3 July 2002

1. "Return of the "Sick Man", Ecevit is the latest embodiment of the immortal metaphor of the "Sick Man on the Bosporus."

2. "Conservative Ciller seeks way back in from cold", as the weak government stumbles towards possible early elections, conservative opposition leader Tansu Ciller is back; and she is, she says, on a "historic mission" to salvage Turkish democracy and the country's place in Europe.

3. "Cyprus peace talks take break for UN review", peace talks aimed at reuniting Cyprus were to pause on Tuesday for the United Nations to take stock of the slow-moving process which could make or break European Union enlargement within the next six months.

4. "Sept. 13 seen as the deadline for EU reforms", as the time runs for the fulfillment of the reforms for the European Union (EU), Turkish diplomats consider Sept. 13 as the real deadline for the completion of the work for the EU.

5. "Turkey Premier Tries to Ease Concern", Turkey's ailing premier ruled out early elections and said Monday that disagreements within his coalition over the country's bid to join the European Union would not endanger the government.

6. "1988 gassing still killing Iraqi Kurds", chemical attack causing cancers, multitude of other illnesses.

1. - Neue Züricher Zeitung - "Return of the "Sick Man":

2 July 2002 / by Andres Wysling

A fragile old man on shaky legs: that was the TV image presented recently by Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. He was in hospital when the Turkish soccer team played in the World Cup semifinals - and lost after a tough fight. Ecevit is the latest embodiment of the immortal metaphor of the "Sick Man on the Bosporus." Sharp-penned newspaper commentators are speculating about the state of his health and expressing doubts about the government's ability to act; they offer cheap diagnoses of the patient's condition and advice on how to improve the nation's political state. The general public in Turkey is also playing the game, with merciless jokes and bon mots. The Turkish stock market is shaky, its prices fluctuating, the trend generally downward.

It is no sign of political stability when the illness of a single politician throws an entire country into a tailspin. Turkey has not yet overcome its severe recession; macroeconomic data show it, and the man on the street feels it in daily rising prices. Now there is an additional obstacle to recovery, in the form of a nascent political crisis. According to the pundits, if Ecevit bows out as prime minister the government will collapse and new elections will become unavoidable.

Polls show that it is the Islamist, Kurdish and right-wing extremist parties that will emerge strengthened from that balloting. All of them are forces which call into question the fundamentals of Turkish political life. They all reject the prevailing state ideology (which is based on the thinking of Atatürk and defines Turkey as a secular, centralist, unitary state with a single national population). Or they reject the westernization of the country's cultural and social life, and most specifically Turkey's drawing closer to the European Union. EU membership is a goal which has dominated Turkish politics over the past two decades, and it continues to enjoy the support of most of the people.

Is the Turkish state threatened by these diverse forces, as warning voices proclaim in almost apocalyptic terms? Or are the ruling elites simply afraid of losing their positions and privileges? Oddly enough, the right-wing extremists are not perceived as a threat to the system. Yet the Gray Wolves made a stab at civil war 20 years ago. Since then they have moderated their tone, and are now part of the coalition government. But their nationalist-chauvinist arrogance continues to hamper a peaceful resolution of the Kurdish question as well as Turkey's movement toward the European Union.

For their part, the Kurdish rebels have laid down their weapons. In addition to measures to promote economic development in their part of the country, they continue to demand the cultural rights to which they are entitled by all European standards: schooling and media conducted in their own language. In both areas, the government has made hesitant concessions. It is a laborious process; each step forward must be fought for, and without pressure from Brussels there would probably be no progress at all. But there is also some dawning insight at work (or is it merely resignation?). More and more politicians and generals are coming to realize that they cannot force the loyalty of their Kurdish citizens with the cudgel and the gun.

According to official figures, the civil war in eastern Anatolia has cost more than 35,000 lives and 100 billion dollars. More than 4,000 villages and hamlets are thought to have been destroyed. After 15 years of violence and devastation, both parties to the conflict are exhausted. The situation has eased somewhat, the years-long state of emergency has been lifted in most provinces, and today a settlement of the conflict seems possible. The basic outlines of an agreement would have to include the following: the Turks relinquish their illusion of a unitary people in a homogeneous nation, and the Kurds give up their wishful thinking about an independent state of their own. Separation would in any case bring them grave disadvantages, because so many of the country's Kurds have resettled in the urban centers of western Turkey.

The Turkish Islamists are hard to figure. A few of them adhere to a social model fundamentally different from Western concepts. But their mainstream claims to be an "Islamic-democratic" party. So far, Turkey's Islamists have played by democratic ground rules. In 1997 they won an election and formed a government - an experiment which was brought to an end undemocratically by army decree. Partly out of fear of the military, they support entry into the European Union, which they hope would help tame Turkey's overly powerful generals. The Islamists probably cannot be politically marginalized over the long haul. Turkey is an almost exclusively Muslim country, and despite its officially secular doctrine religion plays an unmistakably important role in politics and society, with modern and conservative currents competing for influence.

When it comes to Turkish membership in the European Union, the subject of Islam and Islamism will inevitably come up for discussion on the European side as well. So far, politicians and diplomats there have anxiously avoided it. Yet this may be the chief obstacle which could bring down the entire project. It is not a question of political, economic or strategic problems which could be handled technocratically through negotiations and pacts, but rather of the general public's perception of differences in religion and culture. In the case of Turkey, the land bridge to Asia, the question "Where does Europe end?" poses itself in more than just geographic terms. And there is no definitive answer, no unequivocal criteria. In recent months, the government and legislature in Ankara have been working to fulfill EU requirements for the start of negotiations on membership, adjusting the country's constitution and laws to better conform to European standards. Some milestones have already been passed; to cite just one, men and women are now equal before the law. But the parliament is now off on its summer break, and efforts at reform have come to a standstill. Using the Kurdish language in schoolrooms is still forbidden. The new media law is actually a censorship law, and there are journalists still in prison because of articles they wrote. The requirement of eliminating capital punishment has not been met - though it has been years since anyone sentenced to death was actually executed in Turkey. And the problem of Cyprus is a very tough nut to crack; the way to a political solution is being sought, but has not yet been found.

Various reforms are being accelerated because Brussels demands it as part of its pre-membership strategy. But it is not only outside pressure that is at work there. Turkey's economy and society are in the process of being thoroughly shaken up, and that is also generating internal pressure for reform. The old men who still dominate the country's political life - including those in military uniform - can no longer evade that pressure. A younger, impatient generation is pushing for the nation to develop and progress in a westerly direction. That is clearly the majority desire. For all its problems, Turkey is a vital country.

First published in German, June 29, 2002

2. - Reuters - "Conservative Ciller seeks way back in from cold":

As the weak government stumbles towards possible early elections, conservative opposition leader Tansu Ciller is back; and she is, she says, on a "historic mission" to salvage Turkish democracy and the country's place in Europe.

Five years on, Ciller undoubtedly retains a magnetism. To find her at a crowded state reception, push your way to the epicentre of the biggest knot of male dignitaries. She works the crowd, smiling, pressing hands. She is tastefully dressed, self-assured. She looks deep into the eyes of her interlocutor.

3 July 2002 / by Ralph Boulton

She angered Turkish generals and sowed outrage in the middle classes as the midwife of Turkey's first Islamist-led government. In an army-led drive that shook the country, she was banished from office into political limbo.

Now, five years later, as a weak government stumbles towards possible early elections, conservative opposition leader Tansu Ciller is back; and she is, she says, on a "historic mission" to salvage Turkish democracy and the country's place in Europe.

Her enemies, and there are many, scoff, seeing her as someone who came close to sabotaging both.

"I feel I'm very strong, right now," said 56-year-old Ciller in an interview with Reuters. "Many people also feel I have come to a maturity in my political career."

Ailing premier Bulent Ecevit sees Ciller's opposition True Path Party (DYP) as key to rights reforms vital for Turkey's age-old dream of European integration. His own fractious rightist coalition allies refuse support in parliament.

The DYP has emerged, after a split in the Islamist bloc, as the biggest opposition group with 84 of 550 parliamentary seats.

"Her party is certainly enjoying this situation after the humiliations of the past. It likes the legitimisation this brings," said Murat Yetkin, a commentator with Radikal daily.

"Whether she can turn that to influence is another matter."

Ciller's face framed by ash blonde hair beams from papers and television screens. Her opinion is sought. She toys with the government, hinting at support while describing the weak, frail prime minister who courts her as "the greatest obstacle" to EU dreams.

Dramatic, painful process

Ciller's party is one of the few that might clear the 10 percent threshold in polls. Her support in rural areas may hold strong and she could even win back some voters who defected at the 1999 election to Ecevit's Nationalist Action Party (MHP) partners.

But memories of 1997 die hard among both liberals and arch- conservatives alarmed by her flirtation with political Islam.

"It was a very dramatic and painful process for me," Ciller said of the pressure from the army, business and media that led to the collapse of the government of Islamist Necmettin Erbakan in which she served as deputy premier. History was made; no tanks rolled as had happened in the past, but the generals' will was done.

"Dramatic. Very painful." She paused, her eyes intense. When she arrived in politics from academia in the early 1990s, Ciller was for many a fresh breeze airing a world dominated by all-too-familiar, tired male faces. She was young, attractive, lively, articulate, U.S.-educated. Her Western ways clashed with Erbakan's view of a woman -- modest, pious in dress and manner and unassuming. But he also saw her as a means to an end -- the premier's office. .

After a spell as Turkey's first woman prime minister, sealing a landmark customs union with the EU, she made her pact with the man she had labelled a "symbol of backwardness".

The conservative establishment, especially the army, saw Erbakan as a man bent on destroying Turkish democracy and imposing religious sharia law. Many liberal middle class Turks, especially women, saw Ciller's role as a particular betrayal.

Her alliance with a man so steeped in anti-EU and anti-Western rhetoric also raised eyebrows in Europe.

Five years on, Ciller undoubtedly retains a magnetism. To find her at a crowded state reception, push your way to the epicentre of the biggest knot of male dignitaries. She works the crowd, smiling, pressing hands. She is tastefully dressed, self-assured. She looks deep into the eyes of her interlocutor.

Disappointed her lessons forgotten by people

Ciller feels history has dealt her an injustice. She was "cornered" into allying with Erbakan's Welfare Party. Potential secularist allies turned away, parliament refused her elections.

She says that in allying with Islamists she had done only what many Turkish political leaders, including Ecevit, had done before her.

True. The difference was however that in this case the Islamists played no junior role but took the post of prime minister.

"I thought at least I could do one thing so that I could live with my conscience; that was to show people what these (militant Islamists)...really are, and I think they were exposed to a great extent," she said.

She is, she says, disappointed that the Turkish people have not learnt the lesson she offered. Opinion polls now show the AK Party, a successor to Welfare, as by far the strongest.

The army, seen widely as the guardian of a frail democracy stewarded by weak politicians, might not be alone in seeing her not as victim or teacher but as miscreant in the affair.

"The armed forces are always in opposition to this kind of thing (political Islam), which I respect," Ciller said.

"But I also respect democracy."

She feels victimised in her fall from grace, exonerated over subsequent accusations of financial misconduct. Mutual charges of corruption with conservative rival Mesut Yilmaz still cast a political shadow over her.

"The military were against me, the government was against me, the finance ministry; everybody. I was actually charged with certain court cases in Germany because of drugs and I don't even know what drugs look like to be frank about it."

"I fought and I won."

Ciller speaks as someone only at the start of a hard struggle back to power and well aware of her enemies

"We still have obstacles, problems in communication with the media," she said with a laugh that tapered off quickly.

Would she, after everything, entertain an alliance with AK?

"I would try to do everything -- better new elections -- rather than form a coalition with any of those parties again." But she says the 80 percent secularist majority is riven with rivalry allowing the other 20 percent disproportionate power.

Radical reform to a French-style system of two-tier polls would end this and save other politicians the cup she says was forced upon her. "If this parliament doesn't do it but if I win and come (to power), that will be the first thing I'll do."

She would, she says, pursue an historic mission to bring Turkey into the EU.

In turning to her for support on the EU, Ecevit has signalled what might be the start of Tansu Ciller's return to grace. She knows better, however, than to expect political charity from those she once crossed so dramatically.

3. - Reuters - "Cyprus peace talks take break for UN review":

NICOSIA / 3 July 2002

Peace talks aimed at reuniting Cyprus were to pause on Tuesday for the United Nations to take stock of the slow-moving process which could make or break European Union enlargement within the next six months.

The talks have already overshot an end-June target to crack key issues and negotiations are expected to take on more urgency for a deal by December, when Brussels decides on its next expansion, including Cyprus.

Turkey, which seized the northern part of the island in 1974 after a brief Greek-inspired coup, has warned it could annex the breakaway territory if enlargement includes Cyprus. Greece, which is a member of the EU, says it will use its veto powers to block any enlargement that does not include the island.

Cyprus is a frontrunner among a group of 10 mainly east and central European countries expected to be included in the next EU expansion from 2004 onwards.

Greek Cypriot leader Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas are still deeply divided on a host of issues ranging from governance to distribution of territory and security issues.

"Before, we were looking at a target," said one dipomat, referring to the end of June. "Now we are looking at deadlines. Working out the details after an agreement is reached on the main points is enormous. It can't wait for the last four or five days."

Denktas and Clerides were due to meet on Tuesday before U.N. envoy Alvaro de Soto leaves for New York on Wednesday. The talks are set to resume in mid-July after de Soto briefs the Security Council on July 9.

The veteran leaders began meeting each week in January, but little tangible progress has been made in ending the stalemate.

The Greek Cypriots' government is recognised as the only legitimate authority on the island. They want the creation of two federated states linked by a central government. The Turkish Cypriots, whose breakaway state is recognised only by Ankara, want a union of two largely independent states linked by a central administration whose powers would be drawn from the two entities.

"For the Greek Cypriots its sovereignty from the top going to the bottom, whereas its from the bottom up for the Turkish Cypriots," said a long-time observer of Cyprus affairs.

4. - Turkish Daily News - "Sept. 13 seen as the deadline for EU reforms":

ANKARA / 3 July 2002 / by Saadet Oruc

As the time runs for the fulfillment of the reforms for the European Union (EU), Turkish diplomats consider Sept. 13 as the real deadline for the completion of the work for the EU.

Turkey will report about the work done for the EU criteria on Sept. 13 for the last draft version of the Progress Report to be released by the EU Commission.

Turkish diplomats evaluated the statement made after Monday's summit of the coalition leaders from the positive side.

In reference to the phrase of the statement that Parliament will be called for an extraordinary session, diplomats said that time should be evaluated for the best way.

President Ahmet Necdet Sezer is also following the developments very closely and is expecting both the government and Parliament to handle the issue carefully, sources say.

Since he considers the EU affairs as an issue, which should be taken out of the political calculations, the president thinks fulfillment of the political criteria for the EU should be soon.

The Progress Report of the EU Commission will be released on Oct. 19.

Diplomats were not pessimistic concerning the critical three months ahead.

The statement released after the coalition leaders summit held Monday said that the government had fulfilled a major part of the short-term priorities for the EU.

"Necessary preparations will be carried out for the completion of the remaining parts. After the fulfillment of the work, Parliament will be called for an extraordinary session," the statement said.

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, Motherland Party (ANAP) leader Mesut Yilmaz and the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) sat yesterday to discuss the key topics, especially the EU affairs, which were seemed to be shelved due to the faltering health situation of the prime minister.

The winds of early elections in Ankara are also considered to be a serious factor blocking the EU reforms.

5. - AP - "Turkey Premier Tries to Ease Concern":

ANKARA / 2 July 2002 / by Suzan Fraser

Turkey's ailing premier ruled out early elections and said Monday that disagreements within his coalition over the country's bid to join the European Union would not endanger the government.

After meeting with his coalition partners for the first time in more than 40 days, Bulent Ecevit, 77, said they agreed there should be no elections before 2004, the next regularly scheduled vote.

"In the next two years, ahead of us, we will complete more legislation," Ecevit told reporters.

The talks, which lasted three hours, were intended to present a united front and appease markets concerned about the future of the government.

"This government has a great ability to reach consensus," Ecevit said.

Turkey's financial markets have plunged in recent weeks amid fears that Ecevit may be forced to withdraw because of health problems.

Ecevit has been away from his office for two months after a number of ailments, including a spinal injury that will keep him working from home for two to three more weeks.

Asked whether his health would allow him to run the country during the next two years, Ecevit said: "This is not a press conference. I am not in a position to say more."

Ecevit has no clear successor and his possible departure could lead to the fall of his government, trigger elections and derail an International Monetary Fund-back economic recovery program.

Ecevit's speech sounded slurred as he spoke and he confused words several times.

He also initially confused the date of the next scheduled elections.

"This government will be on top of its duties until the next elections in 2003," Ecevit said, only to correct himself after journalists asked for clarification.

In Ecevit's absence, his two coalition partners have been publicly squabbling over reforms the country needs to carry out for membership in the European Union.

Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli, the nationalist leader, is opposing EU-required reforms, including abolishing the death penalty and granting education and broadcast in the Kurdish language. He has threatened to withdraw from government rather than back the measures.

The nationalists renewed that threat Monday. Murat Sokmenoglu, the deputy parliamentary speaker, said his Nationalist Action Party would not feature in the coalition if Ecevit enacted laws to legalize Kurdish education and broadcasts with the help of votes from opposition parties.

But the government sought to play down such disputes in a written statement after the meeting.

"EU membership is our national target ... coalition parties will definitely not allow those studies to negatively affect the government's future," the statement said.

6. - San Fransisco Chronicle - "1988 gassing still killing Iraqi Kurds":

Chemical attack causing cancers, multitude of other illnesses

HALABJA / 1 July 2002 / by Joshua Kucera

Omar Ali Mohammed has terminal skin cancer. His wife has a chronic eye problem, and their young nephew has a nasty growth jutting out of his neck.

Doctors believe all three suffer from the aftereffects of the largest chemical attack on a civilian population in history -- the assault on this Kurdish town 14 years ago ordered by Saddam Hussein.

As President Bush continues his campaign to topple the Iraqi strongman, he often refers to the 1988 poison gas attack here as an example of Hussein’s willingness to use weapons of mass destruction. Bush has said, "He even gassed his own people."

In 1987, Hussein intensified his fight against ethnic Kurds for their support of Iran during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, bulldozing some 4,000 villages and using a combination of nerve agents, mustard gas and possibly biological weapons on several towns. The 4 million Kurds living in northern Iraq have a different culture and language from Iraqi Arabs and have fought for independence for decades.

Human Rights Watch estimates that 500,000 to 100,000 people died during the campaign. But the assault on Halabja and other Iraqi repression received little attention from the administration of then-President Ronald Reagan, which backed Iraq over Iran.

"The Western countries in 1988 didn’t do anything against the Iraqi regime, " said Dr. Adil Karem, director of the Halabja Martyrs Hospital.

"Now they use the Halabja issue for their own benefit," he added, referring to Bush’s citing of the incident.

Indeed, the international community has long ignored the plight of victims of the chemical attack.

On March 16, 1988, Mohammed was walking to a small plot of land just outside town to tend to his fruit trees and beehives when Iraqi jets dropped a variety of chemical weapons, which experts believe included mustard gas, sarin,

VX nerve gas and aflatoxin dissolved in tear gas. Fortunately, nobody from Mohammed’s family perished, but he saw "people die from the chemical weapons, and we knew it would hurt us too."

Up to 7.000 killes instantly

Experts estimate that between 5,000 and 7,000 residents were killed immediately while tens of thousands more were exposed over the years by drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food. A photograph of a man shielding an infant with his body -- both were killed by the gas -- has become an icon of Kurdish suffering and a monument here.

Halabja, a city some 150 miles northeast of Baghdad in the southern part of so-called Iraqi Kurdistan, is situated at the foot of mountains that separate Iraq from Iran. It is below the 36th parallel and thus outside the protected area of the American and British fighter-patrolled U.N. "no-fly" zone established after the Gulf War. Hussein, however, has not attacked any Kurdish- controlled areas since the war.

Halabja was once a vibrant market town of 80,000. Today, the population has dwindled to about 43,000. Doctors say residents suffer from a range of cancers,

respiratory disorders such as asthma and pulmonary fibrosis, skin rashes, birth defects, Down syndrome, infertility and mental health problems.

Christine Gosden, head of Medical Genetics at Liverpool University in northwest England, is one of the few scientists to research the aftermath of the 1988 attack. She estimates that more than half the population suffers from respiratory problems and that major chromosomal disorders such as cleft palates and spina bifida appear in three times the number of people than in the nearby city of Sulaymaniyah, 10 times the size of Halabja.

Karem complains that Halabja’s remote location and political instability have thwarted research projects. Aside from individuals such as Gosden, he says there has never been a systematic testing of the lasting effects on the water table, air, food chain and animals.

He says that Halabja hasn’t even had its soil measured for chemical residue.

In Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where the levels of congenital malformations, sterility, cancer and mutations were comparable, some 3 feet of soil was removed after the atomic bomb was dropped in 1945.

Chemical companie's liability

Karem adds that most laboratories that specialize in such research belong to government defense departments. Since many of the chemicals were manufactured in the West -- including the United States -- companies there could face legal claims if the results were well documented.

Karem and Gosden co-wrote a 1998 study of the aftereffects of the Halabja incident. It showed that the situation gets worse each year as the chemicals alter a victim’s DNA.

The Kurdish physician pointed out that in April, there were four stillborn and four anencephalic (born without most of the brain) babies out of 108 deliveries. "Even two years ago, it was not like this," he said.

The report also showed that the gas attack had a profound psychological effect in a city that lacks even a single mental health worker.

Depression and anxiety are common, and the rates of suicide are higher than average. It is not uncommon for some people to feel the need to keep a suitcase packed in case of another gas attack.

In 1999, Karem asked the World Health Organization to do an environmental study but was told the subject was too "sensitive." Although the Kurds run the local government, U.N. agencies are here by invitation of the Iraqi government, and such research could alienate their hosts.

Although new and clean, Halabja Martyrs Hospital lacks basic equipment such as surgical gloves and antibiotics, let alone chemotherapy to treat cancer or equipment to transplant a diseased lung. As a result, victims like Mohammed, now 84, receive no treatment and die slowly at home.

Mohammed, however, will not die in peace. He has a new worry -- another chemical attack by Iraqi planes if the United States opts to take out Hussein militarily. It’s a fear that is not uncommon in Halabja.

"People here have a phobia for Saddam Hussein," said Karem. "And they have a phobia for the future."