3 June 2002

1. "All roads lead to early elections", Dervis is signalling his intention to enter active politics... One after the other new parties are being established... Members of the three-way coalition government are accusing each other... The military is suggestion resolution to the death penalty and education and broadcasting in Kurdish issues... TUSIAD is intervening in politics by placing ads in papers... The president is gathering a summit of party leaders.

2. "MHP says to support death penalty until terror risk is removed", the Nationalist Movement Party will stand against the abolition of death penalty as long as terrorism remains a risk in Turkey," State Minister Faruk Bal asserted over the weekend.

3. "ANAP responds to MHP over Öcalan", ANAP said that killing Öcalan would not benefit anyone.

4. "Turkish Premier Insists He's in Charge", ailing Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit confronted growing calls for his resignation Saturday, insisting he was in good shape and would continue leading the government.

5. "EU commission hails Turkish moves to end state of emergency in Kurdish regions", the European Commission welcomed Friday Turkish moves toward ending a 14-year-old state of emergency in two Kurdish-majority regions in the east of the country, calling it a forward step towards membership in the European Union.

6. "Turkish internet law faces strong opposition", a new Turkish law that groups the internet under the same controls as the rest of the country’s media are facing harsh criticism from users, service providers and the European Union.

1. - Turkish Daily News - "All roads lead to early elections":

Dervis is signalling his intention to enter active politics... One after the other new parties are being established... Members of the three-way coalition government are accusing each other... The military is suggestion resolution to the death penalty and education and broadcasting in Kurdish issues... TUSIAD is intervening in politics by placing ads in papers... The president is gathering a summit of party leaders

The political crisis has deepened enough to reach the 'deep state.' For the first time since its creation four decades ago, a National Security Council meeting was not attended by the prime minister, deputy prime minister and the interior minister... Because of his aggravated illness, contrary to claims of recuperation, Ecevit is likely to stay indoors and won't be able to attend the June 7 summit of the party leaders at the Cankaya Presidential Palace

The conditions for EU membership, that is lifting of the death penalty, education and broadcasting in Kurdish and lifting of the emergency rule will be resolved, though with pains. The real crisis, however, will be over Cyprus. Neither the deep state, nor the Anatolian people will accept total Turkish withdrawal from Cyprus. 'We may pay a high price over Cyprus' warning of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem months ago had stemmed from this reality

Headed by the pro-EU ANAP, the 'Euro-Club' circles are unaware how the pressures on Cyprus and the pro-Kurdish impositions on Ankara are fuelling 'racist-nationalist' tendencies amongst the Anatolian people. It will be too late when those who have not tolerated Le Pen and Haider, realize the sentimental reaction of the silent Anatolian masses. The government is aware that after political criteria time we will come to Cyprus. As it will be unable to resist pressures this year end, it is very likely that it will have to take an early poll decision this fall

A development that might alter all calculations and designs, on the other hand, can be lived with the deterioration of the health situation of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. As Turkish politics has been no post-Ecevit contingency plan, incapacitation of the prime minister may land the country into political chaos, derail Turkish economy and easily place Turkish democracy on a path of no-return. Irrespective whether they want it, parties may find soon an early election as the sole way out from a catastrophic situation.

ANKARA / 3 June / by Kemal Balci

The most critical week for a way out from the crisis that has engulfed Turkish politics has started.

The health of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the outcome of the summit of political leaders at the Cankaya Presidential Palace, the unending and uncompromising political contradiction between ruling coalition's senior partner the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the junior partner the Motherland Party (ANAP) will all be clarified this week.

The political crisis that's being gradually deepening appears making an early general elections this fall unavoidable, but there is also the risk of Turkey undergoing at any moment an extraordinary development.

There are many signs that indicate that the country is being pulled to an early election. It was the Turkish Daily News (TDN) which had reported first that Turkey has entered into an election atmosphere. It was the analysis published in the TDN two months ago that first underlined that an early election was brewing. Two months after a large segment of those interested in Turkish politics conceded that there were many developments that press for an early election this fall.

Most lately, the hints of State Minister Kemal Dervis during his trip to London that he was preparing to enter active politics, were indicators that all other options to come out from this political crisis but an early election have all exhausted. Dervis, who had started his revelations with a statement that disclosing an early election date would relieve the Turkish economy as it would end the atmosphere of uncertainty, is still talking on the issue despite a call for "silence" from Prime Minister Ecevit.

Dervis did not stop at stating that a poll would relieve the economy, he furthermore stated that being afraid of an election would mean some other problems existed in a democracy.

Apart from Dervis, the Turkish political elite outside Parliament who has also seen an approaching early election, has intensified efforts to establish political parties. Thus, one after the other new political parties are emerging on the political spectrum. The Democratic Turkey Party (DTP), which is known with its close links with former President Suleyman Demirel, has replaced its aged leader Ismet Sezgin with Mehmet Ali Bayar and intensified its grassroots activities. All together some 50 parties have so far become eligible to run in an early general election.

Those who oppose an early election, on the other hand, defend that an election cannot be held with such a high number of parties and that a ballot paper having names of all 50 parties would be more than one meter long.

The reaction of the MHP

The public debate and constant contradiction between the senior and junior partners, MHP and ANAP, of the three-way coalition government has further fuelled the early elections speculations. ANAP has been demanding that the reforms and steps Turkey was required to take for its EU bid should be unconditionally taken without any debate that may cause a delay. Yilmaz, who appeared sympathetic to "Kurdish nationalists" with his declaration that "The road to EU passes from Diyarbakir, has become nowadays the open target of the MHP.

MHP leader Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli, while on a trip to China, listed the conditions of his party for EU membership. The MHP leader stressed that the death sentence file against separatist chieftain Abdullah Ocalan should be sent to Parliament for approval and the terrorist leader be transferred from his island-prison at Imrali to an F-type prison. This statement of Bahceli further increased the tension between MHP and ANAP.

Furthermore, after Bahceli's statement, MHP deputy Edip Ozbas even started preparations of demanding a Parliament inquiry against Prime Minister Ecevit, on grounds that he held Ocalan's death file at the Prime Ministry.

It was again MHP's Deputy Chairman Sefkat Cetin who expressed with most open terms the reaction of his party to Yilmaz and ANAP. Writing in "Ortadogu" newspaper, which is considered to be the press organ of the MHP, Cetin said:

"The strategy of a political party and its chairman who has assumed the duty of being the spokesman of the EU in Turkey, is composed of elements that rather than carrying Turkey to EU full membership, aims at serving their target electoral groups. Therefore, rather than examining the conditions put infront of us for EU, they have been looking what domestic benefit such steps would provide to them. In a country like Turkey which has struggled for long years with terrorism and which has not yet been relieved of this menace, nobody could consider as innocent demands the attempt to lift the death penalty and allow Kurdish broadcasting and education rights together."

"By passing the road to the EU from Diyarbakir, rather than Ankara, or by defending some cultural rights and the lifting of the death penalty one may appear cute to certain circles or may help to have election flirt with a political party on the edge of being closed down (meaning People's Democracy Party, HADEP). Do you see the EU as an opportunity for your or your party's salvation? If not so, why are you rather than explaining to the EU the realities of Turkey you has been involved in a campaign of making us accept the conditions they have been trying to impose on us?" Cetin asked.

In another question he addressed to Yilmaz, without referring to him using his name, Cetin asked what kind of a resolution Yilmaz wanted to the Cyprus problem.

"They should clearly tell the Turkish public what they wanted us to accept and what they wanted us to abandon for the sake of EU membership," he said.

MHP's Parliamentary Group deputy chairman Ismail Kose, again in an interview with the "Ortadogu" newspaper stressed that MHP won't change its position because that TUSIAD's placed ads in newspapers.

"MHP won't bow to impositions of the EU because the Turkish nation wants so," he said.

Accusing the TUSIAD of becoming and acting like the "spokesman" of "imperialist circles" Kose accused the powerful industrialist group of making unjust attacks on Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktas and acting as if the train would be missed and of deviating from national goals and of becoming the messenger of imperialist philosophy.

Again TUSIAD ads

While two partners of Prime Minister Ecevit are feuding, the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD) placed full page ads in newspapers last week. In the ads, the association that brings together the most wealthy Turkish businessmen, urged the government to take the reforms demanded by the EU and not to "miss the EU train."

The full page ads of TUSIAD was reminiscent of the ads the rich businessmen's group had placed in papers in the late 1970s.

This time, however, TUSIAD was not complaining about the government to the nation, but appealing to the parties represented in Parliament, to unite forces in a bi-partizan manner and act together to promote the European Union membership bid of the country.

In an ultimatum-like attitude, TUSIAD urged politicians, without discriminating any party, to take the necessary steps, in a bi-partizan manner, that will facilitate Turkey's European Union accession. Stressing that "Turkey is at a crossroads," the group asked politicians in full-page ads in newspapers, that they should stop using the EU as a domestic policy tool.

Besides the full-page ads, in an unprecedented manner TUSIAD came up last week with two drafts, one suggesting a way out from the death penalty deadlock and the other providing besides Turkish education and broadcasting rights in "languages traditionally spoken" in the country or "foreign languages that has contributed to the enhancement of science and culture."

Indeed, what TUSIAD suggested were nothing more than what intellectuals of the country have been debating for the past several months, but the industrialist group took the initiative with the bold move.

Stressing that Turkey ought to take some urgent steps or would miss the EU-train, TUSIAD suggested replacement of the "death penalty" in the Turkish Penal Code, as well as a set of other laws including the Anti-Terrorism Law, Military Penal Code and the Forestry Law with a new "heavy life-term" sentence, and thus called for total deletion of the death penalty from the Turkish judicial system.

The TUSIAD proposal defined the "heavy life-term" as 40 years behind bars. According to the proposal prisoners serving a "heavy life-term" would be eligible for parole or reduction in sentence only after serving 30 years of their sentence.

TUSIAD also called for a language reform and lifting of restriction on the use of Kurdish in education and broadcasting.

According to a draft prepared by leading law professor Prof. Suheyl Batum and released by the powerful industrialists group, stressed that besides Turkish "languages traditionally spoken" in the country and "foreign languages that have contributed to the enhancement of science and culture" could be used by the TV and radio stations in their music and news broadcasts.

The draft also states that it was the duty of the state to make regulations so that citizens exercise their right of learning "the languages traditionally spoken in the country." It said the state would either undertake the responsibility of learning its citizens those languages or would allow the private sector to undertake that responsibility.

The MHP reacted strongly to the TUSIAD's ads in paper, as well as to the draft laws the group suggested. It was reported that TUSIAD would visit MHP leader Bahceli this week and try to "convince" the deputy prime minister to support the reform drive. Will they succeed? That will be seen this week.

Suggestions from the military

With the interference of TUSIAD the political crisis further deepened and has apparently reached even the "deep state." The newspapers, without naming the "commander" run stories based on remarks of a general "who represented the views of the military." The general was suggesting ways of resolving the death penalty, Kurdish education and broadcasting problems, that is the issues demanded from Turkey by the EU.

The "resolution" proposal of the military on the death penalty and other issues was considered as an interference by the army into an area in which the civilians could not reconcile their differences.

According to the reports, like the TUSIAD, the military was suggesting conversion of the death penalty to a "heavy life term" without parole, and teaching of Kurdish in special courses outside the curriculum and broadcasts in Kurdish and other languages on a special channel of the state TV.

Sezer bringing leaders together

The failure of civilian politicians in resolving their differences on key issues, the military and business circles suggesting their resolution proposals are developments that analysts say underline a deadlock of the political system.

In an attempt to eradicate this image that may hamper Turkish democracy, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has invited leaders of political parties for a summit meeting at the Cankaya Presidential Palace. The meeting will take place on June 7 and will be participated by leaders of all six parties represented in Parliament (God willing and Ecevit's health permitting).

High on the agenda of that summit will be the "conventional issues" like the death penalty, education and broadcasting rights in Kurdish, the future of the emergency rule -- on which the National Security Council decided last week to recommend government phased out -- as well as the demands of the opposition parties for amendments to be made in the law on political parties and the election law.

If the leaders reconcile their differences on these issues, legislative steps, including constitutional amendments, will be taken swiftly.

If, however, the leaders don't come out from that summit with reconciliation that would let another indication that an early election has become a must. If the three ruling parties, because of their parliamentary majority, block an early election decision, the dimension of the deadlock would further enhance and become a state crisis that may land the country in a chaotic situation.

Cyprus: The difficult subject for EU

Even though it appears difficult, there is a possibility of the three partners reconcile their differences by fall and resolve the death penalty, Kurdish education and broadcasting issues. The real problem between Turkey and the EU, however, is the demand to have a Cyprus resolution by the year end.

No Turkish government has the power and courage to unconditionally pull out from Cyprus, because it would be impossible to sell such a situation to the conservative masses in Anatolia who constititute the grassroots of all center-right and nationalist parties.

Increased impositions on Turkey and demands for a Cyprus resolution in a manner that could be interpreted as a "sellout" would only feed "racist-nationalist" feelings of the silent masses of central Anatolia. The failure of the pro-EU "Euro-Club" in Turkey and the EU countries to realize this threat is indeed making the threat even more dangerous.

The Turkish military has been very sensitive on the Cyprus issue, because of its awareness of this national sensitivity on the Cyprus problem.

Thinking that the Anatolian people, who has lost hundreds of their sons in the 1974 intervention on the island to prevent total annihilation of the Turkish Cypriot people by Greek Cypriots, could be convinced to accept a Cyprus withdrawal before a resolution on the island that would be acceptable to Turkish Cypriots and which would safeguard Turkey's rights on the island, would be naive. Such an understanding would be condemned in an election as "treason" and would be buried in the election box.

Neither Turkish military, intellectuals or politicians can dare to commit such a mistake.

If the government compromises on Cyprus for the sake of a resolution before the year end, the ruling parties will suffer a humiliating defeat in the next elections. Besides, they will have to be faced with the "treason" charge for years to come.

Thus, to avoid being forced to take a decision on Cyprus, coalition partners may decide for an election in fall and thus evade both the responsibility as well as possible pressures from the EU with the pretext that in an election period no such decision was possible.

Rise of nationalism

Another reality that pro-EU circles in Turkey and European countries fail to recognize is the fact that pressures and impositions on Turkey have been fuelling racist and nationalist ideologies.

It would of course be unacceptable for Europe who could not tolerate to Le Pen in France and Haidar in Austria, to see a mass shift in Anatolia to "racist nationalist" ideologies. Because of the election system of the country such a development may make the MHP the largest party in Parliament.

The only way to prevent this slide to the extreme right in Anatolia is to adopt a new approach taking into consideration the "emotional nature" of the Turkish people, and to avoid giving the image that "concessions" were being made. The memory of the sons of the Anatolian people lost in the 15-year fight with the PKK are still very fresh. A political approach that was not devised by taking into account the some 30,000 victims of the 15-year war against the PKK, will be devoid of realism.

The dust is yet fresh on the photographs of the sons of the Anatolian people lost in Cyprus or in the fight against separatist terrorism. This reality has to be taken into account by politicians both at home and abroad.

Finding a way out from the deepening crisis is of course the duty of civilian politicians. It appears, however, that excluding an early election there is no single option that may cater to a solution of all these problems.

Although no one is publicly talking on it, a drastic development in the health of ailing Prime Minister Ecevit could further aggravate the already delicate situation and make Turkey unmanageable. Such a negative development may even force an early election option shelved.

Turkish politics which has no contingency plans for a post-Ecevit era, may land into chaos. This chaos may disrupt the already fragile balances in the economy. Under such a situation, if rather than going to fresh polls, precious time is wasted by searching other government models in Parliament, Turkish democracy may plunge into a path of no return.

Though no one is talking on such a dangerous probability but the threat remains there...

2. - Turkish Daily News - "MHP says to support death penalty until terror risk is removed":

ANKARA / 3 June 2002

"The Nationalist Movement Party will stand against the abolition of death penalty as long as terrorism remains a risk in Turkey," State Minister Faruk Bal asserted over the weekend.

"Within no other country's borders await five thousand armed terrorists," said Bal, who is a deputy of the same party.

Turkey's powerful military last week urged the government to accelerate reforms that will pave the way for launching membership negotiations between European Union and the NATO member country. These reforms include abolition of death penalty.

While the two other ruling parties apparently agree to the key EU reforms, MHP argues that Turkey shouldn't rush in lifting capital punishment, which, under its national program to join the EU, is a criterion that doesn't need to be fulfilled until 2004.

Capital punishment is a delicate issue in Turkey as PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has been sentenced to death on charges of treason.

Turkey is currently awaiting the decision of the European Court of Human Rights before placing the court's decision on Parliament's agenda.

In Turkey, Parliament has to approve the death sentence decision before an execution can take place. Turkey, one of 13 candidates hoping to join the EU, is the only country that has not yet met the EU's criteria for membership negotiations.

Bal said Turkey was pursuing the national program for membership in the Union and was trying to resolve the death penalty issue which is among the medium-term criteria of the EU.

"When deciding on [abolition of] death penalty everyone must be aware of the responsibility of maintaining its internal and external security before handing over this country to the upcoming generations," Bal added.

3. - NTV / MSNBC - "ANAP responds to MHP over Öcalan":

ANAP said that killing Öcalan would be not benefit anyone.

31 May 2002

A senior official of the Motherland Party (ANAP) has accused its far right coalition partner of making dramatic and attention seeking statements concerning the fate of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

Nihat Gökbulut, the chairman of ANAP’s party, group said on Friday that Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli was acting provocatively over the issue of Öcalan. On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Bahçeli linked debating whether the parliament should ratify the death sentence passed on the head of the outlawed PKK to giving support for Turkey commencing accession negotiations with the European Union.

European Union membership was vital for Turkey, Gökbulut said, and dealing sentimentally, rather than rationally over the issue of Öcalan would be to the detriment of the country. However, in a written statement issued on Friday by Sefkat Çetin, the deputy chairman of the MHP, he stressed that their party was supportive of the Turkey’s bid to join the EU.

4. - AP - "Turkish Premier Insists He's in Charge":

ISTANBUL / 1 June 2002

Ailing Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit confronted growing calls for his resignation Saturday, insisting he was in good shape and would continue leading the government.

The 77-year-old Ecevit, who was hospitalized twice in May, missed a key meeting with top generals last week — again fueling demands by the opposition, the media, and even some members of the coalition government that he step down.

``My condition is good, I'm not in pain,'' Ecevit said in a statement Saturday. ``I am continuing to rest as the doctors advise, but I am continuing to work as my position requires ... I'm at my post.''

Some analysts fear Ecevit's resignation could lead to a government crisis triggering early elections, though others believe the three-party coalition — which has a large majority in parliament — could remain in power under another leader.

Financial markets and business leaders are keen to avoid elections. They are concerned about the fragility of an economy that shrank 9.4 percent last year and only now is recovering under an International Monetary Fund-backed program.

Turkey also is at a critical stage in its decades-old efforts to join the European Union. At a Thursday meeting that Ecevit was unable to attend, senior military and political leaders agreed to press ahead with human rights reforms that will help the country meet EU criteria, including giving more rights to Turkey's estimated 12 million Kurds.

Turkey wants to secure a date for opening membership talks with the EU this year, and there are fears a government crisis could derail reforms. Ecevit's nationalist coalition partners, who are well placed to take over the premiership if he steps down, have opposed many reforms.

Nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli backed Ecevit on Saturday.

``As long as the prime minister is in office, until he says he is withdrawing, we are by his side,'' the Anatolia news agency quoted Bahceli — who is on an official visit to China — as saying.

Doctors visited Ecevit's home earlier Saturday for what reports said was a routine check. Ecevit has suffered intestinal problems, a broken rib and a vein infection in the past month.

Newspapers also have speculated that the premier has Parkinson's disease and myasthenia gravis, a nerve disease characterized by weakness and muscle fatigue.

Members of Ecevit's Democratic Left Party on Saturday attacked the opposition and media for exaggerating his illness.

Newspapers calling for Ecevit's retirement ``have shown a historic example of ill manners,'' and opposition leaders who made similar calls were ``political dwarves'' and ``greedy for power,'' a group of party directors said in a statement.

5. - AFP - "EU commission hails Turkish moves to end state of emergency in Kurdish regions":

BRUSSELS / 31 May 2002

The European Commission welcomed Friday Turkish moves toward ending a 14-year-old state of emergency in two Kurdish-majority regions in the east of the country, calling it a forward step towards membership in the European Union.

Turkey's powerful National Security Council (MGK) said Thursday it will ask parliament to put an end to the state of emergency in Hakkari and Tunceli provinces.

It said it will also ask for one last four-month extension to a state of emergency in two other Kurdish regions, Sirnak and Diyarbakir.

The MGK council, which is dominated by top army leaders but also includes civilian officials, convenes monthly to draw up policy guidelines that are usually rubber-stamped by parliament.

"We welcome the recommendations... in Ankara," said a commission spokesman, calling them "positive signs, a step in the right direction" toward EU membership.

"Of course we are now encouraging Turkey to make these (recommendations) legislative acts as soon as possible," he added.

Turkey, one of 13 countries waiting to join the EU, is far behind the other 12, not yet having been granted official candidate status because its government has not met basic EU criteria on democracy, human rights and the rule of law.

"These questions are part of the priorities identified in the context of accession to the EU by Turkey, on which they quickly need to make progress," the spokesman said of Thursday's recommendations.

The MGK also asked the government to speed up its reform program in view of future EU membership, and called on the EU to set a timetable for talks before the end of the year.

The three-party government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit is deeply divided over which reforms to adopt. Among them are a television program for the country's ethnic Kurds and Kurdish-language education, and abolition of capital punishment.

"The regular program the commission will publsh on Turkey in October will be influenced by all this," said the commission spokesman.

"We've encouraged Turkey to carry out further reforms with a view to fulfilling all of the political criteria for accession to the EU," he added.

"There are a number of matters we are drawing their attention to, including freedom of expression... of association... and freedom of the press, where progress still needs to be made."

The lifting of the state of emergency in the eastern and southeastern provinces, where the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has waged a bitter war against Turkish domination, is among the principle steps the EU has asked Ankara to take before any membership talks can be opened.

The Turkish government said last year it would act to end the state of emergency but did not give a date.

The PKK formally ended its armed rebellion to push for a separate state in September 1999 after 15 years, at the request of its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan who was sentenced to death in June 1999 for treason and separatism.

Fighting, which according to official figures claimed some 36,500 lives, has since practically stopped.

6. - Europemedia - "Turkish internet law faces strong opposition":

31 May 2002

A new Turkish law that groups the internet under the same controls as the rest of the country’s media are facing harsh criticism from users, service providers and the European Union.

Turkey’s new broadcast law says ISPs could be face fines up to $195,000 (E210,000) for any libelous comments or “lying news” published on the web. As part of the new legislation, websites may have to be officially registered and submit their material to authorities for approval.

Until recently, the internet has been exempt from the same tough penalties as newspapers and broadcasters, which has allowed websites to criticise the government and publish news their mainstream media colleagues couldn’t.

Service providers and web publishers say they’re worried the new regulations, which give the Supreme Radio and Television Board control over the internet, will kill Turkey’s booming online community.

"There's not going to be a certain direction, no freedom of speech and this is going to impact the local content and local hosting services and eventually the whole internet sector," Savas Unsal, managing director of the country’s biggest ISP, Superonline, told the BBC. "They might easily put me and my chairman out of business."

Fikret Ilkiz, lawyer for Turkish daily paper Cumhuriyet criticised the new law for being to general, leaving the door open for authorities to prosecute ISPs for comments written in chatrooms.

"The way the law is now, it will be defined by many court cases,” he said. “For now, there is great uncertainty. No one knows what is legal and what is not. It is chaos."

But the country’s Minister of Transport and Communications, Oktay Vural, said the law isn’t meant to be restrictive, only to add a measure of regulation to the internet. “ We cannot be an eye in the chatrooms; that is not the aim of that law.”

However, Turkey’s Constitutional Court may opt to repeal the law after pressure from the European Union and Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who said the legislation violated the constitution.