17 October 2002

1. "Turkish prosecutor accuses Kurdish party of falsifying documents", Turkey's top prosecutor on Wednesday accused the sole Kurdish party running in next month's elections of falsifying documents to qualify for the poll, the Anatolia news agency reported. Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu's move came a day after his previous demand to disqualify the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) from the November 3 elections was turned down by the electoral board.

2. "KADEK: War provocation", KADEK Presidential Council belied the claims of the Turkish media that KADEKestablished a Kurdish government-in-exile, warning that they tried to bring the war into the agenda again in order to keep forces of democracy under the DEHAP flag from succeeding.

3. "Turkey faces an Islamic challenge", an Islamically influenced party is expected to win 30 percent of the vote in Turkey's Nov. 3 elections.

4. "Europe's moment of truth", some in Brussels hope Turkey will never join the EU.

5. "Envoy: US would like to see EU set date for Turkey's EU entry talks", the United States would like to see a date set for Turkish European Union (news - web sites) entry negotiations, the American ambassador to the EU said Wednesday.

6. "IMF to hold off payments to Turkey until after November elections", Turkey still has work to do to fulfill conditions required for the release of a further 1.6 billion dollars in loans and the International Monetary Fund will take no decision on the issue until after the November 3 elections, a senior IMF official said here Wednesday.

1. - AFP - "Turkish prosecutor accuses Kurdish party of falsifying documents":

ANKARA / 16 October 2002

Turkey's top prosecutor on Wednesday accused the sole Kurdish party running in next month's elections of falsifying documents to qualify for the poll, the Anatolia news agency reported. Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu's move came a day after his previous demand to disqualify the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) from the November 3 elections was turned down by the electoral board.

Kanadoglu on Wednesday charged in a written statement, carried by Anatolia, that DEHAP members had "falsified official documents" concerning its overall national representation in order to be allowed to stand in the elections. Under Turkish law, a political party needs to operate offices in at least 41 of Turkey's 81 provinces, at least six months before the poll, to be able to field candidates. Official documents obtained from police and local authorities "show that DEHAP had fully-organized offices in only six provinces," the prosecutor said.

He asked the Ankara prosecutor's office to investigate the claims. Under Turkish law, the chief prosecutor cannot launch investigation into minor offenses such as falsification of documents but he can order junior prosecutors to take up the matter. Kanadoglu's move however has no chance of preventing the party from running in the November poll as the electoral board's decision upholding DEHAP's election bid was final.

DEHAP is the only pro-Kurdish party to run in the election after the country's main Kurdish party, the People's Democracy Party (HADEP), withdrew from the race on fears it might be banned for alleged links with Kurdish rebels.

Under a deal between the parties, HADEP teamed up with DEHAP, its sister organization set up in 1997, and two other minor left-wing groups, to run in the November poll. Last week, the PKK, a Kurdish guerrilla group that fought for self-rule in southeast Turkey warned of a new war if Ankara banned DEHAP from the elections.

2. - Kurdish Observer - "KADEK: War provocation":

KADEK Presidential Council belied the claims of the Turkish media that KADEK established a Kurdish government-in-exile, warning that they tried to bring the war into the agenda again in order to keep forces of democracy under the DEHAP flag from succeeding.

MHA/FRANKFURT / 16 October 2002

Osman Ocalan, member of KADEK Presidential Council, participated by telephone in the news program on Medya TV and stated that they had neither an initiative nor plans to establish a government-in-exile. A number of channels including CNN-Turk have argued that KADEK has been making preparations for war against Turkey and trying to establish a government-in-exile.

“Such news are altogether figments of imagination” said Ocalan. The Kurdish leader reacted to the news, calling on the media not to provoke war but to contribute to solution. Ocalan continued to say the following: Some of the groups within the Turkish ruling elite try to change the agenda in order to keep forces of democracy united under the DEHAP flag from being successful. They make efforts to bring the war into the agenda. And these efforts depend on false information supposedly coming from the KADEK Presidential Council. I emphasize clearly: The Presidential Council has not any scenario to establish a government-in-exile nor any such initiative. Such decision has not been taken. The Kurdish people must improve its democratic organization everywhere. KADEK supports unity. Such a line does not need a separate government either in home or in foreign lands. We want for Turkey to be democratised. Our strategic approach is a parliament elected by free elections and a democracy program. Therefore we consider the elections extremely important. For us representation of the will of the Kurdish people in the parliament is of vital importance.”

Peace, not war

Emphasizing that KADEK had been trying to make a solution possible by taking over PKK’s legacy, Ocalan said with words to the effect: “As a requirement of our line, we want peace, not war with Turkey. We show it at every opportunity. We say that only in case of an attack against us we will defend us. We do not place guerrilla forces within the borders of Turkey, nor make preparations for war. On the contrary reactionary forces that do not support democratisation resort to war provocation. The Turkish media has launched a similar campaign. We say this: War barons have begun to act. They want wreak carnage in the Middle East. They are preparing to make an operation on South Kurdistan. They try to make KADEK a tool for it. KADEK will not be a tool. Our call to Turkey is peace, not war.”

KNK: Ploys of war barons

Yasar Kaya, member of Kurdistan National Congress (KNK) Presidential Council, declared the news of government-in-exile to be false, saying the following: “All these are ploys of war provoking groups that do not want the Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood. Kurds do not want war. Do not point to the way towards mountains.”

Kaya, in a statement on behalf of KNK, continued with words to the effect: “KNK does not have any plans to establish a government-in-exile. Such news are said with an aim in mind at such a period. It deserves thinking. Deep state tries to manipulate the public by such methods in order to attack against Kurds.” Underscoring that there were important developments in the Middle East and South Kurdistan, Kaya added the following: “Iraq is an independent state whose borders are determined. And Kurds have a federal system since the Gulf War. Now today they strengthen the system. It is absurd to raise hell about it.”

3. - The Christian Sience Monitor - "Turkey faces an Islamic challenge":

An Islamically influenced party is expected to win 30 percent of the vote in Turkey's Nov. 3 elections

ISTANBUL / 16 October 2002 / by Ilene R. Prusher

Turkish elections are just over three weeks away, and the country's hottest politician is ... not even in the race.

Not officially, anyway. Last month, an electoral board ruled that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the Islamically oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP), was ineligible to run because he was convicted of sedition in 1998.

But Mr. Erdogan's meteoric rise to popularity does not appear to be losing steam. On the contrary, the party he founded last year on the ashes of the Islamist Welfare Party, disbanded in 1997 by Turkey's secular establishment, seems only to have gained supporters since the Supreme Electoral Board ruled he was unqualified to run.

The decision to ban Erdogan and three other controversial figures from running for office comes at a particularly sensitive moment – a time when Turks are reeling from an economic crisis, trying to win entry into the EU, and grappling with Washington's plans to attack their neighbor, Iraq.

The US will need Turkey, a NATO ally, for both political support and the use of air bases for a strike against Iraq. But popular backing here for a war against Iraq is almost nonexistent – and a government run by the AKP looks likely to be even less inclined to support US action.

Erdogan, charismatic and not yet 50, stands out among other politicians: Average Turks see him and the party he built as clean, conservative, and concerned with the little guy. He says he is now focused on reforming the country's ailing economy and winning a place for Turkey in the European Union (EU). But his conviction four years ago stemmed from a rally at which he spoke with jihad-type undertones. He read from a poem which included the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers."

Now, Erdogan sits at the helm of the AKP, which pollsters predict will be the big winner next month, raking in about 30 percent of the vote – up from about 25 percent when Erdogan was actually in the race.

But what role Erdogan will play is a mystery that people around Turkey are trying to decipher.

"The problems are going to start from Minute One, because as head of party and as a shadow prime minister, Erdogan will have to play this game of someone else running the government," says Dr. Ilter Turan, a political science professor at Istanbul Bilgi University.

A number of issues have propelled Ergodan's party toward the top. Foremost among them are the state secularism that some feel has gone too far – such as banning women in Muslim headscarves from official government offices and universities. Moreover, middle-of-the-roaders and people fed up with older political parties may be turning to AKP precisely because the ban on Erdogan's candidacy has given him an aura of a beleaguered underdog.

And, unlike some of Turkey's parties that have been built around the magnetism of one leader and by wearing the mantle of Islam, AKP has far more than Erdogan behind it. "This is a party with a whole leadership cadre – one man does not mean the end of the party," adds Turan. "They are well-organized and they know how to reach the masses."

When Motherland, a pro-business party, has a $1000-a-head fundraising dinner at the Sheraton, he points out, the AKP has a picnic with grilled kebabs. More than any other, the party has built up a reputation for helping the struggling working class.

AKP and their predecessors in the Welfare Party, for example, have made a tradition of organizing mass circumcision parties and group weddings for people who cannot afford to have a party that dignifies the occasion.

Semra Senturk, going from poor to poorer in Turkey's recent economic crisis, could never have afforded to throw a big bash for her 8-year-old son's circumcision this summer. But thanks to Islamist politicians who started holding such events free of cost, municipalities around Istanbul now provide the service.

As such, voters like Mrs. Senturk are tilting heavily in favor of the AKP.

"I just want to give them a chance. I trust Erdogan. He was very good when he was the mayor," says Senturk, as her son – one of 270 boys who benefited from the district's mass circumcision ceremony this summer – peeks around the doorway with his cousin. As she stands at the door of her home, a partly subterranean slice of painted cement wedged into the tight line of ramshackle rowhouses that fill the Kustape neighborhood of Turkey's capital, she clutches a spray bottle of cleaning fluid in her daily fight to beat back poverty's grime.

"We've already seen what the other politicians have done," she sighs, "which is nothing."

Among those who have joined the list of AKP's top candidates for election include economic reformers, people who want Turkey to be integrated into the European Union, and women who don't wear Islamic headscarves, AKP leaders are quick to point out.

"We established a new political party. Definitely we are trying to be good Muslims, because we believe in that, but that is on an individual level," says Abdullah Gul, the party's deputy chairman and the man most likely to serve as prime minister while Erdogan wields power from behind the scenes. The idea of having a more Islamic nature to public life in Turkey is something "we think is not realistic anymore," he adds.

AKP leaders say they would prefer to be known as a party which will fight corruption, heal Turkey's ailing economy, and help guide it into the European Union, which it sees, in part, as its ticket to greater freedom of religious expression. One group of women waiting outside a local council office on a recent afternoon to make sure they were registered to vote say they plan to vote for the AKP to end discrimination against religious women. They wear headscarves, which are not allowed in government offices or universities.

"I have a daughter who is 10 years old, and I have to send her to religious education secretly," says Cevriye Carkci. "We have to send her to an unofficial school. If we are caught, they will shut it down," she says.

Erdogan won't be forced to wait in the wings forever. After the elections, a parliament dominated by the AKP could vote to change the law that has allowed the election board to keep Erdogan from running. By next February, analysts say, they could call new elections that would allow Erdogan to be prime minister.

"So what they say is, once the parliament convenes, they want to change the Constitution," says Ilnur Cevik, the editor of the Turkish Daily News in Ankara.

"He says he is the hero of the 'silent millions,' " says Cevik. "If he is not the prime minister, it will be awkward."

4. - BBC - "Europe's moment of truth":

Some in Brussels hope Turkey will never join the EU

BRUSSELS / 16 October 2002 / by Oana Lungescu

As the European Union prepares to admit 10 new countries in an unprecedented expansion, it faces the moment of truth in relations with the longest-standing candidate, Turkey.

In an interview with the Belgian daily Le Soir this week, the EU enlargement commissioner Guenter Verheugen said a date for Turkey joining the EU remained an open question.

"Bulgaria and Romania, in 2007 perhaps," Mr Verheugen is quoted as saying. "After that, there are only question marks. Turkey? The Balkans? After that it will be finished for a while."

The European Commission upset Turkey with its latest recommendations - to be put to heads of state at a summit in Brussels next week - that no date be set for beginning membership talks with Ankara.

The commission's report welcomes Turkey's recent abolition of the death penalty, and the new language and cultural rights extended to the Kurds, but says the country still fails to meet the political criteria for entry.

Paradoxically, given the two countries' troubled history, Greece has suddenly emerged as Turkey's biggest champion within the EU.

As Ankara expressed its disappointment with the report, Greek Foreign Minister George Papndreou telephoned hisTurkish counterpart, Sukru Sina Gurel, to pledge his support for a "positive message" to be sent to Turkey at the EU's December summit in Copenhagen.

But despite Greece's desire to make a grand political gesture to Turkey, diplomats say that the most the Copenhagen summit will be able to offer Ankara is a "date for a date" at which membership talks might begin.

Apart from Greece, Britain and, more discreetly, Italy, are the only other EU members supporting this idea.

A senior British diplomat pointed to Turkey's key strategic position which, he said, may become even more important in the next few months.

As talk of a war against Iraq intensifies, the United States has also been pressing EU leaders to give Turkey the green light, in view of its pivotal position in Nato. Officials said the commission's report showed a "lack of respect" to the Turks.

This has not gone down well in Brussels.

"This is not like Nato expansion," one diplomat said, "it's a decision that goes far beyond foreign policy considerations."

"The Americans just don't understand the complexities of EU membership," said another. "Admitting Turkey now would be like Mexico becoming the 51st state of the US overnight."

The commission's director general for enlargement, Eneko Landaburu, points out that the main objection to Turkey is political, not cultural or religious.

"The EU is not a club of Christian peoples," Mr Landaburu says. "If a country shares the EU's democratic values and is European, there should be no obstacle to it joining the family."

But there are some dissenting voices even within the European Commission.

During a closed door debate on enlargement, one commissioner pointed out that only 4% of Turkey's territory actually lies in Europe.

Second thoughts

We should think of the limits of Europe, the commissioner said, comparing the Bosphorus with the Straits of Gibraltar.

Privately, EU officials admit to second thoughts about Turkey when they look at the map. Is the EU ready to have a border with countries like Iraq and Syria, one asked, especially when immigration is such a sensitive issue?

And what about Turkey's 68 million people? Is the EU ready to have Turkey as itss second-biggest member after Germany, or even the biggest sometime around 2025?

In August, EU foreign ministers held a three-hour debate on enlargement at a meeting in the Danish city of Elsinore, mostly concentrating on Turkey.

Brain-storming

"It was a brain-storming session on the current situation," a diplomat said. "Everyone agreed we must keep all options open."

The optimistic scenario is that, by the end of the year, a new, reformist Turkish government will help achieve a settlement on Cyprus and solve a dispute with Greece that is currently blocking agreement on the EU's Rapid Reaction Force. That would pave the way for a clear political signal to Turkey at the EU summit in Copenhagen.

The pessimistic scenario is that the EU will invite a divided Cyprus to be one of its 10 new members, prompting Ankara to make good a threat to annex the northern part of the island. The Copenhagen summit would then mark the start of a serious crisis with Turkey.

And there is a third scenario. Some in Brussels hope that, in the end, Turkey will get tired of waiting and opt for stronger ties with the EU, short of full membership.

Turkish sources say that's just wishful thinking.

5. - AP - "Envoy: US would like to see EU set date for Turkey's EU entry talks":

ATHENS / 16 October 2002

The United States would like to see a date set for Turkish European Union (news - web sites) entry negotiations, the American ambassador to the EU said Wednesday.

Rockwell Schnabel also said the U.S. supports the Greek position, which favors giving Turkey a date for entry talks at an EU summit in December.

"The U.S. favors the EU giving Turkey a date to start its negotiations for the country's accession into the 15-member bloc," Schnabel said.

Schnabel said a top priority for Greece during its upcoming EU presidency will be the issue of enlargement. Greece takes over the six-month EU presidency on Jan. 1, and Schnabel met with senior government officials to discuss Greek objectives.

An EU Commission report last week recommended 10 candidate countries — including the divided island of Cyprus — be invited to join in 2004, but failed to set a start date for Turkey's negotiations.

The report cited lingering shortcomings in human rights.

"In the past, the EU has started negotiations with countries that didn't meet all EU accession criteria especially with regard to fulfilling the democratic models of existing EU members," Schnabel said without elaborating.

Schnabel said the United States was confident that Cyprus would join the EU despite the failure so far to find a solution to the division of the eastern Mediterranean island.

In 1974 Turkish troops invaded and occupied the northern third of Cyprus, which later declared itself a separate state. United Nations (news - web sites)-sponsored reunification talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots have failed to resolve the issue.

"The U.S. is therefore assuming that Cyprus will be allowed into the E.U. regardless of the division problem," Schnabel said. "The EU seems to be moving forward regarding Cyprus' entry while at the same time addressing the division issue with Turkey."

6. - AFP - "IMF to hold off payments to Turkey until after November elections":

ANKARA / 16 October 2002

Turkey still has work to do to fulfill conditions required for the release of a further 1.6 billion dollars in loans and the International Monetary Fund will take no decision on the issue until after the November 3 elections, a senior IMF official said here Wednesday.

"There's a good basis for expecting that an (IMF) executive board meeting can be held reasonably soon after the elections," the head of the International Monetary Fund's Turkey desk, Juha Kahkonen, told reporters after two weeks of talks with Turkish officials.

"The timing of completion depends on when the conditions are met and good progress has been made towards meeting the conditions, but we are not there yet," he said. The 1.6-billion-dollar tranche is part of a 16-billion-dollar loan the IMF has allocated for Turkey to battle a severe economic crisis that broke last year. Conditions for the loan include strict reforms.

The IMF has already released anout 12.5 billion dollars. Kahkonen said the IMF expected further efforts from Ankara in cutting jobs at state enterprises, outlining a privatization plan for the state tobacco company TEKEL as well as draft proposals for tax reforms and bankrupcy regulations. He also cautioned against loosening fiscal policies.

"We have seen some pressure on the fiscal side recently, but we are pleased authorities have agreed to take measures in the coming weeks, which will keep -- if fully implemented -- the fiscal program on track," Kahkonen said. Measures aimed at boosting growth and reducing inflation had produced results beyond expectations, enabling Ankara to revise upwards its growth target for 2002 from three to four percent, he said.

"The macro-economic targets for this year will be met or even exceeded," Kahkonen said. "Inflation is also well on track to be below the 35 percent target for the year," he added. The IMF official signalled that the Fund expected the new government which will emerge from the elections to stick to the economic program. "We are confident that also in the period after the elections the current strategy offers the best way for Turkey to achieve rapid sustained growth," he said.

Turkey's economy contracted by 9.4 percent last year. The economy had just started to improve when a political crisis rocked the coalition government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit in the summer, prompting parliament to call early elections for November. The front-runner in the polls, the opposition Justice and Development Party, is eyed with suspicion by the fragile financial markets which point to its inexperience in governance.