12. August 2002

4. "8th Minister Leaves Turkish Government", Kemal Dervis quits as economic chief under pressure from the premier. His departure raises doubts about the nation's fiscal recovery.

5. "Turkey Schools Set to Teach Kurdish", a little more than a decade ago, speaking Kurdish was a crime in Turkey. Today, a handful of schools are preparing to teach the once-taboo tongue under reforms passed as part of Turkey's push to join the European Union.

6. "US allies leery of post-attack Iraq", support for an attack on Iraq continues to drag. European allies doubt US staying power in an invasion's aftermath.

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Dear reader,

Due to the holiday time our "Flash Bulletin" will not be forwarded to email addresses from August 1, 2002 until August 25, 2002. It can be viewed, however, right here in the internet at www.flash-bulletin.de as usual.

the staff

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1. - AFP - "Ocalan on the abolition of capital punishment in Turkey":

ROME / August 11, 2002

Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan, sentenced to death in 1999, hailed Turkey's abolition of capital punishment as the most important decision in its modern history, in an interview published Sunday.
"It means the end to a 5,000-year-old tradition in this region of the world -- that political enemies must be physically eliminated," Ocalan told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, also appealing to Turks and Kurds to live as brothers.
The abolition of the death penalty is "the most important decision in the 80 years of the Turkish republic," he said.
The amendment, which ends capital punishment in peacetime, was among the most controversial of a set of democracy reforms adopted by parliament on August 3 to boost the country's lagging bid to join the European Union.
"I welcome Turkey's decision as it will strengthen friendship as well as ties between peoples and cultures," he said, adding that the abolition would usher in a policy no longer based "on a frontal clash, but a modern policy based on compromises and accords among parties".
Ocalan, Turkey's public enemy number one, was sentenced to death in June 1999 for treason over the Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) 15-year armed campaign for Kurdish self-rule, but his execution was put on hold pending a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights.
His fate remains highly controversial in a nation traumatized by the loss of more than 36,000 lives, most of them PKK rebels, in the ethnic conflict.
He is being detained on an island in the Sea of Marmara and will remain behind bars until the end of his life with no chance of an amnesty.
The 54-year-old can also only be visited by his lawyers.
The interview was Ocalan's first since the abolition of capital punishment after La Repubblica journalist Marco Ansaldo, who has written a book about the rebel leader, filed written questions.
Ocalan said that Kurds "now have a major duty to fulfill, and they must not underestimate what has happened.
"They must respond to that decision (the abolition of capital punishment) and continue to work for democracy in peace and brotherhood."
He called on fellow Kurds to "talk to the most progressive elements in the country, under the roof of the Republic of Turkey.
"They must not feel any vengeance but rather brotherhood and union," he said.
Asked on the Kurds' position in the event of a US attack on Iraq which is home to a large Kurdish minority, Ocalan said that "Kurds will fight alongside democrats and will be for democracy".
"In Iraq, a democratic society is about to be born, current conditions are leading there rapidly," he said.

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2. - AFP - "Turkish nationalists again vow to fight death penalty reform":

ANKARA / August 10, 2002

The nationalist wing of Turkey's shaky government vowed Saturday to launch a legal challenge against the abolition of the death penalty in a renewed attack on reforms aimed at boosting the country's bid to join the European Union.
The far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) was the only group to vote against a set of far-reaching democracy reforms in parliament last week, which ended the death penalty in peace time and legalized one-time taboos such as courses and broadcasts in the language of the Kurdish minority.
"The MHP has decided to take the law abolishing the death penalty to the constitutional court," MHP leader Devlet Bahceli told a party meeting, without saying when and on what legal grounds the appeal would be made.
The reforms saved from the gallows Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan, who was on a death row for treason.
Bahceli said the reforms constituted "an award and an encouragement" for Ocalan and his outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has struggled for self-rule in the southeast in a bloody conflict that has claimed some 36,500 lives since 1984.
The nationalist leader, whose party is currently the biggest in parliament, also denounced the endorsement of Kurdish cultural freedoms as a move that would fan nationalist sentiment among the Kurds.
"Those reforms have prepared the ground for further (Kurdish) demands that will damage Turkey's social structure and national unity," Bahceli said.
He downplayed hopes that the reforms would boost Turkey's chances of winning a date by the end of the year for the start of accession talks with the EU, whose stance towards Turkey he described as "discriminatory and repulsive."
The MHP's opposition to key EU norms, which it usually brands as "impositions" and "blackmail," was at the core of a government crisis that broke out last month atop political tensions sparked by the ailing Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's failure to fully carry out his duties.
The crisis forced Ecevit to reluctantly bring elections forward from April 2004 to November 3.
The outcome of the polls is expected to have a determining effect on Turkey's bid to join the EU.
The emergence of a strong pro-Western government could improve chances that a date for the start of Turkey's accession talks will be set at the EU
Copenhagen summit in December when enlargement plans are to be outlined.

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3. - AFP - "Death toll hits 53 in Turkish prison hunger strike":

ANKARA / August 10, 2002

A hunger strike by Turkish inmates against controversial jail reforms claimed its 53th victim on Saturday as a woman prisoner died in an Ankara hospital, human rights activists said.
Fatma Bilgin, 30, died about a year after joining the hunger strike, a member of the Human Rights Association (IHD) told AFP.
The protestors have been fasting on a rotating basis, taking liquids with sugar and salt as well as vitamin supplements to prolong their lives.
Bilgin was serving a 12-year jail sentence for membership of the far-left underground Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C), which is seen as the mastermind of the protest.
The hunger strike was launched in October 2000 by hundreds of mainly extreme left-wing inmates against the introduction of high-security jails in which cells for one or three people replaced large dormitories housing dozens.
The protesters claim the cell system increases their isolation and leaves them more vulnerable to maltreatment.
The government has categorically ruled out a return to the dormitory system, arguing that it was the main reason behind frequent riots and hostage-taking incidents in Turkey's crowded and unruly jails.
Support for the strike has faded in the face of Ankara's tough stance and only about 30 inmates linked to the DHKP-C are currently fasting.
The Council of Europe last month acknowledged steps by Turkish authorities to ease the isolation of prisoners by allowing communal activities and open visits, but urged further measures to relax restrictions.
The death toll of the strike includes outside activists who joined the protest in solidarity with prisoners.
Apart from those who died from starvation, four prisoners burned themselves to death in support of the strike and another four people died last November in a police raid on an Istanbul house occupied by hunger strikers.

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4. - The Los Angeles Times - "8th Minister Leaves Turkish Government":

Kemal Dervis quits as economic chief under pressure from the premier. His departure raises doubts about the nation's fiscal recovery.

ISTANBUL / August 11, 2002

by Amberin Zaman

This country's highly influential economy minister, Kemal Dervis, resigned Saturday under pressure from beleaguered Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit.

The resignation prompted widespread concern among Western diplomats here that Dervis' departure will undermine a crucial economic recovery program supported by about $31 billion in international loans.

"Dervis is the program. He is the sole remaining shred of credibility in an otherwise dead government," said one Western diplomat, who requested anonymity.

Dervis, 52, was brought back from a position at the World Bank in Washington more than a year ago to oversee the recovery program crafted by the International Monetary Fund after Turkey plunged into its worst economic crisis since World War II.

The economy has shrunk by 10% over the last year, leaving about 2.2 million Turks unemployed.

Dervis, who is widely credited with averting the sort of economic meltdown suffered by Argentina, belongs to no political party. However, he is expected to run for parliament as the standard-bearer for a coalition of leftist and centrist parties that he is hoping to forge ahead of nationwide elections to be held Nov. 3.

The Princeton-trained economist had been facing mounting criticism for remaining in the Ecevit government while forging close links with a rival party set up last month by a former foreign minister, Ismail Cem. Ecevit is widely believed to have delivered his former protege an ultimatum to either sever ties with Cem or quit.

Cem is among seven other Cabinet ministers who have left Ecevit's government in a protracted political crisis that has paralyzed the nation in recent months and that prompted parliament to call for elections about 18 months ahead of schedule.

Ecevit chose a little-known lawmaker, Masum Turker, from his own Party of the Democratic Left to replace Dervis. The appointment was sent to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer for approval Saturday.

Dervis tried to resign last month but Sezer persuaded him to stay. Emrehan Halici, a lawmaker from Ecevit's party, stressed that Turkey's economic recovery program will continue.

"This program is not based on personalities. It is the program of the government and will be maintained with the same determination," Halici told private NTV television.

It remained unclear Saturday whether Dervis would join Cem, who says his party's main goal will be to secure Turkish membership in the European Union. This month, the national legislature approved a raft of reforms aimed at accelerating the country's acceptance into the European bloc. The measures, hailed by EU governments as a major step forward, included abolishing the death penalty and lifting bans on Kurdish-language education and broadcasts by the country's minority Kurdish population.

"Without Dervis, Cem has little chance of succeeding," Hasan Koni, a professor of political science at Ankara University in the capital, said in a telephone interview.

For his part, Dervis said Saturday only that he would pursue efforts to string the country's fractious left-wing and centrist parties into an alliance capable of challenging a right-wing party that Turkey's establishment accuses of secretly nurturing a pro-Islamic agenda. Polls forecast that group, the Justice and Development Party--led by Istanbul's former pro-Islamic mayor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan--winning the upcoming elections by a broad margin.

The prospect is deeply worrying to Turkey's powerful and strongly secular armed forces, who fear that Erdogan would steer the nation away from its pro-Western course. The Turkish military, which has seized power three times in the last four decades, played a pivotal role in unseating the republic's first Islamic-led government in 1997.

Turkey, the sole majority-Muslim member in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is counted among the United States' closest regional allies, a role that has been enhanced by its strong ties with Israel and more recently by its leadership of the international peacekeeping force in Afghanistan. Turkey could be expected to play a key role in any U.S.-led military operation to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Its cooperation would probably be assured if the staunchly pro-Western Dervis attained power.

A darling of Istanbul's highflying industrial elite, Dervis is also very popular among ordinary Turks because of his industriousness and probity, rare commodities in the country's scandal-spattered political class.

"With Dervis, what you see is what you get," said Zeynep Gogus, a prominent economic commentator who has interviewed Dervis several times since his return to Turkey. "He is a through-and-through idealist. His only concern is to serve the Turkish people."

But some analysts questioned whether Dervis can survive in the byzantine world of Turkish politics, not least because he has spent most of his professional life in the United States.

Koni, the political scientist, disagreed.

"The Turkish people are so fed up with the current set of politicians that they believe only someone coming from the West, from America, can solve their problems," he said. "That man is Kemal Dervis."

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5. - Associated Press - "Turkey Schools Set to Teach Kurdish":

August 10, 2002

A little more than a decade ago, speaking Kurdish was a crime in Turkey. Today, a handful of schools are preparing to teach the once-taboo tongue under reforms passed as part of Turkey's push to join the European Union.

The reforms, passed by last week by Parliament, are intended to improve the country's much-criticized human rights record and boost Turkey's chances of joining the EU. Teaching Kurdish in private language institutes was one of those reforms. Other reforms include allowing private TV and radio stations to broadcast in regional languages such as Kurdish.

The move was no small step for Turkey, which fought a 15-year war with separatist Kurdish guerillas that killed 37,000 people, mostly Kurds. The government had long said that Kurdish in schools would promote separatism and reward the rebels.

Days after the reforms passed, Nazif Ulgen, an ethnic Kurd businessman, applied for permission for his language institute to teach Kurdish. Ulgen says he sees legalization of the lessons as a way of closing a bitter chapter for Turkey.

``The courses would be a huge step for Turkey,'' Ulgen, 53, said this week. ``Turkey has passed the necessary human rights reforms for the EU... Now it's time to implement them.''

If his petition is approved by the Education Ministry, Ulgen says his institute will become one of the first to legally teach the language in Turkey's modern history - a radical break with the past in a country that until recently rounded up thousands of Kurds for demanding education in their mother tongue.

Turkey has touted the move as pushing the country a step closer to its dream of membership in the EU. Other European countries have welcomed the reforms, but are waiting to see if they are properly implemented.

According to some Turks, however, the reforms are problematic because they do not allow any of the nation's primary schools, high schools or universities to teach Kurdish.

``The measures were positive, necessary, but deficient. Kurds didn't get what they really want- education in their own language,'' said 21-year-old Avni Dal, a Kurd who was expelled from Istanbul University this winter for demanding optional Kurdish-language courses.

Thousands of people have been detained over the past year for submitting petitions demanding that government schools teach Kurdish. Eight of Dal's classmates were jailed for leading the petition campaign. Most of their trials are pending.

Human rights groups say that the change in the law is likely to have little impact on Kurds as long as classes are restricted to expensive, private language institutes.

``If there's no Kurdish education in state schools it means the ban (on Kurdish courses) is still in effect,'' said Dogan Genc, an official at Turkey's independent Human Rights Association.

Genc also warned that although teaching Kurdish is now legal, other laws could still keep Kurds from studying their language.

Turkey lifted a ban on speaking Kurdish in 1991 - a law that also freed up Kurdish-language music on the radio.

But authorities have nonetheless ordered radio stations off the air for broadcasting Kurdish music, saying the stations were part of a rebel campaign to spread the use of Kurdish.

Similar arguments could be used to close Kurdish-language institutes, Genc said.

``It's not enough to change one law. They have to change all the related laws too,'' he said.

About half of Turkey's 12 million Kurds live in the southeast, many of them in villages where most people speak only Kurdish.

Hasan Kaya of the Istanbul-based Kurdish Institute - the only research center in Turkey dedicated to Kurdish studies- is also concerned.

His three-room institute was closed for four months earlier this year for illegally teaching Kurdish courses- an accusation it denies. It is considering starting new courses, but is being cautious.

``After the reforms, we don't know what to do,'' Kaya said. ``There's a wall dividing the state from its people. Two bricks have fallen off the top, but the wall is still there.''

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6. - Christian Science Monitor - "US allies leery of post-attack Iraq":

Support for an attack on Iraq continues to drag. European allies doubt US staying power in an invasion's aftermath

WASHINGTON / August 12, 2002

by Howard LaFranchi

When war commenced in Afghanistan last October, President Bush said the United States was committed not just to routing terrorists, but to rebuilding a broken country so no international threat would rule there again.

But today, US military forces – off fighting the war in the mountains against Al Qaeda – are not an active part of the international security force trying to support a shaky interim government in the capital of Kabul. And promised roads to reknit the Afghan fabric aren't being built, regional warlords are gaining strength, and signs of schisms within the new government grow by the day.

These so-called "day-after" issues go a long way in explaining why US allies remain leery of an American attack on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. While there is no love for the tyrant of Baghdad in either European or Arab capitals, there is plenty of fretting that the US will take out Hussein without preparing much for the aftermath – or even sticking around for it.

"The Europeans are resigned to the idea that if the Americans are committed to going into Iraq they will do it," says Dominique Moïsi, of the French Institute on Foreign Relations (IFRI) in Paris. "But the experience in Afghanistan only reinforces the doubts about American stamina for a longstanding commitment, and leaves European leaders asking, 'Are we going to once again be the cleaning lady of an American intervention?'"

The US doesn't really need partners to act militarily, but it wants them to help in postwar rebuilding and relations with the Muslim world. Republicans as much as Democrats are reminding Bush of this.

Last week House majority leader Dick Armey, a Texas Republican and faithful Bush ally, warned that the US "will not have the support of other nation states" if it launches an "unprovoked attack."

Indeed, Vice President Dick Cheney, in conversations Saturday with Iraqi opposition leaders, stressed a US commitment to democratic rule post-Hussein – implying support for sweeping, long-term leadership change, not just a change-of-guard coup.

As early as last February, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the US was preparing to take down Hussein's regime "on its own" if necessary. Still, a military operation is likely to include British forces, and access to NATO bases in Turkey and other staging facilities in Qatar, and Kurd-controlled Iraq.

What the US knows it can't manage alone are postattack elements, from developing a new regime to peacekeeping and reconstruction. Experts say those problems could require an international presence for a decade.

"The Europeans see that we will expect them to come in and do the nation-building afterwards, and they're uneasy with that," says Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration.

At the same time, the US wants partners – Europeans and Muslim countries – to demonstrate that this quarrel is the world against a rogue state – not the US against a Muslim power.

European leaders harbor little doubt, sources say, that the US through technology and sheer power can achieve "regime change" – the Afghanistan war convinced them of that. But they also believe a post-war Iraq would be considerably more complex, costly, and risk-fraught. A strong objection for Europeans is that the US hasn't made a case for taking out Hussein. Some are looking for a legal case, with some form of United Nations approval.

"The concern is that if the US decides on its own that Iraq is a menace ... to be taken down," says Korb, "then given the string of American unilateral actions under this administration ... and given the 'axis of evil' standard, then what's to stop the US from moving next into Iran, and then North Korea?"

Some foreign leaders and members of the US Congress also want to seek a UN resolution justifying military action. They argue that such a step gave legitimacy to the 1991 Desert Storm war on Iraq.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and French President Jacques Chirac this month warned the US that they could only support a strike backed by the UN Security Council.

Both the US and Britain have suggested that step isn't necessary because Iraq remains in violation of UN resolutions ordering inspection of Iraq's weapons development sites.

IFRI's Mr. Moisi says European leaders join their Arab counterparts in concerns about the impact another US-led attack on a Muslim country will have on the "Arab street" – especially at a time when the Middle East remains tense and suspicions of the US role there remain high.

But, he adds, "The question of Iraq is running into a European cultural aversion to the idea of using violence as a tool. Increasingly we see an aversion to a military solution to these problems."

Mr. Schröder last week called for a negotiated solution to the impasse over Iraq's weapons programs. Christian peace activists opposed to war with Iraq presented a petition with 2,000 signatures to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, while a new survey showed 52 percent of Britons oppose military participation with the US against Iraq.

Some observers insist that what motivates the naysayers is not all high-minded concerns about international law, nation-building, and giving peace a chance. The French and Russians in particular have important commercial interests in Iraq they want to protect, they point out.

Still, Moïsi says that "at the end of the day" the Europeans are likely to fall in behind the US, though without enthusiasm.

"It would be difficult for the French to oppose an American campaign," he says, "yet difficult for them to join it as well."