23 October 2002

1. "Ocalan: The only way is to succeed!", The Kurdish Observer talked to KADEK Presidential Council member Osman Ocalan about the existing situation and possible consequences.

2. "Turkish FM to discuss EU, ISAF in Germany", Turkey's Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel on Wednesday left for a one-day working visit to Germany to discuss Ankara's bid to join the European Union and the future of the international security force in Afghanistan.

3. "Feature: Turkey -- the price of alliance", it was a classic get-rich-quick scheme, and it flourished right up until the Gulf War. By jury-rigging a gas tank five times the normal size underneath a small truck, and loading it up with potatoes, clever Kurds from Turkey's southeast accumulated small fortunes from the semi-legal oil trade with Iraq.

4. "Politician Detained for Speaking Kurdish", police in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast briefly detained a politician on Monday for speaking Kurdish while campaigning for next month's general election, an official working for him said.

5. "Turkey's Health Ministry preparing for refugees if U.S. strikes Iraq", Turkey's Health Ministry has stockpiled enough medicine to treat up to one million Iraqi refugees if the United States strikes neighboring Iraq, a news agency reported Tuesday.

6. "Do not create another Cyprus in Northern Iraq", I am anxious to know why it is feared that in a united Cyprus under the control of the UN, EU and the guarantor states the Turks would be massacred, writes Radikal's Columnist Erdal Guven


1. - Kurdish Observer - "Ocalan: The only way is to succeed!":

October 22, 2002 / by Nurdogan Aydogan

"Both the Kurdish Democratic Movementand socialist-democratic forces must resist to reactionism with all their might and keeping the historical importance of it in mind, and consider the way to succeed setting the will of the people into motion. On one hand DEHAP activists must work hard, on the other hand they must mobilize DEHAP's conscious sympathizers for electoral struggle."

We talked to KADEK Presidential Council member Osman Ocalan about the existing situation and possible consequences.

-Supreme Electoral Board (YSK) announced its qualification for DEHAP, but in spite of this Supreme Court Chief Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu indicted DEHAP. What would you like to say on the matter?

First of all we must say that parties of the establishment are on the final verge of vanishing. Political structure of the regime have lost its all societal support. It faces both marginalization and disintegration. It is an exhaustion. Economical crisis is on its peak, so is the political structure. Now labor, peace and democracy block is growing rapidly. There is no alternative other than the block. AKP that argues it is a new party has already made a force to rescue the regime. Moreover, AKP has not succeed to be other than a force in conflict with the regime. The final point for AKP will be in service of the regime. Another party is CHP. It is supported by a number of institutions of the establishment. Furthermore it is of a historical importance as far as its mission for the establishment of the existing regime is concerned. CHP has the mission to rescue the regime at a point of its disintegration.

We do not know the other parties but their chance to enter into the parliament is feeble. It is clear that the only force to be an alternative to the regime is the parties united in DEHAP. The only force to bring democratisation and equality is this alliance of the Democratic Kurdish Movement and socialist-democratic forces with its program and quality. And the reactionary section of regime is afraid of it. The aim of the regime is to strengthen CHP and help it come to power. When this is not succeeded, then AKP will be on the agenda. But DEHAP has begun to mess up all these ploys. Therefore Sabih Kanadoglu attacked on DEHAP. Their aim is to keep hesitant voters from turning to DEHAP. And there is embargo on media for DEHAP. Any of its meetings or activities can be seen on television. There is not any positive comment on media whereas all news that might break morale can be on headlines. Kanadoglu's attack and media's negligence are parallel. That is there is a serious repression on DEHAP. But we do not find it very odd. No regime has withdrawn from the stage silently although it has spent its life entirely. It shows more or less a resistance of course. In this sense Kanadoglu's and others' attacks are efforts of the existing regime to resist. But it is necessary for forces of democracy to break the resistance.

-What must the block do in order to succeed?

As it can be understood from the debates, DEHAP cannot limit itself with electoral struggle. Other parties make efforts to make the existing regime live. But the problem of Turkey to exceed it, not to make it live by establishing a democratic regime. Demands and efforts that do not exceed the efforts to make it live cannot yield positive results. The only force to develop democratisation with its program and quality is DEHAP. It is well known by the regime and they try to suppress it. It is all natural, no regime can leave the scene of history quietly and unobtrusively. It cannot be expected from especially a regime that has institutionalised itself for 80 years. Forces within DEHAP must see this reality. They must keep the serious barriers in the struggle in mind. But DEHAP has still a handicapped approach. It has not exceeded being a force that struggles in normal conditions.

The process has its extra-ordinary peculiarities. Reactionary forces will try to keep DEHAP from succeeding. There will be legal, material, political and moral barriers. The regime will continue its attacks on alternative forces in order to live. The only way is to resist against the attacks. Every attack must be replied by a new thrust. Either you submit to these attacks (and this can be accepted under no conditions) or you raise your struggle. DEHAP has some weakness on the matter. It does not reply the attacks appropriately. But there are possibilities for DEHAP to counter the attacks. First of all it can set all its cadres into motion. Ten thousands of people can be set into motion. It will be an important reply. More importantly, the struggle must be claimed by masses. Their efforts achieve to convince hesitant voters. That is the answer. Conscious masses working for elections.

If DEHAP succeeds to mobilize its massive strength, it will neutralize the attacks and bring about the big democratic potential. Both the Kurdish Democratic Movement and socialist-democratic forces must resist to reactionism with all their might and keeping the historical importance of it in mind, and consider the way to succeed setting the will of the people into motion. On one hand DEHAP activists must work hard, on the other hand they must mobilize DEHAP's conscious sympathizers for electoral struggle."

-"All leftist groups must participate in the block"

Now a democratic regime is unavoidable in Turkey. Making it true was the mission of leftist democratic forces more than everyone. But leftist forces did not go along with the role they must play. The marginalization of left was the main cause that kept them from being an alternative. Therefore the only force representing the left was the Kurdish democratic movement. The movement has shown its ability to grow steadily as well as resisting to all repressions. But its strength was not enough to bring democratisation. It was important to include all the other democratic, socialist forces. But the left did not trust itself, did not shown courage to enter into the process. The problem became a knot that refused to become undone. Nevertheless the elections offered such opportunities to undo it.

The Kurdish democratic movement has seen the necessity of an alternative to the existing regime and begun to search alliances. Its efforts has yielded positive results although it was not possible to unite all the leftist forces within the block. Some forces has been insistent on their present situation. But the block has expanded steadily and therefore the leftist groups that has run away from their historical responsibilities under lame pretexts are now in a deep regret. It seems that if they participated in the block, it would gain more strength. But for us it is not too late. They can fulfil their historical responsibilities. They can contribute to the activities.

What is to be done is for them to support the block. Their participation in the electoral activities will be the only coherent stance. Nevertheless there are still wrongs. ODP representatives express their regret about not-disqualified DEHAP. Sema Piskinsut has stated that she will file an objection petition for the matter whereas a responsible behaviour for her would be support DEHAP. It might arise from their regret. But regret should cause a unity, not a conflict. For us a big victory will not only strengthen the parties within the block but create opportunities for the left to expand. Moreover leftist forces represented in the parliament and other not represented will form an alliance in the future. It will be both necessary and unavoidable.

Here the problem is to continue democratisation. The problem is its realization relying on an alliance of all leftist forces in and out. Therefore the labor, peace and democracy block should include other leftist groups after the elections and assume the mission of democratisation. There is no other emergence for Turkey. The only way to solve the problems is a democratic struggle relying on the unity of left.


2. - AFP - "Turkish FM to discuss EU, ISAF in Germany":

ANKARA / 23 October 2002

Turkey's Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel on Wednesday left for a one-day working visit to Germany to discuss Ankara's bid to join the European Union and the future of the international security force in Afghanistan.
"We will touch upon many issues with my German collegue (Joschka) Fischer among them Turkey's ties with the European Union and the upcoming Copenhagen summit," Gurel told reporters at the airport before his departure.
Turkey wants the pan-European bloc to set a date for the start of accession talks at the Copenhagen summit in December, warning that a decision to the contrary would strain bilateral ties.
A European Union Commission progress report issued ealier this month suggested Ankara had not yet fulfilled the EU' political criteria.
Another issue to dominate the talks was Germany's joint bid with the Netherlands to take command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, which is currently led by Turkey, Gurel said.
Turkey has been commanding the ISAF since June and has said that it will not agree to an extension when its six-month mandate ends in December.
The Turkish minister added that Turkish-German ties and "developments expected to take place in the region", namely Iraq, would also be part of the talks.
Turkey, the only Muslim member of NATO, opposes any US military moves against its southern neighbour Iraq, fearing the economic and political fallout of such a war.
Germany's ties with the United States soured last month when Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder took a strong anti-war line in his election campaign and pledged not to involve German troops in a US-led war in Iraq.


3. - UPI - "Feature: Turkey -- the price of alliance":

BAYKAN, Turkey / 22 Oct. 2002

By Christopher Deliso

It was a classic get-rich-quick scheme, and it flourished right up until the Gulf War. By jury-rigging a gas tank five times the normal size underneath a small truck, and loading it up with potatoes, clever Kurds from Turkey's southeast accumulated small fortunes from the semi-legal oil trade with Iraq.

One erstwhile entrepreneur from the town of Baykan explained it thus: "The potatoes were just decoys to get past customs -- we always took a loss on them. But the cheap prices at Iraqi gas stations more than made up for it. We could buy gas for 20 cents a liter, and resell it in Turkey for almost five times the price."

After the invasion of Kuwait brought sanctions against Saddam, the industry collapsed. Widespread bankruptcies occurred as the would-be oilmen -- confident of an eternal boom -- found their assets overextended.

The fallout has continued since. The former Baykan baron agrees, pointing out some of the local workers said: "See that man in the tailor shop, or that other one cutting hair? They're probably making around $5 a day now -- before the Gulf War they were making $500 a day."

While admittedly a microcosmic and not completely representative view of the bigger economic picture, this vignette demonstrates why Turkey is wary of another Iraq war.

Unique as a secular Muslim state, Turkey is essential for Washington. Its strategic geography -- bordering Greece, Bulgaria, the Caucasus countries, Iraq, Iran and Syria, and set across the water from Ukraine and Russia -- has made it America's single-most important ally. Turkey receives huge support, especially in the military sector, from the United States. The country also benefits from enormous largesse from the International Monetary Fund. The Turkish view of Kurds as "terrorists" and the denial of a 1915 Armenian "genocide" are supported, the former overtly and the latter tacitly, in Washington.

Yet nothing comes for free. As the United States appears irrevocably headed for war against Iraq, Turkey is facing immense pressure not only to comply, but to remain a shining example of one of a place where good (i.e., secular) Muslims live.

However, the Turks are afraid, and for good reason. Early elections are fast approaching (Nov. 3), and dissatisfaction with the economy -- the prime complaint of the average Turk -- has benefited the aspiring Islamist party, while causing most of President Bulent Ecevit's leading statesmen to resign.

The most portentous resignation was that of finance minister and respected economic reformer Kemal Dervis. Now, Dervis and his pro-Western "dream team" hope to resurrect Turkey's economic reform initiative after the November elections.

A ranking Turkish economics official told United Press International that "no matter what, they (the Islamists) can't change the system ... it is not the election that we are concerned about. That won't affect the Turkish economy. We are afraid only of the movement against Iraq."

The Turkish leadership has been forced to walk an increasingly fine line between its political allegiance to the West, its social ties with the Arab world, and its own economic survival. The beleaguered Ecevit warned again last week that Turkey would not tolerate an independent Kurdistan. UPI recorded the president as claiming the Americans "are actually steering" the secessionist spirit in Iraq.

But if the second Gulf War goes anything like the first, it will be Turkey's already pained economy that suffers most.

In 1990, U.N.-imposed sanctions meant the closure of an oil pipeline that had given Turkey $280 million annually in transport royalties and handling fees. Iraq was also one of Turkey's largest trade partners. Citing Turkish officials, the APS Oil Review claimed that by 1999 "losses, including lost trade and business opportunities, were worth over $65 billion."

In a lukewarm compensatory gesture, the Saudis (who began supplying Turkey's oil needs) offered $1.1 billion of free crude oil. However, they also got Turkey to sign a contract for the import of 8.5 million tons annually with Saudi Aramco.

Turkey was promised cash from the West as further compensation. Instead, the country was beset with an ever-growing pile of loans, which have made it the IMF's largest-ever debtor. It's no wonder why there's little appetite in Ankara for another shot at Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

War in Iraq would also affect Turkey's vital tourism industry. Hotel and bar owners as far away as Bodrum (on the Aegean coast) are concerned. The Irish manager of one popular pub there told UPI that "if tourists hear 'Turkey is next to Iraq,' they will simply avoid the whole country -- even though we are nowhere near Iraq, and in no danger whatsoever."

Indeed, even on its map of Turkey, the Avis Car Rental company in Van discreetly covers neighboring Iraq over with the map legend. In pretending that Iraq doesn't exist, the company hopes that the tourists will, too.

Whether they be Turkish or Kurdish, urban or rural-based, business leaders increasingly share the same view: a war against Iraq will damage Turkey's investment climate, just as the country has worked to enhance its package of incentives for foreign investors and incorporators.

As a pre-condition for accession talks with the European Union, Turkey has been pressured to give more rights to its large Kurdish minority. While reforms are proceeding, Ankara has also promised a strong response should Iraqi Kurds try to create an independent state, which it fears may inspire Turkish Kurds to secede.

The international oil companies realize Turkey's oil reserves are dwindling. The oilmen have therefore set their sights on an obscure "petroleum basin" existing in the multi-national Hakkari Basin -- the triangle of instability connecting Turkey, Iran and Iraq, and populated by Kurds. Curiously enough, the richest oilfields seem to be just across the border, in Iraq.

Further, Turkey's national oil company, TUPRAS (which owns 86 percent of Turkey's refining capacity), has its refinery operations centered in a Kurd-majority town (Batman). Indeed, an independent Kurdistan is definitely low on Ankara's wish list.

Now, Turkey is finding it tough to remain loyal. Yet the United States does occasionally return a favor.

Recently, Washington protested that Turkey's EU application was being unjustly hindered by shortsighted Eurocrats who had cited, along with human rights concerns, Turkey's economic shortcomings.

It is rather unrealistic, however, to expect EU directives to harmonize dutifully with American interests. After all, it wouldn't be the Americans who would have to absorb the shock of a volatile Turkish economy.

Ironically, should Turkey's economy become damaged after pleasing Bush and his allies, this will only exacerbate European opposition, on economic grounds, to Turkey's membership in the EU. Yet should Ankara's support for Gulf War II be perceived as faint-hearted, life may get a lot more complicated -- in the form of an independent, American-aided Kurdistan. Either way, the price of alliance is steep.


4. - Reuters - "Politician Detained for Speaking Kurdish":

DIYARBAKIR, Turkey / 22 October 2002

Police in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast briefly detained a politician on Monday for speaking Kurdish while campaigning for next month's general election, an official working for him said.

Abdulmelik Firat, who is running as an independent candidate in the November 3 parliamentary elections, was released later in the day after appearing before a judge who ruled he had committed no crime, his aide Fehmi Demir said.

Firat had only greeted voters in Kurdish during a campaign stop in Lice on Monday, Demir said.

Turkish election laws bar politicians from campaigning in languages other than Turkish.

Turkey recently lifted bans on broadcasting and education in Kurdish in a bid to meet European Union human rights standards.

Ankara has been pressing the European Union to set a date for the start of negotiations on Turkish membership, but the bloc has said Ankara must prove it is implementing human rights reforms before it can start membership talks.

Firat is a well-known politician in the regional capital Diyarbakir and is expected to attract a large number of votes as an independent candidate.

The pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) is also expected to poll well in Diyarbakir.


5. - Associated Press - "Turkey's Health Ministry preparing for refugees if U.S. strikes Iraq":

ANKARA / 22 October 2002

Turkey's Health Ministry has stockpiled enough medicine to treat up to one million Iraqi refugees if the United States strikes neighboring Iraq, a news agency reported Tuesday.

Some 500,000 Iraqi Kurds fled their homes for Turkey after Iraqi forces crushed a Kurdish uprising following the 1991 Gulf War. The flood of refugees sparked a humanitarian crisis. Turkey fears that any new fighting could again spark an exodus of Kurds.

The Health Ministry said it has stockpiled enough syringes and medicine to treat any refugees, the Anatolia news agency reported. Earlier, officials said they were preparing tents, food and blankets for refugees.

Ministry officials are concerned about the spread of diseases in any refugee camps and are preparing to provide vaccinations against epidemic diseases, such as polio , Anatolia said.

Turkey has said it opposes U.S. strikes to depose Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, fearing they could destabilize the region or hurt its frail economy.


6. - Cyprus PIO - "Do not create another Cyprus in Northern Iraq":

22 October 2002

Columnist Erdal Guven in RADIKAL calls on Turkey not to create another Cyprus problem in Northern Iraq and writes as a follow up of his article in Radikal (18/10/02):
"In my article on Friday I have defended the fact that Turkey does not have a Middle East Policy and criticized Turkey's stance in Cyprus and in Northern Iraq". He then publishes a letter sent to him by one of his readers regarding the subject. Mrs Ayse Hur wrote: "Maybe we have to ask openly the following: Is Halepje less tragic than the killing (in bathroom) in Cyprus? Or if we start charting policies built on tragedies who will be the one on the top of other? I am anxious to know why it is feared that in a united Cyprus under the control of the UN, EU and the guarantor states the Turks would be massacred".

"I am too", Guven says and adds:

No one will object when a country, because of its cultural ties, would try to protect and defend its kinsmen living in another country. However, it would be different if the issue turns into a chauvinistic and irredentist action. With the same token, according to international law a country has the right to take preventive action beyond its national boundaries, if its national interests are endangered. But, if this action turns into an occupation and annexation then the situation would be different.

For example: Yes, Turkey intervened in Cyprus using its right to intervention stipulated under the Treaty of Guarantee. This was both a lawful and legitimate intervention. However, there is a point that those who express the official Turkish position on the Cyprus issue evade deliberately; the said right has been given to Turkey to restore the constitutional order in the Island and not to change it. Turkey with its second intervention overstepped legal boundaries let alone the legitimacy. This is the underlying basic reason that the entity in Cyprus is unable to get acceptance by the international law.

As far as I am concerned Turkey is threading in Northern Iraq on a very thin line.

For goodness sake please do not create another Cyprus (problem)!"