16 April 2001

1. - AP - "Turks know economic program will hurt before it heals":

ISTANBUL

Turks gave a cautious welcome Sunday to an austerity program that will slash government spending and pare down the state's economic role.

The program, unveiled by economy minister Kemal Dervis on Saturday, will cut government spending by 9 percent as one way to tame inflation, curb soaring interest rates and promote stable growth.

The International Monetary Fund, whose loans could be crucial to the program's success, welcomed the measures, but trade unions said the plan doesn't ease the suffering of low-income Turks who have taken to the streets since Monday in national protests to demand a new government and an end to the crisis.

"We couldn't oppose this program ... but there is nothing in it to reduce the tension of the people," said Bayram Meral, head of the country's largest union group, Turk-Is.

The program will keep wage increases in line with inflation, but could put some public sector jobs at risk. The crisis has already thrown some half-million Turks out of work.

Dervis said the economy would likely shrink by 3 percent in 2001 with inflation rising to 57.6 percent. The program targets growth of 5 percent and inflation of 16.6 percent in 2002.
Key areas of the program, including monetary and exchange rate policy and foreign backing, have not yet been announced. Dervis said Saturday that Turkey needs $10 billion to $12 billion in foreign support, adding that by next week it should be clear how much money Turkey will receive.

The IMF has said it will consider bringing forward $6.25 billion in loans already promised to Turkey, and it may offer fresh loans after talks with Turkish officials next week.
The program "will make an important contribution to re-establishing financial stability," Anatolia news agency quoted the Fund's outgoing Turkey head, Carlo Cottarelli, as saying.

In a late night telephone conversation on the eve of the program's release, Turkey's Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit reassured the IMF that his three-party coalition was united behind the plan, Turkish newspapers reported Sunday.

The U.S. Embassy in Ankara in a statement Sunday promised "to be supportive of Turkey as it moves forward" with implementing the program. Gaps in the plan make it hard to see how inflation and growth targets will be met, analysts said.

"With so many unknowns, to assess the targets at this stage requires not an economist but a fortuneteller," Mahfi Egilmez wrote in daily Radikal. He said until ministers filled in the program's details, the targets would remain "nothing more than wish-targets."

There was a broad welcome for Dervis' promise of transparent administration and for a raft of structural reforms to edge the state out of the economy and break up monopolies in the telecom and energy sectors.

"The reforms are important to secure the future instead of always saving the present day .... It's good to see the future clearly," said Sukran Ercin, a production manager in a textile company.
The decision to end political control over state banks, which have lost some $20 billion in bad loans, is "the most important decision of the past decade," said Asaf Savas Akat, a professor of economics at Istanbul's Bilgi University.

Turkey's business world, which has slammed the government's handling of the crisis, is receptive to the program, but is watching it carefully.

"Now the task rests entirely with the politicians and parliament .... The script is optimistic but the performances of the actors and director are crucial," said Zafer Caglayan, chairman of the Ankara Chamber of Industry.

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2. - Washington Post - "Turkey Unveils Economic Program to Address Crisis":

ANKARA

Turkey's new economy minister unveiled an economic recovery program today calling for privatization, banking reforms and cuts in state spending. Kemal Dervis urged disgruntled citizens to accept sacrifices and said he hoped to reach agreement on $10 billion to $12 billion in foreign aid in the next week.

"We all should tighten our belts," Dervis said at a news conference. "Don't expect me to produce policies to save us just for today. We can't dynamite our future in order to save today."

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of people demonstrated throughout the country over soaring prices, unemployment and the hardships that have befallen Turkey since the financial crisis began in February.

Forty thousand trade unionists marched through Istanbul, the commercial capital, shouting slogans denouncing Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and the International Monetary Fund, blamed by many for the country's plight. Protesters chanted "IMF equals unemployment and hunger" and "IMF go home!" Police lined the route, but the demonstration dispersed sooner than had been expected and without any of the trouble some had feared after a demonstration by 50,000 small-business owners erupted in violence Wednesday. Here in the capital, trade unions complied with a city ban on demonstrations after police said those who clashed with the state would "definitely be hurt."

Cutting state spending by 9 percent this year is the most important part of Turkey's new fiscal policy, said Dervis. The former World Bank vice president was brought into the government after it abandoned an economic reform program crafted by the IMF, including a controlled exchange rate policy, and allowed the lira to float.

Dervis said that Turkey's economy is expected to shrink by 3 percent this year but grow by 5 percent in 2002. Inflation is expected to reach 57.6 percent this year but drop to 16.6 percent in 2002, he said.

Dervis insisted that IMF-backed loans are essential for Turkey to overcome mounting debt and reform its ailing banking system, which is burdened by $20 billion in bad loans. He said he hoped international bodies would extend $10 billion to $12 billion. "I believe we will establish the basis for foreign loans . . . next week," he said. "I am very hopeful. I do not see any major difficulties."
Dervis also announced a freeze on public hiring, except in health, education and security, and no salary increases for public sector employees beyond the inflation rate.

Ugur Bayar, the head of the privatization board, said that Turkey is prepared to privatize the state-owned airline, the oil refining company and sugar factories if market conditions improve.
In a televised address moments after Dervis's news conference, Ecevit pledged his support for the program. Many analysts had questioned whether the government has the will to carry out harsh economic measures.

About 500,000 people have lost their jobs since the lira collapsed, losing 40 percent of its value. Turkish workers have complained of rising prices, and there have been repeated calls from union and business groups for the government to resign or at least shuffle the cabinet.
Although public discontent with Ecevit's government is growing, opposition parties are tainted by past scandals and crises of their own, and are poorly positioned to take advantage of the situation.

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3. - Ozgur Politika - "The crisis will be solved with democratic openings":

Ocalan said that the economic crisis being experienced in Turkey was related to the 20-year era of conflict and stressed that the only path to solution was through democratic openings. Ocalan called for a new model for efforts for democratic unity.

PKK President Abdullah Ocalan said that the economic crisis being experienced in Turkey was related to the 20-year conflict and to exploitation, and said there was a need for democratic openings in order to overcome the crisis.

In a written statement released through his attorneys, Ocalan evaluated the reasons and solutions for the economic crisis and the problem of democratic unity.

Mass struggle essential

Ocalan said that the crisis was related to history, which had become a Gordion's knot, continuing to say the following: "Profiteering was shaped upon a dirty history. The crisis is the old balance of war. The crisis flared because the war stopped. Our initiating of the peace process is related to this. No one is speaking about the real reasons for the crisis. Because we foresaw this, we did the most important thing we could do. We began the peace process."

Ocalan said that the government needed to take democratic steps and openings in order to overcome this crisis, adding that it was necessary to "approach the crisis with the demands of a democratic solution, not in an opportunist fashion." Ocalan also noted the following: "The basis must be to come out of the crisis with democratic alternatives; the sure exit path is this also. Therefore it is necessary to carry out a mass struggle that is controlled and does not allow provocations."

NP unacceptable

The PKK President criticized the fact that the word "Kurd" does not appear in Turkey's National Program, evaluating it as follows: "The program became forced; it is an unacceptable approach. There is even a situation of not lifting the language ban. It is ugly that the name of the most ancient people of history is not even mentioned."

Models of unity must come onto the agenda

Ocalan said that, despite all the assertions to the contrary, the peace process was the only correct approach, and he discussed the importance of efforts for peace as follows: "Peace requires a strong will. Peace requires strength, self confidence and control, will, deep knowledge, wisdom, and philosophy. My works on peace while inside are a thousand times more valuable than my works on war outside. I have been on this search since 1993." Ocalan stressed that the conditions in Turkey had scattered the works for democratic unity, adding that the importance of peace and democracy had not been sufficiently comprehended. He said that solutions to problems could be found through the path of democratic unity but underscored that it was necessary to bring forth the forces that could represent this. Ocalan stressed the following concerning the problem of unity: "A model of unity in which various political parties and forces have a place must come onto the agenda in Turkey, as in other countries. Sterile fights, personal concerns, and approaches of gain are not meaningful."

Law unto the end

The PKK President called attention that there could be some provocation on entering the peace process, continuing to say the following: "There might not be widespread open things as in the past in Turkey. It is known that thousands of our people were brutally murdered. There is no place for this in the law. It is necessary to carry on my courageous legal battle. Unity until the end, peace until the end, law until the end. The latest developments show us this. Streets according to the law, masses according to the law, using all of your rights, imposing this."

It won't happen without a political solution

Ocalan pointed out that the democratic republic would be the basis for the process of Turkey's restructuring and said that there must be "good leadership imposed well." The PKK President also touched on the necessity of mass movement and said there was a need for a party or block of parties which could open the path for this movement.

Ocalan continued to say the following: "The crisis must be a tool for a democratic solution. This must be accomplished with mastery. The labor movement must be close to the unions until the end. The path to the democratic movement must be opened. The problems must be considered politically and it must be realized that without a political solution, there will be no economic solution."

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4. - Kurdish Observer - "Silence is bringing death with it":

Government and Justice Ministry continue their silence in spite of dying of prisoners, calls of democratic mass organizations and shrieks of closed ones of prisoners. And this silence causes deaths to increase ever more.

News has arrived that a prisoner in F-Type (isolation cells) Prison died. As the number of people died of death fast increased to 11, Doctors Chamber and political parties asked for Justice Ministry to find an urgent solution to the problem.

Murat Coban, aged 28, who has taken to Ankara Hospital from Sincan F-Type Prison lost his life at 167th day of death fast. Body of Coban will taken to Denizli after autopsy.

His lawyer Zeki Ruzgar stated that military officials continuously denied his mother the right to stay as companion to his son in spite of the allowance of Justice Ministry. Coban has not seen his family for a long time.

Evcil was taken to Tokat

Body of Erol Evcil who died the other day was taken to Tokat. Evcil who has been in prison for 10 years was sentenced to life imprisonment.

Solution, immediately, now, today

Ankara Chamber of Physician called on Justice Ministry to stop dying. A press release held in Chamber's premises, Secretary General Tufan Kaan read the statement. Kaan said that they met with 47 detainees and convicts out of 59 prisoners who are now in Ankara Numune and Health Ministry hospitals. Kaan added that the problem should be solved immediately, today, now. Saying "Silence causes death", Kaan asked for Justice Ministry to stop death fast actions and called both sides to be sensitive.

Even if they are treated...

Neurologist Cagri Temucin stated that there would be balance and composure problems, loss of depth, memory and consciousness loss in detainees and convicts on death fast, adding "Even if they are treated, they can not remember their past knowledge. Moreover they will lost their sense to learn."

As a lot of prisoners are at the threshold of death, outside Senay Hanoglu, Canan Kulaksiz and Mehmet Ali Kanmaz are reported to die at any moment.

"Human life is the most valuable"

HADEP (People's Democracy Party) Deputy General Chairman Hamit Geylani, in a written statement, asked for Justice Ministry to change its approach to F-Type Prisons and to find a solution. Geylani said, "Today detainees and convicts are under conditions which are more grave than ever. Geylani requested that democratic demands of prisoners should be taken under consideration, asking for sorrows to be put an end.

Silent black shriek

IHD (Human Rights Association) Istanbul Branch organized a sit-in action called "silent-black shriek" in front of its premise. IHD Deputy General Chairman Kiraz Bicici said that they have organized this action twice a month before the death fast, but now the action is once a week. Biçici added that they would make a sit-in with black clothes after every death.

Protest action of DETAK

Committees of Families of Revolutionary Captives (DETAK) made a demonstration in front of French Consulate in Taksim. When demonstrators attempted to open a banner on which "Let Dungeon Be Demolished, Freedom to Captives, DETAK" is written police forces tried to obstruct them. A demonstrators out of the group marching with slogans and banners for a while was detained.

On the other hand four mothers of prisoners on death fast were dispelled from Helsinki Citizens Association violently by administrators of the association.

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5. - AFP - "Turkish prison hunger strike claims 12th victim":

ANKARA

A hunger strike lasting for months among Turkish inmates protesting controversial jail reforms claimed its 12th victim, the Turkish Human Rights Association (IHD) said Sunday.

Canan Kulaksiz, a 19-year-old university student whose uncle was in jail, died Sunday in Istanbul on the 137th day of her hunger strike in support of the prison protest, a spokesman for the IHD's Istanbul office told AFP. She died in a house where she was hunger-striking with other prisoners' relatives, the spokesman said.

The prisoners' protest began last October to protest Turkey's plans to introduce new prisons with smaller cells for up to three inmates, replacing existing jails with large dormitories housing up to 60 people. They maintain that they will be more vulnerable to mistreatment and torture when isolated in smaller units.

Between 300 and 400 inmates are on a hunger strike with some 120 of them hospitalized and a dozen reported in critical condition. On Friday, the human rights group urged the Council of Europe to put pressure on Ankara to find a solution to the hunger strike after the protest claimed its 10th victim in less than a month.

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6. - Reuters - "Military option raises its head again in Turkey":

ANKARA / by Ralph Boulton

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, 76, who will present a new economic program to tense markets later this week, insists there is no alternative to his three-party coalition. Talk of a "national consensus" or "technocrat" government, he says, only undermines his bid for foreign loans vital to overcome crisis.

On the streets, small businessmen condemn the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and urge a break with austerity measures. They planned a mass protest in Ankara on April 11, which the government said could be manipulated by Islamist militants seeking to overthrow the country's pro-western secularist order.

For their part, many at home and abroad see Ecevit as lacking the will or vigor to shake up an ossified political order and press painful IMF-backed anti-inflation plans. JP Morgan commented: "We remain unconvinced the political will is in place to implement difficult policy measures needed."

"The ground is shaking," leading industrialist Ishak Alaton told Reuters. "Nobody is buying, nobody is selling and nobody pays their dues. It is chaos now in the market."
One thing clear is that Ecevit's authority has crashed since he unleashed the crisis in February by publicly attacking the president in a row over anti-corruption policies. There is hope but no certainty that the new economic program will revive it.

"It is a reliable rule of thumb in Turkey that where civilian authority is weak, the influence of the military grows," said one western diplomat. "Publicly, they have said very little but behind the scenes their concern over squabbling in the coalition will be felt."

The military, a powerful and trusted force throughout Turkish history, has directly or indirectly overthrown four governments in 40 years at times of crisis or disorder.

It clearly does not wish to intervene today, not least because it knows from experience the strains such action can put on its own structures. But it can signal its views by comments at the military-dominated National Security Council, discreet informal advice or a public declaration.
The politicians, who remember well the army's role in edging an Islamist government from power in 1997, listen.

Trade unions have called national protests for April 14. The population is angry over a crisis that has slashed the value of the lira by 40 percent, sent prices soaring and crippled commerce, but civil society is weak and seems unlikely to coalesce into a force.

Mooted changes range from a reshuffle in the government, which could aggravate division in the three-party coalition, to an association of all five parliamentary parties. The latter, however, may prove more unwieldy than the present constellation.

The most widely touted option is a "technocrat" government.

All these line-ups, like the government of Ecevit itself, face the key problem of establishing popular legitimacy.

With the economy in dire straits, elections are out of the question. Firstly, it is unclear whether a coalition would emerge quickly. Secondly, opinion polls suggest there would be a high level of abstention, undermining any government mandate.

Alaton favors transition to a "technocrat government" and in the absence of any strong civic movement sees the source of legitimacy in transition in the gentle involvement of the "Pashas".
Alaton, head of Alarko Holding, one of Turkey's most prominent companies and known for his outspoken liberal views, does not see a coup after the manner of armed actions to overthrow governments in Turkey in 1960 and 1980.

"I think they can play the role of 'blowing the whistle', but not meddling as they did before; simply saying 'we want stability, but we want change, so here you are and don't forget you have a fantastic opportunity'," Alaton said.

"They would not try to be the medicine. They would let civil society be the medicine. If they find this balance of roles, they may be written into the history of Turkey as saviors."

Such a government could be a mixture of technocrats and parliamentary deputies. Under the constitution the prime minister would have to be a deputy.

The scenario bears some similarities to the 1970s "coup by memorandum", when a military declaration was read out over television and radio prompting premier Suleyman Demirel to step down. This crisis has deeper economic roots but none of the background of serious political violence that marked 1971.

Attila Karaosmanoglu, economic expert in a "technocrat government" installed by the army in 1971, worked in just the circumstances Alaton outlined. He would not like to see the General Staff stick its neck so far above the parapet again.

"I don't think that kind of technician government has a much better chance than a government that comes from parliament," he said. "Even if it brings together the best technicians, it must have organic contacts and relations with the general public.

"Unless you have the general public behind you, you cannot act. They may applaud you at first, but it is not enough."

The generals would also, presumably, have their fears here. The General Staff might be effective in winning initial support for a change in government but could quickly find itself shoring up an administration still more unpopular and indecisive.

Any outward appearance of the military holding sway would also go down badly in the West, where support is needed. The dilemmas mount.

Karaosmanoglu expressed sympathy for economy chief Kemal Dervis, drafted by Ecevit to tackle the crisis.

"The hardships Kemal Dervis faces are more serious than those that I faced," he said, referring to the frequent notes of discord in the coalition over key measures he is promoting in areas such as privatization and banking reform.

"When you start dealing with very important structural problems like land reform, tax reform and government structure, of course you meet with the resistance of quite powerful interest groups."