1 July 2002

1. "Sickly Turkey gives way to despair", With the economy in tatters and their veteran leader dying, the Turks' fate seems to lie either with Islamists or the far right.

2. "Turks back EU bid, but leery of more rights for Kurds: poll", a majority of respondents in a Turkish opinion poll were in favour of the mainly Muslim country joining the European Union, but support for associated reforms to expand the rights of the Kurdish minority was much lower, a survey institute said Friday. The survey, conducted by the influential Turkish Foundation for Social and Economic Studies (TESEV), found that 64 percent would say "yes" if a referendum were held on Turkey's EU membership, while 30 percent would said "no" and six percent did not answer.

3. "Court rejects petition to overturn law slammed for Internet censorship", Turkey's top court on Thursday rejected a petition by opposition lawmakers to overturn parts of a law that has been criticized for opening the way to censorship of the Internet and allowing media monopolies.

4. "Turkish collapse feared as leader hints he'll quit", Bulent Ecevit yesterday. The ailing leader told MPs that early elections were on the horizon.

5. "HADEP members released from custody", HADEP Chairman Murat Bozlak made a speech during a solidarity dinner organized by the Umraniye District Directorate and stated: "Our members were released from custody today. As HADEP members, we do not want youths to go to the mountains, and we want those who are already there to turn back."

6. "IMF releases 1.15 billion dollar aid for Turkey", the IMF on Friday agreed to allow Turkey to draw some 1.15 billion dollars from its three-year stand-by credit, saying it had completed a review of the country's economic performance.

1. - The Observer / The Guardian - "Sickly Turkey gives way to despair":

With the economy in tatters and their veteran leader dying, the Turks' fate seems to lie either with Islamists or the far right

ISTANBUL / 30 June 2002 / by Johnny Dymond

Turkey's political and economic elite is so fearful of what the future might hold that it is praying that the dying 77-year-old Prime Minister, Bulent Ecevit, can somehow hold on.

He has been away from his office for almost two months, with spinal problems, stomach problems and a neurological disease that leaves him looking shaken and confused.

Pale and frail, Ecevit faced MPs from his left-of-centre party three days ago. He had travelled from his home to the parliament in Ankara to show he was still in control.

He could, he said, see early elections 'on the horizon'. Deputies should return to their districts and listen to the people in preparation for a campaign. It was what many had been saying ever since his long absence from official duties began. The financial markets shuddered.

An hour later came a correction; a written statement from his office said he had made a mistake; there were no plans for early elections; the government would serve out its full term. Even for a Prime Minister renowned for his corrections and clarifications, this was an impressive volte-face.

Turkey is now the International Monetary Fund's biggest single debtor. Partly because the markets are suspicious of the intentions of opposition parties when it comes to carrying out the IMF's plans, the Turkish lire has lost more than 20 per cent of its value since the Prime Minister's illness began (there are almost 2.5 million lire to the pound); interest rates have climbed by 15 per cent. One of the larger banks was taken into receivership this month; the shares of its sister bank, the second largest in Turkey, halved in value.

Turkey, a key Nato member, 65 million people strong, is at the edge of a political and economic precipice. Ecevit is almost certainly the only man who can hold the governing coalition together. Opinion polls suggest that the coalition would be swept from power in fresh elections.

The most popular group in parliament is the Islamist Justice and Development Party; the most energetic member of the coalition is the far-right Nationalist Action Party. Things have been bad before; but things have rarely been so bad for so long.

In a sports club in an upmarket part of Istanbul a group of young professionals play a long, hard game of volleyball until the sun has gone. Sitting down for orange juice and coffee afterwards, none is positive about the future. The contempt for the politicians of all colours spills out. 'Some of the politicians are illiterate,' says Haki Yigit, 41, a credit officer with the bank ABN Amro. 'One of them didn't finish primary school! Some of them can't talk properly, and one of them has got, is it two or three wives?'

'Something has to change in the way that politicians affect the economy,' chips in Nesli Hanaker, a 29-year-old woman who works in exports. 'There is something wrong with the politicians. If you don't have money you can't be elected.'

It is the threat of the Islamists, led by Tayip Erdogan, that inspires most comment rather than the far-right Devlet Bahceli, whose party has links with the Grey Wolves, a neo-fascist organisation that spread terror in the 1970s with assassinations and assaults on the Left.

'The Islamists were clever,' says Yigit. 'They changed the education system with their religious schools. Then when they came to power in 1997 they changed the people working for the state-owned companies so that it became their system.'

It is perhaps not surprising that the Islamists arouse their ire; the newspapers, owned by people who like to stay close to the government of the day, have been pouring scorn and scandal on Erdogan ever since he emerged as an electoral threat.

One paper which does not follow that line is the weekly cartoon paper LeMan; there is a lot of scatological humour, but there is a big dollop of politics too. For Turkey, still under the grip of the censor, it is close-to the-bone stuff.

The editor, Tuncay Akgun, sits in a small third-floor office in central Istanbul. Cartoons with grotesque caricatures of the Prime Minister sit on his desk. But he says he is stumped by Erdogan and Bahceli. 'Both of them have few of the gestures that a human should have and they are irritatingly aloof. Their politics are transparent - you can't see what they stand for. It's very hard to feel them, so they are not good cartoon characters,' he says. 'When these two take power we'll even miss Ecevit. But our pens will be much sharper this time,' he adds, making a stabbing motion, 'We will stick our pens straight into their hearts.'

Turkey often feels ignored by the outside world; foreigners who live here do not understand why there is so little interest in such a large and complex country. But that may have to change; an unstable Turkey on Europe's edge will set alarms ringing up and down the Foreign Ministries of Western Europe.

Among those who work on, watching their politicians manoeuvre as the economy plunges, there is not much hope. One volleyball player stayed silent throughout the conversation at the cafe. The bank Dilek Akan works for was announcing redundancies the next day; half the staff were to be dismissed.

'The politicians don't want to deal with the problems of Turkey,' he spat, 'they just want to earn money. As for the future, it won't be good for us; I think we are going down and down.'

2. - AFP - "Turks back EU bid, but leery of more rights for Kurds: poll":

ANKARA / 28 June 2002

A majority of respondents in a Turkish opinion poll were in favour of the mainly Muslim country joining the European Union, but support for associated reforms to expand the rights of the Kurdish minority was much lower, a survey institute said Friday. The survey, conducted by the influential Turkish Foundation for Social and Economic Studies (TESEV), found that 64 percent would say "yes" if a referendum were held on Turkey's EU membership, while 30 percent would said "no" and six percent did not answer.

Support for the need to legalize education and broadcasts in the Kurdish language, under basic EU democracy norms, which have already opened a deep rift in the three-way coalition of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, was much lower however. Fifty-two percent were against providing education in the Kurdish language and 47 percent said "no" to radio and television broadcasts in Kurdish.

On another controversial norm -- the abolition of capital punishment -- 62 percent said they would support such a reform if laws ensured that those sentenced to death remained in prison for life with no chance of being pardoned. Debates over lifting the capital punishment in Turkey are directly linked to the fate of Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan, the country's public enemy number one, who was sentenced to death for treason in 1999.

"The continuation of support for EU membership at this level is meaningful, taking into account the very negative developments and deep uncertainties on the EU issue in recent days," TESEV concluded. The government's Nationalist Action Party (MHP), the second biggest party in parliament, has expressed stiff opposition to the reforms, arguing that they would encourage Kurdish separatism and endanger the country's unity. The MHP stance has led to a deadlock in government efforts to improve Turkey's democratic credentials and catch up with EU standards.

The TESEV study also found out that knowledge of EU's basic norms, the Copenhagen criteria, was very low among Turks, standing at 2.7 points out of 10, with 58 percent of the respondents admitting they knew "nothing." Opinion was divided over whether Turkey, the only predominantly Muslim country among EU candidates, had a place in the pan-European bloc, with 49 percent maintaining that the EU was a "Christian club" and 42 percent believing that Muslim countries could also join.

Economic prosperity, free movement, improved democracy and decreased corruption were the main benefits Turks expected from EU membership, while they mostly worried that integration with the EU would weaken their religious and national values. Only 17 percent agreed with the MHP that EU membership could strengthen separatist movements. The TESEV study was conducted among 3,060 people in urban and rural regions and had a margin of error of 1.8 percent.

3. - AP - "Court rejects petition to overturn law slammed for Internet censorship":

ISTANBUL / 29 June 2002

Turkey's top court on Thursday rejected a petition by opposition lawmakers to overturn parts of a law that has been criticized for opening the way to censorship of the Internet and allowing media monopolies.

The law was passed by parliament last month, in defiance of a veto by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who said it was unconstitutional and would curb freedom of expression and threaten media diversity.

Sezer applied to the Constitutional Court to cancel parts of the law, and the court earlier this month voted to suspend implementation of some clauses of the law.

But the same court on Thursday rejected a petition by over 100 opposition deputies for the suspension of other parts of the law - including a clause that, according to critics of the law, could subject Web sites to harsh penalties already applied to Turkey's traditional media.

The clause brings "broadcasts and services made with every kind of technology and in every medium of communication" under the scope of Turkey's broadcasting watchdog. The watchdog regularly hands out fines or temporary closures for broadcasts that offend the military, question Turkey's treatment of its Kurdish minority or its strict secular policies, or offend traditional values.

Information technology groups have expressed fears that the law will allow broadcasting authorities to take similar action against Web sites - stunting the growth of the Internet in Turkey.

The head of the broadcasting watchdog has said he does not wish to see the body's authority extended to include the Internet. Government lawmakers, defending the measure, say it is not intended to apply to the Internet.

The court earlier this month overturned clauses including measures that would have allowed individuals to own larger chunks of Turkey's media, and increased the compensation that newspapers and broadcasters can be ordered to pay in court actions against them.

Critics of the law say the former measure was an effort by the government to buy the support of powerful media bosses, while the latter could drive small local publications and broadcasters out of business.

The court's verdicts this month were only concerned with whether to suspend implementation of the law. The court has yet to consider the applications by Sezer and the opposition deputies for the annulment of parts of the law - a process that could take up to a year.

4. - The Times - "Turkish collapse feared as leader hints he'll quit":

Bulent Ecevit yesterday. The ailing leader told MPs that early elections were on the horizon

ISTANBUL / 28 June 2002 / from Andrew Finkel

Turkey's ailing Prime Minister hinted yesterday that he might soon retire when he told MPs that early elections were “on the horizon” — prompting fears of instant political collapse in Nato’s key ally.

At the first meeting of his Democratic Left Party (DSP) since being taken ill in April, Bulent Ecevit tried to quash concern about his health and his Government’s programme of economic recovery. The suggestion of elections, however, sent the markets into freefall and prompted Mr Ecevit to deny that a change of government was being considered.

Mr Ecevit, who suffers from a chronic neurological disorder and has been in hospital for weeks, had appeared to open the way for his retirement by urging MPs to spend the summer in their constituencies as an early election was “now on the horizon”. “I see great benefit in our deputies travelling into the villages in the summer and spending their time there,” he added.

Earlier, MPs stood to cheer their leader, who was too weak to mount the podium of the party caucus and spoke from a specially constructed rostrum.

Later, Mr Ecevit, 77, made it clear that he was not resigning. He told reporters outside his home in Ankara that a snap poll was “out of the question” and that his government would serve its full term, which runs until April 2004.

The great fear in the political and commercial world is a collapse of the Government over disputes between the DSP and the right-wing Nationalist Action Party over reforms to qualify for talks on European Union membership. Dissent has grown since Mr Ecevit was taken ill. Few believe that his fragile three-party coalition could survive the strain of having the Turkish President appoint a new prime minister. It is not clear either that a fresh election would produce a more clear-cut result.

Most opinion polls suggest that the electorate hold all politicians in equal contempt, with parties struggling to obtain more than the 10 per cent of the national vote that each needs to qualify for seats in parliament. One survey suggested that the only party to get over this hurdle was the Justice and Development party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a former Mayor of Istanbul. That result would mean that a party which the Turkish military suspects of having a hidden Islamic agenda would control all 550 MPs.

Mr Erdogan may not be the religious radical his rivals fear, but he remains untested. This will concern Nato, which recently saw Ankara inherit from Britain the command of the peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan. Turkey’s ability to remain “on mission” in the post-September 11 world order has not gone unappreciated:the International Monetary Fund granted Turkey an extra £10.4 billion to avoid defaulting on its debts.

The immediate fear of investors is not that Turkey will become an Islamic state, but that sustained election fever will force the Government to abandon its commitments to reforms sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, which include lowering the rate of inflation to 35 per cent.

Ankara verged on default in February 2001 when a row between Mr Ecevit and President Sezer helped to expose a deeper financial sector crisis. In an ensuing devaluation, the economy shrank by 10 per cent. Responsibility to right things was given to a former World Bank vice-president, Kemal Dervis, and pressure from international lenders persuaded parliament to undertake the reforms. Last week Turkey’s banking authoritytook into receivership, on the approval of Mr Ecevit, the private Pamuk Bankfound to be £1.3 billion in debt.

5. - Turkish Daily News - "HADEP members released from custody":

ANKARA / 29 June 2002

Following an operation conducted by the Terrorism Action Branch of the General Directorate of Security in Bursa, seven People's Democracy Party (HADEP) members, including Bursa Provincial Chairman Hamdullah Yilmaz and Yildirim District Chairman Kemal Yildrak, were brought before the judiciary to give statements. They were released from custody, but the trial will continue.

HADEP Chairman Murat Bozlak made a speech during a solidarity dinner organized by the Umraniye District Directorate and stated: "Our members were released from custody today. As HADEP members, we do not want youths to go to the mountains, and we want those who are already there to turn back."

He also added: "HADEP's aim is to come to power. We will endeavour with the public to democratize Turkey. We will achieve this legally."

6. - AFP - "IMF releases 1.15 billion dollar aid for Turkey":

WASHINGTON / 29 June 2002

The IMF on Friday agreed to allow Turkey to draw some 1.15 billion dollars from its three-year stand-by credit, saying it had completed a review of the country's economic performance.

The decision will enable Turkey to immediately draw 1.15 billion dollars from a 17 billion dollar three-year program to help the county's economic recovery. So far, Turkey has drawn 11 billion dollars from the program.

The IMF executive board made the decision after IMF officials noted that Turkey has made progress in recapitalizing its banks The IMF has said that Turkey is on the right economic track despite a 9.4 percent contraction in the economy last year.