1 October 2002

1. "Turkish MPs set for battle over bid to delay elections", the Turkish parliament returns from summer recess on Tuesday for a crucial battle over whether to cancel the early November 3 general election. The session, scheduled to start at 3 pm (1200 GMT), will set the scene for a tactical war between parties which want the election to be held as scheduled and those demanding that it be scrapped, mostly on fears that they will lose all their seats at the polls.

2. "Turkey's AKP says won't back moves to delay polls", poll frontrunner the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will not support moves by some Turkish politicians to postpone November 3 elections when parliament reconvenes on Tuesday, a senior party official said on Monday.

3. "Turkey accuses US of encouraging Iraqi Kurd independence moves", Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has accused the United States of encouraging independence moves by breakaway Kurds in northern Iraq, the ass-circulation daily Hurriyet reported on Tuesday. The possibility of an independent Kurdish state emerging in northern Iraq, an area outside Baghdad's control since the 1991 Gulf war, lies at the core of Turkey's opposition to US plans to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein.

4. "Turkey's Iraq balancing act", Turkey's precarious diplomatic balancing act on the Iraq issue is being highlighted on Monday with separate visits from senior American officials and the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Tariq Aziz.

5. "Turkish tank-upgrade deal is to be signed", a $687.5 million deal in which Israel Military Industries (IMI) upgrades 170 Turkish army Patton A-3 and M-60 tanks over the next five years was to go into effect this week, as the largest single deal ever made by the Defense Ministry.

6. "Cyprus' Clerides swipes at Turkey on talks stance", Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides took a swipe at Turkey on Monday for taking extreme positions in negotiations to resolve the problem of divided Cyprus, as pressure to reach a settlement mounts.

1. - AFP - "Turkish MPs set for battle over bid to delay elections":

ANKARA / October 2002

The Turkish parliament returns from summer recess on Tuesday for a crucial battle over whether to cancel the early November 3 general election. The session, scheduled to start at 3 pm (1200 GMT), will set the scene for a tactical war between parties which want the election to be held as scheduled and those demanding that it be scrapped, mostly on fears that they will lose all their seats at the polls.

Parliament voted in July to bring elections forward from April 2004, following a political crisis sparked by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's ill health and a rift in his three-party coalition over reforms designed to improve Turkey's chances of joining the European Union. The decision was endorsed by an overwhelming majority in the 550-seat house but last week 124 lawmakers submitted a proposal to cancel the poll.

Some maintain that electoral laws should be amended and made more democratic. Others, including one government party, say the country should forget the election and focus instead on improving its EU bid. The 15-nation bloc is due in December to set out its timetable for enlarging eastwards. But the general conviction is that MPs who oppose the November ballot are trying to escape an election in which they risk a defeat.

"The honour test of politics," the Radikal daily trumpeted in a front-page headline on Tuesday. "If those who want to delay the elections are not obstructed, politics will fail in such an important exam that no other exam in the future will save it," it said. Parties who want the election to go ahead are expected on Tuesday to seek to have parliament immediately returned to recess until the November poll, while opponents are expected to try and keep the assembly open so it can hold a vote on cancelling the ballot.

The opposition Justice and Development Party (AK), a moderate Islamist force whose leader was barred from standing in the poll because of a conviction for sedition, is tipped to win a clear victory in November. Several mainstream parties, including Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP) and its centre-right partner, the Motherland Party (ANAP), are expected to lose all their seats.

Recent surveys have shown that out of the some 20 parties running in the elections, only AK and the centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) will confidently win enough votes to enter parliament. Others are struggling to pass the 10-percent national threshold. Parties favouring the polls have a majority in parliament but some of their members who have not been selected for re-election might also vote for a postponement.

Besides ANAP, two opposition parties -- the Islamist Saadet and the centre-left New Turkey led by Ecevit's former foreign minister Ismail Cem -- have declared support for a cancellation. The embattled Ecevit says the election should go ahead even though his party also risks a defeat.

2. - Reuters - "Turkey's AKP says won't back moves to delay polls":

ANKARA / 30 September 2002 / by Asli Kandemir

Poll frontrunner the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will not support moves by some Turkish politicians to postpone November 3 elections when parliament reconvenes on Tuesday, a senior party official said on Monday.

The AKP tops most opinion surveys despite its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan being banned from standing for election due to a past conviction for Islamist sedition. AKP currently holds 59 seats in the 550 seat parliament.

Some deputies who fear defeat in the election, called 18 months early, want to delay polls and will set the process in motion when parliament returns from summer recess on Tuesday.

There has been speculation that some members of the AKP would push for a delay to wait out Erdogan's political ban, which is expected to expire in February.

"If necessary we will consider passing a party decision (on support for a delay), but we don't need this because our 59 deputies want elections to happen," Abdullah Gul, the AKP deputy chairman who is widely tipped as Erdogan's successor, told reporters at a news conference.

The move to delay polls is backed by the Islamist Saadet Party, with 46 deputies, and by some MPs in the coalition Motherland Party and centre-left New Turkey Party.

The exact number of deputies who will support the move is unclear but more than 100 signed a petition last week calling for the early recall of parliament to discuss the motion.

Markets fear a delay in the election would prolong uncertainty that has sent interest rates soaring and threatened the implementation of a $16 billion IMF programme aimed at overcoming last year's financial crisis.

To win a delay, the deputies who are known in Turkey as the "disgruntled" ones would have to attract a quorum of 184 members of parliament to a sitting and would then need a simple majority of those present to pass the motion.

Opinion polls show the AKP is the only major party currently represented in parliament that would easily pass the 10 percent threshold needed to win seats at the November election.

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has said he will not support a delay in the election and other party leaders have also distanced themselves from a move that surveys show would be very unpopular with the electorate.

Nonetheless there is a possibility that the prospect of being cast into the wilderness will lead deputies who fear losing their jobs to back a delay in the elections.

Turkish stocks and debt fell on Monday in what brokers attributed to nerves about the political uncertainty.

They say a delay is unlikely but until the matter is resolved markets will remain nervous.

3. - AFP - "Turkey accuses US of encouraging Iraqi Kurd independence moves":

ANKARA / 1 October 2002

Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has accused the United States of encouraging independence moves by breakaway Kurds in northern Iraq, the mass-circulation daily Hurriyet reported on Tuesday. The possibility of an independent Kurdish state emerging in northern Iraq, an area outside Baghdad's control since the 1991 Gulf war, lies at the core of Turkey's opposition to US plans to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein.

"The Kurdish groups in northern Iraq are constantly moving forward, taking encouragement from some western states and the United States. This is annoying us," Ecevit told Hurriyet in an interview. "Many steps have already been taken towards the establishment of a separate (Kurdish) state. Turkey cannot accept this to be taken further. I am confident the US will take into account Turkey's sensitivity" on this issue, he added. The two main groups running northern Iraq -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan -- have recently drawn up draft constitutions for a future "Iraqi federal republic" which would include their autonomous enclave.

Ankara fears the Iraqi Kurds might eventually seek independence, a prospect that could incite Turkey's own Kurds in adjoining southeast Turkey to join them. A 15-year rebellion by Kurds in southeastern Turkey abated just two years ago after fighting had left more than 30,000 dead. Ecevit said the US "encouragement" to Iraqi Kurds, part of the Iraqi opposition against Baghdad, worked against Washington's efforts to win Turkey's support for military moves against Iraq. "But I hope the US will reach a compromise with Turkey, because I suppose Turkey's importance to Western Europe and to the US cannot be compared to the importance of the state which is planned in northern Iraq," he said.

Turkey, a NATO member and a close Muslim ally of Washington, hosts US and British warplanes which enforce the northern no-fly zone over Iraq. Its support would be crucial should the United States launch a military operation. Asked whether Turkey would open its air bases to US warplanes if Washington decided to strike its southern neighbor, Ecevit said: "Our position is that there is no need for a military operation against Iraq. We are saying that this will inflict a big harm on Turkey."

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz warned Tuesday after talks with Ecevit that Baghdad would not consider Turkey a friendly nation if US warplanes used its bases for operations against Iraq. Asked if Iraq would continue to see Turkey as a friend if it allowed US planes to use its airbases, Aziz told reporters in Arabic: "Absolutely not." "Turkey's interests will not allow it to let the US threaten a friendly and neighboring nation," he added.

4. - BBC - "Turkey's Iraq balancing act":

30 September 2002 / by Mark Doyle

Turkey's precarious diplomatic balancing act on the Iraq issue is being highlighted on Monday with separate visits from senior American officials and the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Tariq Aziz.

Talks in Ankara with the US Assistant Secretary for European Affairs, Elizabeth Jones - which Turkish officials say have already begun - are expected to centre on what military facilities Turkey could provide its US ally in any possible attack on Iraq.

But later in the day, Turkey will also host Tariq Aziz who is expected to ask Ankara to resist US pressure.

Turkey finds itself caught between a US military ally it helped during the war to expel Iraq from Kuwait, and its neighbour and trading partner, Iraq.

Turkey is publicly against an attack on Iraq.

It says it lost billions of dollars in trade as a result of Operation Desert Storm and is worried that any new campaign could destroy its tourist industry again.

Turkey is also concerned about precipitating a break-up of Iraq with the possible creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, which could link up with Kurdish areas in eastern Turkey.

But at the same time, Turkey is trying to squeeze the best possible deal out of what may be an inevitable attack.

"Turkey knows that they can't stop America, so they are trying to get some sort of compensation, at least in economic terms, and in political terms, they are trying to get guarantees against a possible Kurdish state," says Ahmet Sevindik, news editor of the Turkish TV channel SkyTurk.

Turkey's balancing act on foreign affairs - caught as the country is between the west and the Islamic world - is also reflected in its domestic politics.

Parliamentary elections are due in November, with fiery debates expected between Islamists and secular parties.

5. - Haaretz - "Turkish tank-upgrade deal is to be signed":

1 October / by Amnon Barzilai

A $687.5 million deal in which Israel Military Industries (IMI) upgrades 170 Turkish army Patton A-3 and M-60 tanks over the next five years was to go into effect this week, as the largest single deal ever made by the Defense Ministry.

Dr. Ehud Ganani, CEO of IMI, and Brig. Gen. (res.) Shalom Koren, head of the project, went to Turkey this past weekend to take part in the formal ceremony sealing the deal at the Turkish Defense Ministry. With the formal announcement, IMI will get a $18 million down payment, and hand over a bank guarantee for the same amount to the Turkish Defense Ministry.

The deal is the single largest contract ever sealed by the defense ministry. With the deal, security exports will top $3 billion this year, a record for Israeli defense exports.

IMI faced tough competition from the largest tank manufacturers in the U.S., Germany, and France in a five-years race for the deal, which broached two alternatives; either buying a new tank system from scratch or renewing the existing fleet. While the Turks deliberated, strategic and defense ties between the two countries were strengthened.

The real flowering of the Turkish-Israeli relationship became evident in 1997, with a deal for the Israel Aircrafts Industry to upgrade two squadrons of F-4 Phantoms, for $600 million. That deal was followed up a few months later with a similar one to upgrade F-5s for $76 million. That year Israel and Turkey began joint naval exercises, along with the U.S. Sixth Fleet.

The relationship extended to Turkey opening its air force bases to Israeli air force pilots - and the Israeli defense establishment showing off advanced weapons technologies to Turkish defense officials. Gradually, Turkey became Israel's largest customer for Israeli defense technologies.

The relationship with Turkey underwent a test two years ago with the outbreak of the intifada. The negotiations for the tank deal slowed down, and a year ago another crisis broke out when the Turks said Israel was asking for too much money in the deal. Gradually, the price dropped from nearly $1 billion to $687.5 million.

Defense Ministry policy deputy director-general Amos Yaron is to refuse any deal that is not profitable. "We'll make do with IMI not losing money in the deal ... which is of strategic importance for Israel," said a senior ministry source, admitting the profit margin for the deal is slim. But there is potential for profit down the road.

The Turkish armored corps will want to improve the tanks even further, and after the first batch are upgraded, Turkey will want, it is believed, to upgrade more Pattons. Indeed the program could go on as long as 10 years.

6. - Reuters - "Cyprus' Clerides swipes at Turkey on talks stance":

NICOSIA / September 30, 2002

Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides took a swipe at Turkey on Monday for taking extreme positions in negotiations to resolve the problem of divided Cyprus, as pressure to reach a settlement mounts.

Clerides, the Greek Cypriot leader, has been holding intense reunification talks with Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash for the past nine months in a bid to beat the countdown to European Union membership and avert the prospect of the island entering the bloc divided.

But any hopes that EU membership could have a positive spin-off on reunification talks appear misplaced so far, with no tangible progress being recorded.

"A settlement does not only depend on us. It also depends on the Turkish side which...remains attached to extreme and unacceptable positions," Clerides said in a state address marking the anniversary of Cypriot independence on October 1.

The Mediterranean island has been divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974 prompted by a brief Greek-inspired coup, and no amount of international cajoling has managed to bridge deep gaps on how it should be reunited.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is to meet the two leaders in New York on Thursday and Friday to review progress amid growing speculation he may be poised to submit a peace plan.

The Greek Cypriots, who run the island's internationally recognised government, want a reunification based on a federal model of two ethnic regions, one Greek and the other Turkish. Turkish Cypriots, who run a breakaway state in northern Cyprus recognised only by Ankara, want a union of two largely independent states.

Cyprus is to be invited to join the EU in its next enlargement, expected from 2004, along with another nine mainly central and eastern European countries.

A settlement is not a precondition to joining, but Brussels will have to negotiate a diplomatic tightrope if the dispute is not resolved before Cyprus becomes a member of the bloc.

EU hopeful Turkey has warned it may "annex" the north if the island joins divided, while EU member Greece, a close ally of the Greek Cypriots, has said it will not ratify enlargement without Cyprus.

Clerides said Cyprus was on the verge of accession, but cautioned that it should not rest on its laurels. "We are in the final stretch of a course which will be difficult and very complicated," he said.