26 July 2002

1. "Ocalan: There is a good ground for democracy", KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan stated that there was a ground for democracy in Turkey but the democratic forces and the people should play their role well. Ocalan warned people about the developments in South Kurdistan.

2. "Elections overshadow Turkey's EU dream", EU diplomats say Turkey's chances of winning a firm date at Copenhagen for the start of negotiations were always slim, even in the best case scenario of reforms being passed and a pro-Western government winning the November elections.

3. "Popular Turkish Islamist leader risks jail in new court case", Turkish prosecutors have demanded up to three years in jail for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a rising politician with an Islamic background, for alleged fraud in public tenders, Anatolia news agency reported Friday.

4. "Turkey ranks 83rd in United Nations survey”, according to the latest United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 2002 report, among 173 nations Turkey ranks 83rd. The annual report was made public in Ankara by UNDP Turkey representant Alfredo Witschi Cestari. The annual report concentrates on areas such as life expectancy, literacy, political-social context, level of education, standard of living and income per head in respective country.

5. "EU 'reforms' offer media censure", the package revealed by Yilmaz on the 94th anniversary of the abolition of censure -- a day marked in the country as Press Day -- threatens the Turkish media with 'economic censure.' While lifting prison sentences for journalists, the EU reforms package revealed by Yilmaz introduces lofty fines.

6. "Planning for war with Iraq speeds forward", the Bush administration is moving forward aggressively with plans to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to senior U.S. officials and individuals involved in the planning.

1. - Flash Bulletin / MHA - "Ocalan: There is a good ground for democracy":

KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan stated that there was a ground for democracy in Turkey but the democratic forces and the people should play their role well. Ocalan warned people about the developments in South Kurdistan.

FRANKFURT / 25 July 2002

Congress for Freedom and Democracy in Kurdistan (KADEK) President Abdullah Ocalan stated that elections would be held in Turkey, adding "There is a good ground for democracy. But masses should play their role well."

"They try to create new Saddams and new Talibans. We do not want new Halabja massacres" said the President, drawing attention to the new manipulations on KADEK and the people in the region

In his article published in the newspaper "Demokrat Bakis" in Turkey, Ocalan pointed out that for the state to be democratised political parties and non-governmental organizations have a number of important duties to carry out: "State does not become democratic by itself, it can be made sensitive to democracy. The struggle towards democracy which we call democratic politics should trust the people and make the state more sensitive to democracy. Political parties should know the operation within the state and make a program on solving the public problems and needs." The Kurdish leader emphasised that for the society to be sensitive there should be all sorts of organisations from sports to economy.

Crisis in mentality

The KADEK President believed that there would soon be elections, adding the following: "There is a good ground for democracy, but in case that the democratic demands of the people are not met and the masses are prevented from playing their roles, the deadlock will be deepened. We are ready for everything until a self-respecting peace is secured," said the Kurdish leader.

Ocalan reminded that behind the existing political and economic crisis in Turkey there was a crisis of mentality and continued: "Unless a transformation of this mentality is realised, the crisis will not be averted, it will drag on."

"Guerrilla for democratic Iraq"

KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan said concerning an operation against Iraq and the Kurds there the following: "If there is an attack on Iraq, it is not clear what they will do to the Kurds. We want to avoid new Halabjas. Manipulations of Talabani and Barzani are evident. What will the USA and Britain give the Kurds? Even if Saddam is thrown over, there may be new Saddams. All manipulations and conspiracies are against KADEK and the people." Ocalan also stressed the necessity of powerful organisations against new manipulations in the region, like some kind of new Taliban that were being created in South Kurdistan: "We want democracy in Iraq. The guerrilla is for a democratic Iraq. Turkey has made a mistake as far as Iraq is concerned. It has supported Barzani and Talabani since 1992, now it cannot give up this position. In this case there will be a Talabani-Barzani principality at most. Its meaning is clear: new Sharons, new Arafats. The US positions itself in the Middle East, all its weapons go there."

Ocalan continued with words to the effect: "We are witnessing a stormy period. They want to deploy a force of more than 15,000 in Turkey. It is Talabani's wish. Behind him there are Britain and USA. For this to be avoided a very serious burden falls on the Turkish politics. Talabani is a barker, says 'Apo should not take pains about me.' I am the only obstacle for him. I am the biggest obstacle not only for him but for the international forces as well. They want to create new Taliban in the South. Have the Taliban been created by the USA? Ciller demands prime ministry. Ciller is the daughter of Thatcher, their alliance includes Talabani. In London Talabani and Ciller jointly own a gas firm. They will shed blood for petrol, guerrillas and soldiers will end up dying. Turkey should not be deceived. A legitimate defence is necessary for it. Turkey should consider Kurds a friendly force. "I will come to power" says Ciller. That means war. There should be a common struggle for democracy and freedom and against civil war."

2. - Reuters - "Elections overshadow Turkey's EU dream":

EU diplomats say Turkey's chances of winning a firm date at Copenhagen for the start of negotiations were always slim, even in the best case scenario of reforms being passed and a pro-Western government winning the November elections.

ANKARA / 26 July 2002 / by By Claudia Parsons

All but one of Turkey's myriad political parties claim to be in favour of rights reforms to qualify for European Union membership but the chances of passing those measures in the near future are slipping.

The EU is due to decide on admitting up to 10 mainly east European states at a summit in Copenhagen in December, and if Turkey is not given at least some sign of encouragement its progress towards joining may grind to a halt.

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit warned on Thursday that early elections, now all but certain to be held on November 3, would hold up progress towards meeting the EU's strict criteria on human rights and democracy before the December deadline.

Ecevit's deputy prime minister Mesut Yilmaz, a vociferous advocate of EU membership, has spent the past week touting a package of 13 EU-inspired reforms including easing restrictions on use of the Kurdish language and lifting the death penalty.

The package goes further than that, to the surprise of some, tackling also questions of freedom of expression and association as well as raising penalties for human smuggling in a move that could go some way to pacifying conservative EU members' fears about illegal immigration.

"They actually have a package that could surprise a number of people positively," said one Western diplomat.

"One of the dilemmas is the more ambitious the package is, the more difficult it will be to drive it through -- and it looks quite ambitious," the diplomat said.

Yilmaz, leader of the Motherland Party, is pressing for parliament to tackle the EU package before it votes to set a date for elections, fearing that once a date is set deputies will concentrate exclusively on being re-elected.

"All the MPs will rush to their constituencies and start working to be re-elected so they won't care whether the EU reforms are passed or not," said Sami Kohen, columnist at Milliyet newspaper, sharing Yilmaz's fears.

Parliament is due to be recalled from summer recess next Monday to set elections and possibly debate the EU reforms.

"There's plenty of time if they want to do it," Kohen said. "If the parliamentarians want to work, they can do it within two or three weeks...they can decide an election date and spend the whole month of August passing all kinds of reform laws."

Party commitment

But Kohen said there was a worrying lack of commitment in some parties, even those apparently in favour of the EU.

"It's a chaotic situation. You have each party with two or three different views," he told Reuters.

The newly-founded New Turkey Party, led by former Foreign Minister Ismail Cem, has cast itself as pro-Western and dedicated to achieving Turkey's decades-old aim of joining the EU, seen by Turks as likely to bring prosperity and stability.

But Yilmaz said a recent round of meetings with party leaders including Cem had shown less than whole-hearted support.

"I have to say that, except for the (Islamist) Saadet Party, I saw none of the support they had promised from parties that had pledged unconditional support for EU reforms," Yilmaz said.

Media commentator Mehmet Ali Birand said he was not optimistic the laws could be passed, and that would play into the hands of those in Europe who do not want Turkey to join.

"All the parties prefer to leave the thorny issues like language and the death penalty until after the elections because they're squeezed and they don't want to lose any votes."

Turkish financial markets, generally approving of efforts to tie the Muslim NATO country more strongly to the West, have sunk in past days on belief that the EU reforms will not pass.

EU diplomats say Turkey's chances of winning a firm date at Copenhagen for the start of negotiations were always slim, even in the best case scenario of reforms being passed and a pro-Western government winning the November elections.

"The implementation aspect is overlooked still by the Turkish side," said one diplomat. Turkey needs to be seen consistently implementing reforms improving freedom of expression and religion and ending torture, for example.

The best Ankara can expect from Copenhagen is recognition that it has taken important strides since it was admitted as a candidate country in 1999, and possibly a vague reference to a timetable for its future progress.

All this could be complicated by Cyprus. Peace talks under way on the divided Mediterranean island since January have made no progress towards the goal of reuniting the estranged Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot populations. The EU says the Turkish Cypriot side is being intransigent.

Cyprus is a frontrunner for EU admission and is expecting a positive answer at Copenhagen in December. Admission without a solution would likely provoke a crisis with Turkey, which has talked of annexing the north in such a case, in what could be a fatal blow for Ankara's own EU ambitions.

No Turkish politician is likely to take a conciliatory line on Cyprus in an election campaign. What happens after November will depend on who wins what looks to be a wide open race.

3. - AFP - "Popular Turkish Islamist leader risks jail in new court case":

ISTANBUL / 26 July 2002

Turkish prosecutors have demanded up to three years in jail for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a rising politician with an Islamic background, for alleged fraud in public tenders, Anatolia news agency reported Friday.

The indictment, the third against Erdogan since May, pertains to a tender held by the Istanbul city council in 1998, when Erdogan was mayor, Anatolia said. Prosecutors said Erdogan, 48, held responsibility for public damage inflicted by the procedures by approving billboard rents at below market levels.

Recent opinion polls have shown Erdogan's Justice and Development Party would come in first if elections were held now, leading Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit to describe the party as a threat for the country's secular political system, which is staunchly guarded by the powerful military. The parliament is due to convene on Monday to debate and ratify a plan to hold early elections in November, following a severe government crisis.

The indictment against Erdogan also included charges of fraud regarding a second tender by the Istanbul municipality in 2001, when Erdogan was not in office. Seventeen other people were charged with offences carrying sentences of between one and three years in jail, Anatolia said. The date of the opening of the hearing was not known. Last month prosecutors charged Erdogan with accumulating wealth in unclear circumstances, demanding more than five years in jail for him.

And in May he was indicted for corruption in public tenders, again during his mayorship, for which he risks three to nine years in prison. Erdogan has spent four months in jail under a 1998 conviction for sedition for publicly reciting a poem with pro-Islamic messages. The sentence also brought him a political ban, but he argues that it had become invalid under a 1999 amnesty law and some legal reforms. His eligibility to run for parliament remains a legal controversy. The charismatic Erdogan, who has in the past denounced Turkey's secular system and its pro-Western orientation, tries to recast himself as a conservative centrist favoring Turkey's integration with the European Union.

Islamist political movements have been under a constant clampdown in Turkey since 1997, when the country's first Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan resigned as a result of a harsh army-led secularist campaign. Erdogan and others among his 53 MPs were members of Erbakan's party, which was later banned for anti-secular activities.

4. - Kurdish Media - "Turkey ranks 83rd in United Nations survey”:

LONDON / 26 July 2002 / by Robin Kurd

According to the latest United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 2002 report, among 173 nations Turkey ranks 83rd. The annual report was made public in Ankara by UNDP Turkey representant Alfredo Witschi Cestari. The annual report concentrates on areas such as life expectancy, literacy, political-social context, level of education, standard of living and income per head in respective country.

In the report Turkey was in the 'moderately developed' category. In last years report Turkey had ranked 82nd. Within the 'moderately developed' category Turkey ranked 32nd.

According to the report, Turkey's human development index was 0.742; to improve its situation Turkey needs an index of 0.058. Between the years 1975 - 2000 Turkey's human development index was 0.407.

According to the human development criteria the situation of Turkey was as following:

Democratic functioning: In the 1999 general elections 87% of the electorate voted. Representation in the parliament 4.2%. Number of NGO's 420. Level of unionisation 22%.

Living standard: In 2000, life expectancy was 69.8 years. Literacy among the age group 15 and above was 85.1, and for the age group 15-24, 96.5. Chances of death before the age of 40, 9.6. 14.9% of the population is still illiterate.

Also according to the report, 17% of Turkey's population do not have access to clean water. 8% of children below the age of 5 are undernourished. Most importantly, 2.4% of Turkey's population earn 1 dollar a day and 18% 2 dollars a day.

According to these results there is a huge gap between Turkey and the EU countries.

Turkey's national income in 2000 was 199.9 billion dollars. Turkey spends 2.2% of its income on education, 3.3% on health care, 4.9% on military expenses and 10.6% to debt payment. After United Arab Emirates and Armenia, Turkey spends the least on education. Turkey, after countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Yemen and Oman, ranks 6th on military spending.

On the situation of the women in Turkey the report reveals that 14.6% of Turkey's women are illiterate. Women in Turkey earn 46% of what men earn for doing the same job. The report states that this level of inequality is unique to Turkey.

5. - Turish Daily News - "EU 'reforms' offer media censure":

* The package revealed by Yilmaz on the 94th anniversary of the abolition of censure -- a day marked in the country as Press Day -- threatens the Turkish media with 'economic censure.' While lifting prison sentences for journalists, the EU reforms package revealed by Yilmaz introduces lofty fines

* Launching a newspaper is not subject to prior permission, but reporting to the office of the highest local administrator is a must, and a publisher could face a fine of up to TL 100 billion if he fails to fulfill the obligation or fails to submit two copies of his daily paper to the Office of the Press Prosecutor

* Newspapers employing civil servants or convicts could face a TL 15 billion fine, while papers prematurely reporting on prosecutor's investigation reports could face a TL 100 billion fine. Press establishments that fail to properly register their revenues and expenses may face a fine of up to TL 10 billion

ANKARA / 26 July 2002 / Kemal Balci

The 14-article "European Union harmonization package" presented to Parliament by Motherland Party (ANAP) leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz introduces lofty fines for the Turkish media.

The package, while lifting prison sentences in the Press Law, introduces, on the other hand, heavy fines exceeding TL 100 billion. The package prepared by Yilmaz, which failed to get support from ANAP'S coalition partners, the Democratic Left Party (DSP) of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli, could signal the end, particularly for the small local newspapers of Anatolia, if adopted in Parliament with the support of the opposition parties.

It was also unfortunate that the package was reveled by Yilmaz on the 94th anniversary of the abolition of censure -- a day marked in the country as Press Day; the Turkish media is now being threatened with "economic censure." Censure was abolished in Turkey during the reign of Sultan Abdulhamit. On that same date, all political leaders, including Yilmaz, praised the lifting of censure in the country, but neither politicians nor press organizations reacted to the "economical censure" proposed by the ANAP leader in his "EU reform package."

Indeed, Yilmaz' proposal was in line with the controversial Radio and Television Board Law (RTUK) that introduced lofty fines to the audio-visual media. Now, the print media is also being threatened with "economic censure."

Although Yilmaz failed to receive support from his coalition partners and an open endorsement from the opposition parties, it is very likely that the EU reform package will not be legislated by Parliament when it convenes on July 29 to fix a date for early polls. Such a development may derail Turkey's EU bid, but it could also be good news for the Turkish press, as they would not be threatened with the hundreds of billion lira fines that could be introduced with the package.

Heavy fines

The package prepared by Yilmaz calls for amendments to be made to the eight articles of the Press Law that stipulate prison sentences, mostly between three months and one year, and a maximum fine of TL 10 million. However, while replacing prison sentences with fines, the proposal suggests such lofty fines that, potentially, even the country's leading papers could eventually be forced to file for bankruptcy.

The first suggested amendment to the Press Law concerns the "registration" issue. According to existing laws, a paper can be launched without getting prior permission from the authorities. However, publishers are required to fill out a form and submit it to the office of the highest local administrator and to register the owner, editor, address and the location where the paper will be printed. The law amendment that Yilmaz has suggested stipulates TL 10-30 billion in fines for those who fail to fulfill the registration formality or who fail to report in due course any relevant changes. Similarly, if errors are made when filling out the form, intentionally or unintentionally, or if the publisher produces incorrect information, he could face a fine of between TL 20-100 billion. Even a misspelling could be interpreted as incorrect reporting.

If a newspaper, stopped from publishing by a court decision, resumes publication without fulfilling the registration formality, the publisher could face a TL 20-60 billion fine.

With the lifting of the censure 94 years ago, publishers no longer needed to obtain pre-publishing approval from local authorities, but they still needed to produce two copies of each and every edition to the office of the highest local administration. With the amendments Yilmaz suggested, if a publisher fails to hand in two papers every day to the office of the highest local administration, he could face a TL 10-20 billion fine.

According to existing legislation, public workers and convicts are barred from journalism. If a publisher employs a public worker or convict, he could face, at least, a TL 15 billion fine.

According to the amendments suggested by Yilmaz, those publishing prosecutor's investigation reports, before such reports have been read out in court, could face a fine of between TL 20-100 billion.

The fine for reports on "incest" or other "sexual relations" considered illegal, would be between TL 10-30 billion if the amendments suggested by Yilmaz become law.

The current press law stipulates that papers or magazines must record their revenues and expenses, and the names of their subscribers -- should that number exceed 50 -- in a special "Follow-up book." According to Yilmaz' proposals, if this book is not kept, publishers could receive a fine of up to TL 10 billion.

The story of a journalist from Datca

The Hurriyet newspaper reported in its May 16 edition, with bold headlines, the story of Sinan Kaya, the publisher of a local newspaper in Datca. The headline was, "He wrote a story, his life was ruined..."

The story recounted a set of unfortunate mishaps Kaya had to endure because of a news article he wrote against the Datca local administrator (Kaimakam). He was sentenced to prison, subjected to lofty fines.

The Datca local administrator filed several suits against Kaya, and the local judge, a friend of the local administrator, sentenced Kaya to a total of nine years imprisonment and TL 4 billion in fines in 18 court cases over the course of just one day.

All of the prison sentences and fines were given to Kaya because of his "administrative deficiencies." He was sentenced to three months imprisonment and a fine of TL 90 million because he could not produce "receipts" for the two newspapers he was obliged to have handed in to the "office of the highest local administrator" every day. If his case were to have been handled after the "reform package" was legislated by Parliament, he would not have had to serve the prison sentence, but would have had to have paid between TL 30-90 billion in fines.

Kaya was tried for using his home as his office and for failing to "adequately report" it and was sentenced in that case to 13 months imprisonment and a TL 28 million fine. If he were to have been tried after the package became law, he would not have been sentenced to imprisonment, but would have faced a fine of between TL 20-100 billion.

He was accused of not keeping the "follow-up book," and was sentenced to 3 months, 26 days imprisonment and a fine of TL 137 million. He would have received, after the reform package, no imprisonment, but, at least, a TL 10 billion fine.

He was accused a second time of not keeping the "follow-up book" and for failing to properly record his income and expenditures and was sentenced to 3 months, 26 days imprisonment and given a TL 190 million fine. He would have received no imprisonment once the "reform" was legislated, but a fine of at least TL 10 billion.

The story of Sinan Kaya underlines vividly the dangers and threats that a local journalist may have to face. Furthermore, even the national dailies could hardly pay these high fines.

This vivid example reflects perfectly how truly unfortunate it is that, on the anniversary of the day that censure was lifted in the country, Yilmaz has suggested such massive fines for the press, hidden in a "EU reforms" package.

The legislation of the EU reform package appears almost impossible. This would be a negative development for Turkey's democratization efforts, but, at the same time, would be a positive development against attempts to make the press survive under threats of "economic censure" and by becoming "dependent" on the ruling political groups.

6. - Knight Ridder Newspapers - "Planning for war with Iraq speeds forward":

WASHINGTON / 26 July 2002 /
by WARREN P. STROBEL and JONATHAN S. LANDAY

The Bush administration is moving forward aggressively with plans to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to senior U.S. officials and individuals involved in the planning.

The groundwork is being laid for a possible U.S.-led invasion early next year, the officials said.

Under one scenario being discussed at the Pentagon, 250,000 to 300,000 U.S. troops would invade Iraq and overthrow Hussein, backed by massive air strikes. Turkey, Kuwait and Qatar have indicated they would allow their territory to be used for an attack.

Some civilian aides to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are pushing for a quicker -- and, critics say, riskier -- invasion in an attempt to catch Hussein off guard. That strategy would involve about 80,000 troops. It could be in place by this fall.

Proponents of this approach argue that a surprise attack is vital because the Iraqi leader knows that, unlike the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the U.S. goal this time will be his ouster. Thus, he may be tempted to lash out first with chemical or biological weapons.

"If it happened in October, I wouldn't be completely surprised," said one official involved in the planning. He and others spoke on condition of anonymity.

What Hussein might do is at the center of the debate over which plan to follow. Large numbers of Americans and Iraqis could be killed and wounded, especially if there were fighting in Baghdad and other major cities.

President Bush -- who has repeatedly declared his intention to get rid of Hussein -- has made no decision on which, if any, plan to execute, the officials emphasized.

Also, the White House has not begun a concerted effort to persuade Americans, Congress or U.S. allies of the need to pre-emptively strike Iraq.

"It is absolutely clear to me they have not made the case yet, and they know that. They haven't made it to the American people, they haven't made it to our allies, and they haven't made it to the region," said Sen. Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat.

Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, opens hearings on Iraq policy next week.

Washington's two closest Arab allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, oppose military action against Iraq, as does almost every European ally except Great Britain.

Those nations argue that Bush should first get the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on a path to resolution. Otherwise, they say, attacking Iraq could ignite the Middle East and endanger pro-Western regimes.

The State Department shares those concerns.

"With all that's going on, with all the uncertainty in the Middle East...it probably is not a good time," a senior State Department official said.

Nor has the Bush administration sketched out a vision of a post-Hussein regime that could hold together the nation of 23 million Shi'ite Muslims, Sunni Muslims and ethnic Kurds.

Some officials worry that Bush may have backed himself into a corner with his rhetoric.

In one sign of how serious the planning is, top Bush aides are debating whether the president should get congressional approval for an invasion. His father did so before launching Operation Desert Storm to expel Iraqi troops from Kuwait.

Some Bush aides argue that Hussein, who since 1998 has refused weapons inspections, is in violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions that ended the 1991 war. Because of that, no further authority is needed.

Others argue that it makes sense to seek Congress' backing, because its support is virtually assured.

Biden said that going after Hussein without congressional assent and public support "could be a career-ending move" for Bush. The president understands the risk, he said.

"I have specifically inquired about the prospect of an October surprise, and have been told there will not be an October surprise," Biden said.

In another sign of Bush's intent, the United States moved this week to shut down U.N. negotiations with Iraq over the return of weapons inspectors.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan told the Security Council on Wednesday that further talks with Iraq would be fruitless unless Baghdad agrees to give inspectors unconditional access. Washington opposed even technical-level talks with the Iraqis, a U.S. diplomat said.

The move prompted speculation that Washington was preparing public opinion for an eventual attack.

No attack is imminent, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Thursday. "There are many issues to be considered before we are at the point of decision," he said.

Blair added that "the omens don't look very good, frankly," for a diplomatic breakthrough.

U.S. officials fear that Hussein might undercut any effort to build international support for military action by readmitting U.N. weapons inspectors, while preventing them unfettered access -- as he has in the past.

On the military options, some planners and non-government experts argue that the 80,000-member invasion force being pushed by Pentagon hawks is too small and could lead to a catastrophe if there were widespread street fighting in Baghdad. Many innocent Iraqi citizens could be caught up in the warfare and killed.

The post-Hussein era could be a disaster "if we don't do the takedown right," said the official involved in planning. "Waiting three, four, five more months buys you so much more in terms of doing it right."

Still, he said, "I've never seen a scenario where we lose."

Michael Vickers, a former Army special operations and CIA officer, said that a substantial U.S. force would be needed to subdue Baghdad.

"The regime takedown part is where the uncertainty is, once you get to the gates of Baghdad," said Vickers, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent Washington defense think tank.

Whatever plan may be adopted, defense officials and experts think the U.S. military is better trained, equipped and positioned to take on Iraq now than it was in 1991.

"We will go as a much more experienced force," said Gen. John M. Keane, vice chief of staff for the Army.

Operation Desert Storm was the first major engagement for the U.S. military since the Vietnam War. The forces involved were untested, and it took six months to deploy at bases that first had to be built in Saudi Arabia.

Since then, U.S. forces have been seasoned and honed by more rigorous training regimes, an unprecedented number of overseas operations, and wars in the Balkans and Afghanistan.

U.S. forces also have been armed with improved tanks, aircraft, unmanned spy planes and precision-guided bombs that can hit targets around the clock and in any kind of weather.

The U.S. military has a network of bases around the Persian Gulf and in Turkey that could anchor an assault on Iraq. It has hundreds of aircraft and a carrier battle group in the region, and enough tanks and other weaponry stored in Kuwait and Qatar to equip two heavy infantry brigades that could spearhead an invasion.

U.S. troops could also use new facilities set up in Central Asia to support U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Hussein's military capabilities, meanwhile, have eroded.

Although Iraq's 424,000-man military remains the strongest in the region, it has been prevented by a decade of U.N. sanctions from replacing its largely obsolete Soviet-designed armory with modern weapons systems.

The Iraqi military is thought to lack sufficient spare parts to fight a protracted war, and the loyalty of many troops is highly suspect.

But many experts said that an invasion would still be a high-risk venture that could claim thousands of American lives and hold unforeseen consequences for regional stability.

"You definitely cannot count on it being a cakewalk," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, a Washington research institute.

(To reach Warren P. Strobel, send e-mail to wstrobel@krwashington.com. To reach Jonathan S. Landay, send e-mail to jlanday@krwashington.com).