8 July 2002

1. "Turkey's senior coalition partner proposes early elections", the senior partner in Turkey's ruling three-party coalition on Sunday proposed there should be early elections in November to end the political uncertainty triggered by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's ill health, Anatolia news agency reported.

2. "I will not resign, says Ecevit", Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit says he does not intend to step down, despite suffering from poor health.

3. "Turks Face Hard Week After Govt Partner Urges Polls", ailing Turkish premier Bulent Ecevit's rightwing coalition allies have pulled the political rug from under his feet, demanding early elections and pitching the country and fragile financial markets into uncertainty.

4. "Kurds wary of uprising against Saddam", thousands died when they heeded U.S. calls in 1991.

5. "Top court to deliberate on HADEP objections in closure case", the Constitutional Court tomorrow will begin deliberating on objections made by the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP), a move forward in a legal case that could shut down Turkey's only legal Kurdish grouping.

6. "Cyprus talks at make-or-break junction", hopes fading the direct talks process between the two veteran leaders of the two peoples of the eastern Mediterranean island, aimed at providing a resolution to the almost four-decade-old problem, has reached a make-or-break point, and hopes for a breakthrough anytime soon are fading fast.

1. - AFP - "Turkey's senior coalition partner proposes early elections":

ANKARA / 7 July 2002

The senior partner in Turkey's ruling three-party coalition on Sunday proposed there should be early elections in November to end the political uncertainty triggered by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's ill health, Anatolia news agency reported.

Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli, who heads the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), said parliament should be summoned from summer recess on September 1 and decide whether to hold early elections. "Let us go to elections in 60 days, as was done in the past, and set an election date of November 3," Bahceli told reporters in the northwestern province of Bursa where he was attending a party function, Anatolia reported.

"This would mean taking Turkey to elections soundly under a government headed by the prime minister," he added. Bahceli justified his proposal by the severe fluctuations in the financial markets sparked by fears of political turmoil. The Turkish stock exchange has plunged, interest rates have climbed and the Turkish lira has weakened against the dollar on fears that 77-year-old Ecevit's deteriorating health -- which has kept him away from his desk for the past two months -- could trigger a political crisis and derail crucial economic reforms backed by massive loans from the International Monetary Fund.

"There is a steady increase in interest and exchange rates, despite recent improvements in macro-economic indicators and the government's continued commitment to fulfill its duties," Bahceli said. "This situation has been blamed on political uncertainty, a concept that has not been fully explained," he added. Bahceli's surprise proposal came amid persistent rejections from the ruling coalition to mounting calls for it to step down and bring elections forward from 2004.

On Thursday, the three coalition party leaders -- Ecevit, Bahceli and their junior partner Mesut Yilmaz -- issued a joint statement to say they would stay in power until their mandate ended in 2004 and had no plans for early elections.

2. - CNN - "I will not resign, says Ecevit":

ANKARA / 7 July 2002

Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit says he does not intend to step down, despite suffering from poor health.

The 77-year-old premier, who was hospitalised twice in May and has been recovering at home since then, has faced mounting calls to resign.

On Sunday, Turkey's nationalist Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli called for an early general election to be held in November.

Bahceli was quoted by state-run Anatolian news agency as saying parliament, now in summer recess, should hold an extraordinary session on September 3 and vote to hold early elections.

Financial markets have been hit by fears that his illnesses could lead to a political vacuum at a time when Turkey is trying to implement economic reforms tied to $30 billion in International Monetary Fund loans.

"I have no intention to resign at this time," Ecevit told CNN Turk on Sunday.

"For me to resign I would have had to have made mistakes, acted in a way that would have hurt Turkey.

"Just the opposite ... this three-way government has brought solutions to long-outstanding issues facing Turkey."

Ecevit cited progress the left-right government had made in winning European Union candidacy in 1999 and lowering chronic inflation to drag Turkey out of its worst recession since 1945.

But divisions have deepened within the governing coalition over political reforms Turkey must tackle to meet EU standards.

The government's nationalist wing has refused to support moves to abolish the death penalty and expand cultural rights for Turkey's 12 million Kurds.

Some analysts have said the markets might now prefer that the prime minister appoint a successor and step down before political uncertainty further undermines economic recovery.

"I don't understand this logic," Ecevit said when asked about the market reaction to his two-month illness.

"When a country's prime minister is recovering from illness, this should affect the economy positively, not negatively ... I think the recent rise in (debt) yields come from other, not very rational or reasonable causes," he said.

"I want to know what my failure is, why I need to resign."

Ecevit has been premier five times, which he said had taught him to realise when it was time to go.

"I've stepped down when I've seen it was the necessary period for me to resign. Therefore, there is no need for anyone to remind me when to resign," he said.

Ecevit is recovering from circulatory problems, a spinal disorder, a cracked rib and a neuromuscular condition.

He said his health was now good, but his spinal problem would need more weeks to heal.

"I hope to receive within a few days approval from my doctors to freely return to all activities," he said.

3. - Reuters - "Turks Face Hard Week After Govt Partner Urges Polls":

ANKARA / 8 July 2002 / by Ralph Boulton

Ailing Turkish premier Bulent Ecevit's rightwing coalition allies have pulled the political rug from under his feet, demanding early elections and pitching the country and fragile financial markets into uncertainty.

Turkish newspapers were united in surprise at the call for November polls, with Hurriyet comparing it to an earthquake and Cumhuriyet likening it to a bomb hitting crisis-wracked Turkey.

Radikal said the rightist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) had "drawn its weapon" against Ecevit. There was no going back. Analysts said markets should fall on Monday on fears upheaval could derail a $16 billion IMF-backed crisis plan and further hinder rights reforms to meet European Union criteria. Only last week, the leaders of the three-party coalition had pledged to see the government through its "natural life" to April, 2004.

Deputy prime minister and MHP chief Devlet Bahceli appeared to make a complete U-turn on Sunday. Political uncertainty, he said, was seen as a barrier to implementing the economic crisis program. Parliament should be recalled from summer recess in September.

"Let's announce the election date for November 3...In this situation, the prime minister would be in charge of a government that would see through healthy elections," he said.

Newspapers speculated Bahceli had suspected moves by longtime Ecevit confidante, deputy premier Husamettin Ozkan, to ease the MHP out of government and ally with the conservative True Path (DYP) opposition. Thus he had seized the initiative. Bahceli's call came as a particular blow to Ecevit, 77, who only hours earlier had declared he had no intention of resigning and predicted his coalition would hold despite all speculation.

Anything better than present uncertainty?

Elections do not become inevitable with Bahceli's remarks, but pressure is very strong. Ecevit could comply with Bahceli's proposals or attempt to form another government without the MHP.

This might even be a minority administration and could, for instance, draw on the DYP of former premier Tansu Ciller. Ciller has hinted she would support rights reforms opposed by the MHP but promoted by Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP) and the Motherland coalition partner as a step toward membership talks with the European Union (EU). Progress with the EU is vital to lure foreign investment.

Ecevit insists he is recovering from a bout of illnesses that have included spinal problems, a nervous-muscular condition and fractured ribs. His problems are compounded by signs of bitter division in his own party over a possible succession. Ecevit said on Sunday he was saddened by what he called deputy premier Ozkan's failure to speak out in his support. Markets, falling since Ecevit fell ill two months ago amid growing government division, may see a rocky day on Monday. "This might cause a run on the lira, since the situation could create concern there will be a deviation from the (financial) program," Alp Tekince, General Manager of Ekinciler Securities said. "The most important thing, though, is the political structure that would emerge after elections."

Bond yields have widened 20 percentage points to over 70 percent since April, raising the high cost of government debt. The lira could now break all-time lows against the dollar.

Sevdil Yildirim, Head of International Capital Markets at Yapi Kredi Investment in Istanbul said she expected a fall on markets in the immediate term. However, speculation about early elections had already been factored in over recent weeks.

"There is a surprise element about this," she said. "But if this issue can be finalized and resolved in a short time period, then so much the better for everyone."

Many now believe anything is better than the present political weakness and uncertainty in Ankara. Opinion polls at the moment, however, show government parties, their popularity hit by the unemployment and poverty caused by last year's financial crisis, could fall below the 10 percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation. The shape of a future government is by no means clear.

4. - The New York Times - "Kurds wary of uprising against Saddam":

Thousands died when they heeded U.S. calls in 1991

ERBIL / 8 July 2002

As the United States considers ways of accomplishing President Bush's call for an end to Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq, Washington's goal of a "regime change" in Baghdad is running into strong reservations from Iraqi Kurdish leaders who would be crucial allies in any military campaign.

These leaders, interviewed in their strongholds across northern Iraq in the last week, have said flatly that they would be reluctant to join U.S. military operations that put Kurds at risk of an onslaught by Iraqi troops of the kind they suffered after the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

A Kurdish uprising then that was encouraged by the first President Bush was brutally suppressed by Saddam, and U.S. forces failed to intervene as thousands of Kurds were killed.

No group has suffered more from Saddam's 23-year-old rule than the Kurds, who lost tens of thousands of lives in Iraqi military offensives in the 1980s and 1990s.

Still, no Iraqis have benefited more from Western support in the last decade than the Kurds.

Protected by a "safe haven" declared by the United Nations and a "no-fly zone" patrolled by U.S. and British warplanes, the Kurds, with barely 40,000 troops and only light weapons, have built a 17,000-square- mile ministate that stretches across a 500-mile expanse of Iraqi territory that borders Syria, Turkey and Iran.

But although a U.S.-led military campaign to topple Saddam holds out the possibility of making their newfound freedoms more secure, the Kurdish leaders, backed by almost every Kurd who discussed the issue, said Washington would be asking them to put all they have gained from their decade of autonomy at risk of a fresh Iraqi offensive.

5. - Turkish Daily News - "Top court to deliberate on HADEP objections in closure case":

ANKARA / 8 July 2002

The Constitutional Court tomorrow will begin deliberating on objections made by the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP), a move forward in a legal case that could shut down Turkey's only legal Kurdish grouping.

HADEP, charged with acting as a front for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), has appealed to the high court claiming constitutional violations in five articles of the Political Parties Law.

The court is expected to proceed with the case after ruling on HADEP's objections to the articles related to protecting the democratic order, independence and the principle of the country's unity, the ban on racism and forming new minorities.

The closure case has dragged on for more than three years, since former chief prosecutor Vural Savas filed the charges against HADEP in January 1999. Party officials reject the accusations.

The court decision to handle HADEP's objections coincided with the increased expectations of changes in the political landscape amid reports of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's deteriorating health.

European Union candidate Turkey has been under fire from its European allies for failing to meet EU standards on democracy and human rights for membership in the 15-nation club. HADEP's predecessors, the HEP and the DEP, were previously closed down on similar charges.

6. - Turkish Daily News - "Cyprus talks at make-or-break junction":

Hopes fading the direct talks process between the two veteran leaders of the two peoples of the eastern Mediterranean island, aimed at providing a resolution to the almost four-decade-old problem, has reached a make-or-break point, and hopes for a breakthrough anytime soon are fading fast

Deadlock on refugees Clerides' insistence that a settlement must allow all Greek Cypriots, who migrated from north to south in 1974, to return to their former homes, and the Turkish refusal on the grounds that such a move would kill the bi-zonal nature of the new state, lands the talks in an impasse

The role of the UNFICYP Another disagreement concerns the post-settlement role of the UN force in Cyprus. Clerides insists that the UN force be given permanent status and power to enforce the implementation of the Cyprus accord. Denktas says that it is unacceptable and contradicts the sovereignty of the new state

ANKARA / 8 July 2002 / by Yusuf Kanli

The direct talks aimed at resolving the almost four-decade-old Cyprus problem paused last week to allow the United Nations to take stock of the slow-moving process and to allow the two leaders to reassess their positions. This has landed the talks in an impasse once again, sources with insight into the talks told the Turkish Daily News (TDN).

The sources said that the talks between Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) President Rauf Denktas and his Greek Cypriot counterpart, Glafcos Clerides, have reached a make-or-break point, and that hopes for a breakthrough anytime soon were fading fast.

Confirming that there has been "substantive progress" in the talks regarding almost all key issues, except for the return of refugees and the future role of the United Nations force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), the sources stressed that unless the Greek Cypriot side modified its uncompromising stance on both of these issues, the talks were doomed to collapse.

"We are at a make-or-break point. We shall continue negotiating in good faith, but it takes two to tango. If the other side insists on its uncompromising demands, continues pretending to negotiate magnanimously in order to persuade both the UN and the EU that they have done everything possible but that their efforts were regrettably not enough to overcome Turkish Cypriot intransigence, how are we going to succeed in establishing a new partnership state?" the sources asked.

Clerides' insistence that a settlement must allow all Greek Cypriots, who migrated from north to south in 1974, to return to their former homes, and the Turkish refusal on the grounds that such a move would kill the bi-zonal nature of the new state, was the most important sticking point, landing the talks in an impasse, if not a deadlock.

Stressing that, in line with the 1975 Population Exchange Agreement and the 1977 High Level Agreement between President Denktas and then Greek Cypriot leader Archbishop Makarios, entrenching bi-zonality as a principle in a comprehensive settlement, the Turkish Cypriot side has offered to settle the property issue on the basis of a global exchange of property and/or compensation, the sources said that the Greek Cypriot side, however, with an uncompromising attitude, has been demanding the return of all refugees to their previous homes, because without such an agreement, the Greek Cypriots would not approve the accord in a referendum.

Explaining that over the years the Turkish Cypriot side has kept on calling for the Greek Cypriot leadership to resolve the property issue by establishing a "Joint Property Claims Commission," the sources said that because of the intransigent attitude of consecutive Greek Cypriot administrations and the tendency of the Greek Cypriot side to use the property claims issue as a political tool, Turkish Cypriots were compelled to take their own measures and to resolve their own part of the problem. Thus, the sources said, through the "Equivalent Property Law," Turkish Cypriots, who migrated in 1974 and 1975 to northern Cyprus or who were made refugees in the 1963-1974 period, were given title deeds to property left in the north by Greek Cypriots to compensate for their property left in the south.

If, the sources said, rather than continuing to exploit this humanitarian subject, the Greek Cypriot leadership followed the example of northern Cyprus, the two sides could, in that way, provide a global exchange and/or compensation settlement on the property issue.

The Greek Cypriot insistence on the return of all refugees to their former homes would not only contradict the bi-zonality principle and undermine a settlement, it would disturb the existing social fabric in northern Cyprus and create new refugees. In view of the fact that most of the Turkish Cypriot population, made refugees three times since 1963, would be asked to become refugees once again if the Greek Cypriot demand were accepted, the sources said that such a development would annihilate the prospect of a Cyprus accord being approved in northern Cyprus in a referendum.

The Greek Cypriot demand, on the other hand, that the UNFICYP remain permanently on the island after a settlement to "enforce" the implementation of the Cyprus accord, sources said, did not conform to the principle of sovereignty, but rather, if accepted, would make the island a protectorate of the United Nations.

The intention behind the Greek Cypriot demand, the sources said, was suspected to be the desire to achieve the return of all refugees to their previous homes through an indirect method. "What would happen if, under the Constitution's 'Equality of all citizens principle,' a Greek Cypriot applied to the court and was given the right to return. All Greek Cypriot refugees, using that ruling as a precedent, would try to return to the north, and the Greek Cypriots would use the 'UNFICYP will enforce the implementation of the accord' clause of the agreement to achieve their aim. That's the plot that we saw," the sources said, also disclosing that Turkish Cypriots would not oppose the UNFICYP's staying for a few more months or a year on the island after a settlement to monitor and verify the demilitarization of the two founding states of the new partnership state.

The sources said the Greek Cypriot's intransigent attitude on these two issues was the most prominent in a set of factors that have landed the talks in a "confidence crisis," apart from the Clerides administration's persistent disinterest in reaching a settlement.

The sources said the continued international recognition of the Greek Cypriot leadership as the "sole legitimate government" of the entire island remained the fundamental obstacle for a new power-sharing deal on the eastern Mediterranean island.