26 April 2002

1. "Turkish prosecutor demands arrest of popular Islamic leader", a Turkish prosecutor on Thursday demanded the arrest of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a prominent Islamic activist who is under investigation for a 1992 speech in which he allegedly praised radical Islam and insulted the military, Anatolia news agency reported.

2. "Cyprus divide must be resolved before EU accession: Denktash", the Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, on Wednesday warned of major problems if Cyprus joined the European Union without resolving the crisis over the island's Turkish-Greek divide.

3. "Sezer: Capital Punishment Should Be Lifted", President Ahmet Necdet Sezer said on Tuesday that he thought capital punishment should be lifted. Sezer said there was not any need to put rules to the Constitution to lift capital punishment.

4. "Turkey: Ankara Seeks To Reduce Gas Supplies From Russia, Iran", Turkey has opened negotiations with Russia and Iran to reduce its gas imports under supply contracts that may impose costly penalties. Last week the country lowered its demand forecasts for the second time in three months after years of warnings that its estimates were too high.

5. "Yilmaz: Social unity cannot be maintained by bans and penalties", coalition junior partner Motherland Party (ANAP) leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz said that people should realize that social unity cannot be maintained by bans and penalties.

6. "Ecevit: There Is No Place For Early Elections And For Government Reshuffle In Agenda Of 57th Government", Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the leader of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), said on Thursday, ''if we can maintain our reform process for the next two years, Turkey will reach prosperity and its desired place in the world as a powerful state. Therefore, there is no place for early elections and for government reshuffle in agenda of the 57th government.''

1. - AFP - "Turkish prosecutor demands arrest of popular Islamic leader":

ANKARA / April 25

A Turkish prosecutor on Thursday demanded the arrest of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a prominent Islamic activist who is under investigation for a 1992 speech in which he allegedly praised radical Islam and insulted the military, Anatolia news agency reported. The prosecutor made the request after taking Erdogan's testimony at a state security court in Ankara, Anatolia said.

A state security court judge was now expected to decide whether to heed the prosecution plea after questioning Erdogan, the head of the opposition Justice and Development Party (AK), which has 53 seats in the 550-member parliament. In his speech in the northeastern city of Rize, a tape of which has recently been broadcast on a private television channel, Erdogan praised Islamic rule over secularism and expressed support for Islamic movements in Algeria and Central Asia.

He also claimed that the Turkish army sent untrained soldiers to fight Kurdish rebels seeking self-rule in the southeast of the country. "This is not defending the country. It is forcible suicide," said Erdogan, who at the time belonged to the now-defunct Welfare Party of former Islamist prime minister Necmettin Erbakan. The army has initiated a separate legal action against Erdogan on the grounds that his remarks amounted to "insulting and treating the armed forces with contempt" and "aimed to incite hatred and enmity among the public by observing religious differences."

Erdogan, the popular former mayor of Istanbul, has recently emerged as one of the main targets in Turkey's crackdown on political Islam. The secularist elite of this mainly Muslim country, backed by the powerful military, has clamped down heavily on pro-Islamic political movements since 1997, when Erbakan, Turkey's first Islamist prime minister, was forced to resign.

Last week, the constitutional court dealt a major blow to Erdogan's political aspirations when it ruled that he could not run for parliament in the future because of his 1999 conviction for sedition, handed down against him for publicly reciting a poem with pro-Islamic messages. The sentence, for which Erdogan spent four months in jail, had included a ban on political activity. Erdogan made his political comeback last summer, arguing that his sentence came under the scope of an amnesty law of December 1999.

2. - AFP - "Cyprus divide must be resolved before EU accession: Denktash":

STRASBOURG/ April 25

The Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, on Wednesday warned of major problems if Cyprus joined the European Union without resolving the crisis over the island's Turkish-Greek divide.

"Turkish Cypriots will never accept representation in the EU by Greek Cypriots. They cannot speak in our name," Denktash told a news conference. He said the Turkish-ruled northern sector would "hermetically" seal the border, and that northern Cyprus would become more dependent on Turkey at the risk of a further "bloodbath" between the two communities.

The EU's Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen has stated repeatedly that although the Union would like to see a settlement in Cyprus, it would not make this a condition for the island's accession by mid-2004. Since Turkish troops intervened in the island in 1974, the Turkish-ruled republic created in northern Cyprus under Denktash has only been recognised by Turkey.

3. - Anadolu Agency - "Sezer: Capital Punishment Should Be Lifted":

ANKARA / 25 April

President Ahmet Necdet Sezer said on Tuesday that he thought capital punishment should be lifted. Sezer said there was not any need to put rules to the Constitution to lift capital punishment. Sezer, who attended a reception hosted by Parliament Speaker Omer Izgi to mark the 82nd anniversary of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, responded to the questions of reporters.

When asked about the discussions pertaining to education in mother tongue, Sezer said the constitution was an obstacle in education in mother tongue. ''Education in mother tongue is impossible without an amendment in the constitution.''

Responding to a question about lifting of death penalty, Sezer said, ''I think it should be lifted,'' and pointed out that there was no need to put rules to the Constitution to lift capital punishment.

When asked about his views regarding harsh criticisms toward the parliament, Sezer said the most important organs were the Parliaments in some parliamentary democracies, noting that there was not an organ above it. ''Parliaments can be criticized, but I don't find any attack to it as right.''

President Sezer said the arrangements in line with Copenhagen criteria should be done whether or not Turkey enters the EU. Sezer said membership to the EU can be thought by considering Turkey's national interests after those arrangements were made.

4. - Radio Free Europe - "Turkey: Ankara Seeks To Reduce Gas Supplies From Russia, Iran":

Turkey has opened negotiations with Russia and Iran to reduce its gas imports under supply contracts that may impose costly penalties. Last week the country lowered its demand forecasts for the second time in three months after years of warnings that its estimates were too high.

BOSTON / by Michael Lelyveld / 23 April 2002

After a long series of denials and delays, a Turkish energy official conceded last week that the country is trying to reduce its gas supplies from Russia and Iran.

Speaking at an Ankara energy conference on 15 April, Gokhan Bildaci, the general manager of the Turkish state pipeline company Botas, said the company is seeking "possible cuts on the price and amount of gas Turkey buys from these two countries," the "Turkish Daily News" reported.

During the previous week, Bildaci told the Reuters news agency that company officials had recently returned from Iran, suggesting that their mission was to seek new contract terms. Russian gas officials are expected to visit Turkey this week to negotiate cuts in price and volume, the "Turkish Daily News" said.

Turkey has signed contracts with both countries that oblige it to pay for set volumes of gas whether it takes delivery or not. But Turkey's 14-month-old economic downturn has sharply reduced the amount of gas it can use. The take- or-pay contracts could cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars.

How much gas Turkey really needs is debatable, because energy officials used inflated demand estimates long before the current economic crisis and an earlier recession in 1999.

In the mid-1990s, other countries also relied on Turkey's forecasts of rapid economic growth. Russia and Iran have both invested in new pipelines to Turkey. Russia in particular is engaged in the $2.5-billion Blue Stream project to pipe gas across the Black Sea, while Azerbaijan is scheduled to start building another gas line through Georgia at the end of next year.

Turkey's bid to reopen its contracts may prompt a long-overdue examination of what went wrong with its gas plans and why it took so long to recognize that they would not be fulfilled.

Last week, the Turkish daily "Radikal" wrote, "The erroneous natural gas planning, the exorbitant prices set by the municipalities, the sad end: Turkey will pay compensation to the tune of 221 trillion liras ($170 million) to Iran and Russia for the natural gas it was unable to obtain over the past three months." The paper said the bill could top $1 billion this year.

But Turkish officials have continued to accentuate the positive and have given various versions of the problem in recent days.

At last week's conference, Energy Minister Zeki Cakan stressed growing demand and the need for private investment, saying that Turkey would import 80 percent of its energy by 2020. The country needs between $3 billion and $3.5 billion in energy investment every year until 2020, he said. Cakan apparently said nothing about the current over-commitment to gas purchases, leaving the question to Bildaci. But the issue has been hard to confront.

Days earlier, Bildaci denied to Reuters that Turkey would have to pay penalties because of its lagging consumption so far this year. Bildaci said, "We will not pay any compensation money to Russia or Iran because of the first-quarter purchases." He argued, "We did receive less than contract volumes in the first three months. But for the clause to take effect you have to look at the annual purchases."

But at the conference, Bildaci seemed to concede that "Turkey might this year face compensation on gas it has so far been unable to import due to the unexpectedly drastic fall in domestic demand and the absence of facilities which could store the surplus gas," according to the "Turkish Daily News."

Sensing a problem, Turkey has rushed to reach an agreement on building a pipeline to Greece so that it can pass on its surplus. But it may take years to transfer transit gas to Europe as a way to ease Turkey's glut.

On 19 April, Botas lowered its gas demand estimates for this year by 5 percent, marking the second downward revision in the past three months. The company posted the new data on its website, apparently without an announcement.

Turkey is said to be paying $135 per thousand cubic meters of gas. If the new Botas numbers are accurate, the company has contracted to buy almost 6 billion cubic meters more than it can use this year. The cost would be $810 million.

That may not be the full extent of the damage. The latest forecast still assumes a 19.5 percent increase in consumption from 2001 at a time when the economy is expected to grow only 3.6 percent, according to a new International Monetary Fund projection. Turkey's economy so far has shown no sign of growth this year.

The latest Botas estimate also implies that gas use will soar an astonishing 66 percent next year. The growth rate is even higher than before, because the company has left its high forecast unchanged for 2003 while lowering the figure for 2002. A further decrease in the Botas estimates seems warranted.

Turkey's trouble in facing reality has several implications for other countries. First, Iran and Russia must decide whether to quietly revise their contracts and accept lower revenues or impose penalties, which could be hard to collect. The press in both countries has largely ignored the problem, perhaps because it can only be blamed on equally poor planning in Russia and Iran.

Secondly, it is unclear whether pipeline and gas development should be slowed to allow for Turkey's problems. Even if the contracts are revised, the unused capacity of new pipelines could mean millions of dollars in opportunity costs.

Lastly, the reliability of take-or-pay contracts for financing gas projects in the region may also suffer, increasing the risks for many countries. Poland has also been negotiating with Russia to revise its contracts with the gas monopoly Gazprom due to slower growth in demand.

Turkey's experience is a strong argument for examining energy forecasts early and often, especially when revisions may meet resistance because of political concerns.

5. - Turkish Daily News - "Yilmaz: Social unity cannot be maintained by bans and penalties":

26 April

Coalition junior partner Motherland Party (ANAP) leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz said that people should realize that social unity cannot be maintained by bans and penalties.

Addressing a panel entitled, "European Union-Turkey-Alawites," organized by the Hacibektas Anatolia Cultural Foundation, Yilmaz noted that he believed Turkey would contribute much to the EU, which was based totally on mechanical relations.

Yilmaz said that Turkish Alawites and Bektashis had serious problems, which were growing day by day, and added that ignoring these problems for the sake of the unity of the country would in fact pose a threat to Turkey's unity and future.

According to Yilmaz, the lifetime of a state would extend in parallel to the increase in the number of citizens devoted to it. Yilmaz noted that the people's devotion could be secured by providing greater freedoms and a stronger democracy, adding that the government was paying attention to the EU in this regard.

Yilmaz emphasized that social sects and their representatives should be aware of the fact that it was now impossible to succeed in politics through "identity" campaigning. Politics based on ethnic and religious identity are a dead-end, he added.

"On the other hand, the State should also be aware of something: It is wrong to put pressure on the expression of identities in political terms," said Yilmaz, adding that it was impossible for Turkey to continue on its path with bans, especially stipulated by the Political Parties Law.

He questioned whether politics could be discussed in a healthy manner in a country where the Constitutional Court banned a political party on the grounds that the party defended views different from those of the Religious Affairs Directorate.

6. - Anadolu Agency - "Ecevit: There Is No Place For Early Elections And For Government Reshuffle In Agenda Of 57th Government":

ANKARA / 25 April

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the leader of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), said on Thursday, ''if we can maintain our reform process for the next two years, Turkey will reach prosperity and its desired place in the world as a powerful state. Therefore, there is no place for early elections and for government reshuffle in agenda of the 57th government.''

Speaking at the DSP group meeting, Prime Minister Ecevit said, ''the coalition government is about the complete its third year with success. During this period, our government has dealt with extremely difficult problems and begun to solve many long-standing problems.''

''We have eradicated separatist terrorism. We have fought againts all kinds of corruption, gangs and mafia. We have recorded important development in market economy. We have succeeded in removing deficiencies in the finance sector. We have removed the obstacles in front of foreign investments. Interest rates and inflation have begun to decrease rapidly in recent months. Turkish lira has appreciated. We have launched great initiatives in exports and tourism. We have begun to remove imbalance in distribution of income in public sector. We have opened the doors leading to European Union (EU) full membership,'' he said.

Prime Minister Ecevit noted, ''if we can maintain our reform frocess for the next two years, Turkey will reach prosperity and its desired place in the world as a powerful state. Therefore, there is no place for early elections and for government reshuffle in agenda of the 57th government. Raws may break out among coalition partners. Raws and differences of opinion are in question even in single-party majority governments. The most important thing is to reach compromise.''

''The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) that is the heir of a dark past, has been trying to show itself as innocent and planning to win the general elections as the first political party. Meanwhile, the Republican People's Party (CHP) which suffered a heavy blow during the last general elections, is ready to accept the risk of setting up cooperation with a separatist political party. When the time of general elections comes, such political parties will be fade away. Because Turkish people are experienced enough not to be carried away by political adverturers,'' he added.