectations. In such a case, imagine that DEHAP is the 3rd party to enter the parliament. Won’t DEHAP, which is mostly composed of Kurds, be the main opposition party? What an interesting scenario, isn’t it?

The yesterday meeting of DEHAP has strengthen my idea which was always in my mind but failed to express for a long time. This meeting is regarded as the biggest among all meetings since the electoral propaganda activities started. Let us put the official 200,000 and organizer’s 400,000 a side and talk about some hundred thousand people. There must be a meaning of this huge crowd where nowadays gathering 10,000 people is seen as a big success in this election and propaganda era.

Despite the fact that they don’t have a charismatic leader, strong and experienced party organizations and media sup-port, there is a great excitement of elections and a strong wish for representation in the parliament among millions of Kurds. Furthermore, they are all focused on a specific purpose, putting all the paradoxes and differences a side. Their purpose is to be the equal citizens of this country and to be represented in the parliament as a proof of the Kurdish identity. In spite of those who don’t want to acknowledge this reality, they want to achieve it by democratic means be accepted as the founding partner of the republic and the inevitable part of this country, both in legal and political as-pects. For these reasons, supporters of the DEHAP Alliance seem excited and determined against the reluctant and indifferent supporters of other parties.

For these reasons, despite being out of this alliance some wise and clever intellectuals have declared by a common declaration that DEHAP entering the parliament will be very useful to the country. They are saying “ You don’t need to be a DEHAP member to vote for DEHAP”. I agree with this, you don’t need to be a DEHAP member or a Kurd to vote for DEHAP. It is enough to be from Turkey.

In my opinion, the main problem of Turkey is that people of Turkey who have differences couldn’t have this difference acknowledged and couldn’t be represented in state organs and in the parliament. Now, because of the mentioned rea-sons, it is important that DEHAP will break the chains in spite of the 10 % threshold.

Let’s come back to DEHAP’s Istanbul Meeting which consisted of great messages; I suppose there hasn’t been such a meeting held in Istanbul squares since 1980 coup.

It is very important to evaluate this meeting of hundreds thousands of people most of whom came together not in Di-yarbakir but in Istanbul. This meeting shows the unity of Diyarbakir and Istanbul, South East and West of Turkey. It’s also possible to see this excitement and determination of Kurds as an indicator of their wish to take part in the parlia-mentarian system and have a word in the country’s administration. This determination also provides an important op-portunity for Turkey to solve the Kurdish Question together with the Kurds. The crowds of DEHAP are conveying mes-sages not only to people of Turkey and those who arbitrary ruled this country according to their own wishes by denying all diversities and different identities, but also to Europeans and Western countries as well.

Turkey, can prepare in a more determined way with its Kurdish citizens. A parliament with DEHAP, can shorten the distance which Turkey will take in the full membership of the European Union. And the most important of all; a Turkey who brings consensus in-stead of tensions and problems and who respects its people’s Islamic sensitivities and Kurds’ own diversities and cul-ture can use its sources to welfare rather than “security”. Instead of prohibition and a fear the state can be a “law state” that respects and does not interfere in the diversities and identities of its citizens. An important process can begin in Turkey with its parliament where the Kurds are also represented.

Although, I might be criticized because of these opinions, this is what I think.

5. - Radikal - "`Biji DEHAP` in Istanbul":

28 October 2002 / by Celal Baslangic / translated by Mutlu Civiroglu and published by Kurdish Media

Even with the most pessimistic guess, there were at least 200,000 people in DEHAP’s Istanbul meeting. The 84 year old energetic man, Vedat Turkali told me ”Thank God, we passed all the dams (threshold)” when he could finally reached the stage after passing through the human torrent.

When the green-red dresses of Kurdish women got together with the feminists purple, red flags of socialists and yellow of DEHAP, there appeared a green, yellow, red and purple rainbow on the square of Istanbul. More than an election meeting, the victory of labor, peace and democracy was being celebrated with the peace doves being freed towards to the sky, Newroz Fires being lit, a bride and a groom came from the wedding hall and the popular music group Kardes Turkuler was singing the famous song “Burcak Tarlasi” (The Burcak Field) for the Kurdish women. Everybody’s hands had rose up becoming victory signs. That was not only referring to the victory of DEHAP but also its place on the voting note. (DEHAP is on the 2nd place of voting note in the November 3 Elections)

According to some it was 300,000

According to the most pessimistic estimation, there were 200,000 people in the square but the estimates were climbing up to 350,000. In our opinion, there were more than 250,000 people who came together under the torch of DEHAP. If you include the children who got lost in the meeting, probably the proportion was approaching 300,000.

When I could finally reached the stage with Vedat Turkali after passing through the human crowd strongly attached to each other, the 84 year old Vedat Turkali told me ”thank God, we passed all the dams (threshold)” Actually, the biggest curiosity of those who were observing the meeting was the answer of the question “whether DEHAP will pass the threshold or not””. Maybe, a party’s - which received 200,000 votes in the last election - organizing a meeting with participation of 250 - 300,000 people was making answering this question easier.

Former Chairman of the Labour Party (EMEP) Levent Tuzel was taking a democracy oath together with hundreds of thousands of people, Chairman of the Socialist Democracy Party SDP Akin Birdal was inviting his brothers who were members of Freedom and Solidarity Party (ODP) to unite their forces under the torch of DEHAP. Deputy chairman of the People’s Democracy Party (HADEP). A. Turan Demir was forwarding the messages from the people of Sirnak and Cizre to the Istanbul crowd, “there had been an earthquake for the DEHAP meeting in the “Republic of Sirnak”.

WHY DEHAP?

A few days ago, intellectuals, writers, artists and journalists organized a reception in Istanbul with the name of “ You don’t Need To Be a DEHAP Member To Vote For DEHAP”. They declared “My Vote Is For DEHAP for the honour of labor, permenency of peace and victory of democracy.” Vedat Turkali who made the opening speech of that night to 80-100 partipicants was making the last speech to hundreds of thousands people in DEHAP meeting. Master Turkali began his words with “I am Turkish” and finished his speech with “Biji DEHAP”. While he was leaving the square, he was saying. “I don’t know what I can contribute to DEHAP, however DEHAP gave me a strong hope for future”.

The people who came to the meeting in order to find an answer to their question, whether or not DEHAP will pass the threshold, left the square with a clear answer which was “Yes, DEHAP will pass the threshold”. Not only were hundreds of thousands of people making the victory sign with their hands but wrere also displaying posters of Ahmet Kaya, Yilmaz Guney, Deniz Gezmis and Nazim Hikmet.

6. - AFP - "Iraqi Kurd leader "certain" of US attack after Ramadan":

TEHRAN / 31 October 2002 / by Siavosh Ghazi

Iraqi Kurd leader Jalal Talabani said Thursday he was "certain" of a United States attack aimed at ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein after the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

"I think that an American attack is certain, but it will only take place after Ramadan," Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) leader Jalal Talabani told a small group of reporters in Tehran. This year the holy Muslim month of dawn to dusk fasting runs from November 6 to December 5.

Although Talabani said he was "against an invasion of Iraq by the American forces", he admitted that Iraq's armed opposition "is incapable of overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime without outside help."

"Foreign countries, the United States and why not Arab or European countries, could help us in getting rid of Saddam Hussein, including with military support," he said in the interview. Talabani arrived in Tehran on Monday for a series of meetings with other Iraqi opposition officials, including the head of the Shiite Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Ayatollah Mohammad-Baqir Hakim.

Iraqi opposition groups are currently preparing for a meeting of some 200 officials in Brussels scheduled for November 15-22, in which they hope to hammer out a common strategy and "provisonal government" for a post-Saddam Iraq.

Talabani said he had held several rounds of talks here on the future of Iraq with his "friend" Ayatollah Hakim, adding that the Iraqi Kurd and Shiite opposition would seek to reassure Iraq's Sunni Arabs, who have dominated the country since it was founded in 1920.

In the event of an attack on Saddam Hussein, Talabani predicted that "a takeover of power by opposition groups", aided by certain units of the Iraqi army, was a likely scenario. And he asserted that he believed the Iraqi army would not resort to the use of chemical arms, "because they know they would be judged for war crimes."

Talabani, who will leave for a visit to Syria on Friday, also played down European opposition to a US attack aimed at halting Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction programmes. "Not all European countries, notably Italy and Spain, are hostile. And you will see that when an American attack starts, they will side with the Americans," he said.

As for Iran, Talabani said he believed the Islamic republic would keep out of an eventual confrontation. "I told the Americans that Iran will stay neutral. The opposition groups who will take power after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein have friendly relations with Iran," he said.

"The future regime will be democratic and will have friendly relations with all countries. But it will be close to the United States because we need the Americans to reconstruct our country," the former Marxist guerilla said. The PUK shares control of the northern Iraqi Kurd enclave with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The enclave has been largely off-limits to Baghdad since 1991 and is protected by a US and British-enforced no-fly zone.

The KDP and PUK recently mended fences and earlier October the Kurdish parliament, meeting in its entirety for the first time since 1996, endorsed a 1998 US-brokered peace deal between them. Both parties have said they are not seeking independence for their region, and see a future Iraq as a pluralistic, democratic and federal entity.

Talabani said he recognised that any move towards independence would spark Turkish military intervention, and that the Kurds would not be able to count on any support from Iran or Syria. The PUK leader said that together, both factions could call on 100,000 peshmerga (Kurdish militia) fighters. He said the SCIRI could call on 10-15,000 troops.