07. Dezember 2001

1. "Turkey should stay out of Iraq", Turkey is faced with crucial foreign-issue problems these days, including its stance vis-a-vis with its neighbour Iraq in the event of a U.S., military operation against that country

2. "Should we rejoice?", Turkey and the European army. On the decision to support the European Defence and Security Policy

3. "Turkey Ready to Lead Afghan Peacekeeping Force", Turkish officials today repeated their offer to take the lead in any international peacekeeping force for Afghanistan, telling Secretary of State Colin L. Powell they were ready to dispatch troops to Kabul once military operations allow.

4. "Dinner diplomacy as Cypriot leader crosses divide", Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides crossed to the north of Cyprus for the first time in decades on Wednesday, celebrating a thaw on the divided island by dining with Turkish Cypriot rival Rauf Denktash.

5. "Greece and Turkey must resolve the Cyprus question", the European Union accepted Cyprus as a candidate for its next round of enlargement, and with the target date for accession of 2004 barely two years off, a solution no longer looks like wishful thinking.

6. "Positive Initiative in Cyprus and 2002 Optimism!", recent developments and the cautious optimism seen on the eve of the New Year in contrast to the year now ending.

1. - Turkish Daily News - "Turkey should stay out of Iraq":

by Ferruh Demirmen

Turkey is faced with crucial foreign-issue problems these days, including its stance vis-a-vis with its neighbour Iraq in the event of a U.S., military operation against that country. Although the U.S. claims it has no immediate plans to strike Iraq, it has also made clear that the option is very much on the table.

The hawkish tone of President Bush's remarks about Iraq and his revival recently of the United Nations (U.N.) arms embargo issue with Iraq -- a subject long dormant in public memory -- leave little doubt that Bush would like to widen the fight against terrorism to Iraq. If he were to do that, Bush would have overwhelming support from the American public. The problem the U.S. faces is that its European allies have little enthusiasm for an operation against Iraq. They think the U.N., embargo issue has reached a dead-end, and consider the evidence linking Iraq's Saddam Hussein to the Al-Qaida network unconvincing.

The Arab countries are also opposed. Such meagre international support would not necessarily deter Bush from attacking Iraq, although obviously he would like to have broader international support for his Iraq policy. In this context, Turkey's support would be crucial. Unlike during the Gulf War, when the U.S., had the freedom to hit Iraq both from the south and the north, this time military operations against Iraq, especially on the ground, must be conducted primarily from the north, i.e. Turkey. Bush, therefore, would very much like to have Turkey's help in a possible U.S., strike against Iraq. Bush will undoubtedly also count on the assistance of Iraqi opposition forces within Iraq, but based on past experience, such assistance might not be very useful. Turkey has taken the position that it is opposed to widening the war on terrorism to Iraq. On the occasion of U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent visit to Turkey, President Ahmet Sezer repeated Turkey's concern on this issue. Such statements notwithstanding, however, the government has also projected an image of being irresolute on the issue. Of late, we have heard ruminations, first from Turkey's ambassador to Washington Faruk Logoglu and later from Defence Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu, that Turkey would be flexible on its Iraq policy and could drop its objections to a U.S., attack on its neighbour "if circumstances changed."

What do the seemingly contradictory statements signify? As one possibility, remarks by Logoglu and Cakmakoglu could be intended as trial balloons to test public's reaction to Turkey joining hands with the U.S., in a move against Iraq. Another explanation is that the Turkish leadership is split on the Iraq issue, with no clear-cut consensus. A more plausible explanation, strengthened by a fresh (Dec. 5) news item in TDN, is that the government, while in principle opposed to an operation against Iraq, would be willing to change its stand and support such operation if so asked by the U.S. Whatever the explanation, it is not a reassuring situation. A policy based on posturing, vacillation or equivocation, whatever one might call it, is not the way to conduct foreign policy. A firm stand is what is needed. This brings us to a core question: If the U.S., were to move against Iraq to depose Saddam, should Turkey support such an operation? The answer to this question should depend on what "support" means. If by "support" it is meant Turkish troops joining the operation alongside the U.S., troops, the answer should be a definite "no."

There are many reasons why Turkey should not actively join in a hostile act against Iraq. First, Iraq is already weakened internally by ethnic and sectarian strife, and the operation would likely result in political partitioning of the country. This could give rise to the establishment of an autonomous or semi-independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, giving fuel to the separatist aims of Kurdish guerrillas active on either side of the border. Turkey's unity would be threatened. Second, a large-scale military operation would bring the already crisis-ridden Turkish economy to a screeching halt. Third, it would hurt Turkey's relations with its neighbours and the Arab world. Relations with the European countries would probably also be affected, undermining the country's efforts to join EU. And of course, Saddam's arsenal of chemical and biological weapons is something to consider. Lastly, Kemal Ataturk's "peace at home, peace in the world" guiding principle has served the Turkish republic well, and there is no reason why it should not continue doing so. Turkey does not need additional territory, and it has enough problems to deal with at home. All considered, an act of war by Turkey against Iraq in concert with the U.S., would be an adventure laden with imponderables and perils. And for those who would fantasize on putative gains from the war, that Turkey could walk away from such adventure with rich oil fields in northern Iraq, it is well to bring home the sobering fact that oil wealth alone is not sufficient to make a nation rich. Many a nation rich in oil have squandered their oil wealth, and many still do.

Turkey has plenty of oil and gas resources in its neighbourhood. What it needs, more than indigenous oil and gas, are political, fiscal and economic reforms that encourage productivity, trade and transparency and eliminate opportunism, graft and corruption. A reduced rate of population growth would also help. That said, Turkey may find sufficient justification to "support" a U.S.,-led attack of Iraq if that would mean making its ground and air infrastructure available for such operation. This would be support similar to the one given during the Gulf War, but with some caveats attached. In considering such support, Turkey should weigh the strength of evidence linking Saddam to the Al-Qaida network, and receive assurances from the U.S., that it would not -- as it did during the Gulf War -- suffer adverse political and financial consequences as a result of the operation. That would mean, firstly, Iraq remaining politically intact in the aftermath of the operation and security risks across the border minimized. It would also mean Turkey receiving compensation for financial losses from lost trade with Iraq. Whether the U.S., can actually deliver on such promises, however, is a different matter. The American public has a short memory in matters foreign, and there are voices in the U.S., policy establishment that advocate the establishment of a pliant Kurdish state in northern Iraq. The economy is also in recession, limiting severely the ability of the U.S., to be generous. Turkey has a hard choice to make.

2. - Hurriyet - "Should we rejoice?":

Turkey and the European army. On the decision to support the European Defence and Security Policy

ANKARA / by Oktay Eksi

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit stated this week that a problem which has vexed Turkey and the European Union for two years has now been solved. The prime minister said that Turkey had not retreated from the approach on the 'European Security and Defence Policy' (ESDP) that it has followed up to now and added that the conditions we had accepted met our expectations to a great extent. However, even this statement shows that there is a difference between our expectations and the conditions we have accepted.

At this point, we have to examine whether our expectations were too high and if our achievements mean we retreated from our position. We have to point out that some diplomats were criticizing the government for displaying high expectations. First we have find out if Turkey has relinquished some of its wishes. Turkey wanted to have a say in all matters when the military power to be formed by the EU wants to use NATO facilities. However, it seems that Turkey has abandoned this stance. Turkey's view will be taken only in 'strategic' operations requiring the use of NATO facilities. What will Turkey do if the EU decides which operation is 'strategic' or not?

At this point, the decision concerns NATO as much as Turkey. Therefore there is no need to panic. The issue which concerns Ankara is that if the EU army could be used against Turkey when Turkey's national security and interests are in question. According to what we know now, the EU power won't be used against Turkey. This guarantee is given particularly on Turkish-Greek disputes. However, if this guarantee is given only by a letter or an accord between Turkey and the current EU President, we must remember that the guarantees given by the Helsinki Summit term President of the EU are evaporating even now as the member states are beginning to say that they never signed such an accord. Therefore, such guarantees should be clearly inserted into the status of the power to be formed by the EU. Then we should also remember that the guarantee is limited to what is proffered to us. That is if you attach importance to the promises of the EU power in asking our opinions about operations which will be carried out in places of vital importance to us.

3. - The Washington Post - "Turkey Ready to Lead Afghan Peacekeeping Force":

ANKARA / by Alan Sipress

Turkish officials today repeated their offer to take the lead in any international peacekeeping force for Afghanistan, telling Secretary of State Colin L. Powell they were ready to dispatch troops to Kabul once military operations allow.

Powell held discussions over lunch with Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and senior Turkish military officers about the size, function and financing of an international force, as well as steps to train Afghan units that ultimately would take responsibility for security, diplomats said. The Turkish government also left open the possibility it would support any new military action against neighboring Iraq if the U.S.-led war on terrorism turned its sights on President Saddam Hussein once the battle in Afghanistan against Osama bin Laden's militant al Qaeda network and his Taliban protectors winds down. Cem said Powell had not apprised him of any such plans, despite widespread speculation in the Turkish media that the United States would seek Turkey's endorsement for intensified military action against Iraq.

Powell also tried to lower expectations of an imminent thrust against Baghdad, saying he told President Ahmet Sezer, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and Cem during meetings this morning that President Bush's national security advisers have yet to recommend any new Iraq policy. "With respect to what would be expected from Turkey, that's not even a question on the table now because we are not asking anything from Turkey because no decisions have been made or recommendations offered yet," Powell told reporters.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, Turkey has sought to cement its relationship with Europe and the United States by emphasizing its role as a pro-Western regional power in a crucial and unsettled part of the world. As both a Muslim country and a NATO member with extensive experience in special operations and peacekeeping, Turkey is uniquely positioned to play a central role in any peacekeeping force for Afghanistan. "We have already started to contribute soldiers toward a peacekeeping force in Afghanistan," Cem said. "As for the timing of this peacekeeping force and this Turkish presence, this depends mainly on the timetable the military authorities both in Florida and Ankara will decide."

The U.S. Central Command, which is based in Tampa and oversees the war in Afghanistan, has so far balked at deploying international peacekeepers because U.S. officials said this could encumber the military campaign. Turkey already offers important support for the U.S. policy toward Iraq by allowing U.S. aircraft that patrol the "no-fly" zone over northern Iraq to be based at Incirlik Air Base. U.S. analysts say Turkey's bases and location adjacent to the Kurdish-controlled region of northern Iraq would make Ankara's support essential for any campaign to step up military operations inside Iraq or instigate a new uprising by Iraqi dissidents against Hussein. Some Pentagon officials have been urging that Hussein become the next target of military action, while Powell and his lieutenants in the State Department have counseled caution.

Although Turkish officials have expressed reservations about an assault on Iraq, Cem said Ankara was willing to help confront any country deemed to harbor terrorists. "We believe we should go after terrorism wherever it exists, [including] cases where a state does not sponsor a particular terrorist but just lets the terrorists do its work by refraining to take acts against terrorist organizations," Cem told reporters. He warned, however, that a conflict with Iraq could prove destabilizing. "Of course, I have to add no country would like [to] see trouble in its neighborhood," he said.

Turkish officials have warned that an ill-conceived bid to overthrow Hussein could splinter Iraq and potentially undermine Turkey, which has faced its own Kurdish insurgency. Officials in Ankara also warn that military action could fuel anti-Western sentiment in the Muslim world. But Ankara has sent mixed signals about the strength of its objections.

Last week, Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu said new circumstances might prompt Turkey to reconsider its opposition. On the eve of Powell's visit, however, Sezer was more dismissive, saying: "We don't want an American operation concerning Iraq."

4. - Reuters - "Dinner diplomacy as Cypriot leader crosses divide":

NICOSIA / by Gokhan Tezgor

Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides crossed to the north of Cyprus for the first time in decades on Wednesday, celebrating a thaw on the divided island by dining with Turkish Cypriot rival Rauf Denktash.

Hailed by Secretary of State Colin Powell, who was visiting Turkey, the historic rapprochement between the two veteran rivals has offered hope of a solution to a problem that has dogged NATO neighbours Turkey and Greece for decades and is now also threatening plans to expand the European Union. Powell stressed, however, that a full settlement was still a long way off and comments by Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz underlined how hard it will be to strike a deal. Clerides crossed the ``Green Line'' dividing the Cyprus capital Nicosia in a limousine stripped of the flags and emblems of statehood that anger Turkish Cypriots. He drew up to smiles and handshakes outside Denktash's residence -- a scarce three miles from his own home on the other side of the city. The dinner follows a breakthrough meeting between the two old adversaries on Tuesday at which they agreed to start a new series of talks to resolve the division of the island. A reciprocal meal is planned in the south, which Denktash told Reuters would probably take place in mid-January, when face-to-face negotiations will start in earnest.

A Greek Cypriot president has not visited northern Cyprus since the aftermath of Turkey's 1974 invasion of the north in response to a Greek Cypriot coup backed by Athens. ``Since 1975 this is the first time,'' Denktash told Reuters.

Familiar Problems

The thorniest of a range of issues facing them will be allocating properties on both sides of the line that were once occupied by ethic Greeks or Turks forced to leave their homes. But Denktash said at least he and Clerides had addressed such issues in the past in numerous earlier failed attempts: ``There is no aspect of the Cyprus problem which has not been tackled in the past. Everything is know, everything is there.''

The European Union says it would prefer to admit a united island but says a settlement cannot be a precondition for the accession of Clerides' internationally recognized government in the south. Turkey has threatened to annex northern Cyprus if the EU goes ahead with that admission before a settlement. Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, speaking in Brussels, said the EU's policy of dealing only with Clerides' government was a mistake that worsened the situation. ``This stance of the EU cannot pave the way for a permanent peace,'' he said. ``It is rather an invitation to confrontation.'' Only Turkey recognizes northern Cyprus as a state. The rest of the world sees Clerides as president of the whole island, a position Denktash has long argued is unfair. Greek Cypriots say Denktash's administration was set up by Turkish force of arms and refuses to recognize it.

Denktash Upbeat

Denktash told Reuters shortly before the dinner that he felt the new attempt at solving a problem that has long resisted the best efforts of international arbitration had begun well. ``It's a good start,'' he said. ``I think we should show to our people we can talk, we can be friendly and, although we have difficulties in principle, that we are sincere in seeking a solution.'' But he stressed that Wednesday's meal -- of grilled fish, a traditional Ottoman aubergine dish called ``The Imam Fainted'' and a sweet, cheesy desert -- was only ``a social meeting.'' Its historic significance, however, is lost on no one on the island, where U.N. soldiers patrol the line dividing the south from the north, where Turkey garrisons some 30,000 troops. A small group of Turkish Cypriots released white doves as Clerides arrived in the north and journalists from both sides of the island as well as Turkey and Greece were present.

5. - The Independent - "Greece and Turkey must resolve the Cyprus question":

Ever since the European Union accepted Cyprus as a candidate for its next round of enlargement, diplomats have hoped that the prospect of membership would hasten an end to the 1974 division of the island. Finally, with the target date for accession of 2004 barely two years off, that goal no longer looks like wishful thinking.

This week's meetings between Glafkos Clerides, the President of the Greek and internationally recognised state of Cyprus, and Rauf Denktash, the leader of the self-styled Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, are their first face-to-face encounters since a failed summit in the US in 1997. Since then, the best efforts of the United Nations and other interested parties have produced merely "proximity talks" that have led nowhere. But, at last, confrontation may be about to give way to co-operation. Hitherto Mr Denktash's insistence on equal international standing for his statelet, recognised only by Turkey, has blocked all progress. Now, however, a series of talks will start next month in search of a settlement.

And not before time. The Berlin Wall has fallen, Communism has collapsed, but a fortified Green Line still splits Nicosia. The Cyprus deadlock, a product of the historic enmity between Greece and Turkey, has defied every effort of the world's deftest diplomats. But the EU's planned enlargement to the east has raised the stakes enormously. Greece threatens to veto any enlargement if Cyprus, even divided, is denied membership. The admission of the Greek part alone would, however, provoke a massive crisis with Turkey, a vital strategic ally of the West. A UN "set of ideas", suggesting a bizonal federation of two politically equal communities with one international personality, has been on the table since 1992. Messrs Denktash and Clerides, old friends turned sparring partners who have known each other since they were law students together in London in the late 1940s, must now seize the moment.

Ultimately, though, the overdue resolution of the Cyprus question depends on an understanding between Greece and Turkey. The key to a settlement lies not in Nicosia, New York or Brussels, but in Athens and Ankara.

6. - Milliyet - "Positive Initiative in Cyprus and 2002 Optimism!":

ANKARA / by Hasan Cemal

Recent developments and the cautious optimism seen on the eve of the New Year in contrast to the year now ending. Turkey entered the year 2000 in an optimistic mood. Its achievement of candidacy status for EU membership and the adoption of a reformist economic program were the reasons underlying this optimism. However, we faced 2001 in a very different mood. The coalition government failed to inspire any trust, and the initiatives required by the EU candidacy were struck on the runway. Delays and mistakes regarding the economic program issued the first signals of an important crisis.

Turkey is entering the year 2002 in an optimistic mood as it catches a new opportunity. Certain steps which must be taken concerning the new developments in both local and foreign politics may open the path in front of Turkey. There are two causes for optimism. One is the European army and the other is the Cyprus question. A compromise has been reached over the first one, and a door to compromise has been opened regarding the other. Both of these are important developments which are positively influencing Turkey's relations with the US and expanding the area where it can move more freely for national security reasons. Turkey did not want to be excluded from the European army, otherwise known as European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). However, there has been certain difficulties and concerns regarding the issue, as Turkey is not an EU member. Turkey's strategic location and its importance within NATO facilitated overcoming these obstacles. If Greece doesn't any new complaints an agreement bringing Turkey closer to Europe will be reached as Turkey becomes a part of the European defence identity. Another fresh start was seen on the Cyprus issue, which had damaged Turkey's relations with the EU and the US.

Denktas and Clerides, met in Nicosia face to face after four years and, what is more, stated that they would keep on meeting. The summit between Denktas and Clerides has shown that a serious negotiation process will begin in 2002. Cyprus is at a crossroads. Everyone is talking abut cautious optimism, including Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. If the Ecevit government convinces Parliament to adopt the mini-democracy package, continues to fight inflation and to restructure the economy, and if the Cyprus problem gets onto the right track, the road before Turkey will be opened up.