16 July 2002

1. "Turkey's political crisis could affect regional stability", as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s only Muslim member, Turkey plays a focal role in NATO strategy from the Middle East to Central Asia. With Turkey’s government reeling from a wave of resignations, officials have begun to worry about how the domestic crisis will affect Turkey’s military and diplomatic policies.

2. "Turkey's Ecevit says he could quit, parliament to vote on early election", embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said Monday he could resign, as his crisis-ridden government edged closer to collapse with more defections from his thin majority in parliament.

3. "Turkish nationalists blame pro-EU movement for crisis", the far-right coalition partner of embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), said on Monday that pro-European Union political forces were behind the current political turmoil in the country.

4. "An opportunity in Turkey", Bulent Ecevit, Turkey's sickly 77-year-old prime minister, is getting politically weaker by the day, and so is his country. Last week seven cabinet ministers resigned. Finance Minister Kemal Dervis, considered crucial to sustaining Turkey's precarious financial health, remained in office only after a special appeal by the president. Coming as it does in a nation that hosts U.S. warplanes, borders on Iraq and is one the few secular democracies in the Islamic world, the crisis could pose serious problems for the Bush administration. But it also may offer the United States and Europe an opportunity to nudge a key ally toward crucial political and economic reforms.

5. "Torture still spreading in Turkey", A report by the revealed that torture, a humanity crime, continued systematically once again. The said report for January 2001-June 2002 pointed out that torture under detention or in prisons, disappearances and summary executions continued, and there was no decrease on the number of torture, ill treatment and degrading treatment.

6. "Iraq herding Kurds", forced into refugee camps, non-Arabs await Hussein's removal.

1. - Eurasianet - "Turkey's political crisis could affect regional stability":

ISTANBUL / 15 July 2002 / by Jon Gorvett

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s only Muslim member, Turkey plays a focal role in NATO strategy from the Middle East to Central Asia. With Turkey’s government reeling from a wave of resignations, officials have begun to worry about how the domestic crisis will affect Turkey’s military and diplomatic policies.

As two fresh resignations further endangered Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit’s Democratic Left Party’s (DSP) majority status, Turkish media reported July 15 that the country’s parliament has been recalled for an extraordinary session to vote on the possibility of early elections. The September 1 session was called at the urging of the rightist Nationalist Action Party (MHP), and represents the most concrete threat to Ecevit’s power to date. Meanwhile, Ecevit, who has steadfastly refused calls for his own resignation, suggested he might reconsider if Economy Minister Kemal Dervis were to also quit – a move Dervis announced July 11 but withdrew later that day. "If Mr. Dervis adopts a different stance, I may have to resign," MSNBC quoted Ecevit as saying. The growing turmoil in Turkey’s government has observers worried about the country’s position in the international community.

Observers particularly worry about Foreign Minister Ismail Cem’s departure from the ruling Democratic Left Party, which he announced July 11. Cem is widely credited with a number of recent foreign policy successes. Parlaying his friendship with Greek Foreign Minister Yorgo Papandreou, he persuaded Turks to accept a rapprochement with their traditionally hostile neighbor. He also engineered the recent thawing of relations with Turkey’s eastern neighbor, Armenia. [For background information, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Yet while these alliances hold some promise in the future, most Ankara observers worry about how Cem’s departure might affect Turkey’s relations with the European Union. The absence of Cem’s leadership could endanger Turkey’s bid for EU membership.

"For successive Turkish governments, foreign policy issues have not been strong factors in domestic debate," says Istanbul Bilgi University Political Science faculty chief Iltar Turan. "But the debate now is over how all this will impact on Turkey’s ability to meet the EU criteria necessary for membership." For more than 10 years, Turkish foreign policy has focused on gaining EU membership. When the EU meets for a summit in Copenhagen in December, Turkish observers expect fresh clues about when the country might expect membership talks to begin. But to secure a place on the EU’s calendar, Turkey must implement several domestic reforms, a challenge that this latest political crisis will make more difficult. These include establishing minority rights for the country’s 12 million ethnic Kurds and abolishing the death penalty. (This would obviate the death sentence Turkey imposed on Kurdish militant Abdullah Ocalan in 2000.) In addition, Turkey has to make some concrete moves on resolving the long-running dispute over claims to land on Cyprus.

The crisis will force Ankara’s politicians to reevaluate these stubborn problems. For some time, the MHP had resisted the idea of taking up Cypriot and Kurdish issues. Since the rightists comprised the second-largest bloc in the three-party coalition government, a stalemate had emerged. But now Cem’s internationalism has yielded to the agenda of ministers much less sympathetic to EU-imposed reform, such as new Deputy Prime Minister Sukru Sina Gurel. Indeed, the government seems more likely to reject the EU’s demands. "Of course, the current government doesn’t want any break with the EU, but it could be heading that way if the MHP gets its way," Turan warns.

The MHP, which orchestrated the extraordinary session of parliament, is calling for a fresh election in November, while the smallest coalition partner, the pro-EU Motherland Party (ANAP) is calling for one at the end of September. The rightists want to scuttle the EU agenda, while the Motherland plan wants to give the government time to address the EU’s concerns. Both clash with other critical regional issues, such as preparation for possible war in Iraq. And both, accordingly, erode confidence in Turkey’s markets. "We’re very aware that in the US and European press the idea of a war with Iraq has come forward again," says Hakan Avci, market analyst for the Istanbul-based Global Securities. "This issue seems to be heading our way in early 2003 and is a big risk factor." An attack on Iraq would not only be deeply unpopular with most ordinary Turks, but also would not win the support of most political leaders.

Yet with the government in chaos, it is hard to know how Turkish politicians will deal with aggressive American or British agendas. "Irrespective of which government is in power," says Turan, "Turkey is a little apprehensive about any US interventions. Of course, it’s another question how much Turkey might be able to avoid getting involved in such a thing under US pressure."

Given this regional instability, an election could produce an unexpected result. The hope of the business and financial elite, along with many members of the urban middle class, is that Cem, along with Dervis and former deputy Prime Minister Hussametin Ozkan, will form a "dream team" party to unite the center. But these hopes have little foundation, and could quickly turn to hostility. "Many people have lost their jobs or seen their income slashed since the financial crisis," says analyst Alp Tekince of Istanbul’s Ekinciler Securities. "There’s a lot of bitterness that the economic program introduced with the backing of the IMF has done little to support ordinary Turks."

Any surviving political party could co-opt this bitterness and remake Turkey’s foreign policy, with major implications for the region and the country’s role in it. "Everything depends on what kind of government we have until elections come along, and how soon those elections can happen," says Turan.

Editor’s Note: Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.

2. - AFP - "Turkey's Ecevit says he could quit, parliament to vote on early election":

ANKARA / 15 July 2002 / by Sibel Utku

Embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said Monday he could resign, as his crisis-ridden government edged closer to collapse with more defections from his thin majority in parliament.

Ecevit, a five-time prime minister, took another blow as the parliamentary speaker called for a special session on September 1 to vote on early elections. The markets plunged again after Ecevit acknowledged Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, seen as a key to holding together Turkey's hopes of economic recovery, was under pressure from Ecevit's coalition partners to step down. The ailing 77-year-old Ecevit has seen a mass defection of support in the last week, including a direct political challenge from his foreign minister Ismail Cem, who launched a new party to vie for control of the nation.

The crisis has set off tremors in the European Union, which Turkey has been hoping to join, as well as the United States, a key NATO ally whose air bases in Turkey are a key part of its Middle East military strategy. US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is due in Ankara for talks beginning Tuesday. The prime minister, who refused a medical check-up two days ago and has largely absented himself from official duties for two months because of ill health, said his far-right coalition partner, the Nationalist Action party, wanted Dervis out.

"If (MHP leader Devlet) Bahceli insists that we should remove him, then I will reconsider my own position as well," Ecevit told the Milliyet newspaper. If Dervis is pushed out, he said: "Of course, this will become imperative." The MHP called for the removal of the respected economy minister after Ecevit kept him on despite his departure from the coalition and his alignment with Cem's new rival party. The MHP has fiercely opposed the free-market reforms which the European Union has insisted must be carried out to join the Brussels bloc, but has pledged to adhere to the IMF-backed economic program. Ecevit defended his position, telling the MHP in the interview: "We have very delicate relations with the IMF and the World Bank and we have to maintain those relations without shake-ups."

Turkey has a 16-billion-dollar loan deal with the IMF badly needed to restore stability as the nation faces one of the worst recessions in recent memory, and Dervis is widely respected as crucial to the bail-out. Dervis, a former World Bank vice president, stepped down Thursday but withdrew his resignation shortly afterwards under pressure to stay on as the guarantor of economic reform.

"The MHP has raised its voice against Dervis... If this means the disruption of the IMF program, then the markets will perceive it as very negative," said Hakan Avci from Global Securities. The Istanbul exchange fell again Monday, shedding 1.08 percent of its value. Meanwhile seven more MPs abandoned Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP), bringing the number of defectors since last Monday to 53 and watering down its majority to only six in the 550-seat parliament.

The crisis took another step as the parliament speaker summoned legislators, currently in recess, for an extraordinary session on September 1 to vote on the MHP call to bring elections forward to November. Ecevit has said he opposes bringing elections forward from 2004 because it would cost Turkey valuable time at a time of deep economic crisis and a deadlock over key reforms required under Turkey's EU bid. But early elections are seen by many as the only way out of the country's crisis, and political parties are already jockeying for position.

3. - AFP - "Turkish nationalists blame pro-EU movement for crisis":

ANKARA / 15 July 2002

The far-right coalition partner of embattled Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), said on Monday that pro-European Union political forces were behind the current political turmoil in the country.

"A scenario is being prepared on a European Union axis... Tactical alliances are being formed in the parliament," MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, whose party has become the biggest in parliament amid mass defections from Ecevit's party, told reporters. The MHP succeeded in its move to call parliament for an extraordinary session on September 1 to call November snap polls, a move that many believe was prompted by behind-the-scene efforts to oust the MHP from the government in order to advance EU-demanded reforms.

The MHP has deadlocked reforms required under Turkey's struggling bid to join the Union with stiff opposition to the abolition of the death penalty and legalizing education and broadcasts in the language of the Kurdish minority. The stalemate, along with the ill health of the 77-year-old Ecevit, is at the core of the current turmoil in Ankara which has brought the government to the brink of collapse. Bahceli accused pro-EU politicians of misleading the nation, saying the EU would not open accession talks with Ankara even if it carries out the requested reforms.

"We should not expect anything concrete from the EU as long as it continues to view Turkey as a disabled candidate," he said. Bahceli's anger appeared directed mostly at a new political party formed by the staunchly pro-EU former foreign minister Ismail Cem, one of the seven ministers and about 50 deputies that have abandoned Ecevit since last Monday.

Some commentators have suggested the looming early polls would constitute a referendum on Turkey's bid to join the pan-European bloc, which is supported by about 70 percent of the population of this mainly Muslim country. The MHP leader threw the gauntlet down to the two other government parties and the three major opposition parties, all of whom have lent support to democracy changes, to pass the required reforms if they could. Turkey, the laggard among the 13 membership candidates, has a self-imposed target of reaching a date for accession talks by the end of the year. Ankara fears that if it misses the target the country will be entirely left out of the EU's enlargement plans.

4. - The Washington Post - "An opportunity in Turkey":

16 July 2002

Bulent Ecevit, Turkey's sickly 77-year-old prime minister, is getting politically weaker by the day, and so is his country. Last week seven cabinet ministers resigned. Finance Minister Kemal Dervis, considered crucial to sustaining Turkey's precarious financial health, remained in office only after a special appeal by the president. Coming as it does in a nation that hosts U.S. warplanes, borders on Iraq and is one the few secular democracies in the Islamic world, the crisis could pose serious problems for the Bush administration. But it also may offer the United States and Europe an opportunity to nudge a key ally toward crucial political and economic reforms.

Ecevit's government is crumbling just as Turkey and its region face a daunting series of tests. In addition to the financial crunch, which has had Turkey teetering on the edge of default, the country faces a moment of truth with the European Union. After repeated disappointments in seeking full EU membership, Brussels has delivered a list of reforms that Turkey must complete.

These include abolishing the death penalty, liberalizing freedom of speech and easing controls on the long-persecuted Kurdish minority. If they are accomplished by the next EU summit at the end of the year, Turkey may finally be invited to begin formal negotiations on membership.

At that same meeting the EU will decide on membership for Cyprus, creating enormous pressure for the settlement of a 28-year conflict between the Turkish-controlled rump state on the northern end of that island and the majority Greek community.

To all that must be added the looming possibility of confrontation between the United States and Iraq. Pentagon planning for a war counts on Turkey's cooperation in serving as a base for U.S. forces. Ecevit, whose health has been failing along with his political support, manifestly lacks the strength to deal with these multiple challenges. Hardly anyone believes that his government can endure until the next scheduled election, in April 2004. The question is by whom it will be replaced. Some of the possibilities are unnerving - right-wing nationalists who oppose EU membership or political liberalization, or Islamicists whose success in any new elections would raise the risk of political intervention by the military.

Yet one of the strongest possibilities is also the most encouraging one. An alliance of pro-Western liberals, including just-resigned Foreign Minister Ismail Cem, has announced the formation of a new political party dedicated to carrying out political and economic reform and leading Turkey into the EU. If Ecevit can be removed from office, the reformers have a chance to assemble a majority in the current Parliament and push through reforms before holding elections. The result could be a decisive shift by Turkey toward the West, at a crucial moment in the region.

The Bush administration should do its best to encourage this outcome. It can do so by pressing Turkey's pro-Western forces to unite and by urging European governments to respond quickly and favorably if they do.

5. - Kurdish Observer - "Torture still spreading":

A report by the revealed that torture, a humanity crime, continued systematically once again. The said report for January 2001-June 2002 pointed out that torture under detention or in prisons, disappearances and summary executions continued, and there was no decrease on the number of torture, ill treatment and degrading treatment.

MHA/ANKARA / 15 July 2002

A report by the Turkish Human Rights Foundation (TIHV) revealed that torture, a humanity crime, continued systematically once again. The said report for January 2001-June 2002 pointed out that torture under detention or in prisons, disappearances and summary executions continued, and there was no decrease on the number of torture, ill treatment and degrading treatment.

The report wrote as follows: “Grave threats against security of life continue. Torture carries on as a threat against both the integrity of individual and societal integrity.” THIV established that from the beginning of 2001 to June 2002 at least 806 individuals were tortured, and 11 individuals died under detention and 26 prisoners in prisoners other than death fasters. The report stated that extending the duration of detention, incommunicado detentions, lack of access to a legal counsellor under interrogation, lack of proper medical examination after detention and not recording the detainees immediately were the grounds of a such a scene.

“What have you done so far?”

THIV Chairman Yavuz Onen said in a statement, “We are asking the Justice Minister. What have you done about the killings whose names, place of scenes and dates have been communicated. What have you done in order to eliminate systematic torture and ill treatment and for torture cases which are determined by us as at least 806?” The report also pointed out that tortures and those public employees who had caused death under detention or elsewhere were under administrational and legal protection, and prosecutors did not initiate an investigation for the claims or passed over them lightly. Drawing attention that especially in OHAL (State of Emergency Rule) region chiefs and officials were not prosecuted, the report stressed that if ever they were brought before the courts they were prosecuted without arrest or could not been found although their work places were unknown.

Minimum Penalty

The report attracted attention that defendants were not interrogated seriously and the evidences were expected from victims, adding that even if the evidences were proven the case were dismissed due to forfeiture. THIV also emphasized that in a few cases where perpetrators were condemned, the judges handed down sentences of minimum limits.

6. - San Francisco Chronicle - "Iraq herding Kurds":

Forced into refugee camps, non-Arabs await Hussein's removal

BENASLAWA - IRAQI KURDISTAN / 15 July 2002 / by Josua Kucera

Most are Kurds from the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, ground zero for a policy they call "Arabization," by which their lands are confiscated and given to Arabs. The refugees, now sheltering in the area carved out for Kurds after the Gulf War in 1991 and protected by U.S. and British warplanes, say Saddam Hussein's regime has intensified the program in recent months in an attempt to solidify its control of the Kirkuk area.

Kirkuk, a Kurdish city, is the center of the Iraqi oil industry and agriculture. Going back as far as the founding of Iraq after World War I, successive Arab-controlled governments in Baghdad have been expelling non- Arabs such as Kurds, Assyrian Christians and Turkomans, say non-Arabs and international rights groups.

"Iraq is accelerating the process so they can control us," said Nasih Ghafoor, a member of the Committee for Confronting Arabization in Kurdistan, based in Erbil. "These areas are very strategic areas, and the economy of Kurdistan depends on them."

According to a 2001 report by two French human rights groups, Kurds living in Kirkuk are subject to "harassment, intimidation, arrests, torture and expulsion."

Kurdish villages destroyed

In recent months, the Iraqi government has reportedly dug wells to smooth the way for the settling of the maximum possible number of Arabs, destroyed Kurdish shops, allocated residential plots of land in Kirkuk and its suburbs to Arab army officers, brought Arab tribes southeast of the city for settlement, and banned Kurdish sheepherders from selling their wares.

In other cases, entire Kurdish villages have been torn down and replaced with government housing for Arabs.

When Great Britain took parts of the crumbled Ottoman Empire and created Iraq after World War I, they included Kirkuk because the fledgling Iraqi state had few natural resources. The decision dashed the hopes of Kurds who wanted an independent state.

"From the beginning of the Iraqi state, they have feared Kurds," Ghafoor said. "They never considered Kurds to be first-class citizens."

Kurds hope that will be remedied once Hussein is gone -- possibly through a much-anticipated U.S. invasion.

Just this month, one of the two main Kurdish groups controlling the self- rule area drafted a wish-list constitution for a post-Hussein state that would divide Iraq into two federal regions -- Arab and Kurd, with Kirkuk acting as the administrative capital of the Kurdistan region, according to the London daily the Guardian.

Few changin ethnicities

Under Arabization, non-Arabs are required to change their ethnicity on identity cards and census documents. If they refuse, they can be deported to nearby Kurdish-controlled territory.

The invitation to change ethnicities has not had many takers, said Mohammed Osman, a resident of the Benaslawa refugee camp, 12 miles outside Erbil.

"We are Kurds. We refuse to be Arabs," said the 55-year-old truck driver, who lives in a mud-brick, concrete house with a well-tended garden.

Even those who change their classification still face discrimination in Iraq. They are not allowed to work in top government or oil industry jobs and may have to assume an Arabic name.

In Kirkuk, no education in the Kurdish language is offered, and the only media in Kurdish is a two-hour daily television program of propaganda from Hussein's Baath Party.

"When we were in Kirkuk, they forbade Kurds from owning houses or cars or marrying Arab girls. If we wanted a car, we had to register it in an Arab's name," said Azad Ali, 25, who was a high school student when he was evicted from Kirkuk in 1996 and is now a Kurdish soldier.

"The relations with ordinary Arab people weren't bad," he said. "The problem is with the authorities."

In 1996, Ali's father was arrested and held for a month after refusing to change his ethnic classification. Upon release, he was allowed to go home to pack his belongings and accompany his 13 family members to Benaslawa. They were not allowed to take furniture and appliances.

Since then, Ali's mother has been able to visit Kirkuk only once and found an Arab family living in their house.

There are no precise figures on how many non-Arabs have been forced to leave Kirkuk. The Committee for Confronting Arabization estimates that since the 1960s, 190,000 people have been expelled from Kirkuk province.

The committee is preparing a census to get more accurate numbers and expects the results in a few months.

Significant numbers of Turkomans (who are related to Turks) and Assyrian Christians also have been evicted from Kirkuk.

Assyrians deported

Yonadam Kanna, general secretary of the Assyrian Democratic Movement and a member of the autonomous Kurdish parliament, said Assyrians have been deported who are suspected of allegiance to the two main political parties in the U.N.- protected self-rule zone -- KDP (the Kurdish Democratic Party) and PUK (the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan).

"If you support (KDP President Massoud) Barzani, they push you into KDP territory," he said. "If you say (PUK President Jalal) Talabani, they push you into PUK territory."

The Kurds say that most of the Arabs who move into Kurdish areas receive financial incentives -- a new house with modern amenities, a plot of land to farm, or a better job -- and are even paid to rebury their relatives in Kirkuk to make it appear that the Arab presence has been a long one.

Baghdad also has imported thousands of palm trees into Kirkuk in an attempt to make the city look more like the Arab parts of Iraq, the committee said. The climate refused to cooperate, and the trees died.

Meanwhile, the Kurds are content to remain in their refugee camps until Hussein's removal.

"As long as the Baath Party is in power in Baghdad, I don't want to go back" to Kirkuk, Osman said. "I prefer this area."