Untitled Document

12 December 2002

1. "Campaign for Ocalan started", the Kurdistan National Congress (KNK) and KADEK organized a press statement in Brussels yesterday and started a campaign for claiming and defending President Apo between December 10, 2002 and February 15, 2003.

2. "Washington plays down human rights criteria and urges talks for Turkey", the US has asked the European Union to give Turkey a firm and early date to start accession talks, even if its human rights reforms are incomplete.

3. "The year 2002, a bad year for human rights", Izmir Bar Association released a statement on the 54th anniversary of the Human Rights Declaration ratified by the United Nations (U.N.) in 1948. The bar stressed that despite there were improvements in human rights since the approval of the Human Right Declaration, the year 2002 was a worrying year in which some retrogressive events were experienced due to the human rights in both Turkey and abroad. (...) "Turkey convicted in European court for banning DEP", the European Court of Human Rights upheld a complaint from former deputies of the defunct Democracy Party (DEP) and sentenced Turkey to pay compensation for violating articles of the European Convention on Human Rights regulating freedom of association while closing down pro-Kurdish the party.

4. "Turkey knocks at Europe's door", Ankara's membership bid looms as the prickliest issue at the EU expansion summit, beginning today.

5. "Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- the new prime minister of Turkey?", among the Turkish public there is consensus that the voters voted for Recep Tayiip Erdogan. They would like to see him as Prime Minister. He is a charismatic leader and a fiery orator. He is, however, untested in administration. The expectations of the Turkish masses are high. The economic realities are harsh. He has to prove if after winning elections he can run the administration efficiently.

6. "Northern Iraq on the boil", Kurds’ struggle with Islamists aggravates tensions. As a war against Iraq looms, region’s players are jockeying for position.

1. - Kurdish Observer - "Campaign for Ocalan started":

The Kurdistan National Congress (KNK) and KADEK organized a press statement in Brussels yesterday and started a campaign for claiming and defending President Apo between December 10, 2002 and February 15, 2003.

BRUSSELS / 11 December 2002 / by Devrim Aslan an Firaz Baran for MHA

Speaking at the press conference in Brussels, The Kurdistan National Congress (KNK) Chairman Ismet Serif Vanli stated that Kurds were consisted of nearly 25-30% of the population and Turkey could be a member of the European Union only by solving the Kurdish question. Vanli emphasized that Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) had launched a peace process but Europe had not approach it positively, saying that Kurds supported Turkey for its accession to EU. The KNK Chairman also asked for a general amnesty including the guerrilla. “The Kurdish question must be solved by both Kurdish and Turkish peoples” said Vanli.

And KADEK representative Adem Uzun congratulated 10 December The World Human Rights Day. “If Turkey wishes stability, inner tranquillity and peace, it must change. We, as KADEK, have experienced a transformation and put an end to the war” said Uzun. The representative stressed that a possible big Turkish-Kurdish war had been prevented by KADEK President Abdullah Ocalan and an opportunity for democratisation had been offered.

Call to the government

Expressing that the government was undergoing a test, Uzun said the following: “If they want democracy and inner peace, they must try to solve the Kurdish question. A positive approach to our President means a positive approach to Kurds and vice versa. Because the fate of our President is intertwined with the fate of the Kurdish people.”

Uzun underlined KADEK Declaration for Urgent Solution as a project for the AKP government to change itself and declared “The Campaign to Claim and Defend President APO” between December 10, 2002 and February 15, 2003. The representative listed the demands from the government as follows: “The life conditions of our President Abdullah Ocalan should be improved urgently. Necessary laws should be enacted for his freedom and amnesty for all political prisoners, the guerrilla and political refugees and F-Type Prisons (cell type) should be abandoned. Perpetrators of unlawful killings should be brought before court. Village guards system should be eliminated, return to village should be facilitated and their damages should be paid. Law on education in mother tongue should be amended, all bans on broadcasting in Kurdish should be lifted. Freedom of expression and association should be secured, existence and identity of Kurds should be expressed in the constitution and laws. Authority of local administrations should be increased. Policies and projects should be implemented for women to participate in all areas of life equally.”

“Demands should be met”

Uzun stated that in case that the demands were not met until February 15 KADEK would determine a new policy. The KADEK representative replied a question on EU saying the following: “EU included PKK into its list of terrorist organisations. It is a trap for Turkey as well. EU will make the solution more difficult, in fact Europe has played a role on the Kurdish question. Europe has to fulfil its obligations. If EU wants Turkey first of all the Kurdish question should be solved. Without solving the Kurdish question Turkey will not be democratised.”

2. - Financial Times - "Washington plays down human rights criteria and urges talks for Turkey":

BRUSSELS / 12 December 2002 / by Judy Dempsey

The US has asked the European Union to give Turkey a firm and early date to start accession talks, even if its human rights reforms are incomplete.

In a confidential letter to Chris Patten, the EU's external affairs commissioner, Colin Powell, US secretary of state, appeared to play down the EU's "Copenhagen criteria". Mr Powell admitted Turkey was likely to have met only "some of the conditions" by late 2003, but should nevertheless qualify for talks.

The criteria set out the political principles any country must meet before starting accession talks. They entail full respect for human rights - including minority rights, the abolition of torture and the complete withdrawal of the military from political life.

Mr Powell's letter follows weeks of pressure by the Bush administration on the Commission and most of the 15 member states to open its doors to Turkey, a candidate member since 1999.

European leaders will debate Turkey's candidacy when they meet at an EU summit tonight in Copenhagen.

A senior EU diplomat criticised Mr Powell's position. "We set great store by the criteria," he said. "Sometimes we get the impression Washington thinks the EU is just a political organisation, not a set of obligations."

US officials in Brussels said Washington always insisted Turkey had to meet the criteria before starting accession talks.

Mr Powell's letter came as President George W. Bush telephoned Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Danish prime minister and current president of the European Council, to put Turkey's case for EU membership.

Mr Rasmussen was reported to have told Mr Bush that the EU has rules it cannot bend.

With the US stepping up its plans for a military attack against Iraq, diplomats said the US needed maximum support from Turkey, a Nato ally and crucial force in maintaining stability in the eastern Mediterranean.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Turkey's governing Justice and Development party, presented Ankara's demands for supporting US military action when he met Mr Bush in Washington earlier this week.

Mr Erdogan asked the US to persuade EU countries to give Turkey an early date for starting accession talks, linking such a date to a deal over the divided island of Cyprus, another issue EU leaders will discuss tonight.

France and Germany have already agreed to review Turkey's progress on meeting the Copenhagen criteria in late 2004 when the Commission has completed its annual "progress report" on the country.

Depending on that report, Paris and Berlin said a summit at the end of 2004 would decide if accession talks could start in May of the following year. "The criteria have to be met. Full stop," said a French official.

Meanwhile, Denmark and the Commission were last night drawing up the final financial package for the 10 candidate countries. Günter Verheugen, enlargement commissioner, said he fully expected a deal since there was still €2.1bn ($2.12bn) left in the 2000-2006 budget to wrap up this biggest-ever enlargement.

* Britain warned yesterday that hopes of a deal for Cyprus to join the European Union as a reunited island have receded, writes Christopher Adams.

Jack Straw, UK foreign secretary, insisted he had not given up trying to secure a peace deal between the island's estranged Greek and Turkish communities, which are considering a draft agreement offered by United Nations mediators.

He urged both sides to resolve the long-standing dispute. But he voiced doubts about reaching a peace deal by this weekend: "The signs are not as hopeful as they were a week ago."

3. - Turkish Daily News - "The year 2002, a bad year for human rights":

IZMIR / 12 December 2002 / by Serdar Alyamac

Izmir Bar Association released a statement on the 54th anniversary of the Human Rights Declaration ratified by the United Nations (U.N.) in 1948. The bar stressed that despite there were improvements in human rights since the approval of the Human Right Declaration, the year 2002 was a worrying year in which some retrogressive events were experienced due to the human rights in both Turkey and abroad.

Stating that following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, many countries, particularly the U.S., had restricted basic rights and freedoms because of security reasons. In many countries, especially the U.S. and European countries, backlash to Arabians and Muslims increased, as a result of wrong politics implemented by some.

The bar emphasized that an anxious process had started, where basic rights and freedoms were suspended. This crippling process in human rights of the world caused increases in human right violations in Turkey, whose transcript was already bad. Despite the sweeping reform package legislated on August 3, there remained some points to be focused on.

The bar cited torture as the most prominent problem in human rights violations in Turkey. "In the first 10 months of the year 2002, 870 people have applied to the Turkey Human Rights Foundation (TIHV) claiming to have been subjected to torture or degrading treatment. Some 288 of these 870 people have proved their claim with a health report confirming the torture they were subjected to. Furthermore, in this period of 10 months, five people have lost their lives under custody and three people have gone missing."

The bar also stressed that according to data from the Human Right Association (IHD), during the first six months 15,469 people were taken into custody and 381 people have applied to the IHD, claiming they were subjected to torture and human degrading treatment during custody. "According to the data of the Interior Ministry, 153 civil servants were tried in 2002 on charges of degrading treatment and only one of them was punished. On the other hand, three civil servants were tried on charges of torture and nobody was punished in these cases," the statement said.

The bar also emphasized that these verdicts were contrary to the superiority of law and have undermined messages to alter social beliefs. "In the case of Suleyman Yeter, accused policemen were punished. However, their punishments were decreased and they were released and reprimanded. Furthermore, in the Manisa case accused policemen on duty could not be summoned to trial, and their involvement in the case went towards overtime.

The emergency rules applications that were lifted on November 30 featured in the bar's declaration. "Despite the emergency rules application lifted in the southeastern region on November 30, the 'situation of emergency rules' that as been continuing for about 24 years is continuing in daily life. The most prominent indicators of this situation is the village guard practice and infringements experienced in the process of returning to villages."

"The constraints and bans on freedom of thought have been continuing. From data of the IHD covering the first six months of 2002, 2,260 people were tried on thought crimes and 112 people were sentenced to a total of 165 years in jail and fined a total of TL 58 billion. Closed political institutions, nongovernmental organizations, publications and cultural centers number 78. Some 87 publications were also levied or banned."

Further statistics revealed include the number of thought criminals in jail is 101, though according to official figures this number is 73. Some 533 of 3,621 students who were taken into custody for raising a petition on Kurdish education were arrested. "Unfortunately, F-type prison problems were not solved yet and the hunger-strikes protesting the implementation of cell-based F-type prison has been continuing, so far claiming the lives of 101 inmates. Due to the problem, the observing prison commissions formed by the Justice Ministry are not independent and impartial. Since the establishment of these commissions, no noteworthy work of these commissions has been observed, Furthermore, some members of these commissions were involved in human rights violations.

The bar also states some solutions to solve human rights violations by underlining the importance of implementation of legal amendments to prevent the violations. "The investigations into claims of torture or degrading treatment should be started immediately without provision. The state should ensure the right for the suspect to confer with her/his lawyer. Officers who have committed crimes of torture should be judged fairly and influentially and if necessary should be punished. All legal applications causing torturers not to be punished should be lifted. Torture should be included to crimes against humanity. Officers who are tried of torture or degrading treatment should be temporarily dismissed during the trial. The State Security Courts (DGM) that constrain the right of being fairly tried should abolished. Obstacles in front of freedom of thought should be removed. All the legal and administrative barriers in front of persons and institutions dealing with human rights should lifted."

Turkey convicted in European court for banning DEP

ANKARA / 12 December 2002

The European Court of Human Rights upheld a complaint from former deputies of the defunct Democracy Party (DEP) and sentenced Turkey to pay compensation for violating articles of the European Convention on Human Rights regulating freedom of association while closing down pro-Kurdish the party.

DEP was closed down in 1994 after the Constitutional ruled that it had ties with separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

But the European Court of Human Rights upheld the complaint of the party's former deputy Mehmet Hatip Dicle and said there was not sufficient grounds for the closure decision and as such Turkey has violated Article 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights on freedom of association.

The court also ruled that Turkey should pay 210,000 euros to Dicle in compensation.

Following the closure decision, Dicle and four other former DEP deputies were sentenced to imprisonment for links to the PKK.

They were sent to prison after a trial in a State Security Court (DGM), but the European Court of Human Rights ruled in a previous decision that they had not been granted the right to fair trial and sentenced Turkey to pay compensation.

Following this earlier ruling, the Council of Ministers of the European Council asked Turkey to make necessary legal arrangements to pave way for retrial of the DEP deputies.

In an effort to bring Turkish laws into line with European Union standards, the government sent a package of legal reforms allowing the retrial of convicts in line with the European Court of Human Rights decisions to Parliament for approval earlier this week.

4. - The Christian Sience Monitor - "Turkey knocks at Europe's door":

Ankara's membership bid looms as the prickliest issue at the EU expansion summit, beginning today

ISTANBUL / 12 December 2002 / by Ilene R. Prusher

The broad avenues of Ilter Turkmen's neighborhood are lined with posh furniture stores, modern banks and gourmet eateries. At home, he has a nice collection of impressionist paintings. And he admits that his French is stronger than his eloquent English.

One might expect as much of a former foreign minister, but what the world might not expect is that his home is on the Asian side of Istanbul - the start of the Turkish mainland that many in Europe see as belonging to a continent, community, and culture not their own.

Whether Turkey belongs in Europe is the chief controversy surrounding a two-day summit, beginning today in Copenhagen, on the European Union's expansion. The Turkish question is forcing Europe to decide where its boundaries and purposes begin and end.

Turkey's new government has been making a vigorous push for an earlier and exact date for talks on joining the Union - questioning aloud how Western powers can spurn Turkey's bid to become a member of Europe's club yet expect Turkish cooperation in a potential war in neighboring Iraq.

Ten other countries, mostly former Eastern-bloc nations, are about to be given the keys to Europe. That leaves the Turks, original partners in NATO, suspicious that the reason their membership has been put on the slow track is that the banks of the Bosporus - the broad straits separating the European part of Turkey from the Near Eastern - are lined with mosques and not churches.

"Our ascension to the EU can show that Islam and Western values are not incompatible," says Mr. Turkmen. "It is an Islamic country which is trying to have a full-fledged democracy."

So far, Europe says that it has to try harder. Attempting to live up to the EU's political standards, Turkey outlawed the death penalty this summer and passed legislation allowing broadcasting and education in the Kurdish language, banned during years of separatist violence.

But European officials say that some of these changes have yet to be implemented, and that the country must make still others, expanding democratic freedoms and ensuring that civilian power prevails over the military, which removed an elected government as recently as five years ago.

That the disbanded government's heirs are now at the helm is an irony lost on no one. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), formed by the ambitious class of young politicians fleeing banned Islamic parties swept up enough votes in last month's election to form a rare single-party government. Many of the limited democratic policies set by Turkey's secular military establishment had been formed to keep such Islam-oriented politicians from power. While AKP predecessors scoffed at joining the EU and dismissed it is a "Christian club," AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing hard for a date for Turkey's inclusion.

"Now they understand that to improve their own freedom of movement, they need the West, and they need democracy more than anyone else," says Mr. Turkmen.

Mr. Erdogan himself is a symbol of Turkey's internal tug-of-war between democracy and devlet - a Turkish term for a state that also encompasses its formidable security and military forces. He was banned from serving as prime minister, due partly to a sedition conviction.

Despite this, Erdogan is being received all over Europe - and in Washington by President Bush - as though he, and not his deputy, Abdullah Gul, were prime minister. Earlier this week, Erdogan accused Europe of having a double standard when it comes to Turkey.

Rusen Cakir, a veteran journalist who covers the country's Islamic movement, says that other than religion, Turks cannot see a compelling reason why they should be left out, when countries such as Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia and Lithuania are being ushered in.

"The religious and cultural issue is the leading issue," Mr. Cakir says. "In the Western mind, before there was political Islam, the Muslim was always the 'other.' "

European officials have tried to deflect the focus from religious differences. But former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing raised Turkish suspicions when he told a French newspaper that Turkey was not a European country and that inviting it into the EU would mean "the end of Europe." He pointed out that 95 percent of Turkey's land mass lies in Asia.

"This really borders on orientalism, if not racism," says Ali Carkoglu, research director for the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation.

European officials say Copenhagen's decision will hinge on proof of more change in Turkey. "There are a number of criteria which have not been fully met," says Luigi Narbone, a political officer with the European delegation to Turkey in Ankara. "In freedom of association and freedom of expression, the fulfillment of priorities in our opinion has only been partial."

The AK Party has just introduced a package of legislation of reforms, aimed at stopping torture and loosening restrictions on speech. The new parliament has also began the process of revoking a law that prevents anyone with a criminal record from serving in high office, paving the way for Erdogan to move into the prime minister's seat in two to three months.

But Turks complain that other countries, such as Spain and Greece, were let in without having to jump through so many hoops first. "Europe used the carrot of membership as a pull factor" to make social and economic reforms, says Mr. Carkoglu.

The Turks were first offered the prospect of membership in 1963, when most of the current inductees were still behind the Iron Curtain. Turkey feels the rewards for its loyalty to democratic, free-market Europe ought to be greater. Otherwise, Erdogan has said, "Turkey might have to rethink its path" - including possibly its NATO membership.

Whether Turkey gets a conditional promise to review its bid in 2004 or 2005, or a firmer commitment may not seem crucial in Brussels.

But Turkey worries that by 2004, the 10 newcomers will add to the number of member countries deciding on Turkey's accession - even one European parliament's veto could keep Turkey out.

"When those countries become members, they might reject Turkey from the point of view of competitiveness," says Professor Dogan Kargul, an Istanbul University economist. He says Europe sees Turkey as "some kind of Middle Eastern country ... waiting to collect our benefits from the rich countries."

5. - The Daily Star (Bangladesh) - "Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- the new prime minister of Turkey?":

12 December 2002 / by Arshad-uz Zaman*

Among the Turkish public there is consensus that the voters voted for Recep Tayiip Erdogan. They would like to see him as Prime Minister. He is a charismatic leader and a fiery orator. He is, however, untested in administration. The expectations of the Turkish masses are high. The economic realities are harsh. He has to prove if after winning elections he can run the administration efficiently.

The Turkish Political scene has been full of twists and turns. The latest is that the door appears to have opened for the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take his rightful seat of Prime Minister of Turkey.

General Elections were held in Turkey on 3 November last, confounding all pollsters the Turkish voters gave an overwhelming vote -- in fact more than two thirds seats -- to the party of Erdogan campaigned energetically and trounced his opponents. Twenty-three parties fought the elections and two could enter the Parliament -- AKP and the People's Republican Party (CHP), led by Deniz Baykal. The CHP, the oldest party founded by the founder of modern Turkey Mustafa Kemal AtaTurk, had the humiliation to remain outside the Parliament for the first time in its 80-year history. The three coalition partners, led by charismatic leader Bulent Ecevit had an ignominious defeat and were literally buried by the voters. The Opposition led by the lady former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller also failed to enter the Parliament by a whisker. In Turkey in order to enter the Parliament a party must have a minimum of 10 per cent votes countrywide. All the parties except AKP and CHP failed to cross this barrier.

An independent candidate need not worry about the barrier. He can fight election from any constituency and if he has a majority, can win a seat. Nearly half a dozen candidates won as independent. The most colourful of them is Fadhil Akgunduz. He is from Siirt in Eastern Turkey and has been absconding in Germany because of conviction in an assortment of charges including fraud. He fought elections from his hideout in Germany and campaigned through telephone and won convincingly beating half a dozen candidates including a Kurdish candidate, who won nearly 50 per cent of votes but lost because of the 10 per cent barrier. On his election victory Akgunduz returned triumphantly back to Turkey and could not be arrested because of Parliamentary immunity. Indeed Baykal, the CHP leader, has a one point agenda -- removal from the statute books immunity of parliamentarians. He has been insisting that because of parliamentary immunity corruption is rampant within the National Assembly. Akgunduz has taken oath from the Speaker and has been sitting within the Assembly.

The other day, like a bolt from the blue, the Chief Election Commissioner cancelled the elections in Siirt and declared the seat vacant. This was a sequel to a complaint that there was tampering of ballot boxes in Siirt. Why the election commission took one whole month to decide on this issue is a mystery that cannot be solved.

Following his massive election victory. Erdogan has been unable to become Prime Minister because he could not fight the elections due of a legal bar. Since one must be on MP in order to be elected leader of the house, Erdogan had to nominate his deputy Abdullah Gul, who has been appointed Prime Minister by the President of the Republic Ahmet Necdet Sezer. Gul has presented his Cabinet to the President and has received endorsewment from the National Assembly. He has been functioning as Prime Minister. Erdogan has spent the month flying to at least two European capitals a day meeting the top leaders of those countries and has seen red carpet rolled in front of him although technically he is only the President of his party, AKP.

Turkey has mounted an all out campaign with 12 December as the target for membership of the European Union (EU). On 12 December EU Summit will take place in Copenhagen and Turkey has pulled out all stops to obtain a declaration through which she will obtain a firm date for commencement of negotiations in view of her membership of this powerful body. This 15-nation Union is due to be expanded in Copenhagen to 25. The EU, among other criteria for membership, has been pushing hard for removal of Turkish troops from the divided island Cyprus. Cyprus is due to be included as member of the EU on 12 December.

The vacancy caused in Siirt will have to be filed by the beginning of February. According to constitutional experts the vacancy can be filled by the two parties who crossed the barrage in the last elections, namely AKP and CHP. Probably an independent candidate can join the fray although it is highly unlikely that it will be Akgunduz. He may look for sanctuary abroad.

Thus from all accounts it appears that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be the AKP candidate. The Constitution will have to be amended and this will be no problem since AKP alone has more than two thirds majority. As a gesture of magnanimity Deniz Baykal of CHP has declared that he was prepared to amend the constitution 'immediately'.

Sensing the shape of things to come the longtime ally of Turkey, USA has invited Erdogan to visit Washington. There is speculation that the USA might put on hold indefinitely its invitation to current Prime Minister Abdullah Gul.

Among the Turkish public there is consensus that the voters voted for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They would like to see him as Prime Minister. He is a charismatic leader and a fiery orator. He is, however, untested in administration. The expectations of the Turkish masses are high. The economic realities are harsh. He has to prove if after winning elections he can run the administration efficiently.

*Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador

6. - The Daily Star (Lebanon) - "Northern Iraq on the boil":

Kurds’ struggle with Islamists aggravates tensions. As a war against Iraq looms, region’s players are jockeying for position

12 December 2002 / by Ed Blanche

The recent surge of fighting in northern Iraq between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a key component of the Bush administration’s campaign against Saddam Hussein, and Ansar al-Islam (Supporters of Islam), reputedly an ally of Osama bin Laden, may be an opening skirmish in the anticipated US attack on Iraq.

But the clashes between these two groups in a highly volatile region where the geostrategic interests of all the key regional powers Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria intersect threaten to complicate the Americans’ efforts to stitch together some sort of coalition before the Bush administration goes gunning for Saddam.

The actions of Turkey, Iran and Syria in the coming weeks could impact significantly on US plans. None of the three wants to see the others expand their control of this region, but it seems increasingly likely that they will seek to do so when the Americans launch their invasion of Iraq. Whether this involves military or political action, it is bound to have a destabilizing effect.

That is the last thing the Bush administration wants, but it may not be able to prevent it. The fighting between the PUK, which has close ties with Iran, and Ansar al-Islam could well be the first shots in the struggle for control of northern Iraq.

The flurry of diplomatic activity by PUK leader Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani, who heads the other main Iraqi Kurdish faction, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), with Ankara, Damascus and Tehran in recent days underlines the delicacy of the situation. So too did the weekend visit to the region by two ranking US senators, Joseph Biden, the Delaware Democrat who is outgoing chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and Chuck Hagel, a Nebraska Republican who sits on the same panel.

They addressed the Kurdish legislature in Irbil, insisting that their trip, the highest-level US visit to the Kurds’ autonomous region established under Allied protection after the 1991 Gulf War, was a “fact-finding mission.” But it clearly bolstered Kurdish leaders at a time when the Americans are seeking the support of Kurdish guerrillas, who number some 70,000, in their drive to topple Saddam.

The Americans claim that Ansar al-Islam, whose members adhere to an extreme form of the Sunni Wahhabite branch of Islam, is part of Al-Qaeda. Whether that is true or not, the PUK has found it convenient in its negotiations with the Americans. Nor is it clear whether Ansar has links to Saddam, as the Americans insist, the better to justify their plans to get rid of him, while providing no solid evidence. The remote, mountainous region has always been the haunt of guerrillas, brigands and smugglers.

The whole issue of Kurdistan is deeply troubling to Turkey, whose support is vital for the Bush administration. It fears the Americans will make a deal with the Iraqi Kurds to give them independence once Saddam is no more. That is anathema to Ankara, which spent 15 blood-soaked years crushing its own Kurdish separatists. It has fought to contain Kurdish nationalism while suppressing Islamic fundamentalism, and the emergence of Ansar al-Islam over the last year or so has injected a dangerous new element into an explosive equation.

The new government in Ankara is dominated by moderate Islamists, but it remains unclear what its policies are, and how much tolerance it will be shown by Turkey’s generals, the real power in the country. They forced the collapse of an earlier Islamist-led government in what was a military coup in all but name.

The Turks also have to keep a close eye on Iran. It too has a restive Kurdish minority whose separatist aspirations were crushed in the 1980s during the Khomeini era. It may be more than just coincidence that amid the revived aspirations of independence among Iraqi Kurds the divisional commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Sanandaj, a mainly Kurdish town in western Iran, was assassinated in October by gunmen suspected of belonging to the leftist Komala, one of the two main Kurdish groups active in Iran. They have been largely quiescent for years.

Last month, Iranian authorities refused to allow Kurdish legislators to attend the regional Parliament convened by the PUK and the KDP in northern Iraq to stake a claim for autonomy from Baghdad once Saddam had been removed. A Foreign Ministry spokesman in Tehran said an Iranian Kurdish presence at the gathering “could be taken as interference in Iraq’s internal affairs.” Iran has emphasized the territorial integrity of Iraq and since the developments in northern Iraq are to a large extent linked with American regional policies, any attendance by Iranian deputies would be interpreted as taking sides with such policies.”

Ansar al-Islam controls a mountain stronghold overlooking the town of Halabja, where in March 1988 chemical attacks by Saddam’s forces killed 5,000 men, women and children. It comprises of a cluster of villages near the border with Iran, which is playing a complex game along the frontier and is clearly striving to maximize its position in the event of war.

Its relationship with Ansar al-Islam is murky. Some senior officials in the PUK, which has relied on support from Tehran in the past, believe that hard-line elements in Iran have given the Islamic guerrillas access to weapons and allowed them to move back and forth across the border. That may have stopped when the US began taking an interest in Ansar, with US and British intelligence conducting surveillance missions along the border, which makes the Iranians extremely uneasy as they see US forces moving into Central Asia, Afghanistan and elsewhere on their periphery.

The Iranians oppose any US invasion of Iraq, although they seem to be seeking to keep a foot in both camps by allowing anti-Saddam Iraqi militants to participate in opposition discussions with Washington.

But the unwelcome attention given to the region, along with repeated US allegations that Iran was aiding Al-Qaeda and concern that Bush seeks “regime change” in Tehran as well, apparently prompted the Iranians to deny entry to Ansar’s reputed leader, Mullah Krekar real name Fateh Najmeddin Faraj in September when he arrived from Norway. Tehran put him on a plane bound for the Netherlands, then tipped off Dutch authorities that Krekar, an Iraqi Kurdish preacher who has lived in Norway since 1991, was heading their way. The intention seems to have been to distance the Iranian government from the Islamic group.

Krekar was arrested when he arrived in Amsterdam on Sept. 12. He remains in custody and reportedly has been questioned by FBI agents. Jordan has requested his extradition on charges of drug smuggling, but there are suspicions that these were trumped up so that US intelligence could get to question Krekar in a country where interrogations are harsher than those permitted in Western Europe.

The Turks have threatened to seize northern Iraq, including Kurdistan and the oil fields around Kirkuk and Mosul, if it looks like Iraqi Kurds intend to declare the region an independent state. Tehran does not want to see the Turks move south, taking control of the strategic region and extending their border with the Islamic Republic.

US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, a leading hawk in the administration, cautioned Turkey during a visit to Ankara on Dec. 5 not to take unilateral action in northern Iraq during a US-led attack, but clearly Turkey’s plans complicate US efforts to secure the Kurds’ support.

The Turks may simply be maneuvering for increased US aid as a reward for their support. But Ankara is reported to have drawn up plans to send some 10,000 troops as much as 100 kilometers into northern Iraq if war erupts, ostensibly to block any mass influx of refugees. Amid the intensified Turkish military activity along the border, Turkish Kurds of the outlawed Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK) formerly known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have reportedly deployed man-portable surface-to-air missiles in the Harkuk and Kandil mountains on the border.

There have been reports in recent weeks that Iran has also deployed large numbers of troops along its border with northeastern Iraq, with Tehran echoing Ankara’s explanation of stemming any refugee flood.

Since 1995, Iran and Syria, which also shares a border with northern Iraq, have tolerated several large Turkish incursions into the region to battle the PKK. But the latest Turkish deployment would seem to have more to do with blocking any Kurdish attempt to declare the region an independent entity, which would undermine Syrian influence in the region, than keeping out refugees.

With this vital corner of the world gripped by mounting tension, it would make sense for the PUK, possibly supported by US Special Forces teams which have been infiltrated into Iraqi Kurdistan in recent weeks, to eliminate Ansar al-Islam, believed to number around 500-650 guerrillas, before any US invasion, particularly as Islamic fighters are reported to have crude chemical weapons.

It is thus likely that the PUK will intensify its efforts to wipe out Ansar al-Islam in the coming weeks, to prevent any attack on their flank if they are called upon to move against Saddam.

Iran’s role in this murky affair remains unclear, but it has for years been active in the border region, and even had intelligence officers in northern Iraq in 1994-96 when the US Central Intelligence Agency was active there plotting disastrously unsuccessfully with the Kurds and other Iraqi dissidents to overthrow Saddam.

The PUK’s links with Tehran deteriorated somewhat once Ansar al-Islam became a problem a year ago after US forces dismantled Al-Qaeda and the Taleban in Afghanistan post-Sept. 11. This seems to have stemmed largely from a US offer to back Talabani with air strikes against Ansar al-Islam. The prospect of that was too close to the bone for Tehran, given Ansar’s proximity to the border, and Talabani, possibly at Tehran’s urging, persuaded the Americans to let the PUK handle the Islamic group.

The PUK says Tehran is now promising to help it eliminate Ansar. One way would be to allow the PUK to cross into Iran and take the well-fortified Islamic guerrillas from the rear. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but getting rid of the Islamic guerrillas will only remove part of the problem that is boiling up in northern Iraq.