8 January 2002

1. "THE FORCE OF ISLAM - Turkey, on Road to Secularism, Fears Detour", nowhere does the war against Islamic extremism have more resonance than in Turkey: for eight decades, the country has used draconian laws and the threat of force to crush pro-Islamic politicians and protect secular ideals.

2. "44 books were banned last year in Turkey", January 2002: During the year 2000, 20 different books from 20 publishers were banned, and this number doubled in 2001, in Turkey.

3. "Turkish prison hunger strike claims its 44th victim", Turkey's year-long hunger strike against controversial jail reforms claimed its 44th victim over the weekend, the Turkish human rights association IHD told AFP on Monday.

4. "Three sentenced to death for Turkish murders", a Turkish court on Monday sentenced three men to death on charges linked to the killings of prominent supporters of a secular state, including a former culture minister and an investigative journalist.

5. "Turkey: Slashed Gas Forecast May Spell Trouble For Neighbors", Turkey's downward revision of its gas demand forecast could spell trouble for several countries that have staked their pipeline plans on its prospects. But despite a slumping economy, Ankara still insists that its gas needs will grow rapidly this year.

6. "Implementation key word in new public procurement law", Turkey last week adopted bills reforming public procurement procedures, which officials said, if implemented properly, could largely eliminate irregularities and difficulties caused by the existing legislation.

1. – The New York Times – "THE FORCE OF ISLAM - Turkey, on Road to Secularism, Fears Detour":

ISTANBUL / by DOUGLAS FRANTZ

Nowhere does the war against Islamic extremism have more resonance than in Turkey: for eight decades, the country has used draconian laws and the threat of force to crush pro-Islamic politicians and protect secular ideals.

But with Turkey haunted by economic stagnation, scandals and weak leadership, the generals, who wield the real power, have had their hands full containing the popularity of a former Istanbul mayor who is trying to shed his fundamentalist background and wrap himself in a cloak of moderation.

The government's problems are giving the ex-mayor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a chance at a national electoral victory in 2004 that no aggressively Islamic politician has ever achieved.

Mr. Erdogan was a rising star in Turkey's Islamic political movement as Istanbul's mayor in the 1990's; even critics acknowledge that he cleaned up the streets, improved public services and reduced the endemic corruption.

But his insistence that religion play a greater role in political life collided with secular Turkey's unbending prohibition against mixing religion and politics. He was forced out of office and jailed for publicly reciting a poem that was deemed seditious.

Today Mr. Erdogan (pronounced ehr-doh- han) is making a strong comeback at the helm of a new party, aided by public disenchantment with the three-party governing coalition and its inability to halt inflation and curb rising unemployment.

"The world is a different place and I am a different person," Mr. Erdogan, 47, said in an interview at the sleek headquarters of his Justice and Development Party in Ankara. "Turkey should become a model for the Muslim world in terms of science, lifestyle, international relations and economics."

The Nation The Tug of War Between Old and New

Mr. Erdogan's popularity suggests that he could become the next prime minister, but the prospect of an Islamic politician, however reformed, leading Turkey sends shudders through secular-minded Turks and Western allies, particularly the United States.

In the aftermath of Sept. 11, Turkey gained new importance to the coalition against Osama bin Laden, and for all its flaws on human rights, Turkey is a stable synthesis of democracy and Islam in a volatile Islamic world. Many regard it as a model for moderate Muslims and a counterweight to the angry voices of radicals.

With Muslims worldwide rejecting the secular values of the United States and Europe, Turkey reflects the faith's less ferocious and more tolerant face. Even its most ardent religious leaders and Islamic-oriented politicians do not advocate violence or oppressive orthodoxy.

On a practical level, Turkey, the only predominantly Muslim member of NATO and an ally of Israel, is also an essential American friend: It granted access to its airspace and provided bases to American warplanes, and has promised to send troops to Afghanistan. If the United States attacks neighboring Iraq, Turkey will be even more vital, and the inherent tensions between its religion and its Western orientation will become more acute.

To many, Mr. Erdogan represents a threat to the rigid safeguards that have held religion in check and maintained Turkey's status as the most moderate and Western- oriented Muslim country.

But Mr. Erdogan is trying to shift his image. The religious rhetoric has been scrubbed away and his old opposition to NATO and the European Union set aside. That way he hopes to

avoid any retribution by the generals, who could come back at him if he proves too religious for them. Elections are set for 2004; pollsters say his party would win handily if the vote was held now.

The country he may lead is complex. Western ways, embodied by television, films and tourism, are widely embraced. In Istanbul, short skirts are as common as religious head scarves, and alcohol flows freely.

"Turkey is not Iran," Meltem Eke, a stylish woman in her 30's, said at her bagel shop in the upscale Nisantasi district. "I am from a neighborhood that values the woman no less than the man."

But Turkey is at once modern and backward, democratic and repressive. The differences are sharp between the urban bustle and the sense that time stands still in the villages. There is a divide between the secular generals and business leaders, and those like Mr. Erdogan, who would like to see more religion in the mix of governing.

Within those contradictions lies a tension that is always just below the surface and always the object of careful monitoring by the generals. A further tightening of measures to control Islamic movements and businesses is now under review by the National Security Council.

The History From Broad Tolerance To Rigid Secularism

Turkey's singular position among Muslim nations is rooted in history.

The Ottoman sultans brought Islam to what is now Turkey by defeating the Byzantine emperor Constantine XI in 1453. In time, the Ottomans ruled an empire stretching from southern Europe to northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula.

The sultans were simultaneously political leaders and supreme rulers of the Muslim world. Rather than a strict religious government, however, they kept state and religion separate and demonstrated tolerance for other religions and customs.

"From the Ottoman period to today, our experience and traditions have made Turkish Islam more open to secular development than was the case in other Islamic societies," the foreign minister, Ismail Cem, said in an interview.

After the Ottoman empire shriveled in the late 19th and early 20th century, the sultans were followed by Ataturk, the general and determined secularist who founded the Turkish republic in 1923. For Ataturk, religion was the greatest threat to his dream of a European republic at the gateway to Asia.

Ataturk's insistence on secularism was ruthless. Control over education was taken away from religious leaders, Islamic courts were closed, equal rights for women were championed. The Islamic calendar was scrapped in favor of the Gregorian calendar used in the West; Arabic script was replaced by the Roman alphabet.

2. – Ozgur Politika – "44 books were banned last year in Turkey":

January 2002: During the year 2000, 20 different books from 20 publishers were banned, and this number doubled in 2001, in Turkey.

According to the 2001 report of the Turkish Publishers' Association, in general, there has been a decrease on the prohibition of books published in Turkey.

In 2001, the report reveals, 44 cases were started and that in many cases the books confiscated or banned before the release, when the judicial process had not even started.

In 2001, 38 authors and 23 publishers faced trial, while this number in 2000 was 14 publishers. The report notes that publishers handling subjects such as, "Kurdish question,

human rights, history of the Turkish left and sexuality" run the risk of facing prosecution.

The report was prepared for the Turkish Publishers' Association by the head of Belge Publishings and the Yedinci Gundem Newspaper, Ragip Zarakoglu, who said that recent

changes to the Turkish Constitution has improved the situation slightly; but the real big changes regarding freedom of expression has still not taken place.

Zarakoglu said that there has been interesting cases last year such as the prohibition of the first Turkish Encyclopaedia, 'Kamus'ul Alam, for containing sections on Kurds.

The banning of Ali Nihat Ozcan's work, "PKK: History, Ideology and Method", published by Euraisa Strategic Research Center (ASAM), a pro-state think-tank, was also met with surprise.

The book published by Arayis Publishing "1982 Scripts" was confiscated from the printhouse. Ankara State Security Court ordered the documents to be destroyed.

Abdullah Ocalans defence scripts to the European Court of Human Rights were also among the banned books. Some of the banned authors were, Noam Chomsky, Mahmu Baksi, Pedro Almodavar, Wadie Jwadieh, Aysun Yuksel and Nese Duzel.

(translated by Robin Kurd / Kurdish Media)

3. – AFP – "Turkish prison hunger strike claims its 44th victim":

ANKARA

Turkey's year-long hunger strike against controversial jail reforms claimed its 44th victim over the weekend, the Turkish human rights association IHD told AFP on Monday. Zeynel Karatas, 23, died in the new kind of jail he and other inmates and their families have been protesting against since the strike was launched in October 2000.

Karatas, who had been on hunger strike for several months, had been locked up since December 2000 for belonging to a clandestine extreme-left organisation, the TKP-ML. The hunger strike began across Turkish prisons in October 2000 against new jails with tighter security.

In addition to 44 who have died in the hunger strike itself, four inmates have burned themselves to death in support of the strike and another four people died in a police raid in November on an Istanbul house occupied by hunger strikers. The protestors, mainly members of outlawed extreme-left groups, say the new jails, where cells for up to three people replaced large dormitories housing dozens, increase social alienation and leave prisoners more vulnerable to maltreatment.

The government has categorically ruled out a return to the dormitory system, arguing the packed compounds had become strongholds for criminal groups, which frequently rioted and took prison officials hostage.

4. – Reuters – "Three sentenced to death for Turkish murders":

ANKARA

A Turkish court on Monday sentenced three men to death on charges linked to the killings of prominent supporters of a secular state, including a former culture minister and an investigative journalist.

Verdicts were handed down on a total of 24 alleged Islamist rebels in a trial that marked the end of high-profile Turkish efforts to solve a series of killings of secularists and leftists in the 1990s. Lawyers for the defendants had denied charges they belonged to a secretive religious group

that aimed to replace Turkey's legal system with one based on Islamic law.

A panel of three judges in a state security court in the capital Ankara found three men guilty of "trying to overturn the constitutional order by force and replace it with a state based on religious principles" -- a crime officially punishable by death.

However, the death sentences are unlikely to be carried out as Turkey, a candidate for European Union membership, has put an effective moratorium on executions. It has not carried out the death penalty since the mid 1980s.

Two of the accused had refused to testify in earlier hearings, saying they had been tortured in custody.

The court sentenced another 16 of the defendants to jail terms of between three and 15 years and acquitted four others. One was ordered to be retried on a lesser charge.

The accused had been arrested as part of long-running investigations into the murders of secularist intellectuals, including the killings of former Culture Minister Ahmet Taner Kislali and investigative journalist Ugur Mumcu.

Both died in car bombs, Kislali in 1999 and Mumcu in 1993.

Both were writers for the secularist Cumhuriyet newspaper and public defenders of Turkey's secular constitution.

5. – Radio Free Europe – "Turkey: Slashed Gas Forecast May Spell Trouble For Neighbors":

BOSTON / by Michael Lelyveld

Turkey's downward revision of its gas demand forecast could spell trouble for several countries that have staked their pipeline plans on its prospects. But despite a slumping

economy, Ankara still insists that its gas needs will grow rapidly this year.

Turkey has slashed its forecast of natural gas demand in 2002, raising new doubts about the pipeline plans of countries including Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran.

On 24 December, the Turkish pipeline monopoly Botas cut its estimate of gas demand by 8.7 percent from forecasts made a year earlier, according to figures posted without comment on

the company's website.

According to Botas, Turkey will need 21.2 billion cubic meters of gas this year, a decline from its earlier forecast of 23.3 billion. The cut reflects lower expectations for the Turkish economy.

The International Monetary Fund recently revised its economic outlook to show a steeper decline in 2001 and a weaker recovery than were previously envisioned.

Last month, the IMF said that Turkey's gross domestic product would drop 6.1 percent in 2001 instead of the 4.3-percent loss forecast in October. This year, GDP is expected to grow 4.1 percent, instead of the stronger 5.9-percent increase predicted before.

Despite billions of dollars in IMF loans, the country is still struggling with an economic crisis that followed a political row last February. While the signs of the slow progress have been clear for months, Turkish officials have been even slower to adjust their energy forecasts accordingly.

Turkey's prospects are important to countries including Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran because all three have either built or planned costly pipelines in the belief that Turkey's gas market would grow at rapid rates. Algeria and Nigeria are also Turkish suppliers, while Turkmenistan

has an agreement for future gas sales. Turkey has discussed even more purchases from Iraq and Egypt.

Much of the activity has been driven by bullish forecasts from Botas, which have consistently proven too high. In 1998, the company predicted that Turkey's gas consumption would reach 19 billion cubic meters in the year 2000. Last June, Botas reported a consumption figure of 14.6 billion, although independent estimates were considerably less.

An earlier economic crisis and Turkey's devastating 1999 earthquake were partly responsible for the huge 23 percent shortfall. The country has fallen behind on building distribution networks and power plants. But bad forecasting has also been partly to blame.

Botas still predicts that gas demand will rise 20 percent this year and more than double that rate by 2004. To meet the estimate for this year, gas demand would have to grow five times faster than the economy.

Turkey has yet to publish consumption figures for 2001, but the Reuters news agency said last month that usage is expected to be 14.6 billion cubic meters, or in other words, no growth from the year before.

Perhaps most controversial is the Botas forecast that the country will need 55 billion cubic meters of gas by 2010. The company has stuck to that figure through good times and bad, despite analysts' estimates that it may be more than 40 percent too high.

Snam Spa, a division of the ENI petroleum company of Italy, recently cited estimates that Turkey's gas need will reach only 38 billion cubic meters by 2010. The reference is notable because ENI is a partner in Russia's Blue Stream project to pipe gas under the Black Sea to Turkey starting this year. One might expect that its forecasts would be as rosy as those of Botas.

Turkish energy officials have apparently shunned reality for fear of scaring foreign pipeline investors. But the demand for reality may be greater than the demand for more gas.

A report last month by IBS Research & Consultancy said, "A first requirement is the need for more credible energy demand forecasts for the country." The Istanbul-based firm added, "Our own view is that...Turkey now faces up to six years of energy sufficiency."

Last month, Botas General Manager Gokhan Bildaci told the Turkish newspaper Dunya Gazetesi that the company has been trying to bargain down the amount of its "take-or-pay"

contract with Russia's Gazprom. Turkey will have no room for surplus gas storage until 2005, Bildaci said. IBS said the surplus problem could leave Turkey with a liability of up to $700 million a year.

Some U.S. officials see a pipeline to Greece as a solution to the surplus problem. But progress has been slow, in part because Turkey refused to question its own estimates for years. It is also far from clear that a pipeline under the Black Sea to Turkey would have been considered the most efficient way to supply Russian gas to Greece, if the surplus issue had been addressed earlier.

The new Botas figures on contract obligations show an effort to push back and reduce supplies from Russia and Turkmenistan. The slowdown has already affected Iran, which started deliveries in December after months of delays. Azerbaijan also hopes to start work on a 900-kilometer line that can start to pump gas to Turkey by 2005.

Each country will share a stake in Turkey's progress through its pipeline connections, as well as a share of its problems.

6. – The Financial Times – "Implementation key word in new public procurement law":

ANKARA

Turkey last week adopted bills reforming public procurement procedures, which officials said, if implemented properly, could largely eliminate irregularities and difficulties caused by the existing legislation.

The new public procurement law that has yet to be published in the Official Gazette rules out the announcement of a unit price for works tendered by state agencies, whereby the

administration hopes to eliminate abusive behavior and corruption in state tenders. Another related bill regulating the type of public contracts also cleared parliament late on Friday.

The public procurement law, which will be effective beginning from January 1, 2003, aims to align Turkey's legislation to that of the European Union and ensure transparency, competition, fairness and effective use of public resources.

"The law addresses scores of our complaints and cleared the parliament in the best possible shape. But what matters is implementation," head of the Turkish Contractors Union Kadir Sever told the Turkish Daily News.

Under the new law, government agencies will not be able to put up tenders unless adequate funds are allocated. A proposal that was added into the law during parliamentary debate on Friday also prevents administrations from exceeding the initially estimated price of a particular work.

"The outgoing legislation allows this limit to be exceeded by 30 percent, which has been causing abuse, but the current form is too strict. It should have allowed at least a 10 percent margin," Sever said, in criticism of the new legislation.

Enactment of the law has been delayed to 2003 because a number of regulations will have to be published by the state tender authority, which is also established by the law. The public tender authority will have ten members, two from the Finance Ministry, three from the Public Works and Housing Ministry, one each from the State Ministry in charge of the Treasury, Council of State, High Court of Audits, Union of Chambers (TOBB) and Turkish Employers Union.

The law brings together state economic enterprises, municipalities and other independent public agencies as well as institutions included in the central government and annex budget.

Certain procurements in the public sector will nevertheless be excluded from the scope of the law. Accordingly contracts related to national defense, security and intelligence are, for instance, not subject to the clauses of the new law.

The law also sets some threshold values on public contracts whereby foreign contractors will not be allowed to participate in tenders below a certain value. These threshold values are TL 750 billion for contracts put up by public institutions subject to the central government and

annex budget, TL 1 trillion for procurements of other administrations and TL 17.5 trillion for building contracts put up by administrations. These figures will be raised every year by the wholesale prices index corresponding to the previous year.

If the price of the contract is above the aforementioned thresholds, local contractors may enjoy a 15 percent discount. Local firms venturing with foreign partners will not benefit from such discounts, however.

"It's a very rational move," Sever said, commenting on the provision. "I don't think it will cause any problems for foreign firms. They are not interested in Turkish contracts that are not of substantial value," he added.