15 October 2001

1.- Turkish Daily News - "IHD Warns Possible Human Rights Violations Under War Threat":

In the midst of chaos due to the first war of the new millennium, Turkey's main human rights advocate, the Human Rights Association (IHD), warned of possible human rights violations under war conditions and the threat of war conditions.

ISTANBUL

"The IHD and other human rights associations are aware that the global war threat and the uncertain environment can have a negative effect on human rights issues," IHD Chairman Husnu Ondul stated during a press conference.

He added that human rights advocates knew from their experiences that every human rights violation that was not investigated is a sign of new human rights violations.

Citing human rights abuses in the Southeastern region as an example, Ondul stated that the right to live, the right to organize demonstrations and the ban on torture were all violated during the years of terrorism.

The southeastern and eastern regions of Turkey were the scene of conflict between security forces and outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorists that ended up claiming the lives of more than 30,000 people.

"Those who violated human rights and those who are responsible for the violations were not tried, were not punished. This promotes human rights violations and results in the acceptance of human rights violations," Ondul said.

Ondul said that the earlier human rights violations and the subsequent promotion and acceptance of these violations would have serious results when combined with the global war threat.

Turkey is notorious for its human rights record especially due to its human rights malpractice in Eastern and Southeastern regions. The human rights violations had reached a peak during the security forces' fight against PKK terrorism.

Turkey, which is often criticized for its poor human right conditions in the international arena, said the background of the events should be reviewed.

It claimed that terrorism claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people before the 1980 military coup between extreme leftist and rightist groups. After a few years of peace and understanding, yet another dispute in Turkey claimed the lives of thousands of people. PKK terrorism in the Southeast, which lasted for over ten years, was another reason for lack of achievement in human rights issues.

After the end of the PKK terrorism, a rapid achievement was expected. And after Turkey was declared a member candidate of the European Union at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) summit in Istanbul, it was expected to take measures to improve its human rights record.

Human rights associations of Turkey, which is in the midst of the winds of war, fear a rise in human rights violations, once again.

---

2. - Turkish Daily News - "State of War Rattles Turkey's Economy: Toward a New Juncture With the IMF":

ANKARA / by Guzin Yildizcan

* Economists suggest that the relations between Turkey and the International Monetary Fund will depend on the state of war, and argue that even if the IMF continues to standby for Turkey's economic program, an ineluctably contracting world economy will reflect negatively on Turkey's economic targets

* Economist Sonmez says Turkey may use the state of war as a pretext to suspend relations with the IMF, increase public spendings and revive the market, leading to an inflationary setting and elections in April 2002. He points out that the IMF would agree to such a move as it would be cleared of responsibility

* Associate professor Uzunoglu says that as Turkey already has difficulty finding foreign credits, it has no other resources than what the IMF provides to service public and foreign debt. He argued that the IMF will want to continue to work with Turkey, even if this is done under a new program

The economic crisis that marked 2001 in Turkey has gained another dimension following the U.S.-led strikes on Afghanistan. Security issues have shot up the agenda, overwhelming the discussion of economic issues per se.
This process creates concern about the prospects of the embattled Turkish economy. As the possible fallout of the state of war on Turkey is debated, it is unclear if the economic program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as standby will continue at all and how it will be modified if it does.

Turkey's economy administration is currently seeking to determine the budget goals for 2002 in line with the current relations with the IMF.

According to the preliminary budget targets of the Higher Planning Board (YPK), the 5 percent growth forecast was pulled down to 4 percent, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was revised from 16.6 percent up to 31 percent while Consumer Price Index (CPI) was revised from 20 percent to 35 percent. In line with the expected rise in inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) targets were revised from TL 246 quadrillion to TL 280 quadrillion. The only constant item in budget forecasts is the 5.6 percent balance excluding interest.

Economists suggest that the relations between Turkey and the IMF will depend on the state of war, and argue that even if the IMF continues to standby for Turkey's economic program, an ineluctably contracting world economy will reflect negatively on Turkey. They conclude that it is unlikely that the budget targets that are currently drawn will prove realistic.

'Relations with IMF would snap'

Economist Mustafa Sonmez says as the climate of war requires a contraction of world economies, there will be a significant shrinkage in goods, capital and tourism. He points out that this situation would be particularly compromising for Turkey, as this country needs "foreign capital, tourism revenues and exportation more than ever to overcome the economic crisis in which it finds itself."

Sonmez recalls that Turkey has asked the IMF for supplementary loans as it became more difficult to obtain foreign loans after Sept. 11, and says that the deferment of the international lender's $3 billion pledge indicates the need for this country to fulfill its obligations on time.
"The IMF wants Turkey to cut down on spendings and not allow the balance excluding interest to go below 5.6 percent. It requires limitations in public spendings like the salaries of public employees and the expenditures of a social state. In other words, it wants to see more limitations than in 2001."

War economy

Sonmez points to a contradiction Turkey may face should it get engaged in the U.S.-led war with Afghanistan: "If Turkey plays an active role in the war, it will have to increase public spendings, and a situation inversely related to what the IMF wants may emerge."

Sonmez lines out two options Turkey will then have in terms of economic prospects. In the first case, Turkey will use the state of war as a pretext to suspend relations with the IMF, increase public spendings and revive the market, leading to an inflationary setting and elections in April 2002.

This would not be a very wise move, says Sonmez, for the following reasons: "Since this would indicate that the IMF-supported programs in 2000 and 2001 ended in failure, the difficulties endured by Turkey for several years in the process of the transition to a strong economy and the erosion of its welfare level will have happened in vain. The reforms would be discarded and Turkey would be back to square one, at the inflationist condition of the year 1997. The vicious circle would set in."

Sonmez points out that should Turkey go the way of suspending relations with the IMF, the international lender would willingly assent. "The IMF can clear itself by saying if Turkey cannot implement the reforms and limit public spendings, they will not be responsible for Turkey's failure. They may say that Turkey did not heed their suggestions, so the responsibility is not with the IMF. The war would be a pretext for what would be a zero-sum game on both sides."
The second option for Turkey, according to Sonmez, is that military spendings will increase, but relations with the IMF will continue. The public will be asked to adhere to an austerity package because of the state of war; it will have to foot the bill. Elections will not come into question under these circumstances."

'2002 will be a lost year'

Associate professor Sadi Uzunoglu of the Istanbul University notes that the state of war will make more elusive the goal of economic stability in a world that is already heading for a recession, and states that the new overriding goal in the world will be security strategies. He points out that the United States is a giant economy with exports of $1 trillion a year, and explains that a slowdown in the United States will ripple in the world.

He recalls that the stability program that Turkey is currently implementing is based on the expectation of higher revenues in tourism and export, two sectors hard hit by the war. Uzunoglu believes that foreign investors, who were already hesitant to invest in Turkey, will now cut that option completely. "The FDI looks for calm harbors, it is clear that at a time when an attack on Iraq is discussed, capital won't flow to this country's neighbors, including Turkey." He adds that hopes of obtaining foreign credits have waned and privatization is a lost game.

The upshot is that 2002 will be very difficult, says Uzunoglu, and adds that the recession may extend into 2003. As regards how Turkey's relations with the IMF may be impacted, he says that none of the sides will risk a suspension of mutual relations.

"As Turkey is already having difficulty finding foreign credits, it has no other resources than what the IMF provides to service public and foreign debt. That is why Turkey cannot shake off the IMF -- in which case it would have to call a moratorium. This option would not be in the interest of the IMF.

"That is why the IMF will continue to lend to Turkey, even if it does so under another program. As the world stands on the threshold of war, the United States would not want to lose its control over Turkey at a time when this country seeks accession to the European Union. The IMF will ask Turkey to undertake structural reforms like reducing the size of the public sector, reorganizing the finance sector, etc., at whatever cost."

Uzunoglu argues that the near conclusion of work for the budget and economic targets for 2002 suggests that they will be shortly revised. "The goals for 2002 will be determined on paper. This is done to please the IMF. We will need to make a lot of changes later on."

Turkey at a juncture

Economist Gungor Uras said in his column in the daily Milliyet on Oct. 8: "We are heading for difficult times. There will be some changes in the stability program that is in effect. What we hear is that the IMF circles do not say that it has totally collapsed or that it should be shelved. But they say that a serious revision is needed."

He makes the following estimations for the future: "Will it come to pass that the relations between the IMF and Turkey are cut off, forcing Turkey to start from zero? If relations with the IMF continue, will the failure of the current program be admitted and will a new one be prepared? No one yet says that the program collapsed and everything ended. It is only that Turkey is asked to solve its own problems and face up to the difficulties created by this process. As it appears, Turkey is at a crossroads. If the additional rectifications demanded by the IMF are not adopted and implemented by Ankara, it will become difficult to continue the relations with the IMF."

---

3. - TURKIYE - "Why are we hesitating?":

Egypt, Pakistan or Israel.

The Turkish Government could only comprehend the meaning of the September 11 tragedy a week later and she was not able to explain the stance Turkey had to take to her people since the most reasonable explanations coming from the Government would be received with doubt and reaction due to the economic crisis stemming from the incapability and clumsiness of the Cabinet.

Hesitations on the issue were largely due to these facts. However, these should be left in the past and cannot be valid for today.

---

4. - Middle East Newsline - "IMF presses Turkey to cut defence budget":

ANKARA

The International Monetary Fund is pressing Turkey to cut its defense budget.

IMF officials have urged the government in Ankara not to increase Turkey's defense budget, based in the lira currency. The result would be a sharp drop in the budget in real terms as a result of a decrease of 70 percent in the value of the lira since February.

The IMF and the World Bank plans to lend Turkey $15.7 billion in a drive to maintain the nation's solvency. The drive came after Ankara's financial crisis early this year led to a run on banks.

An IMF delegation is discussing the government budget with officials in Ankara amid efforts by the military to increase funding to prepare for Turkey's participation in the U.S.-led campaign against terrorism. The defense budget for 2001 is valued at $4.3 billion, far lower than the original projection of $7.2 billion. The budget was discussed in a meeting chaired by Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit on Thursday.

The projection for fiscal 2002 is that the budget would be no more than 10 percent higher in dollar terms than that of the current year. This is expected to maintain the current suspension of many of the 32 programs frozen in April. The value of the frozen programs amount to $19.5 billion.

The military has denied that it has secretly issued an increase in salary. The General Staff issued a denial amid a freeze on government salaries.

At the same time, Turkey has agreed to send troops to Afghanistan should such a request come from the United States. Turkish officers discussed the issue in Washington this week amid increasing opposition to the idea from the Turkish public. Diplomatic sources said Ankara's offer was meant to increase Washington's support for financial aid to Turkey.

---

5. - The Kurdistan Observer - "Iraq 'behind US anthrax outbreaks'":

American investigators probing anthrax outbreaks in Florida and New York believe they have all the hallmarks of a terrorist attack - and have named Iraq as prime suspect as the source of the deadly spores

NEW YORK / by David Rose and Ed Vulliamy

Their inquiries are adding to what US hawks say is a growing mass of evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved, possibly indirectly, with the 11 September hijackers.

If investigators' fears are confirmed - and sceptics fear American hawks could be publicising the claim to press their case for strikes against Iraq - the pressure now building among senior Pentagon and White House officials in Washington for an attack may become irresistible.

Plans have been discussed among Pentagon strategists for US air strike support for armed insurrections against Saddam by rebel Kurds in the north and Shia Muslims in the south with a promise of American ground troops to protect the oilfields of Basra.

Contact has already been made with an Iraqi opposition group based in London with a view to installing its members as a future government in Baghdad.

Leading US intelligence sources, involved with both the CIA and the Defence Department, told The Observer that the 'giveaway' which suggests a state sponsor for the anthrax cases is that the victims in Florida were afflicted with the airborne form of the disease.

'Making anthrax, on its own, isn't so difficult,' one senior US intelligence source said. 'But it only begins to become effective as a biological weapon if they can be made the right size to breathe in. If you can't get airborne infectivity, you can't use it as a weapon. That is extremely difficult. There is very little leeway. Most spores are either too big to be suspended in air, or too small to lodge on the lining of the lungs.'

As claims about an Iraqi link grew, senior health officials in Britain revealed they warned all the country's GPs last week to be vigilant about the disease. 'I think we have to be prepared to think the unthinkable,' said the Government's Chief Medical Officer, Dr Liam Donaldson.

The Department of Health confirmed the Government is conducting an urgent review of Britain's ability to cope with chemical or biological attacks.

It also emerged last night that three people who worked in the Florida buildings at the centre of anthrax scares are now in the UK and undergoing tests for the disease. And in America a letter sent from Malaysia to a Microsoft office was found to contain traces of anthrax.

In liquid form, anthrax is useless - droplets would fall to the ground, rather than staying suspended in the air to be breathed by victims. Making powder needs repeated washings in huge centrifuges, followed by intensive drying, which requires sealed environments. The technology would cost millions.

US intelligence believes Iraq has the technology and supplies of anthrax suitable for terrorist use. 'They aren't making this stuff in caves in Afghanistan,' the CIA source said. 'This is prima facie evidence of the involvement of a state intelligence agency. Maybe Iran has the capability. But it doesn't look likely politically. That leaves Iraq.'

Scientists investigating the attacks say the bacteria used is similar to the 'Ames strain' of anthrax originally cultivated at Iowa State University in the 1950s and later given to labs throughout the world, including Iraq.

According to sources in the Bush administration, investigators are talking to Egyptian authorities who say members of the al-Qaida network, detained and interrogated in Cairo, had obtained phials of anthrax in the Czech Republic.

Last autumn Mohamed Atta is said by US intelligence officials to have met in Prague an agent from Iraqi intelligence called Ahmed Samir al-Ahani, a former consul later expelled by the Czechs for activities not compatible with his diplomatic mission.

The Czechs are also examining the possibility that Atta met a former director of Saddam's external secret services, Farouk Hijazi, at a second meeting in the spring. Hijazi is known to have met Bin Laden.

It was confirmed yesterday that Jim Woolsey, CIA director from 1993 to 1996, recently visited London on behalf of the hawkish Defence Department to 'firm up' other evidence of Iraqi involvement in 11 September.

Some observers fear linking Saddam to the terrorist attacks is part of an agenda being driven by US hawks eager to broaden the war to include Iraq, a move being resisted by the British government.

The hawks winning the ear of President Bush is assembled around Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, his deputy Paul Wolfowitz, and a think tank, the Defence Policy Advisory Board, dubbed the 'Wolfowitz cabal'.

Their strategy to target Iraq was hammered out at a two-day seminar in September, of which the dovish Secretary of State Colin Powell had no knowledge.

The result was a letter to President Bush urging the removal of Saddam as a precondition to the war. 'Failure to undertake such an effort,' it said, 'will constitute a decisive surrender in the war against terrorism'.

In a swipe at Powell's premium on coalition-building, it continues: 'coalition building has run amok. The point about a coalition is "can it achieve the right purpose?" not "can you get a lot of members?"'

Administration officials close to the group told The Observer : 'We see this war as one against the virus of terrorism. If you have bone marrow cancer, it's not enough to just cut off the patient's foot. You have to do the complete course of chemotherapy. And if that means embarking on the next Hundred Years' War, that's what we're doing.'

---

6. - The Kurdistan Observer - "Congressman Filner: Denying freedom to Kurds will only make Turkey a pariah state in world":

The Statement of Congressman Bob Filner at Sheridan Circle Washington DC, Thursday, October 11, 2001

WASHINGTON DC

219 days ago, I came to this site to associate my name with the cause of freedom and liberty in Turkey. 7 years, 7 months and 11 days later, freedom remains beyond the reach of the Kurdish parliamentarians, Leyla Zana, Hatip Dicle, Orhan Dogan and Selim Sadak. Last summer, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that they had been treated "unfairly" and that the Turkish court, which gave them a fifteen-year sentence, was not "independent".

In the past 221 days, you have stood here in the snow and rain, in the cold and heat, in the light and dark to right and wrong by forgoing your own freedoms to effect that of the Kurdish parliamentarians' with courage, resiliency and tenacity. You have done this in a gentle way, by a non-threatening method, through non-violence. The friends of liberty have been awed by your resolution. Those of tyranny have sought ways to daunt you from the noble task.

Reports in the Turkish press note that the Turkish Ambassador here has worked around the clock to revoke your permit by invoking the privileges of diplomatic relationship with us to avoid in the words of his spokesman, a "daily harassment" from you. Turkey may be an important ally; but it is not as important as the bill of rights. Freedom of speech is the bedrock of this country. No tie, diplomatic or any other kind, can part us from our inalienable rights.

Freedom, the new Turkish Ambassador Lagoglu here and his government in Ankara need to know, is the birthright and natural inclination of every human being. Denying it to the Kurds will only make Turkey a pariah state in the world. The Kurds will follow the path of freedom with the force of nature on their side. Those who try to stop them will only secure a place for themselves in their wake. That is no place for the Turks to be. This is the counsel our government should whisper into the ears of the Turkish representatives.

You have celebrated liberty, humanity's greatest gift to its children, by its closest companion, vigilance. I am told that over 100 Kurds have interned themselves inside the "Cell of Atonement". I am told that over 40 Americans have come here to do the same. I am told that close to 4000 people have visited this place in the past 7 months and 11 days. Your sacrifice has been immense. Its reward may not be immediate but will be great.

I have also been told that a Kurdish activist has engaged in a poll of his own by asking the taxi drivers of greater Washington, DC, area, if they knew of the vigil at the Sheridan Circle.
Eight out of ten, apparently, have responded in the affirmative. Thousands of motorists, who take this major through-fare behind you, have also learned of your attachment to the cause of freedom. You have fought indifference with commitment. You have shown the world that a few can stand up tall and proud in front of power.

It has always been the story of our humanity to reject a new idea irrespective of its merits.
The Kurdish quest for freedom is a good example of that. Your adversaries refuse to acknowledge you and have managed to get the world on their side. You have to
outmaneuver them to engage the world in your plight. This vigil has aspired to do that.
Because of it, people have talked about the Kurds. It is a matter of time that they will also respect you and accept you in their midst.

I am reminded of a quote by Victor Hugo who wrote that, "There is nothing more powerful in all the world than an idea whose time has come." The love of freedom has enabled you to withstand the loneliness, the threats and the fumes of thousands of vehicles in this circle.

This love will also carry you to the dawn of freedom. I hope that day is soon. I
know it will come. Biji Kurd u Kurdistan.

---

7. - Associated Press - "Turkey Faces Dilemma by Backing U.S.":

NATO's sole Muslim member and a key U.S. ally - has pledged its support of the U.S.-led campaign against terrorism. But the backing comes at a time of great economic uncertainty for the country

ANKARA / by Selcan Hacaoglu

Inflation is expected to top 70 percent this year, the lira has shrunk more than 60 percent against the dollar since February and up to a million Turks have lost their jobs. And there are fears the war on terrorism could deepen the economic crisis by spreading to neighboring Iraq and then to Turkey.

``We have two fronts,'' said Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit in an interview with Radikal newspaper Sunday. ``There is the Afghanistan crisis ... our second front is economy.''

Last week, parliament authorized sending Turkish troops to train fighters of the northern alliance, the main anti-Taliban force in Afghanistan.

The sprawling Incirlik air base, in south-central Turkey, would be a key staging area for U.S. planes in a possible operation against Iraq. It was a launching pad for attacks against Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War.

Incirlik is apparently being used as a transport hub in the campaign against Afghanistan.
But Turkish leaders are facing growing public uneasiness over the U.S.-led airstrikes on a fellow
Muslim country.

In Istanbul on Sunday, riot police used dogs and truncheons to disperse hundreds of leftist demonstrators protesting the military strikes on Afghanistan, two days after firing tear gas to break up another demonstration by 2,000 Islamists.

Polls indicate that some 70 percent of the public oppose the U.S. strikes on Afghanistan, fearing that it could engulf Turkey.

``It is not our war,'' said Arif Tuncel, a civil servant. ``Why should we send soldiers?''
Most Turks also say they feel betrayed what they call the West's ``double standards'' in fighting terrorism.

Turkey has received little Western backing in its fight against Kurdish rebels who have carried out bombings and arson attacks in a campaign for autonomy. Some 37,000 people, mostly Kurds, have been killed in the 15-year-long fight. The U.S. State Department has named rebels' Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a terrorist group.

``When I saw the planes ramming into the twin towers, I said: 'Well done,''' said Senol Basbay, a computer programmer. ``It is sad, but now they can understand what terror is.''

Many Turks also are angry at European countries for activating the NATO's Article 5 - which says an attack on one alliance member is an attack on all - only after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Turkey had made similar appeals in the past.

As Turkey becomes increasingly reliant on Western loans to recover from its economic crisis, however, it has little room to maneuver.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have offered loans of $15.7 billion. But the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States and the U.S.-led campaign against terrorism have doomed Turkey's prospects of recovering with exports and tourism.

``Most of that contribution has evaporated because of these latest incidents,'' Ecevit told private NTV television Sunday, appealing to the G-7 countries for extra loans. ``It is in their interest to help Turkey out of this economic crisis.''

Turkey, which has already lowered its economic targets for 2002, is seeking loans of up to $9 billion to sustain the program next year.

``Next year will be a difficult year for the Turkish economy, at least as difficult as 2001,'' said Zemin Yildiko, an economist with Istanbul-based Nurol Securities.