11 October 2002
2. "Turkish Support May Be Illusory", the road to Baghdad runs through Turkey. As one of Washington's strongest political and military allies in the region, Turkey seems to be the only one standing firm with the U.S. in offering its airspace and territory to launch an attack on Iraq.
3. "Kurdish guerrillas threaten new war against Turkey if banned from poll", a Kurdish guerrilla group that for 15 years fought for self-rule in southeast Turkey warned of new war if Ankara bans a pro-Kurdish political party from taking part in November 3 elections, a pro-Kurdish news agency said in a dispatch received by AFP.
4. "EU: Hard To Calculate Turkey's Chances Of Joining Anytime Soon", whatever their chagrin in private, Turkish leaders are expressing optimism about the prospects for eventual membership in the European Union. That's despite the European Commission's progress report, which says Turkey is not yet ready to open membership negotiations. But Turkey's real chances of joining the EU anytime soon remain hard to calculate.
5. "Sezer says EU report doesn't give a vision", uneasy with the progress report, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit declares Turkey will not discuss any alternative to membership to the EU
6. "Several hundred Turkish troops in northern Iraq: minister", Turkey is keeping "several hundred" soldiers in neighboring northern Iraq, a mainly Kurdish area outside the control of the central Iraqi government, to protect its regional security interests, Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel said in an interview with AFP Thursday.
1. - AFP - "Turkey vows no concession over Cyprus to get EU membership":
ANKARA / 11 October 2002
by Hande Culpan
Turkey will make no concessions over the divided island of Cyprus
to win a date for opening its own European Union membership talks,
Turkey's Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel said on Friday.
"There's a wrong idea making the rounds here according to which
Turkey will give way over Cyprus in order to get a date from the EU.
Such an expectation is fundamentally flawed," Gurel told a conference
on the Cyprus issue.
He was speaking after the European Commission, the EU's executive
arm, on Wednesday offered membership for 10 candidate countries, including
Cyprus, but
snubbed Turkey on its demand for a firm date for the opening of accession
talks.
The commission said in its report that the 28-year-old division of
Cyprus was not an obstacle for the island's prospective membership.It
also called on Turkey to increase its efforts to help Turkish and
Greek Cypriots reach agreement in their ongoing peace talks.
The strategic eastern Mediterranean island has been divided along
ethnic lines since 1974 when Turkey invaded its northern part in response
to an Athens-engineered military coup in Nicosia aimed at uniting
the island with Greece.
Gurel said the European Union had made a "chain of mistakes"
since 1990 when it accepted the internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot
government's application for membership on behalf of the whole island.
"The EU is now facing a dead-end. Either it will put the entire
burden on Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots, or it will jeopardize its
expansion," he said.
"But it is not our duty to give up on our interests and rights
to resolve other people's problems."
His view was also voiced by Tahsin Ertugruloglu, defence and foreign
minister of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
(TRNC).
"The Turkish Cypriots will never give up on their state, sovereignty
and Turkey," he told the conference here.
Gurel lashed out at the pan-European bloc for hindering peace talks
between Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and Greek Cypriot leader
Glafcos Clerides
with promises of membership.
"The EU is encouraging the Greek Cypriots to leave the negotiating
table without a solution and join the European Union at once,"
he said, warning that the EU would be making a "historic mistake"
if it accepted the commission's recommendation to accept Cyprus as
a member.
Such a development would "upset the balance between Turkey and
Greece in the area, make the division of the island permenant and
eliminate the possibility of a settlement," Gurel said.
Turkey would then strengthen its ties with northern Cyprus and "we
shall progress towards a common future," the minister said.
"Turkey and the TRNC will be freer than ever to take steps together
for a common future," he added.
Denktash and Clerides have been holding UN-sponsored peace talks since
January, but have so far failed to overcome their differences.
The Turkish Cypriots and Ankara want Cyprus to be reunited in a loose
confederation of two separate and equal states, while the Greek Cypriots
favor a federation of two zones.
2. - The Los Angeles Times - "Turkish Support May Be Illusory":
10 October 2002 / by Ben Ball
Ben Ball was a Fulbright scholar in Turkey in 1998 and 1999 and worked at the U.S. Embassy in Ankara in 2001 as a Southwest Asia specialist from the Fletcher School at Tufts University.
The road to Baghdad runs through Turkey. As one of Washington's strongest political and military allies in the region, Turkey seems to be the only one standing firm with the U.S. in offering its airspace and territory to launch an attack on Iraq.
Yet while Turkish leaders voice public support for "regime change" in Iraq, they do so through clenched teeth. Although Turkey has problems with Saddam Hussein, it fears internal political and economic instability far more than weapons of mass destruction.
Turkey is teetering on the edge of a political disaster that could seriously hurt the Bush administration's plans in Iraq. Polls suggest that more than six major parties will fail to obtain the necessary 10% support needed to gain entry into Parliament in Turkish elections in November. All signs point to a bizarre situation in which Islamists, whom the military removed from power in 1998, attempt to return to government with a parliamentary majority gained through a mere 25% of the vote.
This kind of political weakness is eerily similar to the situation that led to Turkey's crippling 2001 financial crisis. At that time, Turkey reeled through an unplanned and chaotic float of the Turkish lira, a huge International Monetary Fund bailout and soaring unemployment.
Washington supported Turkey in the IMF on the condition that massive structural improvements be made. International investors did not have confidence--most of them removed their capital from Turkish markets, leaving the economy with a diminished capacity to rebuild. Investors are still waiting for the reforms of the IMF program to take root.
In 2001, Turkey's governmental coalition could deal with the crisis. After the November elections, it probably will not have that luxury. An attack on Iraq would only exacerbate the tension that exists between elected Islamists and the unelected military. This political tension could lead to more economic trouble. With investors already skeptical of Turkey's structural reforms, any further instability will only reinforce their belief that the Turkish economy cannot recover.
Why should Washington care about Turkey's political and economic situation? First, if U.S. actions in Iraq cause the political and economic situation to deteriorate, Turkish popular support for an attack (which is already very low) will disappear altogether.
Second, Turkey's border with Iraq is the heartland of support for the Islamists. In the Gulf War, Turkey voluntarily shut off its profitable oil pipelines and trade with Iraq. This caused the economy of the area to collapse. It has recovered only with the reestablishment of trade with Iraq, a move Washington opposed. An Islamist government that counts on the support of this area will not agree to such voluntary cutoffs.
Third, this is the region where Turkey fought a bitter civil war with the Kurds in the 1990s. An attack on Iraq would upset the delicate balance of Turkey's relations with its own Kurds as well as with Kurds in northern Iraq.
In northern Iraq, Turkey supports a fragile, quasi-independent Kurdish entity in the hope that it will never become a state. If U.S. plans include a Kurdish state, Turkey will withdraw its support.
As Turkey heads for elections, Iraq is the only political issue that unites the country. Leftists, rightists, nationalists and Islamists all agree that an attack on Iraq now would again unleash the specter of instability within Turkey and its volatile neighborhood.
While Turkey will give lip service to U.S. actions, the Bush administration
may find that even that will evaporate once the true costs to the
Turkish people are revealed. Without a clear plan for dealing with
the consequences of a war in Iraq on their country, Turks will remain
rightfully skeptical about why they are allowing it to happen from
their territory.
3.
- AFP - "Kurdish guerrillas threaten new war against Turkey
if banned from poll":
ANKARA / 10 October 2002
A Kurdish guerrilla group that for 15 years fought for self-rule
in southeast Turkey warned of new war if Ankara bans a pro-Kurdish
political party from taking part in November 3 elections, a pro-Kurdish
news agency said in a dispatch received by AFP.
"War will be inevitable if the means for democratic struggle
are ruled out," the Germany-based agency Mesopotamia (MHA) said,
quoting Osman Ocalan, a member of the guerrilla group's leadership
and brother of its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan.
The group, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) renamed itself
KADEK, or Congress for liberty and democracy in Kurdistan, in April,
but remains on a European Union list of terrorist groups.
The PKK proclaimed a unilateral ceasefire in 1999, after Abdullah
Ocalan was jailed, and fighting in southeastern Turkey has nearly
stopped since.
The warning followed recent moves by a top Turkish state prosecutor,
Sabih Kanadoglu, to ban DEHAP, the only pro-Kurdish party to field
candidates in the November 3 elections because of its lack of overall
national representation.
If DEHAP is banned "this will mean we will renew guerrilla warfare
in the spring," said Ocalan.
4. - Radio Free Europe - "EU: Hard To Calculate Turkey's Chances Of Joining Anytime Soon":
PRAGUE / 10 October 2002
By Breffni O'Rourke
Whatever their chagrin in private, Turkish leaders are expressing optimism about the prospects for eventual membership in the European Union. That's despite the European Commission's progress report, which says Turkey is not yet ready to open membership negotiations. But Turkey's real chances of joining the EU anytime soon remain hard to calculate.
What are the real reasons Turkey is finding it so difficult to make decisive progress toward membership in the European Union?
The European Commission's annual progress report just issued in Brussels offers the evident, up-front explanation, namely, that Turkey still fails to meet the EU's political criteria, especially in the area of human rights.
The report praises Turkey's reform steps so far, including the abolition of the death penalty and legislation giving more cultural rights to Kurds. But it cites continuing restrictions on freedom of expression, on freedom of religion, and on freedom of association and peaceful assembly.
And it offers no target date for an opening of formal membership negotiations. Overall, the tone of the report appears to offer little expectation for a negotiating date anytime soon.
However, European Commission President Romano Prodi went out of his way yesterday to emphasize that there would be no artificial delays. He said in Brussels, "What is done is not yet enough for meeting the Copenhagen criteria, but we shall work hand in hand with the Turkish government to go on with this process in order to make this event possible in the future."
In Ankara, Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz put the best face on things, saying Turkey still hopes a date for talks will be set at the EU's Copenhagen summit in December. He also said Turkey remains determined to achieve EU membership.
Resat Arim, a board member at Turkey's Bilkent University's Foreign Policy Institute, emphasized the importance Turkey attaches to the naming of a date in Copenhagen. Reflecting similar remarks by Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel, Arim said, "If there is no date for commencement of negotiations with Turkey in December, of course relations [with the European Union] will probably suffer."
Arim recalled that Ankara froze political contacts with the EU in 1997 over what was perceived as a similar snub.
Looking beyond the reasons stated by the European Commission, there are other factors in play as to why naming a date now would be considered undesirable.
Peter Zervakis of Bonn University's ZEI think tank explained, "The first thing is, we have to wait until the result of the parliamentary elections [on 3 November] to see whether Turkey is going to get a stable, democratic government with the objective of continuing the orientation process towards Europe or whether the nationalists or the classical Ataturk national independence forces will gain power."
As to the reforms Turkey has carried out, Zervakis sees the country as only at the very start of the process, and he said these reforms exist so far only on paper. Until there is actual implementation of the reforms, the European Commission cannot proceed to the next stage of the accession process, namely, monitoring the way these new rules are observed in practice.
But some analysts say there are considerations further in the background of the Turkish application that are not being talked about.
Phillipe Moreau de Farge of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris said that when the EU takes in a new member, it takes in that country's whole range of problems and becomes responsible for those problems. "To be clearer, if Turkey joins the European Union, it means two things. First, the European Union will be no longer a European structure. It will be a Euro-Middle East structure," Moreau de Farge said.
Having Middle Eastern borders would mean a major change in the EU's geopolitical situation. Second, he said, the EU takes on a new member's problems. If Turkey were to join the EU, "the Kurdish problem will become a European problem."
Moreau de Farge said he believes the European Union "is not ready to fulfill that kind of geopolitical obligation."
In addition to geopolitical considerations is the philosophical question of whether Turkey belongs to Europe at all. This question, which raises the issue of a Christian-Muslim divide, is rarely addressed directly by politicians in Western Europe.
The conservative challenger for the German chancellorship in last month's elections, Edmund Stoiber, was one public figure who had the courage to say that in his view, Turkey does not belong in Europe. EU leaders have repeatedly said the fact that Turkey is a Muslim country has no bearing whatsoever on its candidacy.
But given the immense size of Turkey, with its 70 million people
and its dramatic differences in lifestyle from the rest of Europe,
there is a shade of doubt in the European popular mind about Turkey's
suitability. It's difficult, however, to determine exactly how influential,
or appropriate, this thinking is.
5. - Turkish Daily News - "Sezer says EU report doesn't give a vision":
Uneasy with the progress report, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit declares Turkey will not discuss any alternative to membership to the EU
ANKARA / 11 October 2002
Turkey is reactionary to the progress report declared by the European commission underlining that it is not objective and does not give a vision to Turkey.
President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, stated that the progress report mentions Turkey's progress but still is far from satisfying because of the recommendations it makes.
Sezer, speaking at the opening ceremony of a NATO solidarity associations ATA meeting in Istanbul said, "Reforms ratified by Turkey are the most important reforms in Turkish history. Turkey has a strong will to continue reforms and to implement them."
Sezer mentioned that he had sent a letter to the president of the
European Commission Romano Prodi to say, "Turkey hopes that the
EU will contribute member countries for the political decision to
be made in Copenhagen. Turkey demonstrated its will to access the
EU and expects the EU to show similar will."
Turkey will not discuss alternatives
Prime minister Bulent Ecevit speaking in a meeting in Ankara said that Turkey will not discuss any alternative to membership to the EU.
Asked by reporters Turkey's attitude to Cyprus starting negotiations with the EU and Turkey not being given a date, Ecevit said that Turkey will not discuss any alternative to membership to the EU: "It is not appropriate to expect to tranquilize Turkey with some nonsense solutions. There is no solution to Cyprus until Cyprus reality is accepted. There are two nations, two states, two languages and two religions in Cyprus not one nation. It is not acceptable to unify two so different nations."
Ecevit stated that Czechoslovakia decided to divide the country and that the EU had no objection to it. Ecevit stated that the difference among people in Cyprus is more than former Czechoslovakia and added, "This is part of security for both Turks in Cyprus and Turkey."
Ecevit indicated that there is a national consensus on membership
about the European Union.
Yilmaz: Turkey will not accept special status
Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, minister responsible for EU affairs, said on Wednesday Turkey was still hoping a date would be set at the Copenhagen summit in December for the European Union to open membership talks with Ankara.
Yilmaz told a news conference the EU report released on Wednesday on candidates' progress said that Turkey did not fully meet the conditions to start talks was not the final word. Yilmaz however, indicated that it is not possible to accept special status for Turkey.
Yilmaz indicated that the report is a technical one and therefore there was no big surprise. Yilmaz declared that the Commission considers updating the road map and said: "Turkey will asses the map. However the pre-accession strategy has nothing new and it is not powerful enough to carry to EU membership. It is not possible to accept a new status for Turkey."
Yilmaz mentioned that a similar proposal was made in 1997 during his prime ministry and that it was not accepted at that time.
Yilmaz indicated that the report could ease Copenhagen to give a date to Turkey but did not.
"The commission report is a long way from meeting our expectations," he said. But he added, "The report cannot pose an obstacle to the start of talks because the start of talks is a political decision to be taken in Copenhagen."
He said Turkey remained determined to achieve European Union membership, something that would add a population of nearly 70 million to the bloc and take its boundaries up to the Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi borders.
The report, Yilmaz said, was a standard progress report like those issued for all candidates and it was only natural that it contained criticisms and shortcomings.
He said EU leaders would have to take a very sensitive decision at Copenhagen on both Turkey's position and the report's recommendation that Cyprus be allowed to join the union.
Cyprus is divided into Turkish and Greek Cypriot states and Ankara has warned the bloc not to admit the Mediterranean island without a solution to its division.
"I think the heads of state and government who meet at Copenhagen will be faced with a very critical decision. This decision has to be one that does not upset the present peace on Cyprus or damage Turkey's relations with the European Union and also meets the expectations of the sides on Cyprus," he said.
"It must be a decision that fits the realities of the island and which can be implemented," he said.
Yilmaz speaking on television channel TGRT stated that Turkey has
to start lobbying for a date. Asked by TGRT the request to release
Leyla Zana, Yilmaz said, it is not possible according to our constitution.
Gurel: EU seal the division of Cyprus
Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel said on Wednesday the European Union could seal the division of Cyprus if it admitted the Mediterranean island without a deal to reunite it.
Gurel was speaking on the day the European Commission issued a report on the progress of 13 candidate countries, saying that 10 countries including Cyprus would be ready to join in 2004.
However, he said Ankara was worried at the inclusion of Cyprus, "I hope there's still room to find a solution (on Cyprus) but I'm afraid that the EU with all its declarations and decisions has been limiting that prospect," Gurel told Reuters in an interview.
"The EU has been the side which has been discouraging the Greek Cypriots from finding a solution at the table and I'm afraid if the EU goes on the same track they will be finalizing the division of the island, shutting the door to any possibility of a solution and putting the stamp of the EU on that," Gurel said.
Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas and Greek Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides started a fresh round of peace talks in January. Progress has been slow and few expect a breakthrough in the run up to a general election in Turkey on November 3.
Turkey has in the past threatened to annex the northern part of the
island if the EU admits Cyprus without a solution, a move that could
scupper its own hopes of joining the wealthy bloc.
Gurel: Still hopeful on membership
Gurel said the EU report on Turkey was not a "fair" assessment of progress made towards meeting EU membership criteria and he still expected the EU to set a date at Copenhagen when accession talks will be wrapped up with the 10 leading candidates.
"Turkey has met all the criteria and I'm sure this will be fully assessed and evaluated by those people responsible for the future of not only Turkish EU relations but the future of Europe," Gurel said. "I believe some misinformation played a role in shaping this report."
Gurel however indicated that Turkey made big efforts to meet the Copenhagen political criteria and warned the Copenhagen Summit stating that a decision without giving a date to Turkey would create disappointment in Turkey. "In the case of disappointment, it is unenviable that the negative effects of disappointment will be reflected in Turkish-EU relations," Gurel said and added that this will not be up to the government.
"I do not think these are just and fair criticisms," Gurel said, adding that a ban on Justice and Development Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was decided by an independent judiciary.
Gurel also defended the "peculiarities" of the role of the Turkish military in political life. "The importance of the armed forces in Turkish political and social life cannot be compared with any other armed forces in Europe and this is only natural."
He said the EU faced a test of its sincerity towards Turkey when it decides whether to set a date for Turkey to start talks. "We will all see whether the Europeans wish to see a genuinely pluralistic society ahead of them with multi-cultural and multi-religious dimensions," he said.
Gurel on the other hand said that when the Cyprus issue is stated Turkey welcomes some parts of report. "We welcome some parts of the report about Cyprus because the report differentiated our accession efforts from a solution to Cyprus. however, we do not welcome the EU's attitude for a resolution to the Cyprus issue."
Gurel indicated that his Greek counterpart foreign minister George
Papandreu called him to share his views.
Report far from satisfying Turkish expectations
The Foreign ministry declared that the progress report is far from satisfying Turkish expectations in a written statement.
The ministry indicated that Turkey made a lot of efforts to reach that level, and were assessed by the commission however, there are criticism towards Turkey that it does not meet political criteria. "Some are technical mistakes and some Turkish mistakes have been corrected by Turkey," the report said.
The statement indicated that the Commission assessed economic developments and harmonization to acquis communitaire in a satisfying level.
The foreign ministry however indicated that the commission was poor in assessing Turkey's progress on political criteria, and said, "It is recorded that Turkey has not met the political requirements and that it has to make progress in many fields. The criticisms made are far from describing our people's will to access the EU."
The ministry claimed that the commissions proposals are not equivalent
to the progress that Turkey had accomplished in a year mentioning
the reform packages ratified by Parliament.
6.
- AFP - "Several hundred Turkish troops in northern Iraq:
minister":
ISTANBUL / 11 October 2002
Turkey is keeping "several hundred" soldiers in neighboring
northern Iraq, a mainly Kurdish area outside the control of the central
Iraqi government, to protect its regional security interests, Foreign
Minister Sukru Sina Gurel said in an interview with AFP Thursday.
The Turkish army has carried out incursions into northern Iraq to
pursue rebels from the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK),
which, Ankara says, have taken advantage of the authority vacuum in
the area to establish themselves there and launch attacks on Turkish
territory.
"That created immense problems for Turkey, and cost it both materially
and otherwise," Gurel said.
"Turkey has had to take an interest in northern Iraq because
of its security interests. And those security interests continue,"
he said.
Turkish officials have recently acknowledged that a certain number
of Turkish troops remain in northern Iraq, without giving a number.
The air space over the region was declared a UN no-fly zone after
the 1991 Gulf War.
Turkey is now concerned that the Kurdish factions in the enclave could
move towards independence if the United States launches a military
operation against the Iraqi regime of President Saddam Hussein.
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit warned last week that Turkey could consider
military measures if a Kurdish state is to be proclaimed there.
Ankara fears such a state could incite its own Kurds into separatism
at a time when the PKK's 15-year campaign for self-rule has notably
abated.
Those fears lie at the core of Turkey's opposition to US military
action against Iraq.
"I think there is still some room for finding a political solution"
to the Iraqi issue, Gurel said.
"If political ways are exhausted to the end, any other action
should be based on legitimacy and consensus of the international community,"
he said, echoing a statement by the Turkish leadership last week.
If the US decided to strike Iraq, it will look to Turkey for support.
The country, which is a member of NATO, is already home to US and
British warplanes enforcing the northern no-fly zone over Iraq.