7
November 2002
2. "Turks uncommitted on U.S. use of bases", the leader of Turkey's winning party refused yesterday to commit to allowing U.S. warplanes to use Turkish bases in any war with Iraq and declined to say whether his country's close military ties with Israel will be maintained.
3. "Turkish tug of war", the expected tug of war between winning party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s politico-military establishment kicked off yesterday. Mobilizing the media, the bureaucratic mechanism and state officials under its control, the Turkish establishment launched an attack on the Islamist leader for his remarks on the Cyprus issue a day after his election.
4. "Erdogan toes official line on Cyprus", PM Costas Simitis met with President Jacques Chirac in Paris yesterday for talks on Cyprus and Iraq. Simitis briefed Chirac on Athens’s insistence that Cyprus be allowed to join the EU irrespective of whether its political problem was solved.
5. "Turkey's Erdogan wants review of IMF-backed program", the Justice and Development Party (AK), the winner of Turkey's general elections, is seeking amendments to reforms agreed to by the outgoing government in exchange for a multi-billion-dollar aid program from the International Monetary Dund, its leader said Wednesday.
6. "Democratizing Islam in Turkey", in a nation of 65 million that straddles Europe and the Near East, one that juggles Islam and democracy and debates whether women should wear head scarves, voters have propelled to power a new political party rooted in fundamentalist Islam but whose greenest leaves are pro-Western, secular, and above all, uncorrupted by Turkey's unpopular political elite.
1. - The New York Times - "Turkey Waits and Wonders: How Closely Bound to Islam Is Election Victor?":
ISTANBUL / November 7, 2002
By IAN FISHER
The question is even more relevant now that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is, in all but name, the leader of this nation that vitally joins East to West: has he really changed?
The beliefs he expressed as a younger man, though not much younger, make many in Turkey wonder and fear a little.
"Thank God, I am for Shariah," Mr. Erdogan once said, referring to Islamic law. Another time he said, "For us, democracy is a means to an end." Perhaps most infamously, "One cannot be a secularist and a Muslim at the same time."
The public mythology of Mr. Erdogan, 48, is that he began to see the world in a different way as these things happened: Turkey's only Islamist government fell in 1997, he lost his job as Istanbul mayor the next year, and he went to jail for reciting a religious poem.
He then began to back off the muscular Islam that had always defined his life, praise Turkey's secular state, and engage the West. "I changed," he said this year. "It was necessary to catch up with developments, the modern age."
Voters in Turkey, a nation proud of its religious moderation, believed him, or at least were willing to take a risk for broader political change. In the elections on Sunday, they swept away a generation of established politicians to give his Justice and Development Party enough seats in Parliament to form a government on its own, though Mr. Erdogan is himself barred from holding a formal post because of his conviction for reading the poem.
Many here, and in a Western world wary of Islamic radicalism after Sept. 11, say he still has to prove that change. But many who know Mr. Erdogan, or have followed his career, say he has either given up his more strident views or understands now that he is unlikely to hold onto power if he acts on them. Some say he has always been more pragmatist and populist than Islamist.
If he is sincere, Mr. Erdogan may usher in what Günter Verheugen, the European Union official in charge of expanding its membership, this week hopefully called "one of the most interesting experiences in the future — whether we can have a modern democratic party in an Islamic country, a party based on religious values."
Can Turkey, or any Muslim country, create a system like those in many Western democracies, where religion is paid due heed, but as a matter of values, not governance? Turkey, so far, has flinched from overtly religious political leaders as a threat to its vulnerable secular state, often at the expense of full democracy.
"It is very important," said Metin Heper, a professor at Bilkent University in Ankara, who has written a detailed study of Mr. Erdogan. At best, he said, Mr. Erdogan may bring "an enlightened interpretation of Islam, to make it compatible with the modern world and compatible with modern democracy, while he is a pious, devout Muslim himself."
Mr. Erdogan has a long record of injecting Islam into politics. On his election as mayor of Istanbul in 1994, he proclaimed himself the city's imam, a Muslim religious leader, and opened public meetings with prayers.
His belief was formed in childhood in Kasimpasa, a conservative, religious, poor and somewhat rowdy neighborhood in Istanbul. In Kasimpasa today, women may cover their heads, but they also sit outside smoking cigarettes or navigate cars down the narrow, busy streets — uncommon sights in many Islamic countries, and a legacy of the more tolerant Islam practiced in the Ottoman Empire, centered in Turkey, where Jews, Christians and Muslims all lived.
Since the emergence of modern Turkey's secular founder, Ataturk, the country's leaders have often sought to stifle many expressions of Islam, and that has energized religious activists. But, Mr. Heper says in his study, this still gave rise to a more tolerant view of Islam than that in many other Islamic nations, and it is this view that Mr. Erdogan imbibed as a young man.
He attended a religious school in Kasimpasa — an experience he later said "I owe everything to" — and played soccer well enough to become a neighborhood celebrity and, nearly, a professional athlete.
In everything, said Esref Yararbas, 47, a grocer in Kasimpasa who knew him since childhood, Mr. Erdogan wanted to win.
He started in politics organizing for a religious youth group, and by the mid-1980's was active with the Welfare Party, headed by Necmettin Erbakan, the leader of Islamist politics in Turkey.
As Istanbul mayor, Mr. Erdogan won praise for an efficient administration. But his early career also stoked controversy: he banned alcohol in municipal restaurants; proposed returning prayer to the Ayasofia, the Byzantine church here, later a mosque, now a museum; suggested that Pierre Cardin "stage a fashion show of dresses with veils."
Some who know him say that it was as mayor that his view of the world began to shift — he traveled abroad and was exposed to broader ideas.
But in 1997 he recited a poem and opened the defining chapter of his career. It read, "The mosques are our barracks, the minarets are our bayonets."
Mr. Erdogan was convicted of inciting religious hatred in 1998 and served four months in prison in 1999. Several people who know him say that experience was pivotal.
"It was a turning point," said Rusen Cakir, a former journalist. "There were two alternatives. One was to be an Islamist Mandela in Turkey, resisting in jail and never obeying. The other was trying to find a compromise with the state, with the system. He tried the first one, but one week later, he changed his mind and accepted his punishment."
H. Cuneyd Zapsu, a businessman and leader of Justice and Development, added: "That made him see much clearer. When you are four months out of everything you know, you have to figure out what's really going on."
People who know him say that Mr. Erdogan was coming to a larger, more pragmatic realization about politics with an Islamic tinge. It did not work well in Turkey, and he is a man interested in grasping political power. The lesson was clear: in 1997, the army shoved aside Mr. Erbakan, who had become prime minister a year before, for what soldiers saw as taking religious politics too far. Mr. Erdogan also saw other Islamic regimes in the region, many underdeveloped and despotic.
"He found that radicalism is not the way to solve problems," said Fehmi Koru, an influential columnist and Muslim intellectual. "Now I believe he has changed and he deserves to be given at least the benefit of the doubt."
Last year, Mr. Erdogan and several other former Welfare Party members founded Justice and Development and turned it into what some experts call a center-right political party, not a religious group. On several major issues, Mr. Erdogan has indeed shifted. He no longer opposes Turkey's joining the European Union.
On election night, he assured the nation — and the outside world — that he supported a secular, democratic and West-looking Turkey.
"Secularism is the protector of all beliefs and religions," Mr. Erdogan said in an interview. His explanation of the party's victory was more populist than anything. "Justice and Development is the party of the people," he said. "It's reliable, democratic, honest, respects and protects basic rights and freedoms. It is the voice of the silent masses, protector of the defenseless."
The question many have in Turkey is whether Mr. Erdogan's new moderation was merely a means to win. Newspapers often talk of a "secret Islamic agenda."
Many experts do believe he will attack issues that anger devout Muslims, like the ban on head scarves for women attending university, but say he will do it slowly so as not to rattle Turkey's army, which sees itself as the guardian of the secular state and has intervened in the past — most recently in 1980 — to impose its vision of order.
Mr. Heper argues that Mr. Erdogan will most likely continue to represent his views of Islam, but more as a moral force than an outright political one. If he strays over the line, he knows the military may clamp down on him.
"Erdogan differs from this secular view of the world,"
he said. "He thinks that for the individual you need ethics derived
from Islam. He also thinks that at the community level, Islam should
to some extent regulate interpersonal relations. This is the extent
to which he wants to use Islam."
2. - ASSOCIATED PRESS - "Turks uncommitted on U.S. use of bases":
ANKARA / 7 November 2002
by Louis Meixler
The leader of Turkey's winning party refused yesterday to commit
to allowing U.S. warplanes to use Turkish bases in any war with Iraq
and declined to say whether his country's close military ties with
Israel will be maintained.
In an exclusive interview with the Associated Press, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan of the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party said Turks
consider Israeli policies toward Palestinians to be "terrorism,"
but added that Turkey's close economic relations with Israel would
not be influenced by popular anger.
Mr. Erdogan is the power broker in the Justice party, which won a
massive election victory Sunday. He is ineligible to serve as prime
minister because he was convicted of reading a poem that courts deemed
anti-secular. His party has been meeting throughout the week to discuss
who will become prime minister, but Mr. Erdogan will most certainly
continue to be the party's most influential voice.
Mr. Erdogan once belonged to a pro-Islamic party that the military
forced from power for confronting the secular establishment. He has
made it clear, however, that the Justice party is looking to follow
a moderate, pro-Western stand. And he says that while his party opposes
a war in Iraq, it would respect decisions taken by the United Nations.
"The most preferred result is to resolve this issue in peace,"
Mr. Erdogan said.
Turkey, which borders Iraq, was a key launching pad for U.S. aircraft
during the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The United States already has about
50 aircraft in southern Turkey at Incirlik air base and would be eager
to use the sprawling NATO facility if there is a conflict with Iraq.
Mr. Erdogan spoke as the head of Turkey's military, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok,
was in the United States to discuss Iraq. The military is expected
to have a dominant say in crucial security or foreign policy issues.
When asked if the new government would agree to a request to use Turkish
bases, Mr. Erdogan said: "I don't find it appropriate to talk
about indefinite results."
"We don't know what the outcome will be from the United Nations.
The United States has not clarified its position yet," he said.
Turkey fears fighting in Iraq could destabilize the region and harm
the fragile Turkish economy as it struggles to recover from a brutal
recession that has left 2 million unemployed.
Turkey also worries that with an ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein,
minority Kurds who control an autonomous zone in northern Iraq could
declare an independent state. That, Turkish leaders fear, could inspire
Turkey's large Kurdish population.
Fighting between Israel and the Palestinians is also an emotional
issue for most Turks, who share the Islamic faith with most Palestinians.
The Turkish press, and in particular the pro-Islamic press, has harshly
criticized Israel, and especially Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, during
Israeli incursions into Palestinian-controlled territory.
At the same time, Turkey is Israel's closest ally in the region. Turkey
and Israel have close economic ties, and the Israeli and Turkish militaries
have held joint air force exercises.
3. - Kathimerini - "Turkish tug of war":
ATHENS / 7 November 2002
The expected tug of war between winning party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s politico-military establishment kicked off yesterday. Mobilizing the media, the bureaucratic mechanism and state officials under its control, the Turkish establishment launched an attack on the Islamist leader for his remarks on the Cyprus issue a day after his election.
Although his vague support for a solution based on the Belgian model was open to many interpretations (as the state propaganda machine rushed to point out), the fact that Erdogan was forced to backtrack on it marked a clear withdrawal.
“We don’t want to imitate the Belgian model on the Cyprus issue but we are inspired by it,” the Islamic leader said in a television interview yesterday. “We are talking about two equal sovereign states,” Erdogan added, reiterating Turkey’s typical intransigent line.
Despite its disappointment, Athens should not take Erdogan’s oscillation at face value. Nor should it nourish illusions about radical developments on Cyprus in the next few weeks.
As a government still has to be formed in Turkey and Erdogan has to appoint one of his party cadres as prime minister (since he has been barred from taking up the post by the judiciary), the defeated representatives of the Turkish establishment are doing everything they can to show that nothing has changed and nothing can change against their will.
In truth, the situation is quite different. A new political momentum has emerged based on popular support and a strong government majority that will be ever more lucidly reflected in Turkey’s internal power balance. Even though Ankara’s authoritarian administrative model does not allow a democratically elected government to pull the levers of the state mechanism, it would be a grave error to think that it can escape intact from the ongoing political fermentation — even less so after a political earthquake of the magnitude which shook Turkey.
Athens must bear in mind that Erdogan will govern as the new head
of the Turkish elite, not as a dissident. His dynamism will soon be
compromised by the power of the establishment. This will produce new
positions on Greek-Turkish relations and Cyprus, but no break with
the past. The exact shape of this compromise is still unknown, but
even a move away from current stagnation is in itself some form of
progress.
4. - Associated Press - "Erdogan toes official line on Cyprus":
Simitis pushes for island’s accession
ATHENS / 7 November 2002
PM Costas Simitis met with President Jacques Chirac in Paris yesterday for talks on Cyprus and Iraq. Simitis briefed Chirac on Athens’s insistence that Cyprus be allowed to join the EU irrespective of whether its political problem was solved. Chirac called for a solution before the EU summit next month. Simitis will visit Berlin tomorrow.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry moved quickly yesterday to bring into line the leader of the party which won national elections on Sunday after he made a remark that seemed to signal a break in the Cyprus impasse that has bedevilled Greek and Turkish relations for decades.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself backed away from the comment he made on Greece's NET state television on Monday that he favored resolution of the Cyprus problem «on the basis of the Belgian model.» This comment had been welcomed by officials in Athens. But Erdogan was visited by Foreign Ministry officials yesterday who briefed him on Cyprus, Iraq and other issues.
«We do not want to mimic the Belgian model for the Cyprus issue but we are inspired by this,» he later told Turkey's NTV television. «We are talking about two equal, sovereign states. There are two peoples and there must be some compromise.»
The country's outgoing foreign minister, Sukru Sina Gurel, charged that Erdogan had displayed «ignorance» of the issue. The Turkish daily Cumhurriyet spoke of «Erdogan's first blunder.»
Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis met with President Jacques Chirac in Paris yesterday to argue that the EU must abide by the decision it took in 1999 that Cyprus's accession will not be hindered by the lack of a solution to its problem. «We must do all possible within the next few weeks, before the Copenhagen summit in December, to come to a political solution,» Chirac's spokeswoman Catherine Collona quoted him saying.
Simitis, who is to meet with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder tomorrow, said Chirac agreed completely that accession agreements could be signed with the candidate countries on April 16.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is drafting a proposal for a solution to the Cyprus issue. In addition to Chirac's call, US President George W. Bush and British PM Tony Blair have written to Annan urging him to present his plan soon. Athens and Nicosia say they will not accept «just any solution» in exchange for Cyprus's EU entry.
Erdogan's deputy, Yasar Yakis, who is tipped as a likely foreign minister in the new government of the Justice and Development Party (AK), also indicated that there would be no break with Turkey's policy of demanding recognition for the breakaway state in northern Cyprus. «We have a plan which is... inspired by the Belgian and Swiss models,» he said. «But they cannot be totally copied because there had never been two separate states in Belgium which then came together into one state... We are saying that there are two states in Cyprus at the moment and they will form a new confederation by coming together.»
Indicative of the rift between the new ruling party and the Foreign Ministry was the statement by ministry spokesman Yusuf Buluc. «The Justice and Development Party will itself set its foreign policy priorities,» he told a news conference. «But it is natural to expect a continuation of state policy.» He said Erdogan had spoken only in the capacity of a party leader and that Turkey would continue to support the proposals put forward by Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash.
Two senior Greek diplomats were in Ankara yesterday to prepare Erdogan's
Athens visit. He told EU envoys this would be on November 18.
5.
- AFP - "Turkey's Erdogan wants review of IMF-backed program":
ANKARA / November 6, 2002
The Justice and Development Party (AK), the winner of Turkey's general
elections, is seeking amendments to reforms agreed to by the outgoing
government in exchange for a multi-billion-dollar aid program from
the International Monetary Dund, its leader said Wednesday.
"We would like to talk with the IMF on the faltering aspects
of the program. These are mainly the social aspects. We would like
to re-check these with the IMF," AK leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan
told the NTV news channel.
Turkey secured a 16-billion dollar loan from the IMF in February after
two severe financial crises plunged the country into one of its worst
recessions ever.
Conditions for the loan include laying off thousands of workers in
the public sector to reduce state expenditure and help preserve fiscal
discipline.
Erdogan made it clear he was not in favor of redundancies.
"If we fire these workers, what will happen to them afterwards?
And will the workplace improve after we fire the workers? No,"
he said.
The AK leader also suggested it would be better to help Turkey market
its surplus agricultural produce rather than impose production quotas.
The AK party, which has Islamist roots, won a clear victory in Sunday's
elections after calling for measures to alleviate hardships caused
by an economic crisis which has left tens of thousands jobless and
slashed family budgets.
In his first speech after the elections, Erdogan said he had no "prejudice"
against the IMF, but stressed Ankara would take into account its "national
interests" when dealing with the international organisation.
An IMF delegation visiting Turkey last month for a regular inspection
said it expected the government that emerged from the elections to
stick to the agreed economic program which aims to reduce chronic
inflation and ensure sustainable growth.
6. - Christian Science Monitor - "Democratizing Islam in Turkey":
5 November 2002
If ever the twain of East and West have met, it's in Turkey. On Sunday,
they clashed head-on.
In a nation of 65 million that straddles Europe and the Near East,
one that juggles Islam and democracy and debates whether women should
wear head scarves, voters have propelled to power a new political
party rooted in fundamentalist Islam but whose greenest leaves are
pro-Western, secular, and above all, uncorrupted by Turkey's unpopular
political elite.
The election saw the Justice and Development Party, known as AKP, take two-thirds of the seats in parliament, giving it a chance to rewrite Turkey's Constitution, and roll back the military's backroom influence.
The victory of a reformist party only 14 months old could bring about the biggest changes since Kemal Ataturk founded modern Turkey on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923 and forced Muslims to adopt Western ways, like monogamy.
It also sets the stage for Turkey to join the European Union, solve the crisis with Greece over divided Cyprus, serve as a model for other Muslim countries in balancing mosque and state, and offer up clean government to Turks (the party's initials mean "cleanness" and "light").
Those are just some of the new possibilities as a result of AKP's upset victory. Now the harsher realities:
• AKP's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, only recently changed his stripes from Islamist to "Muslim Democrat" (like Europe's Christian Democrats). When he was Istanbul's mayor, he made statements like this – "The world's 1.5 billion Muslims are waiting for the Turkish people to rise up" – which got him banned from office. He needs to let someone else be prime minister and, like his party, still needs to prove the new secular bent isn't just a guise for eventually eroding Turkey's modern ways.
• Despite its big majority in parliament, the party failed to win 65 percent of voters, and inherits an economy in dire straits.
• A US war on Iraq, relying on air bases in Turkey, will test AKP's alleged pro-Western stance.
• To win EU membership, the AKP must greatly improve Turkey's human rights, especially the treatment of Kurds, press, and dissidents. That means pushing the military further back into the barracks.
Europe and the US should welcome this historic shift, and support
the AKP's secular policies, especially its promises to the poor. Democracy
and Islam can coexist, and the more the twain meet, the better.