29 June 2001

1. "Turkish Islamists promise new party", the leader of a banned Turkish pro-Islamic party says a new political party is to be set up within the next few weeks.

2. "Cyprus rethinks plan to exhume remains", the Cyprus government said Thursday it was rethinking plans to open up mass graves believed to hold the remains of missing Turkish Cypriots.

3. "Turkey should back democracy in north Iraq", Turkey is caught between the demands of the northern Iraqi Kurds, Baghdad and Washington, and has to play a tight rope act as it tries to safeguard its security and economic interests.

4. "Turkey/Iran: New Doubts Arise On Gas Pipeline", a senior Turkish envoy promised Iran this week that Ankara will begin accepting the delivery of gas under a 25-year contract at the end of next month.

5. "US Delegation in Kurdistan to Examine No-Fly Zone, Other Needs", a U.S. delegation will evaluate the need for continued flights over northern Iraq during a visit this week to the region, where U.S. and Kurdish sources say Saddam Hussein has deployed as many as 10,000 members of his elite Republican Guard.

6. "Turkey continues to cut defense budget", Turkey continues to reduce its defense budget amid fiscal woes expected to last for at least the next year.


1. - BBC - "Turkish Islamists promise new party":

The leader of a banned Turkish pro-Islamic party says a new political party is to be set up within the next few weeks.

The constitutional court banned the Virtue Party last week for alleged anti-secular activities.
But its former leader, Recai Kutan, told reporters that work would begin to set up a new party immediately.

He said that he would be willing to stand as its leader, if asked.

The Council of Europe has become the latest organisation to say it regrets the banning of the Virtue Party, which says will detract from political stability in Turkey.


2. -Reuters - "Cyprus rethinks plan to exhume remains":

NICOSIA

The Cyprus government said Thursday it was rethinking plans to open up mass graves believed to hold the remains of missing Turkish Cypriots.

Government spokesman Michalis Papapetrou said the Greek Cypriot side was reconsidering after Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash announced earlier this week he would not cooperate with the investigation.

He said the original announcement on the exhumations had been made "in the hope that the Turkish Cypriot side would respond to it."

"We now have before us statements by Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash that Turkish Cypriots will not give blood to the Greek Cypriot side for DNA testing," Papapetrou said. "This precludes any cooperation on their part."

Papapetrou said the government would now rethink its strategy on the matter before it makes any further moves.

He called on Denktash to honor a pledge made during a UN-brokered agreement in July 1997 which called for the exchange of information on the location of graves, the exhumation of remains and the return of remains to the families concerned on both sides.

Some 800 Turkish Cypriots were reported missing after ethnic clashes in 1963 and more than 1,600 people disappeared during the Turkish invasion of the island in 1974.

Foreign Minister Yiannakis Cassoulides announced last week that the government intended to exhume remains from specific areas in the south of the island where it is believed the remains of missing Turkish Cypriots are buried.

He called on relatives of missing Turkish Cypriots to come forward and give blood to help scientists in their efforts to identify remains.

Exhumations of remains in two Nicosia cemeteries began in 1999 to identify Greek Cypriots buried in unmarked graves who had been killed during the Turkish invasion in 1974.
So far the remains of 108 people have been identified: 26 missing persons, 76 military
personnel and six civilians.

The exhumations are being carried out by forensic experts from the international organization Physicians for Human Rights, led by Dr William Haglund, in conjunction with a team of scientists from the Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics.

Cyprus has been divided into ethnic Greek and Turkish sectors since Turkey invaded the island in 1974 after a coup engineered by the junta then ruling Greece.


3. -Turkish Daily News - "Turkey should back democracy in north Iraq":

BY ILNUR CEVIK

Turkey is caught between the demands of the northern Iraqi Kurds, Baghdad and Washington, and has to play a tight rope act as it tries to safeguard its security and economic interests. But both diplomatic observers and experts who are close to the region feel Turkey has to contribute more to the enhancement of democratic values in Iraq in general and in northern Iraq in particular.

Diplomatic observers say they understand Turkey's concerns that the de facto situation in northern Iraq may lead to unwanted developments like the creation of a Kurdish state. But, they stress this is impossible under current circumstances and that Turkey should not be concerned about democratic developments in northern Iraq which is healthy not only for the Kurds but also for the whole of Iraq.

The Turkish Daily News last week quoted Turkish official sources who said, "We don't consider the northern parts of Iraq as the lands of Massoud Barzani." Officials of the Kurdistan Democratic Front later told the TDN that it is true that Barzani does not regard the region as his property. They stressed that the region belongs to the 4 million Kurds living there and "that it is Barzani's responsibility to maintain the peace, stability and prosperity of the people."

Experts say Kurds are experimenting with new democratic moves which should be encouraged. They say what the Kurdish practice in the northern part of Iraq is a unique experiment in democracy in a volatile and unstable region. Foreign diplomats who have visited the region say all ethnic and religious groups in northern Iraq live side by side. TV and radio stations, magazines, newspapers schools, political parties and cultural centers of various ethnic groups are active and operate freely.

They say it is ironic to see one part of Iraq and its 4 million people in the north enjoy all these rights and have democratic institutions whereas the center and south of the country still live under an iron rule.

Observers say democracy in the "Autonomous Region of Iraqi Kurdistan," which is defined by the Iraqi Constitution and approved by Saddam Hussein, should be encouraged by the free world and especially by Turkey so that this trend could set a positive pace that could spread to the whole of Iraq.

Both diplomats and foreign experts say Barzani, as a main political figure not only among Kurds but also for the future of the stability of Iraq and the region, should be assisted to develop his local administration and democratic institutions further.

Recent municipal elections in the KDP controlled areas with the participation of communists, Islamists, nationalists, Turkomans and Assyrians was a success with an almost 85 percent turnout in both provinces of Arbil and Dohuk. Observers stress this is the first example of free municipal elections in the region in the past 45 years.

They also say there are efforts between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) which runs a portion of northern Iraq to convene a joint parliament in Arbil with the aim of holding new elections to settle internal conflict through the ballot box and bring stability to the area which would be to the benefit of Turkey.

However, observers say there are negative developments in recent months which suggest that while Turkey is encouraging its businessmen to get more involved in northern Iraq, it is also creating obstacles. Turkish companies have opened offices in Arbil and Suleimaniyeh and are bidding for U.N. controlled infrastructure projects worth tens of millions of dollars. They say Iran has also increased its activities in the region both in trade and in culture.

However, KDP regional officials tell the TDN that recent restrictions introduced on the Habur border gate to cut down individual crossings, a decrease in the volume of trade and a reduction of diesel imported by truck has hurt the local economy in northern Iraq as well as in Southeastern Turkey. They say contrary to this Iran and Syria have encouraged crossings of individuals such as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), media people, businessmen, diplomats, politicians and academicians. Turkey has also introduced Iraq visa requirements for Turks even if they are only crossing into northern Iraq.


4. -Radio Free Europe - "Turkey/Iran: New Doubts Arise On Gas Pipeline":

A senior Turkish envoy promised Iran this week that Ankara will begin accepting the delivery of gas under a 25-year contract at the end of next month. The statement contradicts Turkey's top pipeline official, who said again last week that the gas would be delayed. Our correspondent Michael Lelyveld looks at the issues surrounding this apparent contradiction.

BOSTON / By Michael Lelyveld

Conflicting statements from Turkey have raised new doubts about whether the country will start importing gas next month through a pipeline from Iran.

In recent days, Turkish and Iranian officials have given contrary accounts of plans to begin gas deliveries through the pipeline at the end of July. Both countries agreed to the date after Turkey sought an earlier postponement from January of last year.

Last week, Gokhan Yardim, the general director of Turkey's state pipeline company Botas, said that supplies from Iran would probably be delayed again until the fall. Yardim has been warning since early May that the 1996 gas deal between the two countries would be set back.

But Yardim has been largely alone among Turkish officials in making that claim. On 25 June in Tehran, a senior Turkish diplomat pledged at a press conference that the gas transfer would take place as promised and on time.

Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Faruk Logoglu was quoted by the official newspaper "Iran Daily" as saying that "by the end of July, Iran will start its gas exports to Turkey."

At a later appearance with Logoglu, President Mohammed Khatami hinted at the importance of the 25-year gas deal and the evident difficulty of keeping it on track.

Khatami said: "Fortunately there is a strong determination for removing misunderstanding and resolving issues between the two countries. Hence, relations can be formed on the basis of mutual respect and non-interference in the affairs of each other."

Citing the benefits of trade to bilateral ties, the president added, "With the transfer of Iranian gas to Turkey, both countries will be linked even further."

The deal, which has been valued at over $20 billion, marks Iran's first attempt to export gas by pipeline. Although there has been blame on both sides, the latest trouble may be traced to Turkey's fragile economy, which has plunged since a political crisis in February. Ankara has also announced delays in a gas pipeline from Russia across the Black Sea.

Iran has been notably restrained in its reactions to Yardim's outspoken comments, perhaps reflecting how delicate the situation is.

Last month, the head of Botas blamed Tehran for any lost time. Yardim said Iran had failed to build a metering station to measure the gas and had not implemented half of the 35 preconditions for an operating agreement.

In March, an anonymous Turkish energy official also told the country's news agencies that the gas deliveries would be stalled because of problems in Iran.

In a statement last month, the National Iranian Gas Company replied calmly, "All operations related to this scheme are progressing [according] to the contract time plan," adding that it "has commissioned all related equipment for the gas delivery."

Iran's low-key reaction stood in contrast to a sharp response over a year ago after Turkey sought more time to finish work on the pipeline connecting the two countries. Turkey also cited trouble in obtaining compressor equipment from the United States, which opposed the project.

At the time, Iran claimed $200 million in penalties under a take-or-pay contract for the gas. Tehran withdrew its demand after Turkey extended the term of the deal from 2022 to 2025, setting the new start date for next month.

This time around Iran has made no mention of claims, apparently preferring to negotiate behind the scenes. Iran has also been relatively quiet about Turkey's decision last week to ban its Islamist Virtue Party, although Khatami appeared to touch on the issue in talking about "non-interference" in bilateral affairs. Government-backed news media like the "Iran Daily" have covered the story on inside pages or not at all.

Tehran was far more vocal when Ankara banned Virtue's predecessor, the Welfare Party, in 1998. Iran signed the gas deal in 1996, when a Welfare-led government in Ankara was in power.

It is not clear how much work Botas has done on a 300-kilometer section of pipeline that was still unfinished in May. The company promised to complete the line in time for the 30 July deadline, insisting that any shortcomings on the project would be on the Iranian side.

But much of the gas network to serve 57 cities in Turkey remains to be built. Investment has also reportedly been held back this year by an official corruption probe into the energy industry.

Iran's decision to deal with the trouble diplomatically may be a sign that its options are few and its stake in the success of Turkey's economy is high.


5. -UPI - "US Delegation in Kurdistan to Examine No-Fly Zone, Other Needs":

A U.S. delegation will evaluate the need for continued flights over northern Iraq during a visit this week to the region, where U.S. and Kurdish sources say Saddam Hussein has deployed as many as 10,000 members of his elite Republican Guard.

Military experts have told the London Sunday Telegraph they suspect Saddam may be planning an attack into the north to create a crisis that would undermine international support for a plan to amend U.N. sanctions on Iraq.

Farhad Barzani, the Washington representative for the Kurdistan Democratic Party, said KDP sources inside Iraq estimate that close to 9,000 members of Saddam's Republican Guard have massed northwest of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

Other sources in the region said Iraq over the last three weeks has concentrated troops in an arc between Ba'adra and Shakhan.

An administration official said yesterday that recent intelligence reports estimate the number of troops in the area at between 8,000 and 12,000.

Mr. Barzani, interviewed Tuesday evening, said, "This is a little bit more than a routine exercise, [but] I still cannot say the threat is significant and imminent."

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher was asked Tuesday about the buildup after the London Telegraph report appeared in The Washington Times.

"We have seen reports that Iraq is moving troops towards the Kurdish areas. We are trying to establish the facts on the ground. We are watching the situation closely," he said. Qubad Talabani, a Washington representative for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the other main Kurdish political party inside Iraq, said U.S. and British forces patrolling the northern no-fly zone had responded effectively to such troop movements in the past, and that the PUK was confident the Western aircraft would defend them in case of an attack.

"We are seeing movement ... beneath the KDP territory. The response of Operation Northern Watch to a similar movement in December was very effective. It reassured the Kurdish people and sent a message to Saddam Hussein," he said.

The Iraqi troop movements come as the Pentagon evaluates the U.S. policy for patrolling the no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq, which have grown more dangerous as Iraq, with Chinese help, has upgraded its air defenses.

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, have proposed changing the rules of engagement to let U.S. planes strike Iraqi targets pre-emptively and defend civilian targets against Iraqi attacks, according to administration officials.

However, these sources said, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have opposed this tack in policy meetings, arguing instead for less-frequent flights.

The policy is bound to come up this week when a two-person State Department delegation meets in the Kurdish Iraqi cities of Sulemani and Irbil with the PUK leader Jalal Talabani and his KDP counterpart, Masoud Barzani.

A State Department official said the purpose of the visit is to try to determine "what is and what is not possible in northern Iraq -- what can we move forward on."

The official added, "There will be some discussions on how important the no-fly zone is to the north."

Kurdish leaders visited Washington in March for talks with officials at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the State Department and the office of the vice president.

"Everyone reassured us the no-fly zone would continue," Farhad Barzani said. "People assured us there would be technical changes on the rules of engagement, but the mandate would remain for the north."

Other sources who attended the meetings said the Kurds were not given a direct assurance that Iraqi strikes against Kurdish civilian targets would be answered with American air power.

On Tuesday, Mr. Boucher said, "Our long-standing policy has been that if Iraq reconstitutes its weapons of mass destruction, threatens its neighbors or U.S. forces, or moves against the Kurds, we do maintain a credible force in the region. We are prepared to act at an appropriate time and place of our choosing."


6. -Middle East Newsline - "Turkey continues to cut defense budget":

ANKARA

Turkey continues to reduce its defense budget amid fiscal woes expected to last for at least the next year.

Turkey's new budget contains revised spending figures for defense. The budget calls for a budget of $4.9 billion for the military and defense procurement.

The original budget -- passed before the fiscal crisis in February -- allocated more than $7 billion for defense. The reduction in defense spending was a key demand by the International Monetary Fund, which plans to lend Ankara up to $14 billion as part of a fiscal recovery program.

The defense procurement budget was also sharply reduced. The budget for the Defense Ministry procurement undersecretariat was slashed from $1 billion to $500 million.

Overall, the state budget was increased to $73.9 billion, a move meant to pay for mounting government debt. the budget was ratified by parliament on June 14.

Turkey has stepped up marketing efforts to win orders from its battered defense industries. Ankara has lobbied the Far East, including China, to cooperate with Turkey's defense contractors.

The issue was discussed during a trip earlier this month by Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu to Beijing. Kivrikoglu was reported as interested in buying a Chinese unmanned air vehicle.

On Wednesday, a Turkish F-16 warplane crashed outside Ankara during a training exercise. The pilot bailed out and was said to be in good condition. A military statement attributed the crash to a technical failure.