6 November 2002

1. "KADEK: Continue the democratic serhildans", KADEK Presidential Council considered the outcome of the elections "collapse of the regime" and necessity of a transformation. KADEK made a call to continue the democratic serhildans (popular uprising).

2. "Turkey: U.S.-based analysts see hard times ahead for new party", U.S.-based Turkey analysts see tough times ahead for the Justice and Development Party, a party with Islamist roots that has won a landslide victory in elections in secular Turkey.

3. "Landslide victory hands pro-European party power in Turkey", the 'moderate Islamist' Justice and Development Party (AKP) has swept to power in Turkey's elections while calming fears over its political past and its potential European Union future.

4. "Turkey: U.S.-based analysts see hard times ahead for new party", U.S.-based Turkey analysts see tough times ahead for the Justice and Development Party, a party with Islamist roots that has won a landslide victory in elections in secular Turkey.

5. "Greek PM welcomes Turkish mooted "Belgian model" for Cyprus", Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis on Tuesday welcomed comments from the leader of Turkey's new ruling party favoring a "Belgian model" of unification for the divided island of Cyprus.

6. "Turkey's Kurds suffer new election disappointment", Turkey's Kurdish minority, plagued by years of conflict and poverty, on Tuesday bemoaned yet another election disappointment after its party failed to win any seats in parliament.

1. - Kurdish Observer - "KADEK: Continue the democratic serhildans":

KADEK Presidential Council considered the outcome of the elections "collapse of the regime" and necessity of a transformation. KADEK made a call to continue the democratic serhildans (popular uprising).

MHA/FRANKFURT / 5 November 2002

KADEK stated that that parties like DSP, ANAP, MHP and DYP had not passed the national electoral threshold showed the necessity to go beyond the existing regime, adding that the non-representation of about 47% of the voters undermined the legitimacy of the national assembly. The statement said the following: "The results express the collapse of the regime and the necessity of a transformation. Steps taken towards democratisation will determine the future of the national assembly of which legitimacy has already been questioned. Therefore all sections of the society will observe the decisions of it and take a stance accordingly. It is why parties like DSP, ANAP, MHP and DYP which are the main political power of the regime have not been able to pass the national electoral threshold. And the fact that CHP could gain much votes although it is supported by the state and capitalists is another proof of why the existing regime must be overthrown."

It will not be long-lived

The Council considered the victory of AKP as follows: Its victory is in fact a product of reaction against the regime, it is not a lasting development. The legitimacy of the November 3 elections is disputable in every respect. 25% of the voters did not vote. And only 16 million out of 31 million voters are represented in the assembly. And it means that the will 47% of the voters who have voted has not been reflected in the parliament. If we take the non-voters too, 60% of the people are not represented in the parliament. More importantly, representatives from Kurdish provinces in the parliament have a support of 20% of voters. That means, the will of the 80% of the people is not represented in the parliament. So we can say that there is a serious legitimacy problem of the parliament. We cannot expect that such a disputable parliament will be long-lived."

Repression on DEHAP affected the outcome

Underscoring that efforts to keep the Kurdish people and democratic leftist forces from being represented in the national assembly had cast a shadow over the elections, the KADEK Presidential Council said, "Efforts to close down HADEP and debates on DEHAP until the very last days has affected the results." The statement reminded that local administrators, village guards and heads of tribes had forced people not to vote for DEHAP. The Council continued with words to the effect: "We can say that votes considered invalid has had an effect on the outcome. DEHAP's votes should be around 9% but it was kept around 6% by a conscious intervention. This and the extraordinarily high electoral threshold show that the parliament do not represent the Kurdish people and democratic leftist forces. Therefore the new parliament do not represent the Kurdish people."

Rehearsal for power

The Council drew attention to the following matters, saying that the block was not enough prepared: "A serious weakness in the organization has limited the potential force to be set into motion. Concrete results by a popular movement that has an overwhelming spontaneity have not been managed due to this weakness. But intense motion has given consciousness and experience to the mases and paved the way for a future success. We can say that it has been a rehearsal for power. If organizational drawbacks and other weakness are eliminated it is possible to be successful in the next local elections and in a possible early election."

Conscious democratic action

The KADEK Presidential Council made a call to "improve democratic serhildan", calling attention that victory of AKP based on reaction to the existing regime could not be permanent. KADEK stressed the following: "The labor, peace and democracy block will march towards power by passing over the existing temporary situation through democratic serhildan. The future will be secured not by a success based on rage but a success created by conscious democratic serhildan. The struggle for the elections is a rehearsal towards power. KADEK calls on the Kurdish people and socialist democratic forces to strengthen democratic serhildan by taking lessons from their weaknesses."

2. - Turkish Daily News - "AKP faces difficult task of representing southeast":

ANKARA / 6 November 2002

by Fatma Demirelli

DEHAP won no seat despite a rate of support in 13 southeastern provinces that, in some places, exceeded even 50 percent. As the second biggest party in the region, AK Party won 35 seats with only approximately 20 percent.
"AK Party is aware that there is a problem of representation in this region," says one party deputy. "Votes cast for DEHAP in the region are a message that it has been deprived of care at the hands of the state for years"

November 3 polls left its undisputed winner, the Justice and Development (AK) Party, with an additional burden -- to address problems that have beset southeastern Anatolia for decades. A much-criticized election system gave it a majority of seats from this troubled region and left the true frontrunner, the pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), outside Parliament.

In addition to sparking a heated debate over what policies an AK Party government would pursue in critical issues of economy, EU membership and foreign policy, the November 3 polls also posed a difficult question of parliamentary representation: 45 percent of votes could not forge a path into the 550-seat Parliament because they were cast for parties that failed to pass a 10 percent election threshold for seats in Parliament.

Pro-Kurdish DEHAP was one of 16 parties that remained outside of Parliament, despite a rate of support in 13 eastern and southeastern provinces that, in some places, exceeded even 50 percent. As the second biggest party in most of these provinces, the AK Party won 35 seats in Parliament from the region, though the total rate of votes for it there barely reached 20 percent.

The Republican People's Party (CHP), the second party to pass the 10 percent threshold, won 15 seats. The region also sent seven independent deputies to Parliament.

Diyarbakir, the biggest province in southeastern Anatolia, was the scene for the most stark discrepancy between votes and representation: Winning 56.1 percent of the votes, DEHAP won no seat in Parliament. AK Party won six seats in the province with 15.9 percent of votes and the CHP got two deputies with only 5.9 percent.

In Van, a far eastern province, DEHAP won no seat despite an overwhelming 40.8 percent of support, while AK Party won six seats with 25.8 percent. For the CHP, which won one seat, a mere 5.1 percent support was enough.

AK Party won three seats and the CHP won one in the southeastern province of Siirt, with 17.5 and 8.9 percent respectively. DEHAP recieved 32.2 percent of votes in the province.

"AKP aware of responsibility"

"AK Party is aware that there is a problem of representation in this region," said Egemen Bagis, an AK Party deputy from Istanbul. He added the party will formulate policies to address main difficulties in the region.

"Votes that were cast for DEHAP in the region are a message for us from its people, telling us the region has been deprived of sufficient care at the hands of the state for years," Bagis said.

Party officials tend to think of the region's problems in economic terms, failing to identify an ethnic-based strain. "The regional economy collapsed long ago in eastern and southeastern Anatolia. People are desperately looking for a remedy," said Maliki Ejder Arvas, an AK Party deputy from Van.

Arvas said the AK Party government would treat all parts of Turkey on an equal basis and give priority to policies to revitalize the troubled agricultural and stockbreeding sectors.

"AK Party feels the heavy burden of addressing problems of the entirity of Turkey, with its all regions, on its shoulders" said Bagis, insisting that unemployment was the most important issue that confronted the people of the region.

"There is no ideological or ethnic camp in Turkey. There are only the rich and the poor," he said

3. - Deutsche Welle - "Landslide victory hands pro-European party power in Turkey":

5 November 2002

The 'moderate Islamist' Justice and Development Party (AKP) has swept to power in Turkey's elections while calming fears over its political past and its potential European Union future.

Turkey's Justice and Development party (AKP) has secured power with a landslide victory that will allow it to rule without a coalition and amend the constitution. Initial results gave the party 34 percent of the vote, allowing the AKP to form a single government with 360 seats in the 550-seat national assembly

The election victory means that the party, with deep Islamic roots, will get the chance to live up to the promises it made regarding the pursuit of EU membership for Turkey. The AKP made joining the European Union a priority throughout the election campaign.

Although describing itself as 'moderate' with political leanings towards 'conservative democrat,' the AKP has caused some concerns within Turkey and elsewhere due to its political background. The party was formed a year ago by members of previously banned Islamist groups, and its leader Reccep Tayyip Erdogan is currently banned from the country's national assembly and therefore cannot be named prime minister.

Erdogan was banned from holding an office in the country’s parliament because he recited a religious poem in public three years ago that was construed to stir up inter-racial hatred.

Turkey and the EU

Despite the victory of a pro-EU party, the European Union is still not completely convinced that Turkey can be considered a candidate for enlargement. The Turkish parliament passed new laws to conform to European norms in August this year. It also abolished the death penalty and extended cultural rights to the country's Kurdish minority. However, a recent Amnesty International report to the EU suggests that systematic torture and human rights abuses are still rife in Turkish jails despite the reforms.

In its regular progress report, the European Commission said, "the reforms contain a number of significant limitations on the full enjoyment of fundamental rights and freedom," and added Turkey had yet to meet the political agenda to start negotiations. Despite increased pressure from Washington to give NATO's only Muslim member an accession date, EU leaders are likely to wait until December to make their final decision.

It seems that the European Union itself has little cause for concern as the AKP continues to voice pro-European support. Britain welcomed the election result and has called for a date to be set to discuss Turkey's accession. So too has Greece, which believes that its problems with its neighbor over the divided island of Cyprus, will be better addressed from within the EU.

German reactions

The most important European player with regards to Turkey’s entrance in the EU is Germany. Historically the Germans have been among the most cautious about Turkey's membership, but in the last few weeks many politicians have warmed up to the idea.

The Social Democratic-led government has recently come out in favor of Turkey joining the EU, and on Monday a spokesperson in the office of foreign affairs called the election results the "first positive signal" in the formation of a stable government. “We hope, that the traditionally close and friendly ties between Germany and Turkey will improve” with the new government, the speaker told reporters. On Nov. 27 the Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, is scheduled to meet with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to discuss entry into the EU.

The conservative opposition parties in the Bundestag, however, remain skeptical. Angela Merkel, party leader for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said on Monday that Turkey’s membership in the EU is “not on the agenda.” The CDU is also not in favor of using the EU summit in Copenhagen in December as a forum for discussing a concrete date for Turkey’s entrance, Merkel said.

Edmund Stoiber, State Premier for Bavaria is adamantly against extending EU membership to Turkey. On Monday he told reporters that Turkey is “politically and economically still far away from meeting the requirements for entrance in the EU.”

Islamist Party on Europe’s edge

European reactions to the election result from barely disguised nervousness over the rise to power of a party formed by the deputies of an outlawed Islamist organization. Observers believe that a party with Islamic roots could lead to instability and tensions in the region with pro-Islamist members within the AKP becoming dissatisfied with the non-confrontational attitude adopted by leaders such as Erdogan.

However, despite allegations to the contrary, the AKP has consistently denied that its politics are based on an Islamist agenda. On Sunday night, Erdogan, having promised voters during the campaign that he had turned his back on his Islamist past, moved swiftly to reassure the country that his party would accelerate Turkey's efforts to join the EU.

"AKP is ready to take responsibility to build up the political will to accelerate the European Union entry process, to strengthen the integration of our economy with the world economy and to implement the economic program," he said in a public address.

In a bid to allay international fears, the vice-chairman of the AKP, Yasar Yakis, also released a statement promising to speed up work on meeting the criteria for EU membership ahead of the crucial European summit in Copenhagen next month.

Yakis reiterated the party's desire to look west. The former Turkish ambassador to the United Nations told the British daily "The Guardian," "Our first priority in government will be to complete the framework document for the Copenhagen criteria. We don't want to leave any pretext for Europe to say that Turkey will not be admitted."

4. - Radio Free Europe - "Turkey: U.S.-based Analysts See Hard Times Ahead For New Party":

WASHINGTON / 5 November 2002

By Jeffrey Donovan

U.S.-based Turkey analysts see tough times ahead for the Justice and Development Party, a party with Islamist roots that has won a landslide victory in elections in secular Turkey.

The United States has hailed Turkish democracy after last weekend's elections were swept by a refashioned moderate party with roots in the Islamist movement.

The White House and State Department said the U.S. will be happy to work with any democratic government in office in Ankara -- a long-time NATO ally that Washington may call upon to play a key role in any conflict with its southern neighbor Iraq.

But U.S.-based analysts of the Muslim world's only secular democracy were less hopeful about Turkey's prospects under the Justice and Progress Party (AKP), which routed the country's traditional secular parties on 3 November to capture a commanding majority in parliament.

"Clearly, this has been an earthquake, and the ripple effects are going to go on for a long time," said Bulent Aliriza, director of Turkish studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. Aliriza yesterday joined former U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Mark Parris and Turkey analyst Soner Cagaptay for a discussion of the election at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

They all emphasized the difficulty in making any prognosis about the near-term future in Turkey, a secular state whose military has banned Islamist parties in the past, including in 1998 and 2001.

The AKP, with roots in a banned Islamist party, rode to victory on a wave of protest at economic recession and official graft that was propelled by the wide popularity of its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

But although Erdogan and the AKP have restyled their image as moderates favoring NATO and joining the European Union, the former mayor of Istanbul cannot hold office due to a conviction for alleged Islamist sedition.

Parris, who was ambassador from 1997 to 2000, says he does not believe the military will take any immediate steps against the party. But AKP still faces a court hearing later this month in which Turkey's chief prosecutor hopes to block Erdogan from leading the party and to ban AKP altogether.

Aliriza says AKP is destined to face the same challenges that past Turkish parties faced: "Despite [the fact that AKP] says it's not Islamist, it's going to run into similar problems because even if it doesn't define itself subjectively, it will be defined objectively by its enemies."

Turkish-born Cagaptay says AKP's claims to be moderate will be sorely tested as the party seeks to please both the moderates who backed it as well as its traditional core, which he says is still made up of conservative Islamists.

Cagaptay himself doubts the sincerity of the AKP leaders' claims to have embraced a moderate line: "When I look at these people to see whether or not they're Islamists, I look at their wives. [Laughter] And I would argue that except for Vecdi Gonul, the former chief justice of the Court of Accounts, the others are Islamists. Whether they have changed, whether they say differently, that's how they live."

Cagaptay says he believes AKP is likely to follow Turkey's past policies on economics and foreign policy, even if there could be what he called "atmospheric changes" to Ankara's traditionally warm ties to Israel.

Erdogan said on 4 November his party could not take a position on Iraq until deliberations at the United Nations are completed. In keeping the previous government's stance, he has said he wants to see a peaceful end to Baghdad's conflict with America.

Cagaptay says the true test of the AKP's secularism will be on social issues, such as possibly banning alcohol in restaurants or allowing women more freedom to wear Muslim head scarves. He says such issues are "emotional and iconic" in Turkey and could spell problems for AKP or even cause an internal split: "If he [Erdogan] does resolve these issues in a way of polarizing the system, it could possibly mean to the secularist camp that he's taking on political Islam, whether or not that is his ambition."

Another problem is what role Erdogan will play. Parris says there could be a shadow power in Ankara that could complicate matters as Turkey faces tricky challenges -- such as possible war in Iraq and reform talks with the International Monetary Fund -- over the next couple of months: "You have a situation where there is a prime minister who is not Tayyip Erdogan, but where Tayyip Erdogan is exercising some influence from behind the curtain. Whom does [U.S. Vice President] Dick Cheney meet when he goes to Ankara next time? He'll see the prime minister; will there be a side meeting with whatever role Tayyip Erdogan is playing?"

The analysts were also asked if an AKP government could provide a useful model -- especially to the U.S. as it pursues a war on terrorism and battle for Muslim hearts and minds -- of moderate Islamic rule to the rest of the Muslim world.

Aliriza says he doesn't believe Turkey has ever or will ever provide a model for other Muslim countries. He says each country must find its own way.

Cagaptay says Turkey could provide a model, but not for the Arab world, whose history is far different from Ankara's: "If I'm looking to countries that are similar, I would look to the west and the north. I would look to the Balkans and Bosnia and Albania. I would look to Russia and look to Central Asia and Kazakhstan, but not in other various areas of the world."

Parris, for his part, says Russia will be taking keen notice of any major changes in Ankara: "There is an assumption in Moscow that this new government means trouble in terms of their Chechen problem. That's something that's going to require very careful handling by the next government, regardless of what they think about it, because they can't ignore Russia as they formulate their foreign policy."

About 25,000 Chechens live in Istanbul and western Turkey, and up to 5 million Turks trace their heritage back to the Caucasus.

Last week, Russia asked Turkey to shut down Chechen foundations operating in the country, saying they were in contact with a group of Chechen militants who took hundreds of hostages at a Moscow theater.

Russia has said the militants made telephone calls to groups in Turkey during the siege, and accuses the Chechen foundations of connections with Chechen militants and Al-Qaeda.

Turkey denies the allegations, citing what it calls its long history of fighting terrorism.

5. - AFP - "Greek PM welcomes Turkish mooted "Belgian model" for Cyprus":

ATHENS / 5 November 2002

Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis on Tuesday welcomed comments from the leader of Turkey's new ruling party favoring a "Belgian model" of unification for the divided island of Cyprus.
But Simitis warned that Athens would not accept "any old solution" to speed the Mediterranean island's entry into the European Union.
The future of the island, divided since Turkey invaded its northern third in 1974 following an attempted coup by Greek Cypriots, is a key question as Cyprus heads toward EU membership in 2004 and Turkey struggles to advance its own bid to join the bloc.
During a meeting Tuesday with President Costis Stephanopoulos, the prime minister praised comments made by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose Justice and
Development Party (AK) swept legislative polls on Sunday, ANA news agency reported.
Erdogan told Greek public television Net on Monday that he favored "a healthy solution" to Cyprus, adding: "We are in favor of a resolution on the basis of the Belgian model."
Turkey had "sent this proposal" to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, he added.
Annan, who is to present a draft plan by mid-December to reunify Cyprus, is also reported to favor a model based on Belgium, which has a federal structure governing its Flemish and French-speaking communities and is represented internationally by one umbrella state.
Simitis said he welcomed Erdogan's comments as "very positive".
"His opinions on the Belgian model are quite different than those of Rauf Denktesh," he said, referring to the Turkish Cypriot leader of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is recognized only by Turkey.
Greek government spokesman Christos Protopapas meanwhile added that "on a theoretical level, the Belgian model fulfills the basic conditions" demanded
by Athens.
These include "sovereignty and a sole international representation, and it is operational within the EU framework," he explained.
But the spokesman warned the model cannot be applied "like a ready-made suit to another country."
With Turkey the only supporter of the TRNC, Greek Cypriots believe that a UN-mediated deal on Cyprus depends on the willingness of Ankara's new regime to resolve the thorny issue.
Simitis also stressed that Cyprus's EU candidacy and its possible reunification were separate issues.
They "can be linked, they can have a mutual influence on one another, but... they are different and we will insist on this," he said.
An EU summit in Copenhagen next month is expected to give 10 candidate countries from eastern and central Europe and the Mediterranean, including Cyprus, a green light for membership in 2004.
But Turkey has yet to win a date for accession talks with the EU and has warned that admission of only half of Cyprus will lead to the island's permanent division.

6. - AFP - "Turkey's Kurds suffer new election disappointment":

DIYARBAKIR / 5 November 2002

by Mahmut Bozarslan

Turkey's Kurdish minority, plagued by years of conflict and poverty, on Tuesday bemoaned yet another election disappointment after its party failed to win any seats in parliament.
"I am very sad. Once again, we are out of parliament," said Yavuz Tokacli, a 3 5-year-old worker in Diyarbakir, the main city in the predominantly Kurdish southeast.
The Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), the sole pro-Kurdish party to take part in Sunday's general election, garnered 56 percent of the vote in Diyarbakir and was first in 12 other eastern provinces. But it failed to pass the 10-percent national threshold required to win any parliamentary seats.
According to unofficial results, DEHAP won 6.2 percent of the vote at the national level, compared to the 4.7-percent its sister party received in the last polls in 1999. The electoral board is expected to take about two weeks to announce the official results.
"We are being left out because of the defects in the electoral system," said farmer Cabbar Kara, who nevertheless saw some good in the results. "We increased our vote by nearly 50 percent. This is also a success."
The polls resulted in a sweeping victory for the Justice and Development Party, a movement with Islamist roots. The only other party to join parliament was the staunchly secular Republican People's Party.
A pro-Kurdish party has never succeeded in garnering enough votes on its own to enter parliament. Separatist Kurdish rebels waged a 15-year armed campaign for self-rule in the country's southeast, and though active hostilities ceased in 1999, the Kurds have never quite been forgiven for supporting the bloody rebellion.
About a dozen members of a pro-Kurdish party won parliamentary seats in the early 1990s, but only after running on the list of a left-wing party. They were later jailed on charges of aiding armed Kurdish rebels and expelled from the legislature.
Osman Baydemir, who was a DEHAP candidate in Diyarbakir, denounced the 10-percent rule, saying it "was designed to prevent parties like DEHAP from entering parliament."
The last vote in 1999 was marred by restrictions on the campaigns of pro-Kurdish candidates and widespread allegations of intimidation by security forces.
Turkey's main rights group, the Human Rights Association (IHD), said its monitors reported incidents of intimidation this year.
"But when compared to 1999, these were very isolated icidents, which would not affect the outcome," IHD chairman Husnu Ondul told AFP.
Both Baydemir and Dogan Erbas, a DEHAP candidate from Istanbul, said they had expected the party to score at most eight percent of the national vote.
But hopes were boosted when several opinion polls suggested that DEHAP might make it past the 10 percent limit, partly thanks to the recent legalization of Kurdish-language courses and broadcasts as part of democracy reforms that Turkey undertook to strengthen its bid to join the European Union.
The tiny DEHAP gained prominence when Turkey's main pro-Kurdish movement, the People's Democracy Party (HADEP), withdrew from the race and agreed to run its candidates on DEHAP lists.
The move was seen as a precaution against a pending court case, in which HADEP risks being outlawed for alleged links with armed Kurdish rebels.