11 April 2002

1. "Turkey – Torn Between Two Sides", Turkey could play a key role in ending the Middle East conflict. The country is predominantly Muslim and traditionally sympathizes with the Palestinian cause. But Turkey has also forged close ties with Israel.

2. "Turkey to raise ESDP issue during talks with Marc Grossman on Tuesday: Grossman to arrive in Ankara on Monday", the issue of the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), will be raised by the Turkish side during the Turkish-American talks, to be held in Ankara next Tuesday.

3. "Kurds in first skirmish of Iraq conflict", the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, has fired the first shot in the long-expected battle to resist US-led attempts to unseat him.

4. "Turkey warily prepares to take over Afghan peacekeeping mission", after weeks of intense negotiations among Afghan, American, British and Turkish officials, Turkey's government has finally accepted command of the international peacekeeping force in Kabul - if only "in principle."

5. "ANKARA: Turkey urges Iraq to reconsider oil cut", Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz urged Iraq Wednesday to reconsider its decision to halt oil exports for 30 days to avoid increasing the hardship suffered by its sanctions-hit population, the Anatolia news agency reported.

6. "Turkey must turn reforms to growth, IMF says", Turkey is making progress reforming its economy, but must convert the gains into economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

1. - Deutsche Welle - "Turkey – Torn Between Two Sides":

Turkey could play a key role in ending the Middle East conflict. The country is predominantly Muslim and traditionally sympathizes with the Palestinian cause. But Turkey has also forged close ties with Israel.

It's only fair for partners to be frank with one another. But if one country says the other is waging genocide, you know something is seriously wrong in their partnership.

In recent years, Turkey and Israel forged a close military partnership. The country is Israel's closest ally in the region.

Yet on Thursday, Turkish Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit accused Israel of waging genocide against the Palestinian people. It was Turkey's harshest criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's policies against the Palestinians to date.

Increasingly critical

Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit (photo) is increasingly critical of Israel's policies towards the Palestinians. ''A genocide against the Palestinian people is being carried out before the eyes of the world,'' Ecevit said in parliament on Thursday.

"The Sharon administration has chosen the path of occupation and war instead of peace and dialogue," Ecevit added.

On Friday he downplayed those charges. ''In this speech I touched upon the grave results the events in the Middle East could lead to,'' he told Reuters. ''My words reflected the anxiety felt in our country and our region.''

"We will continue to make our best efforts in order to ensure that a peaceful dialogue and

cooperation initiates between the two societies," the Turkish Prime Minister promised.

"Suicide of two nations"

Key politicians in Turkey have condemned Israel's most recent actions against Yasser Arafat. Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem called Israel's treatment of the Palestinians "a violation of human rights." He said the spiraling violence threatened the entire Middle East. Cem called on the U.S. to intervene to "end the suicide of two nations."

Thousands of Turks took to the streets this week to declare their solidarity with the Palestinians. They demanded Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon should end the military offensive.

On Wednesday, Turkish trade unionists laid a black wreath outside the Israeli consulate in Istanbul. They shouted "Sharon is a murderer" and "Freedom for Palestinians."

On Thursday, there were anti-Israeli demonstrations in many cities across Turkey. In the Turkish capital Ankara, some 2500 demonstrators vented their anger at Israel.

What unites Muslims and Jews

A multitude conflicting interests draw Turkey into the Middle East conflict. It's population is predominantly Muslim and strongly supports Palestinian statehood. But regardless of its ties to the Arab world, the country also sees itself as part of Europe and is a member of NATO.

And – what may be surprising at first sight – predominantly Muslim Turkey and the Jewish state share the same view on a number of key issues. Both countries see themselves as Western outposts in the Middle East. They are united in their aim to keep Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi influence in the region low. And they are bound by a military cooperation deal signed in 1996.

Since then, the Turkish and Israeli military have repeatedly staged joint maneuvers with American troops. These military exercises always caused a storm of protest from the Arab world. But that never caused Turkey to reconsider the value of this coalition.

Defense deal under scrutiny

Just before Easter, Turkey finalized a multi-million euro military cooperation deal with Israel. It's yet another step intensifying the military cooperation between the two countries. Under the accord, the Israeli state defense firm IMI (Israeli Military Industries) will upgrade 170 US-made M-60 tanks belonging to the Turkish armed forces. The deal is worth 763 million euro ($668 million).

But in light of Israel's recent incursions into Palestinian territories, many in Turkey now have second thoughts about this deal. The large majority of the people and politicians in Turkey see Israel as the aggressor behind the escalation of violence. On Tuesday, leaders of Turkish opposition parties called for the deal with IMI to be scrapped.

Turkey's influential military, however, has made clear that the IMI deal isn't up for discussion. The generals have pointed out that Turkey's tanks are in urgent need of modernization. They are unwilling to look for a new cooperation partner, since IMI is a recognized specialist for upgrading M-60 tanks.

Consequently, Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit has announced that the deal concluded with Israel on March 29 will stand. This week he was quoted as saying that the deal had been signed and could not be reversed.

Extending a hand

Ecevit is still interested in maintaining good relations with both Israelis and Palestinians. And even though his statement about Israel conducting a "genocide" may disqualify him as a neutral mediator in the Middle East conflict, his country could still play an important role in ending the violence.

The trump card now lies with Turkey's President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In a move that could spell hope for the Middle East, Sezer this week urged a new dialogue.

Sezer said a military solution to the Middle East conflict was impossible and recommended a meeting between the different parties involved in the conflict.

And Turkey's President offered his country could host such a meeting.

2. - Turkish Daily News - "Turkey to raise ESDP issue during talks with Marc Grossman on Tuesday: Grossman to arrive in Ankara on Monday":

ANKARA / BY SAADET ORUC / 11 April

The issue of the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), will be raised by the Turkish side during the Turkish-American talks, to be held in Ankara next Tuesday.

U.S. Undersecretary of State for political affairs Marc Grossman will arrive in Ankara on Monday evening for talks, co-chaired by Turkish Foreign Ministry undersecretary Ugur Ziyal and Grossman, to take place on Tuesday.

The main aim of the visit by Grossman will be NATO issues, such as the expansion of the alliance, the challenges that it faces, its defense capabilities and the new security environment, as well as relations with Russia, diplomats told the Turkish Daily News.

Senior Turkish diplomats said on Tuesday that no matter what, the United States will not get into the ESDP issue, Turkish officials will raise the ongoing dispute between Greece and the European Union over the rapid reaction force planned to be formed by the 15-member bloc.

U.S. officials, in response to this, comment that the issue is on the EU side, but not in the U.S. corner.

Grossman will be arriving in Ankara from Brussels, and is scheduled to visit eight states as part of his mission for NATO affairs, starting with Turkey.

Turkey, Britain and the United States have agreed on a consensus concerning the ESDP issue, during a chain of talks held in Istanbul, Ankara and London.

Turkey officially declared its approval for the new EU defense force.

Greece, this time, put its reservations on the consensus between Turkey and the two key Western capitals.

The EU presidency was involved in efforts to remove the Greek barrier.

A senior EU official told the Turkish Daily News, that the EU presidency is waiting for the Greek government to tell the 15-member bloc what to do. "The Greek side stated that there are some points in the Ankara accord, which needed to be modified. We suggested to send the responsible EU official on defense matters Javier Solana to Athens. However no news came from Athens and they have not given a date for this," he said.

EP backs Greece on ESDP deal

The European Parliament, on the other hand, declared that the consensus with Turkey over the ESDP was against the decision-taking process of the EU, taking a clear position near Greece.

During Wednesday's session at the EP General Assembly, a report penned by German parliamentarian Elmar Brok, who is the head of the foreign relations, human rights, common security and defense policy commission and a resolution related with this report were approved. The European Parliament also decided to demand information from Britain on the consensus reached by Turkey.

The EU official speaking to the TDN on Wednesday said that the EP has no competence of defense matters.

3. - The Scotsman - "Kurds in first skirmish of Iraq conflict":

James Dorsey In Istanbul / 10 April

THE Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, has fired the first shot in the long-expected battle to resist US-led attempts to unseat him.

Days before announcing a 30-day halt to Iraqi oil exports, an Iraqi-backed radical Islamic group in predominantly Kurdish northern Iraq attempted to assassinate a pro-Western Kurdish leader, a potential US ally in any military action against Iraq.

Kurdish officials said yesterday that Ansar-al-Islam, an Islamist group believed to be linked to Osama Bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, was behind an attempt last week to kill Barham Salih, the pro-Western prime minister of that part of northern Iraq that is governed by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

The PUK along with its rival, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), governs northern Iraq under the umbrella of US and British warplanes that prevent Iraqi forces from entering the area.

Senior US officials believe that the PUK and the KDP could play the role that the Northern Alliance played in Afghanistan in any US-led assault on Iraq.

The attempt on Mr Salih’s life took place as US ambassador Ryan Crocker, was visiting northern Iraq. Five of Mr Salih’s bodyguards and two of the attackers were killed in a gun battle with pro-Western Kurdish fighters that ensued when the assassination attempt took place.

Kurdish officials draw a comparison between the attempt on Mr Salih and the killing of the revered Afghan guerrilla commander Ahmad Shah Masood, days before the 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

Ansar-al-Islam last year killed Franso Hariri, the most senior Christian politician in northern Iraq. The group’s fighters are believed to have been trained in Afghanistan and sent to northern Iraq in an attempt to weaken the pro-Western Kurdish forces.

Kurdish officials say the attempt on Mr Salih served as a message that both the PUK and the KDP are vulnerable to Saddam’s machinations.

The Kurds insist, however, that they are determined in their struggle to overthrow Saddam and build a democratic Kurdish society that would be part of a post-Saddam Iraq.

Following the attack, Mr Salih said it had only strengthened Kurdish resolve. "The attack has united all Kurds and has shown to friends and foes that all sides in northern Iraq are committed to enhancing the quality of life," he said.

Their determination notwithstanding, the Kurds are walking a fine line. Past experience has shown that the United States could drop the Kurds in any confrontation with Saddam Hussein, leaving them at the Iraqi leader’s mercy.

As a result, the Kurds are demanding iron-clad guarantees before aligning themselves with any US-led attempt to unseat Saddam.

"Reports have once again started talking about Saddam’s use of weapons of mass destruction against ‘his own people’," wrote Fereydun Hilmi, a Kurdish analyst, in Kurdish Media.

"This highly misguided and insulting phrase to the Kurdish nation which purports to suggest that the Kurds are actually Saddam’s own people carries with it all the danger signs that the West intends to end 11 years of de-facto independence for South Kurdistan.

"The Kurds are not Arabs and Saddam is a staunch Arab nationalist - that means that the Kurds could never be regarded as Saddam’s people by any stretch of imagination," added Mr Hilmi.

4. - Eurasianet - "Turkey warily prepares to take over Afghan peacekeeping mission":

ISTANBUL / 10 April / by Jon Gorvett

After weeks of intense negotiations among Afghan, American, British and Turkish officials, Turkey's government has finally accepted command of the international peacekeeping force in Kabul - if only "in principle." Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit declared after meeting Afghan interim Prime Minister Hamid Karzai in Ankara on April 4 that "it is a great honor for Turkey" to take command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which the British have run since its inception. As Turkey takes control, the recent heightening in tension and violence in the Afghan capital raises the worry that the country might be entering a military and political quagmire.

In early 2002, Turkey had seemed enthusiastic about taking command when the current six-month term for British leadership ends in late April. However, doubts later emerged - mainly regarding the exact terms of ISAF's mandate and the financial burden that taking charge would place on a nation still trying to recover from last year's financial meltdown. [For background, see EurasiaNet's Business and Economics archive]. British and US mediators then flew to Ankara to negotiate on Turkey's concerns, a process which is still continuing. In a March 29 statement, parties have agreed on the financial aspects, with the United States promising some $228 million of aid - $28 million of which will go directly to supporting Turkey's command role in ISAF.

Turkey remains committed only "in principle" because of more nettlesome concerns. These include the length of the ISAF mission and the role of other countries - which Ankara fears may pull out without providing for backup to Turkish troops. Earlier this month, Ankara dispatched Major General Akin Zorlu to Kabul to assess take-over arrangements with the British. Zorlu is reported to have requested that the British headquarters leave behind much of its equipment - including vital satellite communications systems - or risk major delays in the Turkish deployment.

Turkish officials are calling American promises of aid inadequate. The C-130 transport planes the United States has promised are not enough, according to the Turks, who want bigger aircraft and more of them. Turkey's General Staff now says commanders will need some 1,600 additional Turkish soldiers to take over the ISAF operation, including 300 to provide security at Kabul airport. Currently, Turkey maintains a force of some 267 troops in the Afghan capital, who are working alongside soldiers from the UK, France, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany.

More broadly, ISAF's scope and strategy make Turkey nervous. As its mandate currently dictates, ISAF will help protect Karzai's interim administration until its term ends after the Loya Jirga (Grand Council) meets in June. The force also promises to train a new Afghan police force and army. All this is to be done strictly within the city limits of Kabul though, with no ISAF mandate for operations outside the capital - despite fervent requests from Afghan officials for such an expansion.

Ecevit himself had earlier questioned the logic of that restriction, as security concerns are much greater in the rest of the battered country. However, it seems that during the negotiations, the United States in particular was adamant that it did not want ISAF widening its area of operations outside Kabul. Turkey may yet push harder on this issue; Karzai gave Ecevit and his colleagues entrée to do so during his trip to Ankara. "Afghans outside of Kabul would like to see the extension of the peacekeeping force as a guarantee of continued security," he told reporters in the Turkish capital. He then added that as Turkey was de facto taking over command of ISAF, it was up to Ankara to determine the mandate of its command.

Hence Ankara's dilemma. Ecevit and President Ahmed Sezer know that expanding ISAF to the relatively lawless Afghan provinces would put soldiers in harm's way, yet Ecevit is on record as saying that such expansion makes strategic sense. "Karzai wants the international force to operate outside Kabul as well," says Turkish Daily News columnist Mehmet Ali Birand. "Meanwhile, the countries that contribute to that force are extremely reticent on this issue. They know that if the international force operates outside Kabul it will be faced with enormous risks." So Turkey may be hedging its bets, taking a better read of the security situation around Afghanistan.

Recent news has been discouraging. At the same time as the Afghan leader was in Ankara, reports were also arriving of an attempted coup in Kabul against his government, widely blamed on the opposition forces of former Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. [For more information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A day after Karzai departed the Turkish capital, ISAF troops also came under fire in Kabul, and a day after that, an assassination attempt was mounted against Karzai's defense minister, Mohammed Fahim. [For more information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Just how much security there is in "safe" Kabul too was therefore quickly a matter of concern in Turkey.

"If Turkey takes command of ISAF," says Metin Kanca from Istanbul's Marmara University, "then they will be in charge when Karzai's interim government mandate comes to an end. They'll also be there when the Afghan parliament meets to decide what to do next [in building a government]." These will probably be disorienting, unstable months in Kabul and beyond. "Turkish troops may find themselves caught in the middle," says Kanca.

During his visit, Karzai himself moved to head off Turkish fears in this regard. "The security of the Turkish soldiers is guaranteed," he told journalists in Ankara. Prime Minister Ecevit told reporters: "Afghanistan is now led by a government of hope. We feel obliged to support such an administration." He added that Turkey would also be providing educational and medical aid to the war-torn country.

In the fragile region, a commitment in principle may be disastrous to break. With Turkey now laying plans for its deployment, many of its citizens hope that Karzai's guarantees can somehow hold water in uncertain times.

Editor's Note: Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.

5. - AFP - "ANKARA: Turkey urges Iraq to reconsider oil cut":

ANKARA / 10 April

Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz urged Iraq Wednesday to reconsider its decision to halt oil exports for 30 days to avoid increasing the hardship suffered by its sanctions-hit population, the Anatolia news agency reported.

"I hope Iraq will review its decision after Israel's declaration that it will gradually withdraw from Palestinian territories, because it is unclear for how long the Iraqi economy, hard-hit by wars, can shoulder this burden," Yilmaz told MPs from his centre-right Motherland Party (ANAP).

Iraq suspended oil sales -- both through the outhern Turkish port of Ceyhan and the Mina al-Bakr terminal on the Gulf -- on Monday in what President Saddam Hussein described as a protest against military offensive against the Palestinians.

"I cannot say how Iraq, which purchases food and medicine for its people through oil sales, can help the Palestinian people with the decision, but it clearly drags the future of its own people into uncertainty," Yilmaz added.

The United Nations said on Tuesday that Baghdad's decision would leave the oil-for-food programme 1.6 billion dollars short of the 4.6-billion-dollar budget in its current six-month phase, which ends on May 29.

Although under severe UN economic sanctions imposed after it invaded Kuwait in 1990, Iraq is authorized to export a certain amount of oil and to apply the proceeds -- under strict UN supervision -- to the purchase of food and humanitarian supplies.

Yilmaz also claimed that the halt in Iraqi oil exports wouls hurt border trade in Turkey's southeasteran regions where hundreds of trucks cross over to Kurdish-held northern Iraq to bring back diesel in return for food.

"We do not yet know what the cost will be on the Turkish economy" when the country is trying to recover from one of its worst recessions in decades with IMF aid, Yilmaz said.

The diesel trade is outside the confines of the UN oil-for-food program but is tolerated by Turkey's Western allies for the country to partially make-up for Ankara's financial losses from the UN sanctions on Iraq.

Turkey puts the losses at about 40 billion dollars.

6. - BBC - "Turkey must turn reforms to growth, IMF says":

April 11

Turkey is making progress reforming its economy, but must convert the gains into economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

The IMF's local representative Odd Per Brekk praised Turkey for its progress in cutting interest rates and inflation this year and for maintaining a good balance of payments performance.

"Macroeconomic and financial stability is the first prerequisite for growth," he said.

But, he added, "looking ahead, this achievement needs to be completed by a return to positive economic growth".

Sacked

The relatively positive comments came after the government on Tuesday sacked its privatisation chief Ugar Bayar.

Mr Bayar was dismissed after reportedly disagreeing with the state minister who oversees privatisation, Yilmaz Karakoyunlu.

The two are said to have clashed over investment plans for Turkish Airlines, which is due to be privatised under Turkey's agreement with the IMF.

There were also reports in some Turkish papers that highlighted the fact that Mr Bayar's brother had decided to leave a diplomatic post to head a political party expected to be a direct rival to Mr Karakoyunlu's Motherland Party.

Observers said that while Mr Bayar's sacking might cause delays to Turkey's programme of state company sell-offs, it was unlikely to derail the overall strategy.

Growth hopes

Mr Brekk said he was "hopeful that the three percent target for gross national product growth in 2002 is reachable", even though there have been few signs of economic growth in Turkey so far this year.

Some observers feared the prospects of US military action against Turkish neighbour Iraq could hit the tourism industry, which is a vital source of foreign currency earnings.

But Mr Brekk insisted that "with a better government budget position and a more healthy banking system, combined with the floating exchange rate, Turkey is now in a much better position than it was one or one and a half years ago to prevent any external or domestic disturbance from developing into a full-scale crisis".

No problem

The IMF is to meet on 15 April to consider the pay-out of a $1.1bn loan tranche.

The road to Turkey's latest IMF programme began in February 2001 when a devastating financial crisis forced it to devalue its currency, the lira.

The lira plunged by almost 50%, inflation soared by about 80%, and hundreds of thousands lost their jobs, plunging Turkey into its worst recession in 50 years.

The financial crisis lingered for months, bringing the country's gross national product down by 9.4%.

In the end, the IMF stepped in with $12bn in fresh, though conditional, loans along with the release of $4bn of frozen loans.

Conditions

Among the IMF's conditions was the demand that Turkey's politicians would grant its regulatory bodies and state banks greater independence.

"Against this background we believe that the government must resist any temptation to stray from the basic strategy to deal with the short term problems," Mr Brekk said.

Last month, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit caused concern when he suggested the government would seek to regain some economic powers in a bid to fund quick economic expansion.