29 July 2002

1. "Turkey's political cauldron", sweat ran down my back, down the sides of my body, down my chest and down my legs. Istanbul roasts in summer. The breeze from the Bosphorous stops well short of most of the city, and in the smart meeting room in the AK Party offices, party funds aren't wasted on air conditioning.

2. "Turkish lawmakers to hold special session on early elections", the Turkish parliament was on Monday set to hold a special session to deliberate on holding early elections -- against continuing opposition from Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit -- although a vote on the issue was not likely before Wednesday, officials said. (...) he again expressed concern that elections could bring to power a popular politician with an Islamic background -- in a move which could destabilize the mainly Muslim but strictly secular country -- and also see the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP) surpass the national threshold to join parliament. "Some very serious harm could ensue to the foundations of the state system if an opportunity is now hastily given to these two institutions," Ecevit said.

3. "Turkish economy minister to resign: party official", Turkish Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, the driving force behind an IMF-backed economic program, will resign soon, a senior official from a new opposition party said in an interview published Monday.

4. "Question marks over Suceken incident", Suspicions increased that the incident in Suceken Village of Batman province where 3 people were killed on the grounds that they were member of KADEK was in fact a summary execution. Eye-witnesses stated that there was no armed conflict and the soldiers used a number of guns including LAV.

5. "Iraq Rebels, U.S. to Discuss Saddam", the United States has invited six Iraqi opposition groups to Washington next month for talks on removing Saddam Hussein, spokesmen for three of the factions said Saturday.

6. "IMF agenda likely ro previal in post-election Turkey", ailing and forced into lame-duck status by a restive parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit shot back at his country’s financial markets on July 25 by warning that the early elections he endorsed this summer would hurt the Turkish economy. Turkey’s November 3 election will come as the legislature is scrambling to pass reforms to support its application for membership in the European Union.

1. - BBC - "Turkey's political cauldron":

ANKARA / 27 July 2002 / by Jonny Dymond

Sweat ran down my back, down the sides of my body, down my chest and down my legs. Istanbul roasts in summer. The breeze from the Bosphorous stops well short of most of the city, and in the smart meeting room in the AK Party offices, party funds aren't wasted on air conditioning.

I had come to the AK Party's branch headquarters in Eminonu to look at what is supposed to be Turkey's political future first hand.

Described by its political enemies as an Islamic party, and by more neutral observers as pro-Islamist, the AK Party is, apparently, striking fear into the hearts of the country's Western allies and causing unease in the powerful military.

It is comfortably ahead of any other party in the polls and as Turkey's Government totters and sways, people are starting to think about the prospect of the AK Party actually being in government.

Pep talk

I had stumbled - by luck rather than design - into a meeting of a women's group of the party. They were discussing a forthcoming fundraising drive.

It was hardly a meeting of the devout - somewhere between half and three quarters were wearing headscarves, some being flapped furiously in the heat.

But the rest - seven or eight - were dressed much more informally, one or two in sleeveless T-shirts.

If this was an Islamic gathering it was a very Turkish form of Islam.

Downstairs, the branch chairman did his best to give a pep talk to the tea drinkers in the local cafe.

There are thousands, maybe tens of thousands of these tea shops in Istanbul - dark, men-only establishments with green baize table tops, a fug of cigarette smoke and a TV set with a washed-out picture perched in a corner.

The men smoke and play cards for hours at a time, fortified by tea served in surprisingly delicate tulip-shaped glasses.

Unpopular government

They are not particularly happy establishments. Many of the men within are unemployed. They sit all day, all week, all month, getting out of the house and going nowhere.

Their ranks have been swollen by another million this past year. Turkey's economy has gone backwards, shrinking by a tenth.

Unsurprisingly, the government is hideously unpopular. Under the current slightly crazy system of elections, none of the three parties that makes up the coalition looks like it would get a single seat in parliament.

The AK Party's message - a rather hazy one based around the charisma of its leader Tayyip Erdogan - goes down very well. But nobody says it has anything to do with Islam - many refer to the fact that when Tayyip Erdogan was mayor of Istanbul he made the city services function properly.

Maybe, they venture, he can do the same nationally. Few people have much of an idea what he actually stands for.

It is the AK Party's popularity and the fear of a wipe-out of the old order that has kept the coalition government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit clinging on despite the illness that has left him patently unable to do his job.

It was the political crisis that took me the next day away from Eminonu and the tea drinkers to Ankara, Turkey's dull administrative capital.

After announcing early elections, the prime minister gave the BBC an interview.

After months of reporting on his various illnesses and proclaiming confidently about his imminent political demise it was with some embarrassment that I shook his hand.

There is much to admire in Bulent Ecevit - he is a published poet and translator and has worked for the BBC World Service.

And in a political world frequently described as "corruption bespattered", he has quietly but firmly refused the trappings of office.

He still lives in his suburban Ankara flat - not for him the prime minister's residence. Until recently he drove around in his Turkish-made Fiat - not for him the official Mercedes.

Change of heart

If the AK Party is the future, Bulent Ecevit very definitely looks like the past - but not as far as he is concerned. He said he had been thinking of resigning but then "recent political events", as he put it, had changed his mind.

And he would certainly stand in the election that had recently been announced for November. He still had things to do he said, especially in the countryside and for rural communities.

I wanted to persuade him to change his mind - not on behalf of those I'd been talking to over the past few weeks, who would often explode with anger when I mentioned Ecevit and his incumbency. But for his own sake, for his health, and for his reputation as a decent, if now rather ineffectual man.

But in the gloom of the interview room, that wasn't my job. I packed up my gear, made sure not to shake his hand too hard, and went out in the bright Ankara sunshine.

2. - AFP - "Turkish lawmakers to hold special session on early elections":

ANKARA / 29 July 2002 / by Hande Culpan

The Turkish parliament was on Monday set to hold a special session to deliberate on holding early elections -- against continuing opposition from Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit -- although a vote on the issue was not likely before Wednesday, officials said. Just hours before the parliamentary session, the 77-year-old Ecevit, who is vehemently opposed to early polls, called on MPs from his Democratic Left Party (DSP) to vote against the proposal to hold elections on November 3.

"I think we should indicate that we are definitely against early elections," Ecevit told a meeting of his Democratic Left Party (DSP). The vote on early polls is not expected until Wednesday as the election proposal will be sent to a parliamentary commission before coming to the general assembly, deputy parliament speaker Murat Sokmenoglu told the NTV news channel. Ecevit reluctantly agreed to bring elections forward from April 2004 after mass defections wiped out his parliament majority and his senior coalition ally, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), threatened to quit the government if the vote was postponed.

But the veteran leader has maintained his opposition to early elections and at the weekend tried unsuccessfully to convince MHP leader Devlet Bahceli to delay the polls, leading Turkish newspapers reported Monday. Ecevit reiterated his view that early polls would damage crucial economic reforms backed by a 16-billion-dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at a time when the economy was showing signs of improvement. He again expressed concern that elections could bring to power a popular politician with an Islamic background -- in a move which could destabilize the mainly Muslim but strictly secular country -- and also see the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP) surpass the national threshold to join parliament. "Some very serious harm could ensue to the foundations of the state system if an opportunity is now hastily given to these two institutions," Ecevit said.

Media speculation was rife on Monday that the prime minister could resign in a last-ditch bid to prevent early elections, but Ecevit denied such a prospect on Monday. "No, I will not resign," NTV quoted him as telling reporters. The proposal for early polls has widespread support from opposition parties as well as Ecevit's two coalition parties. Many see elections as a way out of severe political turmoil which began in early May when Ecevit missed out on his official duties due to his ill health, and his shaky three-party coalition deadlocked on democracy reforms needed to advance Turkey's bid to become a European Union member. The turmoil in Ankara, a key western ally, has led to unease in Europe and the United States at a time when Washington is reported to be preparing a military strike against Turkey's southern neighbour Iraq.

The general expectation in Ankara is for parliament to begin work on a package of EU-required reforms after voting on early elections, but the chances are slim that MPs will stick around for lengthy legislative work when they will want to be campaigning. The ruling coalition's junior partner, the pro-EU Motherland Party (ANAP), last week submitted to parliament a draft package of reforms which it wants to have debated before the November polls. The fate of the laws depends on opposition backing, as Ecevit's nationalist partner, the MHP, is categorically opposed to basic reforms such as the abolition of the death penalty and the granting of expanded cultural rights for the country's sizeable Kurdish minority.

ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz admitted that he had failed to garner unconditional opposition support to pass the reforms package before November. Opposition parties had earlier pledged to back the reforms, but now have come up with conditions to their support as they maneouvre to make the most of the elections. Turkey fears it will miss its self-imposed target of attaining a date for the opening of accession talks with the Union by the the end of the year and be left out of the bloc's enlargement indefinitely if it does not adopt the reforms.

3. - AFP - "Turkish economy minister to resign: party official":

ANKARA / 29 July 2002

Turkish Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, the driving force behind an IMF-backed economic program, will resign soon, a senior official from a new opposition party said in an interview published Monday. Dervis, an independent technocrat with an eye on politics, "will evaluate his relation with the government as soon as he returns" from the United States on Tuesday, the secretary-general of the New Turkey party (YT), Istemihan Talay, told the daily Radikal.

Asked whether Dervis, who is expected to join the new formation, will quit the government, Talay said: "Naturally." The pro-European New Turkey was established last week by about 60 MPs who resigned from the Democratic Left Party (DSP) of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit amid a severe government crisis. The party is led by the popular former foreign minister Ismail Cem, who has said the group has the support of Dervis, a much-trusted figure in domestic and international financial circles.

Dervis stepped down earlier this month but retracted his resignation in a few hours under pressure to remain at the head of Turkey's economic reform efforts. Talay said New Turkey would not object if Ecevit's three-party ruling coalition decided to keep Dervis in the cabinet despite his alliance with an opposition party. "The government will then become something like a coalition of four," he said. Analysts have said Dervis appears to aiming to form a wide-based coalition of centrist forces to vie for power in early elections.

Parliament was scheduled to convene in an extraordinary session later on Monday to start procedures to ratify early polls on November 3, almost two years ahead of schedule. The vote was expected to take place on Wednesday. Talay said they were expecting the arrival of Dervis in order to start efforts for New Turkey's expansion. Dervis, a former World Bank vice president, was summoned home in March last year to take the reins of the economy in the wake of a severe finnacial crisis.

4. - Kurdish Observer - "Question marks over Suceken incident":

Suspicions increased that the incident in Suceken Village of Batman province where 3 people were killed on the grounds that they were member of KADEK was in fact a summary execution. Eye-witnesses stated that there was no armed conflict and the soldiers used a number of guns including LAV.

DIHA/ BATMAN / 27 July 2002

Suspicions increased that the incident in Suceken Village of Batman province where 3 people were killed and two people were wounded on the grounds that they were member of KADEK was in fact a summary execution. State of Emergency Rule (OHAL) Governor's Office has announced "KADEK members who had failed to stop when the gendarme forces signalled them were killed in an clash." Then Human Rights Association (IHD) applied to Batman Public Prosecution to make inquiries on the incident. But the prosecutor's office replied that the incident was subject to a confidential investigation, turning down the application. In addition to this, that some drivers of trailer-trucks who were present during the incident stated that there was no armed conflict and the soldiers used a number of guns strengthened the "summary execution" claims.

Injured talked

Abdullah Cetinkaya who was seriously injured and taken to Dicle University Medicine Faculty Hospital underwent an operation the other day. Cetinkaya who is reportedly not under vital threat, was given permission to meet with his family. His relative Tevfik Cetinkaya stated that he could see him for only five minutes and it passed under strict security measures. Cetinkaya added that they were not allowed to speak Kurdish and he was threatened by police not to say anything on the incident.

Body was taken to Amed

On the other hand one of the bodies of the victims was identified as Akif Aktug from Lice, Amed. He was known as a KADEK member. Aktug's body was taken from Batman State Hospital's Morgue by his family the other day and taken to Amed. In a funeral attended by his family and closed one.

5. - AP - "Iraq Rebels, U.S. to Discuss Saddam":

LONDON / 27 July 2002

The United States has invited six Iraqi opposition groups to Washington next month for talks on removing Saddam Hussein, spokesmen for three of the factions said Saturday.

The State Department confirmed a meeting was planned either Aug. 9 or Aug. 16 to coordinate ``our work with the Iraqi opposition.''

A spokesman for the Iraqi National Congress, Nabil Mousawi, said in London that the congress, an umbrella group of dissident parties, would accept the invitation.

``It is the first time that the U.S. administration has issued a joint letter from the Pentagon, the State Department and other agencies,'' Mousawi said. ``Finally we have one intended policy from all sections of the administration.''

He said the opposition groups wanted to hear confirmation that the Bush administration is committed to overthrowing Saddam.

``We will hear from them how this is going to be coordinated between the Iraqi opposition and the U.S. government,'' Mousawi said.

President Bush has described Saddam as a menace and said he wants him removed, but Iraqi dissidents want to know how far the United States is prepared to go to accomplish that.

State Department spokesman Frederick Jones said the meeting would be hosted by Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman and Undersecretary of Defense Douglas J. Feith.

The leader of the small Constitutional Monarchy Movement, Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein, said in London that his party had accepted the invitation.

In Damascus, the Syrian representative of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Bayan Jabber, said his group was invited, but had not yet decided whether it would attend. The council draws its support from Iraq's Shiite Muslim majority.

Jones said the other parties invited are the Iraqi National Accord, another umbrella group, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

The Kurd groups are the two main powers in the Kurdish zone of northern Iraq, which is beyond the control of the Baghdad government. Spokesmen for the groups in London and Ankara, Turkey, said they heard of the meeting, but could not confirm their leaderships had been invited.

Representatives of the Iraqi National Accord could not be reached Saturday.

The Iraqi National Congress, which is based in London, took part in a meeting of former Iraqi military officers and opposition groups in the British capital earlier this month.

Representatives of the State Department and Pentagon attended the meeting. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said afterward that it was ``a useful tool.''

In June, Bush administration officials discussed preparations for a post-Saddam Iraq with representatives of the two Kurdish groups, the supreme council, the national accord and other groups.

6. - Eurasianet - "IMF agenda likely ro previal in post-election Turkey":

Mevlut Katik / 25 July 2002

Ailing and forced into lame-duck status by a restive parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit shot back at his country’s financial markets on July 25 by warning that the early elections he endorsed this summer would hurt the Turkish economy. Turkey’s November 3 election will come as the legislature is scrambling to pass reforms to support its application for membership in the European Union. Ecevit warned on July 25 that those reforms would be very hard to achieve during a change in government, worrying investors who believe that EU membership will boost Turkish markets and sales. Some observers also wonder if Turkey’s $16 billion loan commitment from the International Monetary Fund, whose disbursements also depend on economic reforms, can survive amid the political clutter.

The IMF has made itself indispensable to whatever party governs Turkey. After a serious financial crisis erased thousands of jobs and sank the Turkish lira by about 50 percent, the IMF signed a standby agreement with the government in February 2001 that triggered a series of reforms. On evidence of these reforms, the Turkish economy and lira began to recover. Yet the current political crisis has thrown the future of the program into doubt, not least because it might yield a government without influential economy minister Kemal Dervis. Ecevit, who grudgingly endorsed early elections after his cabinet threatened to dissolve the government, has promised that EU-directed reforms will continue. IMF-related reforms, which involve privatization of industry and anticorruption measures, support elements of the EU bid. But as Turkey enters a political breach with a precarious economy in a volatile world, those reforms will extract increasing amounts of sacrifice from the public. A new government will have the tough task of instilling these reforms while solidifying a political base.

Turkey’s economy looks ill prepared for major changes. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Interest rates have touched 75 percent while growth hovers around three percent. While the government still aims to halve annual inflation to the IMF target of 35 percent by December, it needs to figure out how to manage high borrowing costs while persuading investors that its currency will improve. The country runs a deficit, and manufacturing wages fell in 2001. The Turkish government divorced the Central Bank from political ups and downs in 2001, but a future government might re-emphasize patronage and partisanship in guiding financial policy.

Steadfastness from Dervis and the IMF have bolstered investors’ confidence since the winter of 2001. After elections, though, this confidence may evaporate. Fitch Ratings affirmed the stability of Turkey’s long-term international currency on July 1. In its latest report, Fitch noted that "the government is unlikely to face debt repayment problems in the immediate future." However, it warned that things could change if the political impasse is not resolved after a possible election. Economy Minister Dervis also warned after a July 16 meeting with IMF European Executive Director Willy Kiekens and Turkey desk chief Juha Kahkonen that "domestic debt due to rising interest rates and political uncertainty caused problems," but pledged the nation to an IMF-blessed macroeconomic course. The budgetary figures released by the Finance Ministry on the same day also recorded an increase in primary surplus, which Finance Minister Sumer Oral said boded well for the overall annual surplus. But as Dervis himself noted, uncertainty can erode economic optimism.

The entire IMF loan has coincided with political bickering. Members of Ecevit’s coalition did not like the idea of appointing independent commission members for supervisory bodies, and some ministers lost their jobs over the issue. While privatization is likely to remain on track, the enthusiasm of a future government on this issue would determine privatization’s pace and breadth. Privatization revenue could buoy a new government by reducing the need for expensive foreign debt. In a shaky global economy, though, investors may not flock to newly independent Turkish companies. The government will have to keep installing regulatory bodies and widening regulation over the nation’s troubled banks in order to capture whatever enthusiasm a favorable review by the EU could spark.

At the same time, no political party wants to aggressively claim ownership of these sorts of policies. Tight fiscal policies mean higher taxes and potentially higher unemployment, while more populist strategies that weaken the economy can also hurt political parties. As a result, political parties who prevail after elections can cite the IMF program as a necessary source of life and money injection for the economy. New leaders figure to pause in implementing reforms rather than shelving reforms entirely. How long this pause would last or whether it could damage the achievements made so far would depend on how quickly political players agree to work together and how effectively they manage their program.

The IMF’s program appears more stable than most other elements of Turkish public life. The fact that most political parties seem to have agreed on a government proposal to hold early elections on November 3 seems to have eased the pressure. It is not likely that all this economic and political process would result in something similar to what Argentina had to go through. The Turkish economy and public operate on rather different political and cultural parameters. It provides Turkish political and economic decision-makers with a good reason to break old habits. Since most Turkish politicians have shown great reluctance to embrace bold economic reforms, the IMF may well help a new government steer policy.

In that context, Ecevit’s warning may serve as an effort to shift blame for his own loss of authority. State-sponsored corporate culture, and economic, financial, business and political classes that have worked casually for decades now realize that they have to adapt to global trends in order to survive. Whatever high drama transpires after the November 3 elections, the 2003 implementation of IMF-compliant reforms seems like one of the surest bets in this turbulent nation.

Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.