07. August 2002

4. "Turkish reforms and the EU", Elmar Brok, the President of the Foreign Relations Committee of the European Parliament, commenting on the passing of the reform package in the Turkish parliament few days ago, said that by passing the laws in the parliament, Turkey had come a long way. At the same time he emphasised the fact that the Copenhagen political criteria had not still fully been met.

5. "Long-Buried Land Mines Still Taking a Toll on Kurds", Iraq: Groups working to clear war zones fear another invasion could reverse hard-won gains.

6. "Turkey denies reported deal with Russia to block Kurdish state in northern Iraq", Turkey's foreign minister on Tuesday strongly denied a newspaper report that Turkey and Russia have secretly agreed to block the formation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq if the United States moves to oust Saddam Hussein.

7. "Turkish Secularists See Red Over Islamists' Rise", the republic's founder rejected Muslim traditions. Now, as religious parties gain strength, the military guards his legacy.

8. "A Moment of Decision for Iraq's Kurds", in northern Iraq, a de facto state has been created which marks the longest period of self-government in Kurdish history. Is Washington's threatened war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq a historic opportunity for the Kurds to consolidate what they have already achieved, or does it harbour a danger of their losing everything again?

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Dear reader,

Due to the holiday time our "Flash Bulletin" will not be forwarded to email addresses from August 1, 2002 until August 25, 2002. It can be viewed, however, right here in the internet at www.flash-bulletin.de as usual.

the staff

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1. - AFP - "Rights group hails Turkish reforms but laments fate of jailed Kurdish MPs":

ANKARA / August 07, 2002

An international human rights group welcomed Wednesday the recent democratization drive in Turkey but said it was disappointed the reforms had not addressed the plight of former Kurdish deputies in Turkish jails.
In a move to boost Turkey's bid to join the European Union, the parliament passed Saturday a set of sweeping human right reforms, including the abolition of the death penalty in peace time and the legalization of broadcasts and courses in the language of the Kurdish minority.
"We warmly welcome the courageous and principled measures this law contains," US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a statement.
"However, the reform deliberately foreclosed legal challenge by Turkey's longest-serving political prisoners -- Kurdish former parliamentary deputies Leyla Zana, Hatip Dicle, Orhan Dogan and Selim Sadak -- whose unfair trial has been condemned by the European Court of Human Rights," HRW said.
The four have been serving 15-year sentences since 1994 for aiding armed Kurdish rebels seeking self-rule in mainly Kurdish southeast Turkey.
HRW described the abolition of the death penalty as "truly significant" and the endorsement of Kurdish freedoms as "such a dramatic departure from previous policy that it could remove the taboo on minority languages and effect real change".
The group said it now expected the Turkish authorities to drop charges against dozens of Kurds who demanded education in Kurdish.

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2. - Dow Jones Newswires - "Turkey's Bid For EU Membership Threatened By German Veto":

LONDON / August 06, 2002 / by Paul Hannon

Turkey's hopes of starting membership negotiations with the European Union appear likely to suffer a setback when German voters go to the polls in September.

Turkey's parliament Saturday passed a package of measures designed to meet E.U. requirements, including abolishing the death penalty and granting minority Kurds the right to teach and broadcast in their own language.
Turkish lawmakers, facing their own elections Nov. 3, rushed through the package in an effort to persuade E.U. leaders to set a date for the beginning of formal talks when they meet in Copenhagen in December.
If E.U. leaders are to respond as Turks hope, much will depend on the German poll. That's because the frontrunner to become the country's next chancellor has declared his opposition to Turkish membership.
"Europe cannot end on the Turkish-Iraqi border," said Edmund Stoiber during a visit to London in May. His Christian Democrats have a substantial lead over their main Social Democrat rivals in recent opinion polls, and he is likely to be the next chancellor, albeit at the head of a coalition government.
Talks with Turkey technically require the unanimous approval of E.U. members, but certainly no decision to proceed would be made without approval from Germany, the Union's largest member.
"In the end it has to be a consensus decision," said Marco Annunziato, chief economist for Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Deutsche Bank. "If Stoiber comes into power, one of the key European countries will be opposed".

Backlash Feared

Turkey first applied for membership of the bloc in 1963, and has been kept in the anteroom ever since. There are major obstacles to the country's membership, and it clearly doesn't meet the political or economic criteria for new members set out by E.U. leaders in 1993, known as the Copenhagen criteria. But this isn't why Stoiber is against Turkey joining.
Rather, he thinks it would set a precedent for membership applications from Morocco and Tunisia, countries whose populations are also predominantly Muslim. In his view, "whoever wants that endangers the cohesion of Europe."
Stoiber's comments were bad news for Turkey's membership hopes, as was the almost total silence with which they were met by other E.U. political leaders. None strongly criticized Stoiber's stance, nor publicly reconfirmed their support for setting a timetable for talks.
Indeed, with the strong performance of the far right in a number of E.U. elections this year, the tide of popular sentiment appears to be moving against Turkish membership.
That ambivalence is reflected in a statement by the E.U. Commission Monday, which welcomed the package of reforms passed over the weekend but said nothing about setting a date for talks to start.
It said the Commission will make a full assessment of the package in its annual review of Turkey's progress towards membership to be published in October, and added that "much will depend on its practical implementation."
The tone of the statement was heavily self-congratulatory, with Commissioner for Enlargement Guenther Verheugen noting that the E.U.'s position was beginning to pay off, though he made no reference to any future reward for Turkish constitutional reforms. A clear E.U. talks timetable would make the country more attractive to foreign investors and thus help stabilize its volatile economy, which has fallen prey to a series of financial crises over the past decade.
As long as Turkey continues to aim for E.U. membership and pursues economic reforms accordingly, the absence of a clear timetable may not do too much damage. But the German elections could lead to a Turkish backlash against the E.U. and its reform demands.

By Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9491; paul.hannon@dowjones.com

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3. - Ozgur Politika - "South Kurdistan under Turkish hegemony":

August, 06/2002 / translated by Robin Kurd - KurdishMedia.com

While Turkey's role in an attack on Iraq is being discussed, sources in south Kurdistan have revealed that Turkey already has great influence and control of in the area.

The discussion about Turkey's role in an attack on Iraq reached another level when Paul Wolfowitz from the American Ministry of Defence arrived in Turkey and illuminated the issue of Turkey's influence in the south. While the discussion continues, the question of whether Turkey will invade south Kurdistan or not comes up to one's mind.

When one closely examines Turkey's activities in the area, it becomes clear that there already is an "invasion" in place. Kurdish sources in the area argue that south Kurdistan is, in some ways, already under the control of Turkey.

The invasion started in 1991

Regional sources reveal that the Turkish influence in the south started after the Gulf War in 1991, with the collaboration between the KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and Turkey. Today the influence is much stronger, in fact, it is even institutionalised.

Currently, due to problems between the KDP and Turkey, PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) has replaced KDP's role in the area. In March, Turkish intelligence units prepared a report, which was sent to both civil and military circles and raised the tension in the area. The report contained the information that in the KDP area, the Kurdish flag was being used everywhere, Kurdish songs were being taught to children and that documents used by the KDP contained the word "Kurdistan".

Since March, Turkey has stopped its diesel trade with the KDP and in April, it confiscated 100 million dollars from the KDP. Turkey has also decreased
the flow of people in the Habur border gate to a minimum.

Attempts to legitimise the invasion

In parallel to the Turkish stance mentioned earlier, in April, Necirvan Barzani, president of the KDP administration, met Turkish military officials in Silopi and on the way there he was stooped and taken out of his car by JITEM* commandos and had to undergo a humiliating search. This tension was also reflected in Mesud Barzani's travels abroad.

Barzani was invited in May to discuss the attack on Iraq in meetings both in Europe and the U.S. As Barzani was not allowed to leave for Europe from Turkey, despite the fact that he had been given a diplomatic passport in 1992, he had to leave from Syria instead.

On the 25th of May, 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with KADEK guerrillas during an operation in the Metina area secretly supported by the KPD. After the casualties, Turkey accused the KDP for not actively supporting the Turkish forces. On the 26th of June, with the manipulation of Turkmen militants by Turkey, a bomb was planted in the garden of a restaurant called Brusk in Hewler, resulting 20 civilians being injured.

The reason why Turkey has targeted its old ally the KDP to this extent is that Turkey has come to see the KDP as a threat to its national interests. It is also a way of legitimising and getting support from the people for an active invasion of the south, in parallel with the invasion of Iraq, following Turkey's arguments that a Kurdish state is being created.

Turkey is in more control than regional forces

Even though Turkey has kept the KDP at arms length, during the last ten years, it has been to a great extend able to organise in the south.

Despite the fact that the KDP is in control of the Behdinan area, Turkey has organised enough there to even influence the taking down of Kurdish flags to putting up security blockades on roads. Turkey's military-intelligence presence in Behdinan reveals for us an important picture:

- Between 10-15,000 highly trained soldiers

- 150 tanks controlling and area from Zaxo, Sheladize to Kani Masi

- MIT (Turkish Intelligence Organisation) headquarters in Dohuk, Zaxo, Bamerni, Amediye, Diana and Hewler

- Special intelligence units with the latest intelligence technology and satellite system in ten points in Behdinan area

- Iraqi Turcoman National Front offices in main centres of south Kurdistan

- More than 2000 Turcoman agents and several secret operation units specially
trained by MIT

- PMF Peace Observation Force offices under the influence of Turkey

Open invitation from the Soran area

The situation in the Soran area controlled by the PUK is clearer. The leader of the PUK, Jelal Talabani, had already invited the Turkish army. Regional sources have noted that, Talabani's stance towards the issue from an economical and power/balance point of view, his weakness in the political arena, have left the invasion doors open.

Thus, in the Soran area, Turkish and Turcoman influence has become stronger than the PUK one. Kurdish sources' evaluation of the situation in the area is as follows: "The fact that the Turkish Republic has entered an operation like this which they put a lot of emphasis on, shows that all their wishes regarding the conditions in the area have been fulfilled. Turkey has joined the American operation against Iraq with a hope to discourage the creation of a Kurdish federation. At the moment, we do not know what kind of bargaining America undertook with Turkey on this issue. Actually small details are not enough to change the outcome. It is in a situation during an operation where America will need ground troops that the U.S will make concessions to Turkey on the Kurdish issue."

Soldiers are being transferred

Turkey has increased the movement of its soldiers towards the area within the frame of the American plan towards Iraq. Since 16th July, Turkey continues to transfer its soldiers to the area. Within the first three days of the transfer, more than 1000 soldiers, crossing the border, moved towards the Begova - Kani Masi line. Turkish units are being spotted in the Bamerne Airport, prepared by the U.S for the operation. American military advisors are also in the area. Around the Silopi, close to the border, the renovations of the old refugee camps continue. At the same time, with this operation and PUK's collaboration, KADEK forces are also targeted.

* Turkish special commandos, responsible for the death and disappearance of thousands of Kurds [Translator's note]

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4. - KurdishMedia.com - "Turkish reforms and the EU":

August 05, 2002

Elmar Brok, the President of the Foreign Relations Committee of the European Parliament, commenting on the passing of the reform package in the Turkish parliament few days ago, said that by passing the laws in the parliament, Turkey had come a long way. At the same time he emphasised the fact that the Copenhagen political criteria had not still fully been met.

According to the website "European Union News", Brok in an interview with the BBC, said that the reform package that passed through the parliament were not enough for the EU to start the negotiations for membership.

Brok said, "[the reforms] are a step in the right direction and Turkey is now a serious candidate but Turkey has to realise that there are further step to be taken".

Pointing out the necessary steps, Brok noted, "Full democracy, the rule of law. The power of the military in politics. The partiality of the courts. One has to see how the reforms are implemented".

Obviously, the recent reforms, such as the abolishment of the death penalty and allowing the establishment of Kurdish language courses, are highly positive. But Turkish officials have been reluctant to challenge the role of the military, simply because it is a taboo, but also because the politicians themselves are "more monarchist than then the king", meaning many politicians and a large section of the population do not see the strong influence of the military in politics as a serious problem, preventing the development of democracy and a civil society in Turkey. In fact, many in Turkey would argue that the dominant role of the military is protecting democracy from "threats" such as Kurdish nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism". Buy playing these cards the Turkish military have managed to control Turkish politics and captured it in a narrow Kemalist/nationalist frame through out the history of the Turkish Republic.

In the current euphoria in Turkey, as the reforms were passed in the parliament, due to lack of information and knowledge about the EU in general and the political criteria necessary for full membership in particular, many in Turkey think that they will become full members of the EU and become rich or live with their relatives in Germany within few years. Still, many have not understood that the EU will never accept today's semi-democratic military Turkey. The EU might turn a blind eye to Turkey as long as it is not a member, in fact the EU has already secured quite strong trade relations with Turkey. The EU does not need Turkey, but Turkey needs the EU.

As you would suspect, comments like Elmar Brok's, that there is more to be done, will not be welcomed in Turkey. Turkey wants to enter the EU without changing. Thus, each time it is told to change, in order to become a member of the EU, it tries to do so half-heartedly because the changes in question undermine the military oligarchy and the rotten system it is built upon.

Thus, unless Turkey really questions itself and does what is necessary to reach its national goal, that of joining the "civilised world", it will remain a semi-military-democracy, a launching pad for Western powers, and in the Turkish imagination "a role model for the Middle-East".

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5. - The Los Angeles Times - "Long-Buried Land Mines Still Taking a Toll on Kurds":

Iraq: Groups working to clear war zones fear another invasion could reverse hard-won gains.

DIYANAH, Iraq / by Amberin Zaman / August 05, 2002

The temptation to kick around an empty tin can--why is it so irresistible? That is the question 13-year-old Hawkar Mostafa continues to ask himself as he sits in a wheelchair, his right leg amputated at the knee.

Hawkar lost his leg in late April after setting off what he discovered--too late--was a land mine.

"I was gathering herbs with my friends in the mountains when I saw this rusty old can and kicked it," recalled the freckled youth, mustering a wry grin. "Nothing happened, and I kicked it again, and the next thing I knew I was flying in the air."

Hawkar, who lives in this remote mountain town bordering Iran, is among scores of Iraqi Kurds injured every year in land mine accidents in the Kurdish-controlled north, a region that is counted among the world's grimmest war zones.

"Iraqi Kurdistan is easily one of the riskiest areas in terms of unexploded land mines and military ordnance," said Michael Parker of the Mines Advisory Group, a British nongovernmental organization that specializes in mine-clearing operations in various countries.

The group has demarcated about 230 square miles of mined territory and destroyed 85,000 land mines--mainly along the Iranian border--in the decade since it began clearance work in northern Iraq.

Between 5 million and 10 million land mines are thought to be still buried under the flower-carpeted mountains near the border with Iran, Parker said. The majority are believed to have been planted during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq that ended in 1988.

Kurdish rebels who until three years ago fought an insurgency against Turkey's army are also known to have laid thousands of mines along the Turkish-Iraqi border.

As speculation grows about a U.S.-led military operation to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, many officials here voice concern that years of painstaking de-mining work will be seriously disrupted, if not undone.

"Land mines have long been a curse for the Kurdish people, and with each war the problem gets worse," said Sami Abdurrahman, a senior official in the self-styled Kurdish regional administration that has been running northern Iraq since the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

"Thousands of my people have been maimed, killed. We want this suffering to end."

Parker says his group concentrates chiefly on minefields that are close to villages, where the risk of accidents is greatest.

Up in the Balek Valley about 19 miles northeast of Diyanah, workers with the Mines Advisory Group, weighed down by heavy flak jackets and helmets, do much of their mine detection on impossibly steep, gravelly slopes.

"One slip of the foot, and boom, we could get killed," said Wirya Mustafa Ali, an Iraqi Kurd who supervises work in what locals call the Valley of Death.

The other danger is Hussein. The Iraqi leader has put a $50,000 bounty on the head of all Western aid workers in northern Iraq, saying they are spies for the United States.

The Kurdish enclave, protected by U.S. and British warplanes patrolling a "no-fly" zone, has remained outside Baghdad's control since the end of the Gulf War.

In 1998, a car bomb, thought to have been planted by Iraqi agents, went off outside the Mines Advisory Group's headquarters in the city of Sulaymaniyah.

Donor contributions have dwindled, Parker said, since the 1997 death of Britain's Princess Diana, who was a leading advocate for a worldwide ban on land mines.

"With Diana gone, land mines have slipped off the public's agenda," he said.

According to Iraqi Kurdish officials, the greatest challenge of all is creating awareness of the land mine problem among locals. One way is to train Islamic clerics, who can warn their congregations against collecting firewood and herbs in demarcated areas.

Booklets with pictures of different types of mines and shells published by Parker's group are handed out to schoolchildren and to those smuggling alcohol and tobacco between Iraq and Iran, who, with farmers, are considered the highest-risk groups.

Eighty families live in the village of Derbend in the Balek Valley, and at least one member of every family has suffered a mine injury.

Ismail Mustafa Nabi, a 49-year-old farmer, lost his legs when he set off a mine as he was planting wheat 18 years ago. His 14-year-old daughter, Safiya, lost an eye after picking up an unexploded mortar shell near their house last year.

Nabi, who has nine children, sounds undaunted.

"I am ready to give my daughter's hand [in marriage] for free, to anyone who offers me a second wife," he said. "Legs or no legs, life goes on, and I intend to enjoy every minute I have left."

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6. - Reuters - "Turkey denies reported deal with Russia to block Kurdish state

in northern Iraq":

ANKARA / August 06, 2002

Turkey's foreign minister on Tuesday strongly denied a newspaper report that Turkey and Russia have secretly agreed to block the formation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq if the United States moves to oust Saddam Hussein.

Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel denied the report published Tuesday by the liberal daily Radikal. Gurel made his remarks before departing for Jordan to discuss Turkey's concerns over a military operation against Iraq.
Radikal claimed that Turkey and Russia reached a secret deal over Iraq last week during a visit by Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Sultanov.
"It is natural that we might have discussed mutual concerns over regional matters but a secret agreement with Russia ... is out of question," Gurel told reporters at the airport.
Radikal reported that the Turkish foreign minister himself confirmed the deal but Gurel on Tuesday said that "secret deals," were not a tool of Turkish foreign policy.
"The newspaper report does not reflect the truth," Gurel said.
Turkey, a close U.S. ally, has repeatedly cautioned that any U.S. military action against Iraq could harm the fragile Turkish economy, which is recovering from its worst recession in decades.
Turkey borders Iraq and served as a staging point for attacks against Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War ( news - web sites).
Turkish military leaders have reportedly warned Washington that an attack could lead Kurds in northern Iraq to declare a separate state, which could encourage Turkey's own Kurds.
Russia also opposes a military strike on Iraq, but it says Baghdad must accept the return of United Nations ( news - web sites) weapons inspectors.
U.S. President George W. Bush ( news - web sites) has said he seeks to topple Saddam and recent reports from Washington have indicated that America is moving toward taking action.
At the heart of the dispute is Iraq's refusal to allow the return of U.N. inspectors charged with verifying that Iraq has eliminated its long range missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

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7. - The Los Angeles Times - "Turkish Secularists See Red Over Islamists' Rise":

The republic's founder rejected Muslim traditions. Now, as religious parties gain strength, the military guards his legacy.

ANKARA / by David Holley / August 06, 2002

Ayse Calmuk knows that some Turks view her head scarf as a red flag flaunting support for an Islamic political agenda. But she says wearing it is simply a religious duty.

"This is God's command," said the 31-year-old homemaker, who on a hot summer evening was bundled up in a black silk scarf, black jacket and loose cotton trousers. "My head scarf is not a political symbol. It has nothing to do with politics."

Feride Acar, a professor at Middle East Technical University here in the Turkish capital, doesn't buy that argument. And as Turkey heads toward elections in November that could bring a party with deep Islamic roots to power, clashing views over head scarves reflect a potentially dangerous split in society.

"In this country, sociologically speaking, the head covering is a symbol of violation of women's human rights. This is how many people understand it," Acar said.

"As a woman, if you are claiming that you are covering your head because this is part of your religion and it's part of your belief system, then that same belief system has other things that are supposed to be accepted by women too," Acar said. "That includes polygamy. That same belief system also includes unequal inheritance. It includes the right of the husband to physically punish the wife. All of these are gross violations of women's human rights."

Calmuk ridicules that notion

"I don't believe any of these issues--polygamy or unequal inheritance rights--are issues anymore in the modern world," she said. "People like me don't believe in them. It's wrong to associate them with Islam."

Still, the government's fear of the head scarf is great enough that students and public employees are banned from wearing it at schools and on the job. The ban, itself often criticized as a violation of women's rights, is just one small piece of a system enforced by the Turkish army that supporters say is designed to ensure that religious leaders can never take political power.

Modern Turkey was founded in 1923 on the Ottoman Empire's ruins by Kemal Ataturk. He had a secular, Europe-oriented vision that rejected what he considered a backward Muslim world. He forbade the traditional veil for women and fez for men, abolished polygamy and let girls go to school.

The military has guarded Turkey's secularism ever since, even forcing out the country's first democratically elected Islamist-led government in 1997.

Many analysts and politicians doubt that the army would allow the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party to take power if it won elections set for Nov. 3. The party is led by the charismatic former mayor of Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Polls show the party with 20% to 30% popular support, at least double that for its closest rivals.

In Turkey's system, only parties that win at least 10% of the vote are awarded parliamentary seats, so popularity at this level can bring a strong position in parliament, conceivably even a majority if most votes are split among a large number of parties.

There are widespread fears that post election conflict could erupt, pitting the military against Erdogan and other religion-oriented politicians. Such conflict would damage Turkey's democracy, its troubled economy and its hopes of joining the European Union. Although an open clash is far from inevitable, many say the risk exists.

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit declared recently that an Islamist electoral victory could trigger a crisis.

"There is speculation that Justice and Development will end up as the first party," Ecevit said in an interview on state-run television. "If that comes true, Turkey will be faced with questions over its regime." That was taken as a reference to the possibility of military intervention in some form.

"I do not want Erdogan's rights to be taken away from him or the party banned, but their true faces must be exposed," Ecevit added.

Party leaders strenuously deny that they want to impose Islamic rules on the government or society. Erdogan insists that he has never chosen the label "Islamist" and that he simply tries to be a good Muslim.

Those who think the party wants to impose an Islamic state "don't know us," said Abdullah Gul, its deputy leader.

"We believe that being a religious party, or establishing a religious state, is not rational and not good, and doesn't help anyone, not even religion," Gul said. "If you ask me individually, I try to be a good Muslim, and I want my family and children to follow that way. But I don't want to interfere in public life."

Views vary widely as to whether such statements can be trusted.

"I do acknowledge that there's a threat of radical Islam in this country, people who would like to see Turkey run as an Islamic state," said Husnu Ondul, president of the Human Rights Assn. of Turkey. "But those people are not members of the Justice and Development Party. There may be a few people like that [in the party], but they're really marginal."

Few people believe that religion-based parties could succeed in imposing an Islamic political system even if they won elections and tried to do so.

Erdogan "can't form an Islamic state," said university student Fatih Budak, 21. "That's impossible, because there's strong opposition. There's us young people. There's the military. We won't allow him to do anything of that sort."

Efforts are already underway to undermine the Justice and Development Party, said Kemal Can, a political analyst in Istanbul, the country's largest city. "The coming three months will be a period during which the military will do everything possible to ensure they don't come to power," he said.

Can noted that legal action against Erdogan might well keep him off the ballot. He faces trial on charges of defrauding the state by fixing contracts and illegally transferring money into his personal account while he was Istanbul's mayor, from 1994 to 1998.

Erdogan was convicted in 1998 of inciting religious hatred for reciting a nationalist poem, even though the poem is taught in Turkish schools. A court recently ruled that the conviction bars him from being elected to parliament, but legal appeals continue.

"If it becomes clear that Erdogan is not eligible to run for parliament, that would be a huge blow to Justice and Development," Can said.

Still, Gul predicted that his party will win an outright majority in parliament and form a government smoothly. "Democracy will work," he said. "I don't see any reason for [military] intervention."

But Hasim Hasimi, a Kurdish member of parliament, predicted that the courts will keep Erdogan from running and that if his party nevertheless wins, the military won't allow it to form the next government, either alone or in a coalition with other parties.

"Turkey is still being governed by a constitution drawn up by the military in 1982 following their last coup," Hasimi said. "Although there've been a huge number of changes to that constitution, the spirit of the military dictatorship is still enshrined in it."

Turkey has been under direct military rule three times since 1960. Before withdrawing for the third time, in 1983, the generals wrote a constitution enhancing their power behind the scenes.

Though few people predict that the army will stage another coup, it has enormous influence over some political parties, the courts, the media and business associations.

The military exercises its power in part through the National Security Council, which is made up of top political and military leaders. In 1997, the generals used the council's monthly meetings to badger Necmettin Erbakan, the nation's first Islamist prime minister, into agreeing to curb Muslim religious schools and foundations. When his government balked, the commanders orchestrated a campaign by pro-secular business, labor and women's groups that forced Erbakan to resign.

The constitutional court banned his Welfare Party several months later and slapped him with a five-year political ban that expires early next year. His supporters in a successor party, Saadet, favor holding elections next spring, so that he can lead their effort.

Those fearful of state-imposed Islamic rules see Erdogan as the current leader of that cause. "I really hate him," said Ayhan Sarinalbant, a retired schoolteacher. "I think he's awful. Erbakan was dangerous, but this man is 1,000 times more dangerous. He has a lot more energy, and he's very clever."

But Ramazan Hoca, an Istanbul resident who runs a stand selling religious trinkets and music tapes, said Erdogan was a great mayor. The corruption charges against Erdogan "are completely illogical, absurd and stupid," he said. "Certain powers who fear for their own power are doing this. But the people know this. If all the legal obstacles are removed, he'll get enough votes to rule on his own."

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8. - Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Switzerland) - "A Moment of Decision for Iraq's Kurds":

August 06, 2002 / by Amalia van Gent / translated by Kurdish Observer

Northern Iraq Between Boom Times and Danger

In northern Iraq, a de facto state has been created which marks the longest period of self-government in Kurdish history. Is Washington's threatened war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq a historic opportunity for the Kurds to consolidate what they have already achieved, or does it harbour a danger of their losing everything again?
The Kurdish vice-premier in Erbil, Sami Abdul-Rahman, already clearly hears the drums of a new war in his homeland and he knows that a great deal is at stake. But he questions to what extent the Kurds' future depends on their own decisions. "We can neither start this war nor stop it," he remarks, emphasizing that the important thing is to secure his people's safety and rights. A changing of the guard in Baghdad, he emphasizes, must not be merely a matter of a change in personalities. The structures created by brutal dictators must be fundamentally altered and a democratic, pluralistic Iraq created. Abdul-Rahman leaves no doubt that, for the Kurds of northern Iraq, creation of an Arab-Kurdish "Federation of Iraq" is the price they are asking if they are to participate with the Americans in a new war against Saddam Hussein.

Cementing Autonomy

According to a draft constitution recent worked out by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), a post-Saddam Iraq would be divided into two federal regions: an Arab region, which would embrace central and southern Iraq, and a Kurdish region in the north. Each region would have its own constitution, its own parliament and its own president. The central government in Baghdad would continue to have control over the army and internal security and would be authorized to formulate foreign policy, conclude international treaties, draft the laws of the land and administer the nation's oil revenues. In essence, what Iraq's Kurds are calling for is actually a cementing of the present situation.
In the past 11 years, since the estimated 3.5 million Kurds have no longer been under Baghdad's control, a de facto state has been created in northern Iraq, the second such in the history of the Kurdish people. The "Republic of Mahabad" was created in Iran in 1946; it lasted for barely a year before falling victim to the start of the cold war. Iraqi Kurdistan today has its own flag, its own army and police (which will also be accepting female officers starting this summer). There are newspapers, television stations, and an elected parliament in which opposition parties such as the Communists and minorities such as the Assyrians and Turkmen are represented. Self-confident Kurdish academics work on their doctoral thesis at the universities of Dohuk and Suleimaniye. Instruction in the schools is in the Kurdish language, with Arabic taught only as a second language (or even a third, after English). And just as the portrait of Kemal Ataturk is to be seen everywhere in Turkey, so in Iraqi Kurdistan the portrait of Mullah Mustafa Barzani, "the father of the nation," hangs in every public building, every inn and school building.

The Trauma of Betrayal

Yet the KDP's draft constitution does deviate from the present situation in one significant respect: it assigns the oil-rich province of Kirkuk to the Kurdish region. In 1970, Abdul-Rahman negotiated with Saddam Hussein's people over Kurdish autonomy. He relates that, back then, the two delegations were able to reach agreement on most points of contention - except for Kirkuk. Finally, Saddam offered the Kurds half of Kirkuk Province, but Mustafa Barzani, calling Kirkuk "the heart of Kurdistan," refused Bagdad's offer. It was then that the Kurdish revolt broke out over Kirkuk's oil. The uprising ended in 1975 when, after Iran and Iraq had reached an agreement over the Shatt al-Arab, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger halted aid for the Kurdish movement and thus laid the groundwork for its devastating defeat. Some 300,000 people were forced to flee to Iran, and Sami Abdul-Rahman also went into exile with the aging Barzani.
Meanwhile, in Kurdistan, Saddam wiped out every trace of opposition. During the notorious "Operation Anfal" in the 1980s alone, an estimated 180,000 people lost their lives and 4,000 villages with more than 2,500 mosques and close to 100 Assyrian churches and monasteries were destroyed. Then, in 1988 in the town of Halabja, more than 5,000 people died violent deaths on a single day as a result of the massive use of chemical weapons by Saddam's forces. Like every Kurd, Sami Abdul-Rahman longs for the fall of the Baghdad ruler; to the Kurds, Saddam Hussein is the incarnation of evil and the memory of the period of his rule is a nightmare. Like most of his people, he too fears that the Kurds could once again become the plaything of international interests. The memory of 1975, or of 1991 - when President Bush Sr. called on the Kurds to revolt against Saddam, but then sat back passively while Iraqi tanks smashed Kurdish cities and forced more than a million Kurds to flee to the mountains of Turkey and Iran - these memories operate as a trauma in the collective Kurdish consciousness. And the trauma of betrayal determines the actions of the Kurdish elite to this day. "We have too much to lose," says political veteran Abdul-Rahman.

Erbil Transformed

The Kurds of northern Iraq have made the city of Erbil their capital. Today, it is a city in transition. Countless construction cranes and new buildings bear witness to lively activity. A gigantic mosque with its slender minarets is just being completed and is to be opened this summer. The streets of the city, as well as the four-lane highway leading to Salaheddin (headquarters of the KDP's powerful party apparatus), are filled with Land Cruisers, Mercedes and BMWs. In the "Four Candles Hotel," an Internet café offers undisturbed contact with the outside world.
Erbil has undergone an amazing transformation. Eleven years ago, it was a colorless city in which the streets were dominated by skeletons of bombed-out buildings, refugees and armed Peshmerga guerrillas. The sense of insecurity was ubiquitous, and grew even stronger in 1994, when a bloody internecine conflict broke out between the KDP and the second-largest Kurdish party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which split Iraqi Kurdistan into two regions. Since then, the south has been controlled by Talabani's PUK and the northwest by Barzani's KDP. The year 1998 brought a cease-fire between them, and now, according to Sami Abdul-Rahman, relations between the two parties are "warm."

Not the "Northern Alliance" of Iraq

From the barracks of a command unit in Salaheddin, "Defense Minister" Bruska Shawais can look down over the broad plain of Erbil all the way to the demarcation line with Iraq. He does not anticipate an American move against Saddam before November. The highly sensitive American instruments would not work well in the heat of an Iraqi summer, he says mischievously (the temperatures in Erbil and Baghdad these days are up around 50 degrees Celsius or about 120 degrees Fahrenheit).
Asked whether, in the event of a war against Saddam Hussein, the Kurds of northern Iraq would be willing to play a role similar to that of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, he waves the question aside. The differences between Iraq under Saddam and Afghanistan under the Taliban are too great, he says. Unlike Afghanistan, he continues, Iraq is a state with intact institutions, tightly organized and well trained armed forces, and oil reserves that are important to the entire region. And unlike the Northern Alliance, Shawais notes, Kurdish troops are battle-tested but poorly equipped. He is convinced that a new war would mean the end of the Baghdad dictator. Of greater concern to him is Iraq after Saddam Hussein. As if eager to stave off any alternative to a federalist solution, he notes that the draft constitution authored by the DKP has been accepted by the "Group of Four." This group is a combination of the two largest Kurdish parties, the KDP and the PUK, and the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the Teheran- based organization of Iraqi Shiites. Those three have been joined by the Movement of Iraqi National Agreement, headed by Ali Ayad al-Alawi, an Arab who used to work for the CIA. Many people today regard the Group of Four as the most credible opposition group in Iraq.

Turkish Reluctance

The thing that worries Shawais most, however, is the possible reactions of neighbouring countries in the event of a war. Turkey, Iran and Syria are watching developments in the region with mistrust, fearing that creation of a "Federation of Iraq" could inspire and encourage their own Kurdish minorities. Turkish hostility toward the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq is evident along the old trade road which runs from Baghdad through Kirkuk to the northern Iraqi city of Zacho and then via the border crossing at Habur into Turkey. There, hundreds of tank trucks loaded with oil are tightly packed into parking areas, constituting probably the biggest traffic jam in the Middle East. Since the start of this year Turkey has either kept the border crossing closed or has allowed only a fraction of normal traffic to pass through - which is intended as a warning that it can block the economy of northern Iraq if it chooses to do so.
According to press reports, in mid-July, when a high-ranking American delegation turned up in Ankara looking for support for a military move against Saddam, the Turkish leadership laid down a number of conditions: there must be no establishment of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq - that would be a casus belli for Turkey; even the creation of a federated Iraq along ethnic lines is unacceptable to Ankara; moreover, oil-rich Kirkuk must not come under Kurdish control, and finally, the Turkmen minority - Ankara's protégés in Iraq since 1991 - must be granted extensive rights.